Jackson Jambalaya

Updated from yesterday & day before post:

I went back and looked at the day to day percentages starting with the initial confirmed case on Mar 11. It looks like we are seeing MS's numbers _begin_ to line up with USA overall (9.7%) daily rate.

300%
25%
100%
20%
67%
70%
47%
60%
75%
48%
20%
29%
18%
29%
19%
15%
14%
12%
11% (3-30-2020)
15% (3-31-2020)

Sort of splitting the difference here, but around 13% looks reasonable for now. If this continues to hold, I would expect to see the following over the next 5 days.

847
957
1,081
1,221
1,379

There is a bottom limit, a mathematical asymptote, that we will not go below. Where that is remains to be seen. Also to note, even if/when MS gets to 10% daily rate, that still means just under 1k new confirmed each day by end of April.

Any model has trouble hitting a moving target. At least MS daily numbers are dropping. It's important to find new ways to not spread this thing. Stay home. Wipe down door handles. Etc.

Even at 10% daily rate, it covers the whole state by June 30.

Another miss for BTE's revised, revised, revised model.

He's anti-Trump, he's anti-Reeves, he's a control freak who wants a statewide lockdown and a heavy authoritarian government hand.

His agenda is clear. He's a troll whose only interest is in scaring readers with dire predictions of impending doom, gloom and death.

AND he's as anonymous as everyone else here despite he's whining about anonymity.

Doubt me? Go back a week or so and read all of his garbage comments.

@10:52 Fact's don't care about your feelings.
Fact: infections continue
Fact: deaths continue

My agenda, or lack of it, has nothing to do with the FACTS that this an imminent threat to life for infected and the uninfected people who just need access to their doctor for other care.

And the numbers I re-posted above were initially posted days ago. I stand by the math as does anyone with any sense.

Face the facts:
Until all
Citizens
Keep working together
You can expect
Our cases to keep increasing
Until we are all infected

BTE, thanks for contributing, which—right or wrong—is rather more than we get from most comments.

“Predictions are difficult, especially about the future”

Wonder when the Guv will push back the 4/17 back to school date? thanks

Standing by for a sole-source state contract for a COVID-19 research group, headed by BTE.

Never let a crisis go to waste, correct, lefties?

Statistics are funny things. Just like Dr Fauci said the model is only as good as the data and the assumptions. The data gaps are enormous. The assumptions are based upon previous data that has even larger gaps. #1 Testing is ramping up at a rate much higher than increase of cases. The numbers quoted for testing are from state labs and a limited number of commercial labs. Commercial labs are doing the bulk of the testing now and most only report positives and not total tested. There is no requirement to report total tested by these labs that are now doing the bulk of the testing. So, if you had 100 cases yesterday and tested 5000 it is not the same as 101 today and you tested 10000. If you don’t know the denominator you can’t develop a percentage, so 9, 10% whatever is wrong. 2) priority for state testing which is still hospitalized patients, i.e. not the full population 3) The numbers are statistically insignificant relative to the population, moreover, the increases whether 5, 10, 100 are not jack squat among the population. 4) Continuing to stack up cases without eliminating deaths and people who are over the virus is beyond misleading.

@11:15 Thanks. I am beginning to question whether people are worth saving honestly.

And I don't think anyone really, closely, read my 11:07 reply to 10:52.

:)

See donkey, it's all ogre.

On March 26 BTE posted that there would be 1,779 infected through 3/31/20.

His model is trash, but he love to pat himself on the back that he’s doing a great job.

Regardless of your agreement/disagreement with any of BTE's statistics/comments, you would have to agree that his statement at the end of 11:07 was well played.

@11:38 Yeah, I'd say I'm doing a pretty decent job, making a positive effort to show how this is a real problem. I revise calculations as updated data becomes available, like any intelligent person.

I provide documentation as best I can. I had hoped to recalculate for 10% in a couple of days, but yesterday's 15% day is skewing the data upwards.

@11:38 And if you are going to quote me, please get it accurate and stop attempting to mislead everyone.

On 3-30-2020 I posted that the math model for today's new numbers predicted 1081. MSDH shows 1073. I challenge you to do better. Put up or shut up.

BTE...you are doing that economic development math. There is no point in the calculations your doing with BAD DATA thrown against a vacuum of context. We have no idea how many have been tested. We have no published data of recoveries. You can’t establish a
growth rate without the context of numbers tested. You can’t have a number of infected without a number of recovered. Hell, we even know how many died but they aren’t removed from the number of cases. I am over this. You have politicians and lawyers who can’t do math making decisions based upon numbers presented without context. OMG look at that going up,up up tp the sky...do sumthin TAter! In the words of General Honore, we are stuck on stupid.

To all you hoax promoters I am making a challenge. Go to the testing sites in Jackson and hand out bottle water to those in line for testing. Take you picture and post on this blog. Be brave and go for it!

Christ sake. You all be safe and happy in your panic. Personally don't have time for that. MS over 1000 in a state of what 2+ million and 22 deaths?

I appreciate all the information, but I do think BTE's method is flawed. Using cumulative cases to date as the basis for predicting increases using a constant percentage for those increases will yield inaccurate results under most circumstances. You can see that in the extremely significant drop in the percentage over time even as the number of new cases increased.

A better predictor is the percentage increase in new cases over the day before. Even so, there is a predicted peak that a constant percentage increase doesn't account for. The model used by the administration predicts that to be somewhere around April 22 in Mississippi with cases falling off after that through the end of May.

Personally I'm watching the national model and drilling down to Mississippi specific data. Even using that model the numbers change drastically. Two days ago it predicted 9,000 hospitalized on April 22 and now it is predicting 4,000. Hopefully the actual numbers will be even lower as we get closer to the peak.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

Numbers are liberal now?

