Wednesday, December 4, 2024

Sid Salter: Trump's Planned Mass Deportations May Trigger Economic Consequences

One of the capstone issues that the majority of American voters embraced in electing former President Donald Trump to a second term in the White House was his hardline stance on immigration and his pledge of mass deportations of the estimated 12 million undocumented immigrants already living in the U.S.

Actually, at various junctures in the 2024 campaign, Trump and his surrogates offered estimates of the undocumented immigrant population of the U.S. as high as 20 million. Did the threat of mass deportation of Hispanic migrant workers who did not enter the country following legal avenues bring political consequences for the Trump campaign? In a word, no. Latino voters in the so-called Democratic “blue wall” states moved to the Trump camp – in part supporting his pledge to secure the Southern border and enact stricter immigration laws. Pollsters found that many Latino voters resented the fact that they obeyed immigration laws to enter the U.S. legally while the undocumented ignored them.

Pollsters also found Latino voters who perceived a stronger, better economy under Trump after struggling through inflation and other economic challenges under President Joe Biden – voting economic concerns over partisan loyalties.

While Kamala Harris took 53% of the Latino majority nationwide, Trump improved his support among that demographic by 13% to take 45% ­– earning the record support for a Republican by Latinos set by former President George W. Bush. But fresh from a successful return to the White House – and leading his party to power in the Senate and holding the House – Trump faces the challenges of making good on his immigration promises.

The sheer logistics of the mass deportation of 12 million undocumented immigrants is stunning. Trump has talked about using the military, in many cases the National Guard, to staff the effort. Even with those resources the task is daunting.

Deporting impoverished immigrants who in most cases are desperate people living in often dangerous foreign countries who came to the U.S. to seek a better life, will generate legal, political, social, financial, and yes, logistical issues.

In many cases, these undocumented workers risked their lives to come to the U.S. Once here, they are willing to accept low-wage, low-skill jobs that many Americans refuse to do just to get a start here that affords them a chance to have a better life.

As Mississippians have witnessed, labor brokers entice immigrant laborers to come here to provide labor for jobs that native Americans are slow to accept. There is an undeniable and ready market for immigrant labor (legal or otherwise) in this state and nation.

In Mississippi, immigrants are willing to gut our chickens, plant our trees, process our catfish, harvest our sweet potatoes, perform the hardest construction labor, cook our food and wash our dishes in restaurants, and clean our rooms in our hotels. The companies extending jobs to those immigrants profit from their labor.

The Council on Foreign Relations reports that more than 2 million refugees from Central America’s turbulent “Northern Triangle” (El Salvador, Honduras and Guatemala) have fled the region. That reality has made the region unstable and forced residents with families and children to flee and brave the treacherous trek north to the U.S. seeking a better, safer life away from the extortions of gangs and organized crime in their home countries.

For the second Trump administration, the potential deportees would account for almost 5% of the U.S. workforce, including large shares of the labor for food and fiber agriculture, construction, hospitality and the vacation industry.

In addition to the impact on the U.S. labor market, Trump critics point to the potential cost of the mass deportations, estimated at $88 billion annually and as much as $968 billion over the next decade. Economic experts worry about the impacts on U.S. economic growth and inflationary forces from the policies.

Economist Peter Simon at Northeastern University in Boston said he fears specific holes in the labor force after deportations begin: “People who build houses, people who are in lawn care, people who do daycare, people who put on roofs — all of these kinds of services are just going to go. You’re not going to be able to find a plumber, an electrician or anybody who can do this kind of work.”

Voters gave President-elect Trump a mandate to grow the economy and secure the borders. Accomplishing the latter may generate obstacles for the former.

Sid Salter is a syndicated columnist. Contact him at sidsalter@sidsalter.com.

30 comments:

Anonymous said...

The Left is starting to say the quiet parts louder now. They love to exploit illegal immigrants if it means they have lower costs of goods for items they like to purchase. Also what is the cost of not deporting these illegal immigrants as they are a burden to not only our communities but our services as well? I'd rather be able to vest those wanting to enter our country instead of just turning a blind eye because it will lower the cost of lettuce...

Anonymous said...

Before the Obama directed Biden-Harris regime brought in 12-17M illegal invaders, Americans had produce, roofs, catfish, chicken, restaurant workers, hotel maids, carpenters and plumbers. We will after a Mass Deportation program, as well. Play your violins elsewhere, Sidney.

