Jackson Jambalaya

Don't care.

Interesting statistics and graphics, here:
https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest

God bless those who are seeing the bad side of this pandemic. Hurts when your kids lose their career jobs. even more when someone you know has symptoms that quickly turn into positive test results and you know the hospital of death is not that far out of certainty.

As soon as they can get folks to adopt mask wearing en masse we can get back to work. But we need to keep masks on for at least 2 more months.

@10:10 That's because you are a terrible human being.

Not the biggest Tate fan, but the response to testing has been going pretty well. Hopefully if the numbers tay consistant people will understand social distancing works but won't get lazy and start being stupid.

@10:13 Like anything associated with the China data is remotely believable.

Is there something "interesting" you want us to pay specific attention to?

" the hospital of death is not that far out of certainty." I like that. Has a certain deep pessimistic tone. All I can say is, Run Forrest...Ruunnn

@10:10 is a liar and just seeking attention. They cared enough to follow the link and post the first comment...

Fearmonger BTE missed by -12.5% yesterday and -14.7% today. Only yesterday he was here dogging IHME's downward revisions to their model. BTE wants Mississippi infection and death rates to resemble New York and Italy. Remember that when you read his garbage.

We are still seeing the results of the delay in testing. Cases with symptom development on March 20 and 23 are still going up over two weeks later. I know everyone wants to get back to normal as soon as possible, but at the rate things are going even if the infection rate is significantly slowed by the stay-at-home order that went into effect on Friday we won't have any real data to support it until the end of April.

Trying to plan a way to relax the restrictions is like trying to drive a car just by looking at the GPS as long as only the really sick are tested and results take a week or more to get confirmed.

At this point, let the state hire some unemployed people of good intelligence to help with testing. The testing sites should be operating 24-7.

So....when are going get to go back to work? Shit needs to get done.

@11:01 Liar. I've posted again and again reminders for everyone to change their behavior and have posted the numbers/justification/motivation for it. I do not want MS to become NY, but if we don't change our actions it's inevitable, and the numbers show that. And ask KF where my missing posts have gone.

The death rate is flattening.

"we don't have much empirical data to use aside from Italy."

Actually, we do. The Diamond Princess cruise ship. While it is a limited representation of society in general (for example, there were no "nursing home"/long term care patients on board), its skewed demographics may actually be good, i.e., worldwide data suggests the young are the least likely to suffer severe symptoms or die, so a sample of an older, isolated cohort in reasonably good health can provide some data for that segment of the population. For a number of reasons, Italy probably isn't as useful a population as some may think insofar as the general population of the world or the US because there are many dissimilarities between Italy and the US population in general. However, one thing it does appear to prove - yes, prove - is that not taking COVID seriously is a stupid and dangerous thing to do.

Anyone with knowledge of the State wide testing sites? They all using the same test or is it a mixed bag from different manufacturers? Any known false positive numbers, turn around times, etc?

11:01am There's a difference between " fearmongering" and trying to get Mississippians to take CV 19 seriously.

BTE is working with fluid data and trying to project figures, not unlike what CDC is doing. That he or she is showing " worst case" is responsible since so many of you and our Governor are irresponsible.

See New Zealand if you want to see what "responsible" looks like. With their rapid, hard response, they will be have eliminated it on their island country while the U.S. will be , at best, barely past the peak and more likely, still peaking.

We could have, at the first case, clamped down and be where they are... only 1 death and near extinction of CV19 , which will include economy stability. But, we are suffering mightily from politicians who cater to their least educated, least intelligent constituency rather than listen to experts and LEAD by being " Teacher in Chief".

But, no, you couldn't give up a month of your self-centered demands to get us over this in 6 weeks. You couldn't let hospitals get a chance to prepare. You and those like you had to have your way and so we'll all suffer for months to come. And, the really worst case scenario of it hitting with a vengeance again in the fall.

I can only hope you don't survive so you can't hurt others or contribute to the further destruction of this Nation!

