Thursday, April 23, 2020

Death by the Numbers: Covid-19 Edition

Take a look at the Covid-19 virus death rates for Mississippi.



Ohmigosh, we are running nearly 2%.  Well, yes and no.  Maybe this chart will clarify the first chart a little bit.


13 comments:

Anonymous said...

Does case fatality rate really matter? The infection fatality rate is far more important data although it can really only be estimated at this point. More relevant data is what is the death rate among age groups? The 60+ age group in the State of MS makes up 90% of all deaths.

Anonymous said...

Using confirmed cases as the denominator for mortality rates automatically invalidates these numbers.

We are 100% certain that unreported, mild, and asymptomatic cases outnumber confirmed cases several times over. Which means that the actual mortality rate for MS right now is probably somewhere around 0.1 to 0.2 percent.

In other words, a nasty strain of the flu, unless you're elderly.

It's time to place the burden of isolation on those who are at risk, and let those who are low-risk return to work and school.

Anonymous said...

Many of your readers and bloggers are surgeons who think they should be able to return to performing all their elective surgeries. Many of them are orthopedists. I have changed my mind and I now agree with them.

Since most people (including surgeons and nurses and clerks) who are infectious with the virus are asymptomatic (have no fever or cough), and a doctor's first obligation is to do no harm, the surgery centers should establish a protocol to make certain that they don't give the virus to their patients, many of whom are at high risk of disease and death. The best current way to to this is to screen all the surgeons, nurses, and employees every morning before a patient enters the facility. The two best analyzers for that are the Abbott ID Now (which is fraught with false negatives and probably should not be used) and the Cepheid Gene Xpert. You can get answers inside an hour with these tests and they are 80-90% effective in detecting the virus. So the surgeons and all their staff should be tested daily to assure they will not transmit the virus to their patients, and before a patient enters the door. (After an antibody, IgG is positive in the surgeon or employee, they would be OK to work after eight days and one more PCR test. Until they are IgG positive, daily testing is required.)

In this fashion there will be a reasonable degree of certainty they cannot kill their patients by giving them the virus.

Anonymous said...

translation-if you're 60+, be careful. And if you're less than 40, you're more likely to get hit by a car. looks a lot like the flu

Anonymous said...

Raise your hand if you're excited for Tate to re-open the state on Tuesday so we can all go die for capitalism with Glenn Beck!

Anonymous said...

Virtual hand raised you ding commie!!!

Anonymous said...

Flu v COVID
Flu statistics are from the CDC for 2017-2018, the most severe recent flu season.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2017-2018.htm
The COVID stats are for MS and kindly provided by Kingfish above.

Age Cases Deaths Death Rate
Flu 0-49 25.6 million 3,446 .00013
COVID(MS) 0-49 2,374 7 .00295

Flu 50+ 19.1 million 57,654 .003
COVID (MS) 50+ 2,518 186 .074

I know some people say that there are magnitudes of COVID cases not reported so the virus death rate is much lower. What makes you think all of the flu cases are reported?

Anonymous said...

Damn! I thought it was the Obama socialists who wanted to throw gramma and grandpa over the cliff.

Anonymous said...

What we need is a statistical sample nationwide to determine what percentage of the population in each area has been exposed to the coronavirus. Until we know that we have no way to reasonably determine the mortality rate. It is obvious that the initial estimates of 3%-6% are too high, but without a good idea of what they really are and what percentage of the population is still susceptible to the disease we have no way of knowing if opening things back up unrestricted will potentially result in 50,000 more deaths or 1,000,000 more deaths.

Keep in mind New York City accounts for only 2.5% of the U.S. population yet makes up 25% of the deaths, a factor of 10. Most other areas aren't seeing the same rapid spread so far, but that also means a higher percentage have yet to get the disease. If the nationwide infection rate eventually equaled New York City then you would need to multiply the deaths by 10 which would give almost a half-million killed. Given that nobody had immunity to this disease and it is much more contagious than the flu such a number is possible without mitigation.

Anonymous said...

10:10 am and become a murderer without Earthly penalty.

Oh, by the way, let's do hope that repeated exposure and/or the continued mutation of the virus doesn't change the numbers. And, you should hope the long term damage to those who recover isn't really a " thing".

Be sure to ignore that you are also reducing the number of available workers in every sector to illness but more importantly, a significant number of consumers ( especially in Mississippi).

Here's some bad news: our "seniors" represent well over a trillion dollars in spending and have the most wealth in our Nation and that is even more true in our State.

I think some folks opening will get a shock as to how few will be showing up if they can't control the covidiots and make customers feel they are taking every measure to protect them.



Anonymous said...

The tension only makes me stronger. Keep it closed for EVAR!

Cheers,

Team Chaos

Anonymous said...

If I am not mistaken, the White House plan to "re-open" requires a 14 day period of "downward trajectory" of cases before moving forward.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/openingamerica/#criteria

So, it seems to me we are either following the Trump Administration's plan, or we aren't. If we aren't, we should at least be honest enough to admit it, instead of arguing over who's right. So, does Trump's base only follow his lead when it's convenient?

Anonymous said...

11:54 - That's some strong dope.


Recent Comments

Search Jackson Jambalaya

Subscribe to JJ's Youtube channel

Archives

Trollfest '09

Trollfest '07 was such a success that Jackson Jambalaya will once again host Trollfest '09. Catch this great event which will leave NE Jackson & Fondren in flames. Othor Cain and his band, The Black Power Structure headline the night while Sonjay Poontang returns for an encore performance. Former Frank Melton bodyguard Marcus Wright makes his premier appearance at Trollfest singing "I'm a Sweet Transvestite" from "The Rocky Horror Picture Show." Kamikaze will sing his new hit, “How I sold out to da Man.” Robbie Bell again performs: “Mamas, don't let your babies grow up to be Bells” and “Any friend of Ed Peters is a friend of mine”. After the show, Ms. Bell will autograph copies of her mug shot photos. In a salute to “Dancing with the Stars”, Ms. Bell and Hinds County District Attorney Robert Smith will dance the Wango Tango.

