Jackson Jambalaya

The Rt of 1.0 just means we have stabilized at one of the highest infection rates in the nation. Washington Post has us at #5 for infections and a very clear, runaway #1 for mortality. We need the Rt to be way below 1.0 for a long time before we are even average.

Hospitalization and ICU usage are at or near record levels which means deaths will remain high for at least a couple of more weeks even if the infection rate starts to drop. And the deaths are affecting regular people more frequently as only 34% of deaths in the past month have been from long term care facilities.

The community spread is far from over. I hope I'm wrong, but I'm betting with many schools opening this week and next we'll see the Rt heading back up relatively quickly and that will be followed by overwhelming hospitalizations, ICU and deaths as it makes its way back to grandma at home.

When will the suffering be enough to convince Tate to close the schools and cut out sports at least until spring?

Thank you Dr. Anonymous. So glad we have the real world experts on this site. I no longer listen to Saint Anthony.

“It is what it is.”

@4:19 you forgot to tell us to shave our heads so the virus don't get in our hair.

We're all still gonna die someday, Covid or whatever else they come up with. Wonder how many Mississippians have died of other problems during this period of time. Oh well, that is not a question for the Covid will kill you every time crowd now is it.

If the vaccine is likely to be ready by the end of this year or early next year, are we really so impatient and shortsighted that we’ll sacrifice several tens of thousands of lives for a few months of life as normal? IHME is now predicting about 300k dead in the US by the end of November. We keep wanting to turn the page without finishing this one. School openings will be reversed in a month or so. There’s no way you can intersect so many distinct social groups without dramatically increasing infections. I know it’s an impossible situation for everybody, so I cast no judgment on anyone. It’s just a sad mess.

Must be all those cheap Chinese surgical masks with all the gaps near the temples, cheeks and chin we’ve been wearing to Kroger. Masks help us! In masks we trust!

There is no vaccine coming for the general public in the next year. We have to live life and stop letting the virus dictate how we live.

Vaccine yackcine. Saw some charts the other day, you know those statistical thingies. Funny how it showed flu impact suddenly nosedive at the same time that covid spiked. Maybe just a typical (and coincidental) seasonal drop in flu. I don't know, but a curious phenomenon nonetheless.

"The Rt of 1.0 just means...." nothing much. It isn't a discreet calculated number, it is a subjective estimate. Depending on where you look, you'll find some expressed as an "Rt number" and some as a range. I looked at a couple of sites that provide numbers and saw 1.0 and 1.06. Granted, if the person creating the number or range uses reasonable assumptions, it shouldn't be some wildly ridiculous result, but 5 reasonable people making reasonable assumptions would likely come up with 5 different results. Since no one actually knows how many total cases there are in Mississippi, only the total reported positive tests, there isn't any way to calculate how many unknown people were or were not infected by unknown number of people.

I have no idea why KF seems set upon posting "the number" from whatever site it is from, but it is his choice.

844, you don't have to tell us that 'you don't know'. That's obvious by what you are questioning.

The flu season is Oct thru May. It drops every year at summertime.

Get that - the flu drops when summer gets here. The COVID spike you mention began in mid- June.

So coincidence as you wonder how when we had a spike in COVID there was a drop in flu cases? Hell no - the drop in flu was due to the calendar. Had nothing to do with COVID; just as there is no relationship between flu deaths and COVID; no correlation between flu treatments and COVID; and no relationship between occurances of polio, or mumps, or broken legs, or anything else with COVID.

But thanks for clarifying for us the obvious - that you " don't know "

Look at the State of Mississippi and theirs a lot of "I don't know"!

Jackassery here in north mississippi:

https://www.wtva.com/content/news/Final-Back-To-School-Party-for-2021-graduating-class-in-Saltillo-572030931.html

Some comments:

Testing positive does not mean "infection". Moreover, these tests are too variable. The GOV of Ohio tested positive several days ago. He retested in a few days and tested negative. Now he has to take a third test.

Secondly the number of "infections" are far underrated. The number of hospitalizations and ICU occupancies are very inaccurate given the inaccuracy of testing and diagnoses.

Waiting for a vaccine?? Forget it. They will have several by the end of the year. The political pressure is enormous. Efficacy will be sacrificed.
By the way after decades of research the efficacy of the flu vaccine is 24-41% in adult. (Up to 61% in kids.) CDC data.

