I like to apply free market analysis to American politics. Within established laws, politicians compete for votes and are rewarded for maximizing voters' preferences. As in economics, there are sometimes market failures, but mostly the system seems to be self-regulating.
This sounds nice, but it doesn't seem to describe what's been happening over the past five or so years. Both parties seem to be ignoring voters' clear signals. Neither seems to be rationally maximizing its votes and its chances of winning presidential elections or congressional majorities.
National Democrats have indeed won the popular vote in six of the last seven presidential elections, but they in only four did they have comfortable Electoral College majorities. Hillary Clinton lost 46 crucial electoral votes to Donald Trump by 77,736 votes in three states in 2016. In 2020, Joe Biden won 27 crucial electoral votes by an even smaller 42,918 votes.
Democrats' positions on issues have given them a large electorate largely clustered in central cities, sympathetic suburbs and university towns. That puts them at a disadvantage in the Electoral College and in congressional and legislative contests in equal-population districts, because Republican voters are spread more evenly around the rest of the country.
Republicans' position is no stronger. In four White House years, Donald Trump failed to make significant net gains as other re-elected Republican presidents (Eisenhower, Nixon, Reagan, George W. Bush) did. Trump's claims that he somehow won the 2020 election "in a landslide" might have more moral standing if he had not trailed Biden by 7 million popular votes.
Trump did make gains among demographic groups over previous Republican presidential nominees -- among non-college whites in 2016, and among Hispanics in 2020. But his percentage of the popular vote went up by 0.9%.
Neither party's pols or primary voters have paid much heed to these signals.
But Democrats haven't done much to win marginal constituencies beyond their base. Their politicians and primary voters have moved sharply to the left over the 15 years, as the liberal blogger Kevin Drum, citing Pew Research data, argues. The Biden administration has ratified this leftward movement, proposing federal takeover of elections, repeal of the 1996 welfare reform, the highest tax rates since the 1970s and explicit racial preferences in farmer aid and small business relief. Biden's immigration policy is essentially open borders, and he downplays equality of opportunity in favor of equality of results ("equity").
Most Biden proposals are in predictable trouble given Democrats' thin (51-50, 222-213) margins in Congress and their unpopularity among voters. To which Democrats' response is, "let's change the system." Abolish the Senate filibuster. Pass statehood for the District of Columbia and -- although half its voters have opposed it for years -- Puerto Rico. Pack the Supreme Court.
Previous presidents (Dwight Eisenhower, Bill Clinton) modified their parties' policies after it took shellackings in election after election. Biden and Democratic congressional leaders seem bent on pushing as many unpopular policies as possible, as long as their tenuous majorities last.
That may be a while if Trump continues to dominate the political landscape. Trump can claim some unique policy successes -- tax cuts and immigration policies that channeled economic gains disproportionately to low-wage workers, development and approval of COVID vaccines months before "experts" thought possible.
But his non-credible insistence that he won the 2020 election combines his solipsism with rear-view-mirror vision -- an election-losing formula. True, Democrats like Hillary Clinton, who supported Georgia Democrat Stacey Abrams's claim she won in 2018, are not well-positioned to criticize him. Nor are Democrats and journalists who spent two years hyping the Russia collusion hoax well-positioned to charge he's pushing conspiracy theories.
It's not clear how many Republicans see their party as a Trump party and how many think it might do better in 2024 by nominating a candidate younger than 78 who can salute Trump's political and policy successes unburdened by his personal baggage.
Will either party start responding rationally to signals in the political marketplace any time soon? The signs are not propitious. Consider Democrats' anguished attacks on state voting law changes as "voter suppression" -- even though nonpartisan research shows they have little effect on turnout.
Georgia, for example, has seen record turnout increases, and national turnout as the percentage of eligible voters in 2020 was the highest since 1900. New York City, with election laws much more restrictive than those Democrats criticize, just recorded its the second highest (after 1989) mayoral primary turnout primary in history, and the (anti-police-defunding) nominee was the choice of most Black voters.