11:05, I think what you are saying is that when we see the infection rate come down, that will mean it was actually starting to go down two weeks earlier and we are already well on our way.

The increases we are seeing today are the stupid spring breakers and party hosts from 3 weeks ago.

For most of the tests, It's polymerase chain reaction that they're using. Since they're looking for viral RNA -- a false positive is very, very unlikely in controlled circumstances. Sensitivity is around 90% or so, so false negatives are the real risk.

Sorry, bud, the numbers are real, and if anything, understated to the population as a whole.

Please get these kids back in school! They are running up & down the streets like holy terrors.
4 wheelers are causing traffic jams!

So far this flu season (influenza), there have been 2 million flu illnesses 300000 hospitalizations and 46,000 deaths

Now, compare this to the Coronavirus season.
1,396,675 illnesses, and 79,513 deaths

Don't shut down the world!

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/?utm_campaign=homeAdvegas1?

The damage being done by the shut down is worse than the death rates.

Still not sure what the preoccupation with widespread testing is all about. Testing needs to be conserved for the ill and for healthcare workers. Nationally there is a shortage of swabs and this is a serious issue. You can't just willy-nilly test with cotton swabs. The cotton in the non-standardized swabs (non-validated) can contain bleach residue. What that does is suppress the virus. So you take the sample with a cotton swab and place it in the viral transport media (or saline, if you are hard up) and, wa-la, you suppress the virus and it goes undetected (negative) in the PCR assay (all of them). Hence, all sorts of false negatives. Not a situation that we want or need. All leave the testing to the hospitals so they can preserve the few swabs that remain.

11:14 x 2

@12:40 Agreed insofar as testing goes. There's not enough time or resources to test widely. I know for a fact, the current test load, low as it is, is suffering from delays.

What WOULD be beneficial is to take a statistically significant random sample across a state/region/etc to identify just how many people are 1) infected asymptomatic 2) infected symptomatic not yet diagnosed 3) recovered 4)uninfected.

This would give us the numbers we so desperately need. So those that want to get the economy back on track asap can start pressuring government leaders to make this happen.

@12:14 Yes. This.

And so far as MS numbers go, projections or not, confirmed infections are still accumulating more quickly on the front end than recovered cases are falling off the back.

Let the numbers start looking better and I will be at front of the line congratulating everyone.

Theca Jones: You don't like Tate because he's white. What else is new?

just a small clarification on 12:25 numbers:
the 46,000 deaths are U.S. ONLY - not the world! And only for the last 6-8 months.
so really it's (as of 4/7/2020):
Coronavirus cases (U.S.) - 387,000
Flu cases (U.S.) - 33,000,000
Coronavirus deaths (U.S.) - 12,200
Flu deaths (U.S.) - 35,000

According to the CDC. All you sheep that say that the flu is not the same as the coronavirus, guess what, you're right! The flu is much worse!
So why didn't shit your britches over that?

12:14-It’s understandable why many commenters are annoyed/angered by BTE’s projections. He first claimed that the the entire state would be infected by June. That’s almost 3 million people in Mississippi alone. He more recently lowered that to the “majority “ of the state would get infected. That’s still 1.5 million. We already have real world worst cases scenarios playing out in Italy. They are several weeks ahead of the US and still only have 128K infected out of a population of 60 million-that’s only 0.2%. Their numbers are already starting to trend lower. So to say he’s not engaging in fear mongering is disingenuous. You also hold up New Zealand as a shining example of how to handle the pandemic. You do realize that they are one of the most remote countries in the world and had some of the most restrictive immigration and travel regulations before this all started. There’s a reason billionaires like to buy property and build bunkers there. The USA is the largest economy in the world and it follows that we get the most international travel. If you want to blame anyone for the outbreak here- blame the Communist government of China for not being truthful in the beginning. I still believe in most of what we are doing now, but if 11:01 is on one extreme end of the spectrum, then you and BTE are on the other extreme.