BTE's numbers are literally just a calculation of daily averages and then determining what the next day should be based on those averages. It's about as simple as you can get. If you see a liberal agenda in that, then you're beyond help.

As another commenter said, there are too many unknown variables still to predict the growth. How many tests are being conducted? Is the number of tests limited (ie, 500 patients with symptoms, 100 tests, 30 people test positive, would you assume that there are then 5x that number?).

My personal assumption is that there is a minimum threshold, and once you hit that growth becomes less linear and more exponential.

Agreed, we don't know a lot of underlying data and probably can't know it. In addition, even if we do know it, we may know it too late to be of help.

But does that matter? We do know a few things, and for lack of better data, those few things might be enough, especially for right now.

We know infections and deaths are increasing, everywhere, globally, nationally, regionally, and in state. That fact cannot be ignored. To ignore it would be like the rest of the US refusing to help after Katrina because we were/are not worth helping (compare that to the elderly comments that are abounding).

Are the projections of anyone flawless? No. But they all clearly show a trend that's looking worse by the day.

I compare it to a bank balance slowing going downward (at an increasing rate). One person say we must do something for eventually we will be broke. The other says we can't be sure since we don't know what the money was spent on. In the end we are still broke regardless.

I'm saying believe the data, the facts. Those that minimize this are saying 'trust me'.

"1918--Salt Lake Health Director Samuel Paul said the closures of public places and events was, “absolutely ridiculous and absurd. Such an action can be merely due to hysteria.”

In 1918, Utahns also didn't heed official state warnings to socially distance to avoid the Spanish flu. Back then, most of the state looked more like Utah’s current smaller towns, with people living in tight-knit family and community groups. They simply didn't stop getting together, whether it was for family dinners or larger gatherings.

By the time the Spanish flu ran its course, Utah set the third highest death rate record in the United States, behind only Philadelphia and Colorado, beating the high rate of deaths per capita even in tight urban spaces like New York City. Four percent of those Utahns who were infected died."

102 years later, and we have idiots just like Samuel Paul posting the same "you hand wringers" comments here. Stuck on stupid.

That's right, naysayers lead to almost as many deaths as NYC in Utah in 1918.


In contrast, Utah has now been locked down for longer than almost any state. And has FEWER cases and 1/4 the deaths of Mississippi. (and only part of that is due to a younger population)

One Fourth. Fewer cases even though it started in Washington state nearby and their tourists infected Park City and other ski areas. Their case load would be even lighter even though it has been going on longer.

But, 1052 and ClintonDerangedNJ bray yet again, glorying in their ignorance. Thank God Tater must be listening to some scientists.

@12:09 You are misquoting (again). I'm not saying the government should do anything.

I have said, more than once, that you, me, and our neighbors should do something. And for those doing something, we need to do more.

We need to keep the numbers manageable until healthcare gets a handle on this, till ventilators get made and distributed, till drug cocktails to treat it get developed and approved, till a vaccine gets made and distributed, and till the flood of current sick recover and free up hospital beds.

Government is a like a parent, it steps in when the kids screw up. Good citizens need very little government. FYI, MS has the 4th largest # of state & local government employees, per capita, in the nation.

https://www.governing.com/gov-data/public-workforce-salaries/states-most-government-workers-public-employees-by-job-type.html

@12:49 Thanks for some hard example(s). It's a good reminder that we've been through this before (and will go through it again).

"Government is a like a parent, it steps in when the kids screw up.

You must have been dropped on your head at birth.

Nice youtube video showing existing cases (not total) versus new cases. Shows how to tell when a country gets OFF the virus freight train and begins to make real progress.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=54XLXg4fYsc&feature=youtu.be

Shows we are all in the same boat, easily compares US current/new infections to other countries. Cuts through all other confusing data.

So for those wanting 'more' than simple back of envelope math, here it is. Only problem is that it does not project forward.

Don’t worry about the know-betters BTE. Keep it up! Take comfort in the fact while you don’t claim to know as much as Fauci, that you’re also not getting the number of ad hominems he is either.

When it comes to statistics, a statistician uses the best available data.
With CDC , it’s historical data on epidemics and current numbers available.
While it’s not going to give you exact results, it will come closer than guessing.
Dr Fauci and CDC have given you a range based on best and worst case for a specific period in time.
The average flu is 59000 deaths a year and this one is 100000 as best case over same period if the math challenged behave and the curve peaks.
The number of people here who don’t understand bell curves or basic statistics one of the reasons our educational system is at the bottom.
I don’t know how some of you got out of college and especially med school with such a poor understanding about how your standard practices became standard and how new information changes how you treat patients.

@11:07 I don't. My math modeling is reasonably accurate, certainly close enough to show a trend.

Also like to have a little fun also. Did you find the hidden gem in my 11:07 reply?

The idea that government mandates will produce a result where the infection rate can be massaged, managed and right-sized to meet limited available treatment resources is absolute folly and sheer lunacy.

No BTE, I and many others are not in this together with you because we don't blindly believe the sort of pollyannaish bullshit you insist on depositing here at JJ.

Keep this curve flattening garbage up where we sacrifice the financial viability of the 99% for the fractionally microscopic few and there will be violence.

You better be ready to fight BTE because that is what this curve flattening madness is going to make a reality. History is replete with civil blood-lettings that started with far less provocation.

Tell us, 3:53, who really killed JFK? I get the feeling you know with absolute certainty.

@3:53 I feel sorry for you that you think in such small terms about what we can't accomplish when we all pull together. The rest of the country is leaving MS behind and the forward-looking, intelligent, cooperative people of MS are leaving the people like you behind.

BTE, that is so touching. Your pablum is much appreciated. Thanks.