Anonymous said...

"jobs that native Americans are slow to accept"...cut off that welfare teat and see how many native Americans "accept" those jobs again. We pay people too much money to not work.

Anonymous said...

Your first lost is your best loss, deport all illegals today!

Anonymous said...

Illegal immigrants cost taxpayers more than $132 billion per year in excess of illegal immigrant tax contributions. That side of the ledger seems to be ignored by the left. Net effect is a drain on the economy, not a plus,

Anonymous said...

I'll take higher food costs offset by the price drop in housing that 20 million vacancies will cause. Not to mention the reduced burden on public services like schools and healthcare.

Anonymous said...

Mass illegal immigration also has massive financial consequences, Sid. Among a myriad of other issues. I'll take whatever comes with the deportations.

Anonymous said...

We will have plenty of workers when Trump kick off all of the able body people from the welfare system.

Anonymous said...

Politicians, Trump included, rarely make more than a half-hearted effort to make good on their campaign promises. They say whatever they think will get them elected. Afterwards, they go to Washington and pretty much forget all about it. I have no real expectation that there will be any mass deportations. Here is what you can really expect for the next 4 years. Taxes will increase. The deficit will increase. The national debt will increase. Illegal immigrants will still be with us because, let's face it, who else is going to do the work that pays less than unemployment/TANF/etc. benefits? If you want things to change, stop reelecting the same people over and over.

Anonymous said...

Dont just deport the illegals, make birthright citizenship only legal for parents who are legal citizens. This anchor baby loophole has been abused way too much.

Anonymous said...

Salter has been carrying water for his poultry farmer buddies for a long, long time. Salter knows damn well they've been outright breaking the law for decades.

Anonymous said...

I have to agree with 8:55!

Anonymous said...

Nobody wants these illegals here, expect the Liberals of course...who need the votes.
The rest of us working middle class folks are fed up. Stop the bottomless welfare programs and Make America Work Again.

*For the record, I too have very little faith in Trump actually doing much of this, just as 8:55 stated.

Anonymous said...

Cheap labor is the Holy Grail of any free market economy. The deportation will be only for a specific but symbolic category of illegal migrant, not nearly all. Donald Trump is a lying politician second, but a bottom-line businessman first. Democrats and Republicans and Trump cannot wean themselves of their addiction to cheap labor. Plain and simple.

Anonymous said...

@8:21 Obama deported more people than Trump or Biden.

Theca Jones of the Roguish Gent Podcast said...

Some of y'all need to tell your lazy sons to get off that game, get off those pills and get a JOB.

Anonymous said...

Liberal Sid at it again. Yes, I know he's from Neshoba County. But Sid's lid got popped by the Left.

Anonymous said...

Sid, get a f'ing life. I hope that you can't sleep at night belly aching over Trump's re-election.

Anonymous said...

"You’re not going to be able to find a plumber, an electrician or anybody who can do this kind of work.”

I had no idea our plumber, electrician, etc work force was fully dependent on illegal aliens and would collapse completely if they were deported.

Anonymous said...

Good article to consider. There is some data with Alabama and how anti-immigrant legislation hurt their economy, especially agriculture.

Anonymous said...

That work force can apply for work visas and come here LEGALLY.

Anonymous said...

I don't want illegals here. I do want migrants and y'all can't see to tell the difference. I do want a sensible relocation so one community or town or city doesn't have to deal with an influx and doesn't have the resources to absorb them into their culture. I want immigrants to have access to learning our language and culture and even mores of a town or city. I want them to be helped to get to where the work IS.
And, I'm sorry, but experience with hiring tells me that a lot of you are the reason you didn't get a job or a girlfriend or a life style you think a white dude deserves. Being white isn't enough. Showing up isn't enough. Nobody likes a grumpy, controlling, jerk who doesn't know how to get along with others or actually bother to learn to do the job well or bother to consider that customers and fellow employees may have good reasons not to do things " your way" as well as know something you don't!
I hope Trump will be a good President. But, if Gaetz and Patel and RFK Jr and " Hedgehog" are examples of appointments and a 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico are more than negotiating tools we are in deep doodoo. I think some of you are going to realize that " deep state" was actually people that were experienced and competent and liked feeling they had a job that mattered to their country.
You think every place is like Mississippi. There are cities with more people. One size doesn't fit all. What works here doesn't always work someplace else. Instead of comparing with an I'm great and you aren't attitude, we'd be better off being willing to learn the success of others and see if their methods would work for us. Never ever in history have things been as simplistic and y'all seem to think. Never has any society other than oppressive ones like Iran now, easily controlled city or region even. And, never has one countries not had conflicts and disagreements with other bordering countries. My way or the highway leadership that isn't benevolent is always a disaster ...every single time. Rinse,repeat,rinse repeat history is a sign of ignorance and a formula for oppression!