I can only hope you don't survive so you can't hurt others or contribute to the further destruction of this Nation!

Another example of loving tolerance from the wet nursing totalitarians.

Do with this information what you will, but the data _seems_ - seems, not "does" - to indicate that the states that have done the most testing are on the lower end of the scale as to rate of increase, total deaths, etc. That also seems to hold true for Germany, but its infection situation, like Italy, is not very analogous to the US situation. The facts-and-numbers side of me says that mere testing (in other words, simply gathering data) would not and could not have any effect on the rate of infection (but it could lower the death rate - e.g., Germany).

But I have a theory: more testing is simply one component in a system and population that is taking COVID seriously as both a system and a population, both individually and as a society. That theory is also supported by Italy's situation in that it wasn't taken seriously until it was very, very serious and by then, well, the COVID had hit the fan.

It is becoming inarguable that the infection rate and infection rate increase (and thereby, the death toll and death rate) are directly affected by the degree of seriousness with which the citizens of a particular "population," be it a country, a state, a county, a town, or even a household, take this virus.

It's a lot like a rattlesnake. Respect its danger and take easy, reasonable precautions and it will go its way while you go yours. Try to grab its tail or poke it with your fingers and you'll wind bitten and with some pretty serious medical treatment in your near future. Unless you are drunken redneck dumbass, why would anyone think trying to grab a rattler is even on the spectrum of good ideas?

For all of the flu vs. coronavirus comments, comparisons, etc., do some research on the substantive differences between the 2 viruses, instead of zeroing in on the reported statistics. Here is one link about that, for starters:

https://www.vox.com/covid-19-coronavirus-treatment-prevention-cure-vaccines/2020/4/1/21203242/coronavirus-flu-covid-19

@1:59 First, a nicely worded post, so thanks for that. I'll try to respond as clearly as I can to your fair points.

My initial posts to this blog were weeks ago. This was BEFORE shutdowns of Jackson, Madison, Lauderdale county, and then the entire state. In the beginning our daily rate was OVER 30%. Yes, those are 'wildfire with gasoline airdrop' numbers. At that rate, it covers the entire state in less than 30 days. All those posts were in an effort to get folks to understand the nature of exponential growth.

I did some more reading, and found the spanish flu infected around 60% of the globe. So it's safe to sort of use that as a top number for now. Best info available at this time and all...

Yes Italy's numbers are trending lower. However, their country is shutdown tighter that the US ever would/could. But you know what... it's still 'slow burning' through their population even so. What will happen when they try to resume normal life?

Island countries are unique examples. We can't all live in a box. It's great for them.

If we can keep a lid on this thing for a short time it will allow us to find bottlenecks in the mfg/supply chain, healthcare, etc. Yeah I know we all have to back to work. I've got employees I am paying (full salary and healthcare) that are producing practically zero income.

I projected for 5 days based on the trend. I've got 1 more day before I go back and look at the numbers. If we do things right, the daily rate will drop, but it took Italy weeks to get down below 10%, then longer to get below 5%. I look forward to recalculating for lower figures, and will do so when the evidence supports it.

***

And not in response to you specifically, but just a general thought: If the confirmed infected are healing at home or in hospital they are not out infecting others.

There's a pool of unconfirmed/asymptomatic infected that's spreading this thing. We do not know how large this pool is. It's proportional to the confirmed pool though. So, we can do math using the confirmed pool numbers.

And concerning the people whom are recovered/cured. They are lagging ~14 days behind newly confirmed. Due to the steep infection 'curve' their numbers are quite small compared the new numbers and can (for our purposes) be ignored, at least at this time. I will keep an eye on them though.

As part of 'essential business' I am still working. I've taken to keeping a cooler with me so that I don't have to stop at gas stations/fast food/etc for lunch. It's a small step, but it's something I am doing to make the best of the situation.

Totally agree with you 2:25

As many dummies we see, there are 100 other people doing right.

That @12:14, is a real jewel.