Finally a recent article in JAMA (Journal of the AMA) showed that passive
treatment with immune plasma was ineffective.

Media hype and politics have marred the ability to determine the true incidence and prevalence of the virus. Mortality remains high in the old and individuals with preexisting conditions.

Sorry about these facts; you are going to make up your minds because you want to, not because science will make you.

8:52 - Very astute. Unfortunately that will fly right by most people.

I wonder if some of the memories those parents don't want their kids to miss include burying grandma next month. That party was pure selfish inconsideration.

9:04. Would Grandma have died anyway from something else than, dare I say, Covid. We and you don't know that do we. Flu and/or Covid could/can be interchangeable names as far as I'm concerned. Both affect the respiratory system and both can kill, albeit Flu is probably more severe, in my humble opinion. Regardless, this to shall pass. Have faith in that. Now, that Asteroid headed our way.....

Saw Dr. Dobbs interviewed on PBS. Poor guy is obviously frustrated with how little Mississippians have done to control the spread. He also doesn't think we are ready to reopen schools with the extremely high infection rate and uncontrolled community spread. The case numbers and positivity rate need to be much lower for us to be able to timely identify and isolate outbreaks in the schools.

He practically begged Mississippians to stop going to weddings, picnics, parties, and other gatherings where the spread is happening, particularly in the 18-30 year old group.

He said he does expect to see an effective vaccine out of the ones currently in trials and if we can hold off on spreading activities we should be able to save lives and return to normal sometime in the first half of 2021. Based on the previous demand for the H1N1 vaccine he expects most people will choose to take the COVID vaccine.

Check out the mortality chart on the MDHS website. It is taking off like a rocket. We're still paying for the July 4 parties. Bury your head in the sand if you want, but at this rate we will see 50+ deaths per day into October as the school openings, Labor Day gatherings, and spectator sports spread the disease far and wide.

More data just to help to put this in perspective.

Total mortality in the US in 2018 per million population from ages 25-84
220/1000 Source: CDC
Total mortality as of today for all patients of any age who were diagnosed with corona:
0.5/1000 Source: worldometer

People die from a lot of things. I excluded mortality from very young and very old ages. One could say that people dying from corona should be added to the total figures. First, it would not make a great deal of statistical significance and second, many in the categories from 65-84 would have died anyway from other illnesses, trauma, etc. Remember too that death certificates are notoriously variable and there is a institutional financial bias that we can discuss later on...maybe. Bye-bye

I fully expect to get it. It has gone from I don't know anyone who has it to now I know a lot who have tested positive. So I fully expect to get it or most likely already have had it, just asymptomatic. So with that said, I have been on Zinc and Vitamin D since mid May, working out, losing weight, etc. Trying to boost my immune system. I wish we were talking more about how to survive this.

Since most people acquire the virus from close contact (e.g., agricultural/poultry; restaurants/bars; healthcare facilities), close restaurants and bars and we will see the numbers drop.

Hard to tell if a vaccine will work. The ones being tested have produced good antibody titers. But I am 50:50 on whether they will protect against severe disease.

1:46 Dr. Dobbs singled out bars as being tied to outbreaks. Nothing about restaurants. Apparently the worst places for spread are things like weddings, funerals, and private parties where people who are comfortable with each other tend to ignore masks and social distancing. I don't know how to regulate that, it ultimately depends on personal responsibility which is something very lacking here in Mississippi.

If the death numbers for covid would double it would be close to the number of pewople who dies in a year because of medical mistakes.
We may get a shot for covid in the future but we will not get a shot to prevent doctors from accidentally killing us.

You have a much higher risk of some doctor killing you than you have of covid killing you. Just another reason for doctors to wear masks.

@10:47, I’ll cut a deal with Dr. Knob, if he will fight me, sanctioned bout, 3 rounds (or tko/ko) I’ll not only delay my wedding but I’ll take the infertility/testosterone killer/cancer causing/autism/paralysis/chip/GAVI-Mastercard payment/ vaccine and encourage my family and friends to as well.

"A recent Johns Hopkins study claims more than 250,000 people in the U.S. die every year from medical errors."

We don't need for COVID numbers to double to reach that number. We'll be over 300,000 by December 1 according to the IHME. At the rate things are going we'll hit 400,000 by the anniversary of the first U.S. death on February 29.