Anonymous said...

It seems that both parties like using illegals to get votes. As for solving the problem, why do that. Like cancer, the payoff is in treating the problem, not curing it. As for for dealing seriously with illegals, if many of them are necessary to fill certain jobs, then why not offer or create temporary work visas for them. There would be no path to citizenship by virtue of having such a visa, and no children born here would have U.S. citizenship. Local governments would have no requirement to provide medical care, education, social services. At the end of the visa period, they would have to leave or try to renew. Commission of any felony would result in immediate revocation of the visa and expulsion from the country, with no ability to re-apply at some later time.

Anonymous said...

If Trump actually delivers on this promise, which he will not, the U.S. economy will take a huge hit. There are not people to replace the workers.

Anonymous said...

I too am doubtful Trump deports more than a few of the hardline criminals. I agree our economy has been dependent on cheap labor for years and it will send shock waves through the system if they were to all leave at once. But just once I'd like someone to admit there is a cost to them being here as well. Their kids attend school, they take up housing, they use the roads, hospitals, services just like American citizens. They make some contributions but they also take.

Did housing costs go down when the construction industry turned into nothing but immigrants? Did road construction costs decrease? Have grocery prices even stabalized? I don't think living became cheaper as more of these people arrived.

Anonymous said...

Trump tariffs, does anyone remember Trump having to bail out soybean farmers in his last term that cost taxpayers millions? Trump achieved his #1 goal of being elected to cover his *ss on his legal issues..he promised everything to everyone to win. He will not close Dept of Ed, (although I wish he could), there will be a token effort at “massive deportation” and tariffs but his bravado will never cease. He’s a New York shyster from way back. He promised to build “the biggest casino no one has ever seen in Gulfport at 49 and 90.

Anonymous said...

I admire your devotion. There's not many people that can hang with that mushroom tea the way you do. I started to read it, but that single space wall of text is just too much.

Anonymous said...

Who was doing the work before the invasion of illegals arrived?

Anonymous said...

More leftie talking points.

Anonymous said...

"Trump's Planned Mass Deportations May Trigger Economic Consequences"

Trump's Planned Mass Deportations May Trigger Economic Consequences For My Buds In 'e Chikkin Bidness

There you go, Sidney. Fixed that headline for you. You're welcome.


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Trollfest '07 was such a success that Jackson Jambalaya will once again host Trollfest '09. Catch this great event which will leave NE Jackson & Fondren in flames. Othor Cain and his band, The Black Power Structure headline the night while Sonjay Poontang returns for an encore performance. Former Frank Melton bodyguard Marcus Wright makes his premier appearance at Trollfest singing "I'm a Sweet Transvestite" from "The Rocky Horror Picture Show." Kamikaze will sing his new hit, “How I sold out to da Man.” Robbie Bell again performs: “Mamas, don't let your babies grow up to be Bells” and “Any friend of Ed Peters is a friend of mine”. After the show, Ms. Bell will autograph copies of her mug shot photos. In a salute to “Dancing with the Stars”, Ms. Bell and Hinds County District Attorney Robert Smith will dance the Wango Tango.

Wrestling returns, except this time it will be a Battle Royal with Othor Cain, Ben Allen, Kim Wade, Haley Fisackerly, Alan Lange, and “Big Cat” Donna Ladd all in the ring at the same time. The Battle Royal will be in a steel cage, no time limit, no referee, and the losers must leave town. Marshand Crisler will be the honorary referee (as it gives him a title without actually having to do anything).


Meet KIM Waaaaaade at the Entergy Tent. For five pesos, Kim will sell you a chance to win a deed to a crack house on Ridgeway Street stuffed in the Howard Industries pinata. Don't worry if the pinata is beaten to shreds, as Mr. Wade has Jose, Emmanuel, and Carlos, all illegal immigrants, available as replacements for the it. Upon leaving the Entergy tent, fig leaves will be available in case Entergy literally takes everything you have as part of its Trollfest ticket price adjustment charge.

