President Trump has established a baseline 10 percent tariff on nearly all imports. Additionally, the White House announced plans for reciprocal tariffs on 57 countries. A week later, on April 9, the administration then paused these reciprocal tariffs for 90 days.
We don’t know if the reciprocal tariffs will take effect after July 9. What is certain is that in addition to the 10% baseline tariff, there is a 25% tariff targets car imports and most goods from Canada and Mexico, and a staggering 125% tariff is in place on most Chinese imports. Some of my conservative friends like to imply that tariffs are part of a cunning plan to eliminate the federal income tax. They point out that until 1913 America did not have a federal income tax, and the federal government was largely funded by tariffs. Now I’m all in favor of eliminating income taxes, and I spent much of the last legislative session in Mississippi advocating for the repeal of our state income tax. But the numbers don’t add up for replacing the federal income tax with tariffs. To generate the $2.6 trillion annually that the income tax provides, tariffs would need to average 127% on all imports (even accounting for an estimated 20% drop in import volume). Do that and only rich folk will be able to shop at Walmart. Others have told me that we need these tariffs to protect American industry against offshoring and the loss of American jobs overseas. Really? US output today is close to three times higher than it was when LBJ was President. US factories make almost twice as much stuff as they did when Ronald Reagan left the White House. The growth in US industrial output happened while tariffs declined from 6- 8 percent in 1969 to about 2 percent by 2010 (with a slight increase by 2020 due to higher tariffs on China). It is true that the number of manufacturing jobs in America has fallen, as manufacturing output has risen. But that is because fewer workers in industry are able to make more. The same thing happened in farming a century before. The loss of farming or manufacturing jobs has not made Americans poorer. It means Americans went and found work in better paying jobs.
That’s why the total number of jobs in America has risen despite the fact that the proportion of Americans working in manufacturing has fallen. There were 70 million proportion of Americans working in manufacturing has fallen. There were 70 million jobs in 1969 and there are 160 million jobs today. So much for free trade taking away our jobs. “But what about China?” some say America should be worried about China. It’s alarming that China’s Jiangnan Shipyard builds more ships in a single year than all U.S. shipyards combined. It’s concerning that China produces more drones in a day than the U.S. does in a year. But if China is our primary concern, why hit countries like Vietnam, South Korea, and India—potential competitors to China—with crippling tariffs? Tariffs won’t eliminate the federal income tax, reverse a supposed industrial decline, or solve the question of how to deal with an aggressive China. What they will do is make you poorer and America less competitive. Consider your cell phone. Apple has already stated that tariffs will increase its costs by nearly $1 billion this quarter alone. That extra cost? It’s coming out of your pocket when you buy your next iPhone. To dodge new tariffs on Chinese goods, Apple is shifting much of its manufacturing from China to India. Don’t expect new iPhone factories in Mississippi or Michigan—think Madras instead. Ironically, the high-value work on smart phone production—the design, software, and chips—is already done in the U.S. Tariffs will simply move low-value assembly from one Asian nation to another, leaving you to foot the bill. My big fear this that tariffs won’t just be seen as having triggered an economic downturn. By doing so they will overshadow all those other conservative wins. During my recent trip to Washington, several administration insiders suggested that the current tariff strategy is part of a broader plan. They claim tariffs are being used as leverage to dismantle restrictions on U.S. exports to other countries. Whether or not this was the original intent, I hope it becomes the retrospective rationale. For instance, if a close ally like the UK, which runs a trade deficit with the U.S., agreed to eliminate all its tariffs and allow any product sold in America to be sold in the UK, the U.S. could respond in kind. Such a trade agreement with the UK could set a precedent, encouraging other allies—Japan, India, Australia—to follow suit. The result might be the complete removal of trade barriers between the U.S. and its allies. That’s the optimistic scenario. The alternative is higher costs for everyone, leaving us all poorer. Douglas Carswell is the President and CEO of the Mississippi Center for Public Policy. MCPP sponsored this post.
45 comments:
Be patient grasshopper, be patient.
Well, you’re just a RINO cuck loser beta male!