Democrats have been allowing players with adolescent mindsets to determine their policies, and Republicans have been embracing a leader with adolescent behavior control problems. It's time for the parties to grow up and pay attention to the signals and cues voters are sending them in the political marketplace.
Michael Barone is a senior political analyst for the Washington Examiner, resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and longtime co-author of The Almanac of American Politics.
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16 comments:
The sad fact is both parties need their loony fringes to win and are having to appease them to "get out" their votes. I don't know the answer but am beginning to see it probably won't be worked out in my lifetime without a major upheaval of some sort. Could well mean the end of this great nation as we know it.
Say what you want or believe what you will but what the democrats pulled in the last four years was nothing short of an attempted coup. Endless and worthless investigations that spent taxpayers money like heroine addicts on a permanent binge. And then of course Biden, an absolutely hollow vessel that hid in his basement and failed to answer a single question won by seven million votes. Bullshit. And at last we see the damage these clowns are doing to the country. CRT, Immigration, and taxes that will most probably push the United States closer to civil war than ever before. Democrats are hell bent on destroying America as it is and putting all that disagree in prison. The new age brown shirts.
This time he's right on the money!
Mr. Barone has spent too much time finding ways to justifies his philosophical views and to little reading the economic histories of pandemics and the demise of republics and democracies.
The irony is that few of the wealthy, educated supporters and philosophical justifiers of a one strong man, one party system will survive the aftermath.
Your loyalty won't matter.Your wealth will be political spoils and your intellect a threat.
That will be more true with our demise than in the past. The ways in which the few wealthy families and intellectuals survived in the past are no longer available.
When you've let the irrational lose on society, you can't cage them with rational defenses and pleas of loyalty. They want your " stuff". Their position as " immoral enforcers" is more important until they become " inconvenient" by achieving too much personal loyalty.
And, China or Russia will come in if they can . If we haven't made the country uninhabitable.
Barone's analysis is blunt and accurate though he overlooks some regional power shifts away from rabid leftists and towards successful conservatives.
The brutal effects of flawed Democrat economics, governors, mayors, prosecutors, crime, teachers' unions, racist apartheid theories, arson and riots change hearts neighborhood by neighborhood.
These thousands of Lilliputian tugboats can turn Congress in '22 and can elect DeSantis in '24.
Contrariwise, Jackson, where voters have accepted corruption and degeneracy as normal, may be lost.
Hey 11:02 what’s wrong with CRT, are you afraid of people really learning about slavery, Jim Crow and the Klan? I bet you one of those guys that believes the south won and Lee should have been president.
Barone or other political analyst should uncover the puppet masters and mechanical trix manipulating that houseplant of a president.
Some suspect it's Obama and his cronies since Obama publicly said about 9 months ago he was open to doing it behind the scenes.
Biden's masculinity is so fragile and his psyche such a void, all it'd take is Obama telling him: "Joey, you'll be an historic legendary leader if you go big and bold for a progressive coup. My people will help your people pull it off, we'll be there 24-7 for you Joey, go have a nap."
Hey 11:53
Is CRT gonna teach the truth about who rounded up and captured the slaves to be sold ?
There is no hope for the clown who actually believes the goal of CRT is to educate children on the realities of slavery and Jim Crow. The goal is to plant a seed of self-loathing in every child who is not black and to plant a seed of superiority in every child who is not white. If I'm not mistaken that's pretty close to what happened in the rebellions of South Africa. Is Obama our Mandella?
Just like most things in Academia CRT is late the under 40 year old crowd has a keen understanding of the racist that prevailed before them. They are the folks living in the suburbs today and they aren’t buying what you here on the number one TV channel. It’s a lost cause guys the progressive force is unstoppable. We had our chance at it.
Does anyone actually believe critical race theory is a winning strategy for Republicans? They are going to have to start coming up with a plan to tackle some real issues or they will continue to become even more irrelevant nationally.