Donna Ladd of The Jackson Free Press will give several classes on learning how to write. Smearing, writing without factchecking, and reporting only one side of a story will be covered. A donation to pay their taxes will be accepted and she will be signing copies of their former federal tax liens. Ms. Ladd will give a dramatic reading of her two award-winning essays (They received The Jackson Free Press "Best Of" awards.) "Why everything is always about me" and "Why I cover murders better than anyone else in Jackson".

In the spirit of helping those who are less fortunate, Trollfest '09 adopts a cause for which a portion of the proceeds and donations will be donated: Keeping Frank Melton in his home. The “Keep Frank Melton From Being Homeless” booth will sell chances for five dollars to pin the tail on the jackass. John Reeves has graciously volunteered to be the jackass for this honorable excursion into saving Frank's ass. What's an ass between two friends after all? If Mr. Reeves is unable to um, perform, Speaker Billy McCoy has also volunteered as when the word “jackass” was mentioned he immediately ran as fast as he could to sign up.


In order to help clean up the legal profession, Adam Kilgore of the Mississippi Bar will be giving away free, round-trip plane tickets to the North Pole where they keep their bar complaint forms (which are NOT available online). If you don't want to go to the North Pole, you can enjoy Brant Brantley's (of the Mississippi Commission on Judicial Performance) free guided tours of the quicksand field over by High Street where all complaints against judges disappear. If for some reason you are unable to control yourself, never fear; Judge Houston Patton will operate his jail where no lawyers are needed or allowed as you just sit there for minutes... hours.... months...years until he decides he is tired of you sitting in his jail. Do not think Judge Patton is a bad judge however as he plans to serve free Mad Dog 20/20 to all inmates.

Trollfest '09 is a pet-friendly event as well. Feel free to bring your dog with you and do not worry if your pet gets hungry, as employees of the Jackson Zoo will be on hand to provide some of their animals as food when it gets to be feeding time for your little loved one.

Relax at the Fox News Tent. Since there are only three blonde reporters in Jackson (being blonde is a requirement for working at Fox News), Megan and Kathryn from WAPT and Wendy from WLBT will be on loan to Fox. To gain admittance to the VIP section, bring either your Republican Party ID card or a Rebel Flag. Bringing both and a torn-up Obama yard sign will entitle you to free drinks served by Megan, Wendy, and Kathryn. Get your tickets now. Since this is an event for trolls, no ID is required. Just bring the hate. Bring the family, Trollfest '09 is for EVERYONE!!!

This is definitely a Beaver production.


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Jackson Jambalaya is the home of Trollfest '07. Catch this great event which promises to leave NE Jackson & Fondren in flames. Sonjay Poontang and his band headline the night with a special steel cage, no time limit "loser must leave town" bout between Alan Lange and "Big Cat"Donna Ladd following afterwards. Kamikaze will perform his new song F*** Bush, he's still a _____. Did I mention there was no referee? Dr. Heddy Matthias and Lori Gregory will face off in the undercard dueling with dangling participles and other um, devices. Robbie Bell will perform Her two latest songs: My Best Friends are in the Media and Mama's, Don't Let Your Babies Grow up to be George Bell. Sid Salter of The Clarion-Ledger will host "Pin the Tail on the Trial Lawyer", sponsored by State Farm.

There will be a hugging booth where in exchange for your young son, Frank Melton will give you a loooong hug. Trollfest will have a dunking booth where Muhammed the terrorist will curse you to Allah as you try to hit a target that will drop him into a vat of pig grease. However, in the true spirit of Separate But Equal, Don Imus and someone from NE Jackson will also sit in the dunking booth for an equal amount of time. Tom Head will give a reading for two hours on why he can't figure out who the hell he is. Cliff Cargill will give lessons with his .80 caliber desert eagle, using Frank Melton photos as targets. Tackleberry will be on hand for an autograph session. KIM Waaaaaade will be passing out free titles and deeds to crackhouses formerly owned by The Wood Street Players.

If you get tired come relax at the Fox News Tent. To gain admittance to the VIP section, bring either your Republican Party ID card or a Rebel Flag. Bringing both will entitle you to free drinks.Get your tickets now. Since this is an event for trolls, no ID is required, just bring the hate. Bring the family, Trollfest '07 is for EVERYONE!!!

This is definitely a Beaver production.

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