Under Dear Leader’s tariff regime, we will have glorious wheat harvests with the five year plan!
Free market economics are for sissies!
Troll alert!!!
Shelf will be empty in 2 months.
Attempting to comment on tariff policy while it's still in the sausage making stage is a fool's errand, Douglas. Just sit back and enjoy the ride until the deals are done. Give it a quarter (or two) to see the effects, and THEN you can start pontificating!
Until then, zip it.
Every dire tHe sKy iS fALLiNg prediction made over the last 6 years has been ridiculous hyperbole. With the exception of shortages caused by rona panic and wealth redistribution democrat schemes, it is never as bad as the fear porn tells us it will be.
If it works we will hail the great leader as our savior and redeemer. If it fails we will hail the great leader as our savior and redeemer who could not overcome the Dems and Rinos. Either way it's a win-win. So lets go tariffs!
2 more weeks
We couldn’t even supply face masks during Covid. Sorry your ox is getting gored this time. Perhaps you should have experienced a job loss due to NAFTA to understand.
Ditto, 11:45
Mr. Carswell is in sync with the Wall Street Journal. Tarrific Trump is taking the US off the rails for no good reason. The GOP should stay focused on ending Wokeism and reducing the national debt. As it is, most Republicans are shaming themselves by browning their noses in Trump's netherlands. America is doing fine, except that we're way too busy finding reasons to dislike each other. Cue "America the Beautiful": now sing it loud and sing it proud.
It seems like everyone is economist these days. All I know is that as long as El Jefe is swinging the economic sledge hammer at trade deals and government agencies, I better learn to live on less. I don't know exactly who will win the current econowar, but I know who will lose: the middle class. How do I know? The middle class always loses.
It is the rich elite that hate Trump's policies while telling the middle and lower classes to trust them because they know best. Yet the middle and lower classes know that Trump 45 was very good for them. Trump 47 will be very good as well, much to the chagrin of the rich Dems and Rinos who want to keep all the money for themselves.
Government people, including opinion writers are usually clueless as to how “negotiations” work. If the “know it all’s” (especially the leftist media and Democrat pols that are actually rooting against the betterment of our country via Trump failing) would just STFU, negotiations could move quicker and be more effective.
But no, Trump has to not only negotiate with the world that’s been f’ing us for decades, along with their super-rich partners get super-richer off of child, slave, and poverty wages labor, he’s got to deal with the s__t eaters offering their opinions as to why this or that won’t work – without offering any solutions.
Nobody but liberal arts grads believe this is about bringing sock factories back to the US. So as Scott Bessent recently quoted T Roosevelts famous “It is not the critic who counts,” if you have no solutions to our unsustainable deficit (1.8 trillion in 2024), read the entire Roosevelt quote. Then, maybe you can either offer up a solution, or STFU.
P.S. The US had income tax rates above 90% after WWII – because the nation wasn’t as full of s__t eaters more concerned with their next Learjet or next yacht than they were with not leaving a mountain of debt to the future next generations.
Damn 1:43, he's certainly gotten you fooled. You think that the "middle and lower classes' came out better under 45? And now you think they will do better under 47 and the "rich Dems and Rinos" will lose?
Need to check your gun at the door, friend, and look around. Its the RICH Trumps and their buddies that are gaining under these terms, which does include the rich Dems because they are buddies regardless of their political leanings.
The middle class is currently taking the beating and its going to get nothing but worse. Lower not so bad because they didn't have as far to fall, and they do have the safety nets available to catch them.
But everything that has been done over the past 100 plus a few days has been to the benefit of Trump, his family, his businesses, the Saudis, Elon, and now his new best buds that jumped in and financed his gala inaugurals - Bezos, Gates, et al. Plus, of course, all the crypto giants that have sucked so many into their game as well which of course Donald couldn't pass up as he created his own there as well to suck in more of the Red Hat gang's extra cash.
EVERY country in the WORLD survived just fine while having tarriffs placed on imports from the USA but suddenly we (the only nation to put humans on the moon) are going to collapse because we are UTTERLY INCAPABLE of surviving without Chinese crap?
it sounds to me like the JUICE will be worth the SQUEEZE if we can teach the current generations the importance of NOT exporting all of our manuafacturing to a country that was creating its own famines and aborting all of its daughters just 40 years ago.