Wrestling returns, except this time it will be a Battle Royal with Othor Cain, Ben Allen, Kim Wade, Haley Fisackerly, Alan Lange, and “Big Cat” Donna Ladd all in the ring at the same time. The Battle Royal will be in a steel cage, no time limit, no referee, and the losers must leave town. Marshand Crisler will be the honorary referee (as it gives him a title without actually having to do anything).


Meet KIM Waaaaaade at the Entergy Tent. For five pesos, Kim will sell you a chance to win a deed to a crack house on Ridgeway Street stuffed in the Howard Industries pinata. Don't worry if the pinata is beaten to shreds, as Mr. Wade has Jose, Emmanuel, and Carlos, all illegal immigrants, available as replacements for the it. Upon leaving the Entergy tent, fig leaves will be available in case Entergy literally takes everything you have as part of its Trollfest ticket price adjustment charge.

Donna Ladd of The Jackson Free Press will give several classes on learning how to write. Smearing, writing without factchecking, and reporting only one side of a story will be covered. A donation to pay their taxes will be accepted and she will be signing copies of their former federal tax liens. Ms. Ladd will give a dramatic reading of her two award-winning essays (They received The Jackson Free Press "Best Of" awards.) "Why everything is always about me" and "Why I cover murders better than anyone else in Jackson".

In the spirit of helping those who are less fortunate, Trollfest '09 adopts a cause for which a portion of the proceeds and donations will be donated: Keeping Frank Melton in his home. The “Keep Frank Melton From Being Homeless” booth will sell chances for five dollars to pin the tail on the jackass. John Reeves has graciously volunteered to be the jackass for this honorable excursion into saving Frank's ass. What's an ass between two friends after all? If Mr. Reeves is unable to um, perform, Speaker Billy McCoy has also volunteered as when the word “jackass” was mentioned he immediately ran as fast as he could to sign up.


In order to help clean up the legal profession, Adam Kilgore of the Mississippi Bar will be giving away free, round-trip plane tickets to the North Pole where they keep their bar complaint forms (which are NOT available online). If you don't want to go to the North Pole, you can enjoy Brant Brantley's (of the Mississippi Commission on Judicial Performance) free guided tours of the quicksand field over by High Street where all complaints against judges disappear. If for some reason you are unable to control yourself, never fear; Judge Houston Patton will operate his jail where no lawyers are needed or allowed as you just sit there for minutes... hours.... months...years until he decides he is tired of you sitting in his jail. Do not think Judge Patton is a bad judge however as he plans to serve free Mad Dog 20/20 to all inmates.

Trollfest '09 is a pet-friendly event as well. Feel free to bring your dog with you and do not worry if your pet gets hungry, as employees of the Jackson Zoo will be on hand to provide some of their animals as food when it gets to be feeding time for your little loved one.

Relax at the Fox News Tent. Since there are only three blonde reporters in Jackson (being blonde is a requirement for working at Fox News), Megan and Kathryn from WAPT and Wendy from WLBT will be on loan to Fox. To gain admittance to the VIP section, bring either your Republican Party ID card or a Rebel Flag. Bringing both and a torn-up Obama yard sign will entitle you to free drinks served by Megan, Wendy, and Kathryn. Get your tickets now. Since this is an event for trolls, no ID is required. Just bring the hate. Bring the family, Trollfest '09 is for EVERYONE!!!

This is definitely a Beaver production.


Note: Security provided by INS.

Trollfest '07

Jackson Jambalaya is the home of Trollfest '07. Catch this great event which promises to leave NE Jackson & Fondren in flames. Sonjay Poontang and his band headline the night with a special steel cage, no time limit "loser must leave town" bout between Alan Lange and "Big Cat"Donna Ladd following afterwards. Kamikaze will perform his new song F*** Bush, he's still a _____. Did I mention there was no referee? Dr. Heddy Matthias and Lori Gregory will face off in the undercard dueling with dangling participles and other um, devices. Robbie Bell will perform Her two latest songs: My Best Friends are in the Media and Mama's, Don't Let Your Babies Grow up to be George Bell. Sid Salter of The Clarion-Ledger will host "Pin the Tail on the Trial Lawyer", sponsored by State Farm.

There will be a hugging booth where in exchange for your young son, Frank Melton will give you a loooong hug. Trollfest will have a dunking booth where Muhammed the terrorist will curse you to Allah as you try to hit a target that will drop him into a vat of pig grease. However, in the true spirit of Separate But Equal, Don Imus and someone from NE Jackson will also sit in the dunking booth for an equal amount of time. Tom Head will give a reading for two hours on why he can't figure out who the hell he is. Cliff Cargill will give lessons with his .80 caliber desert eagle, using Frank Melton photos as targets. Tackleberry will be on hand for an autograph session. KIM Waaaaaade will be passing out free titles and deeds to crackhouses formerly owned by The Wood Street Players.

If you get tired come relax at the Fox News Tent. To gain admittance to the VIP section, bring either your Republican Party ID card or a Rebel Flag. Bringing both will entitle you to free drinks.Get your tickets now. Since this is an event for trolls, no ID is required, just bring the hate. Bring the family, Trollfest '07 is for EVERYONE!!!

This is definitely a Beaver production.

Note: Security provided by INS
.