Jackson Jambalaya

Results will soon start pouring in so get ready to have some fun.  Who do I think will win the contested races?

Treasurer: Fitch over McRae by 10 despite being outspent.  It is a race no one cares about.  The criticisms about Fitch are not ones that resonate with voters.  McRae didn't have a strong resume but had the ability to finance his own race. 

Auditor: Stacey by 30.  He has received a great deal of bad press lately. However, he also put together a campaign and raised a substantial amount of money.  This site has endorsed Mayor Mary Hawkins-Butler in the past but tonight won't be her night.  She raised little money, had a small, almost non-existent media campaign, and doesn't have the resources to mount a good election day operation and ground game.

Insurance Commissioner Chaney by 25, if not more.  Moseley started late, spent some money, but Chaney is hungry and wants to crush him.  This is not an incumbent taking his opponent lightly.

State Senate #25: Longwitz 60-40.  Billingsley raised more than enough money to get his message out but Longwitz nearly doubled his war chest.  Incumbency has its advantages.  Although Longwitz has been accused of grandstanding, it has been good grandstanding in that it is usually oriented towards his constituents.  Billingsley has worked his ass off but they are too close on the issues.  The usual criticisms against Longwitz are made by politicos and their gripes are usually ones that are lost on the regular voters.

State House #58: Bomgar over Bartley, 58-42.  Bomgar has raised a large amount of money and used it as well.  Bartley didn't even raise $25,000 according to the July 9 campaign finance report.  Bartley has not given people a reason to vote for him while attacking Bomgar.  Usually a strategy for failure in a sophisticated district.

Public Service Commission GOP Primary: Tossup.  Greer might lose some of his Clinton base to cross-over voting in the Democratic Primary.

Hinds County District Attorney: Smith over Alexander: 52-48.  Numbers of Republicans crossed over into the Dem primary today.  That is good for Stanley.  However, Robert has raised more money, has a dirty pac bombing the mailboxes and radio waves, and it might be enough to hold off Alexander.

Hinds County Sheriff: Sheriff will win over Mason by at least 60-40.  He has raised well over $100,000. Aaron Banks is managing his campaign.  He has taken a great deal of negative and critical press over the last few months but he has been working hard and campaigning as if his life depended on it.  Victor Mason has raised little money and ran a weak campaign.  Mac could have spent the last two years raising money for him but didn't endorse him until a few weeks ago.

Hinds County District #2: Darrell McQuirter will easily beat David Archie and Al Hunter.  No runoff. McQuirter gets at last 55% of the vote. 

State House #70: Begley and Sykes in the runoff. 

Hinds County District #1: Graham avoids runoff.

Hinds County District #3: Peggy avoids runoff. Beats the Frocked One by at least 15 points.

Hinds County Circuit Clerk: Zach and Vikki make a runoff although Zach Wallace might slightly win outright.

Madison County Prosecuting Attorney: Hancock over Phillips

Madison County Supervisor District #1: Sheila over John Bell Crosby.

Madison County Supervisor District #2: Howland over Baxter.  Its gotten dirty but machines usually win for a reason.

Madison County District #3: Steen over Ford.  Experienced politician over newcomer.  Has her beat on organization, fund-raising, and experience at campaigning. Knows his district. This was a tough one.

Madison County Constable: Harbor over Shack.

Justice Court Judge: Weisenberger and  Blaine or Kelly Williams in the runoff.

Madison County Circuit Clerk: Pantin and Wray make a runoff.