China is bending the knee, hard: https://www.reuters.com/world/inside-chinas-decision-come-table-trump-tariffs-2025-05-09/
BEIJING, May 9 (Reuters) - Since U.S. President Donald Trump imposed steep tariffs on China last month, Beijing has responded in kind. On state and social media, it posted images of Mao Zedong, lambasted "imperialists," and sent a message: capitulation to bullies is dangerous, and it wouldn't back down.
But behind closed doors, Chinese officials have grown increasingly alarmed about tariffs' impact on the economy and the risk of isolation as China's trading partners have started negotiating deals with Washington, according to three officials familiar with Beijing's thinking.
We also don't need 2.6 trillion dollars in annual revenue. We don't have a revenue problem, we have a spending problem
To tariff, or not to tariff, isn't the question. The question is how does the United States meet its debt obligation. Boys, and girls, that is a question that cannot be avoided. When interest alone is one trillion a year, we will drown in debt.
If charging tariffs is so bad for a country why are the other countries charging tariffs on the U.S.? We have had stupid politicians running the country so long that all of the other countries know they can take advantage of us. Just slip the president's family a few millions and go on screwing the American people has been the practice for too long. It is time to let a business man make a few decisions. He has made money for himself which is something no other president has done. They just steal from the people who elect them.
There is no middle class.
pray tell how the trade imbalance btwn US and China was ever fair and why nothing should be done about it
I don’t give a single damn about what leftist and RINO wonks and pundits are saying. The citizens of the world are envious of our leaders. So much so that nations are moving to suppress any right-wing/populist movements that resemble Trump. And of course, the entire Catholic world is celebrating the election of the first AMERICAN POPE!
Holy crap CNN was playing at the airport during the announcement and the female CNN host just couldn’t believe the Catholics didn’t hate the USA enough to stop them from electing an American pope. It was bizarre.
Trump has a hard job trying to get our country out of the pit the politicians have put us in. Then he has to fight with the democrats who will do anything to make his job harder. They are willing to harm our own country just to make Trump fail. Imagine any politicians who would put our citizens in harms way and make life here much more difficult just to get back at Trump.
2:41 is shilling for the elites. Trump's highest ethnics support group are Hispanics (see recent Rasmusen poll). Trump got the most support from blacks of any GOP candidate ever. But the Dems and Rinos keep saying that inflation is not bad. Adding 12 million illegals to the neighborhoods of the poor and middle class is a good thing. The only time these rich tolerate illegals in their neighborhoods is when they cut grass, clean toilets and fix a roof. The liberal rich never suffer the consequences of their flawed ideas. It is the poor and middle classes that pay the price. That is why Trump is the man of the people. The Dems call poor and middle class chumps, dregs, irredeemables and garbage. Trump calls them supporters.
When you, @3:44 buy a brisket at Costco, have you incurred a “trade deficit” with that warehouse store?
If so, does that mean you’ve attained a “goods surplus” vis-a-vis Costco?
Of course not.
Then again, like your president, you don’t understand simple economics. Like your president, you see the economy as a zero-sum game. Which is — wait for it — effing stupid.
Your president was a registered Democrat till 2013. And his philosophy on trade is to the Left of Bernie Sanders.
But y’all OWN THE LIBS.
It’s so stupid. It boggles the (rational) mind.
Not a big fan of MCPP but they are right about this one. The whole definition of conservative has been turned on its head. "We" used to be all about open and free markets and unbridled capitalism. We are America, and we don't need protectionism.
I would not worry too much about tariffs being a long term problem. As is the case most of the time it’s all smoke and mirrors. Trump ready to cave . The deal with the UK was the absolute easiest deal to be made. It really amounts to a 0, in fact it gives the UK an advantage when it comes to imported autos.
Look at this in same light as deportations, after the dust settles he won’t deport over 500k, Biden did 650k last year.
Your comparisons are ridiculous and indicate you do not understand economics or history.