At 1:02 I have no problem with facts, seems like some of you would want them ignored. As many like to say they weren’t here they didn’t do it . Thats find too, here again what are you afraid of. If something contributes to the ills of society, don’t you want to have basic knowledge about it? History is all about facts, some we can be proud of, some we can’t , but we shouldn’t ever hide from them either.
In the 50’s Black women weren’t allowed in bridal shops.
They weren’t allowed to sit at counters or front of bus, stay at hotels, drink from water fountains, or marry white people. Their neighborhoods were red-lined and blighted by highways.
But teaching this history freaks some people out.
Ah, yes, the past, is just that, no more and no less, the past. What is meant by the word past? Dictionary.com says it means gone by, elapsed in time, bygone. The meaning is clear, whatever is in the past doesn't exist anymore. Then we can safely say that the past cannot exist in the present, because it is gone by.
It is the fool that doesn't want history taught, remembered, and learned from, the fool. That means "All" history. The good, the bad, the ugly. The practice of slavery, yes teach about that, all of it, name everyone involved. Don't forget to teach how it came to an end. Teach that ending part hard, neighbor, because that part came with great sacrifice.
Teach about Jim Crow, recount all the laws that were in place during that "time" to discriminate against people of color. Don't leave any of it out, teach it "all". Don't forget to teach how the Klan enforced those racist laws of that "time" and their vicious dealings with people of color during that "time". Don't forget to teach how decent men and women were moved to change those laws and not to tolerate the evil of the Klan. Teach it "all".
Teach, also, that not one action today will change one action from the past, not one. Here in lies the ignorance of critical race theory. Slavery doesn't exist, now. That was in the past. That was brought to an end by the sacrifice of hundreds of thousands of lives, slavery is in the past. Jim Crow was brought to an end, those laws don't exist, now. Jim Crow is in the past. The Klan, those night riding cowards, that covered their faces, they don't enforce those laws, now. That's in the past. Their hatred isn't tolerated, now. That happened in the past. The one thing we know, the past cannot exist in the present. None of those things from the past, are excepted by this nation and decent people today, in the present.
We are talking about the ignorance of critical race theory. Those true believers that claim the high moral ground. Those that are more self-righteous because they "see" the evil heart of others that have the audacity to disagree with their pure, righteous, doctrine. We are talking about the double barreled hypocrites that claim to be protecting the rights of one group, while violating the rights of others. Two wrongs have never made a right, but these people don't care about right, or wrong. Is there injustice in the world? Yes, there will always be injustice as long as the human race survives, but this nation is on the right track.
America, the land of promise. That's what I see. Who is the promise for? Anyone that is willing to work, plan, and sacrifice, regardless of skin color. The true promise of America can't be realized until people stop living in the past. The past is gone and cannot live in the present.
The United States is like a drug addict. Things are going to have to get a lot worse before they get better. Not everyone will be able to make it through the cure. That is the way it should be.
We have been the country where the weak has been given a chance. It worked very well. Now the weak are in the majority. The strong will have to take back our country.
"There is no hope for the clown who actually believes the goal of CRT is to educate children on the realities of slavery and Jim Crow. The goal is to plant a seed of self-loathing in every child who is not black and to plant a seed of superiority in every child who is not white. If I'm not mistaken that's pretty close to what happened in the rebellions of South Africa. Is Obama our Mandella?"
Its folks like this that are literally painting themselves into a corner when it comes to CRT
CRT will give educators an opportunity to get deeper into the context of racism/racial issues in this country. In other words, the North will get held accountable for its level of racism too during the civil war era. There were northerners that were practically fine with the institution of slavery as well and were willing to turn a blind eye to it in order to maintain the union.
Hell, some of Mississippi's original residents were northern transplants that started slave plantations.
As well there were white Mississippians that actually fought in the Union Army as well. The numbers were not massive, but there is evidence.
But based on the current narrative taught in schools - North is good, south is bad. CRT examines all that stuff and makes students study the nuance of racial issues.
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