There was no global economy nor were the populations or products traded even similar. China was ruled by Mao and the Soviet Union was still intact and Germany was divided during Reagan's administration. We were at war during the Bush administration. And, we still had good relationships with our neighbors and with Europe.
Frankly, you are making those you represent look foolish.
May 9, 2025 at 11:52 PM - A zero sum game is a level playing field, which is a good start. They should be applying the same approach to the Federal budget. Politicians are shitty lawyers trying to pretend they're economists. If the Republicans don't push a balanced budget amendment through while they have advantage, then they're as full of shit as the Democrats.
Look at this in same light as deportations, after the dust settles he won’t deport over 500k, Biden did 650k last year
I don’t recall any lower federal court activist judges thwarting Obama’s or Biden’s lawful deportation. Similar to how Obama started putting kids in cages and the media ignored the practice it until Trump was elected and they went hysterical.
careful pholx. 11:52 PM graduated from Reddit University 🤓🔖
You people advocating massive new taxes (that’s what tariffs are, dullards) probably call yourselves “conservatives,” too.
LOL. This is a Bernie Sanders economic regime, clowns.
That’s it Obama & Biden did it lawfully , they didn’t try to ship folks out in the middle of the night without due process. Imagine that , just think about it, they were not trying hard and they shipped more than Trump annually. Trump should be able to do 2 million , just follow the law, isn’t that what republicans have said, it shouldn’t be necessary to bend/break laws. If you think so, Get congress to change them, you have the majority, if not the mandate .
@3:00 PM illegals dont have rights. in a sane world we wouldn’t have to deal with challenges to this universally accepted fact. No other sane nation pretends illegals have rights. That’s like saying a midnight burgler has a right to not get his head blown off by my 12 gauge. He gave up his right to life when he broke into my home. Illegals are thieves stealing resources from native born citizens. Only traitors believe they have rights.
Trump is not asking for massive new tariffs. He is only asking for equal tariffs. How is it that some people are asking for our government to pay tariffs but do not want the U.S. to do the same. I can never get an why tariffs are so great for other countries and so bad for the U.S.
Are you sure you are not letting your hate of Trump cause you to harm the U.S. Is it worth it?
You must not understand the laws of the US. “Only traitors believe they have rights” That sounds like something right out of the Goons of Rankin mouths.
As long as you have idiots that can't regurgitate anything, but orange man bad, we will not thrive as a people.
Hey, all you MAGAt “conservatives!”
It’s not enough that Dear Leader wants to raise prices with tariffs. He’s now “looking at” suspending the writ of habeas corpus. Taking a $400 million bribe from Qatar won’t bother you drones, either.
Instituting the first price controls since Nixon (who did it with the help of a Democrat-controlled Congress, mind you) via executive order won’t bother you, either.
Because Fox News has convinced you rubes that tariffs aren’t taxes. You’ll believe anything a fat, makeup-wearing Yankee says.
It’s a cult. You’re in a cult.
https://www.mediaite.com/trump/fairness-to-america-trump-announces-executive-order-to-slash-prescription-drug-prices-by-30-to-80/
KF - any chance you could tag Lee Greenwood’s greatest (only) hit to play whenever this comment thread is opened? As in, soundtrack form?
Because I’m proud to be an American, where at least I know we’re brain-free.
Orange man Caved once again , China told him take it and be quiet. No Vaseline !
@8:59
It was actually quite different than your deranged delusions. China literally begged us to keep them from collapsing. They agreed to all of our demands and more. And Trump and his secretary are graciously allowing them to save face. Trump won again.
If you would learn what really happened you will see where you are badly mistaken. China has lowered the tariff on U.S. products just like Trump told them to do. We now charge China a higher tariff than they do the U.S. And they are very happy to pay. I know it is hard for some democrats to learn how to do business. If you would only set back and watch what is really happening you would some valuable information. Let the man do what he knows best and what very few democrats understand.
It’s a roll back to what it was before Liberation day ! !
@11:48 we rolled back to the pre-liberation day tarrifs. China lowered their tarrifs against us across the board.
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