Monday, April 26, 2021

Why Does Anyone Listen to This Guy?

 2 million deaths! 2 million deaths! 2 million deaths!  The supposedly smart guys at the Imperial College in Great Britain shrieked over 2 million million Americans would die from the Wuhan virus if the entire country didn't lock down.  However, The American Institute for Economic Research reported Imperial College wildly overestimated Covid-19 deaths as it scared the planet into one massive shutdown. 

Dr. Phil Magness wrote:

One year later we may now look back to see how Imperial College’s international projections performed, paying closer attention to the small number of countries that bucked his lockdown recommendations. The results are not pretty for Ferguson, and point to a clear pattern of modeling that systematically exaggerated the projected death tolls of Covid-19 in the absence of lockdowns and related NPIs.

Figure II compares the Imperial College model’s projections for its “social distancing” scenario and “unmitigated” scenario against the actual outcomes at the one-year mark after its release. These projections reflect an assumed replication rate (R0) of 2.4 – the most conservative scenario they considered, meaning Imperial’s upper range of projections anticipated substantially higher death tolls. The countries examined here – Sweden, Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea – are distinctive for either eschewing lockdowns and similar aggressive NPI restrictions entirely or for relying on them in a much more limited scope than Imperial College advised. The United States, where 43 of 50 states adopted lockdowns of some form, is also included for comparison.

As can be seen, Imperial College wildly overstated the projected deaths in each country under both its “unmitigated” scenario and its NPI-reliant “social distancing” scenario – including by orders of magnitude in several cases.

Similar exaggerations may be found in almost every other country where Imperial released projections, even as most of them opted to lock down. The Imperial team’s most conservative model predicted 332,000 deaths in France under lockdown-based “social distancing” and 621,000 with “unmitigated” spread. At the one year mark, France had incurred 94,000 deaths. Belgium was expected to incur a minimum of 46,000 fatalities under NPI mitigation, and 91,000 with uncontrolled spread. At the one year anniversary of the model, it reached 23,000 deaths – among the highest tolls in the world on a per capita basis and an example of extreme political mismanagement of the pandemic under heavy lockdown to be sure, but still only half of Imperial College’s most conservative projection for NPI mitigation.

Just over one year ago, the epidemiology modeling of Neil Ferguson and Imperial College played a preeminent role in shutting down most of the world. The exaggerated forecasts of this modeling team are now impossible to downplay or deny, and extend to almost every country on earth. Indeed, they may well constitute one of the greatest scientific failures in modern human history.

 Ferguson has a history of making similar exagerrations.  John Fund reported in National Review last year: 

Ferguson was behind the disputed research that sparked the mass culling of eleven million sheep and cattle during the 2001 outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease. Charlotte Reid, a farmer’s neighbor, recalls: “I remember that appalling time. Sheep were left starving in fields near us. Then came the open air slaughter. The poor animals were panic stricken. It was one of the worst things I’ve witnessed. And all based on a model — if’s but’s and maybe’s.”

In 2002, Ferguson predicted that, by 2080, up to 150,000 people could die from exposure to BSE (mad cow disease) in beef. In the U.K., there were only 177 deaths from BSE.

In 2005, Ferguson predicted that up to 150 million people could be killed from bird flu. In the end, only 282 people died worldwide from the disease between 2003 and 2009.

In 2009, a government estimate, based on Ferguson’s advice, said a “reasonable worst-case scenario” was that the swine flu would lead to 65,000 British deaths. In the end, swine flu killed 457 people in the U.K.

Last March, Ferguson admitted that his Imperial College model of the COVID-19 disease was based on undocumented, 13-year-old computer code that was intended to be used for a feared influenza pandemic, rather than a coronavirus. Ferguson declined to release his original code so other scientists could check his results. He only released a heavily revised set of code last week, after a six-week delay. Rest of article.


 

22 comments:

Anonymous said...

Pfffttt!!!!

Anonymous said...

This very survivable cold was politicized for "Money, money, money, money...... Money". Read a banner this AM that Commie Harris is addressing the UN about our NEXT Pandemic. Sounds like it's already in the pipe.

Anonymous said...

Say it with me...

Scamdemic

Both 45 and 46 have done the bidding of their masters and put trillions of dollars of new national debt on the books of the Global Central Bankers. They will collect billions more interest from the tax payers for the next millennia.

All according to plan.

You will pay the tax.
You will eat the bugs.
You will own nothing.
And you will be happy.

Anonymous said...

Never heard of imperial college or the quoted conservative group that is claiming they are wrong. Does anyone use legitimate sources anymore or is all this garbage coming straight from Facebook?

Anonymous said...

Yes, mistakes happen. This was all to protect people. And despite this, the science is still settled on made made global warming.

Anonymous said...

KF who cares about facts? The narrative is all that matters.

Anonymous said...

And we're supposed to assume this is just incompetence.

Anonymous said...

Oh my!
The silly CV 19 arguments over stats about "lock down" and deaths continue to ignore critical cultural factors in the countries.

In deaths, the age and wealth of the populations at risk and their access to early treatment may have mattered as well as religion ( see India vs New Zealand).

Whether or not a significant percentage of a population did indeed follow protocols and self-quarantine or shelter despite what their government decreed is ignored as well. ( See Florida where their elderly population is comparatively large and they lined up for vaccines in high percentages . Like here, many who voted for Trump weren't willing to risk their life for him but had voted financial self interest.

Nor is whether or not travel was halted in a timely and scientifically useful manner considered.( It doesn't help if you aren't testing or quarantining citizens allowed to travel but only banning non-citizens.)

I suspect if the findings a doctor who is dissecting the brains of corpses of those who have had CV19 ( including those who were unaware they had it) gets duplicated, we may discover too late that the insanity we are seeing was caused by the brain damage he found. The damage on those thin slices of the brain should be a worry to the deniers. Maybe you and your family lucked out or you doomed yourselves to forever making bad decisions.

Anonymous said...

So how does the 600k death toll measure up to the projections that were coming from the right of less than 100k?

Anonymous said...

"So how does the 600k death toll measure up to the projections that were coming from the right of less than 100k?" I have to question how many of the reported Covid deaths are actually directly related to Covid. I believe when this is looked at in the future we will see a lower number of direct Covid deaths. There was never a firm definition of Covid death given. The ones I saw were very ambiguous and I'm sure that some were destined to die regardless of Covid.

Anonymous said...

Saying “I believe” when talking about statistics is an excellent way to make others stop listening, 12:17.

Anonymous said...

@3:29
I’m bot 12:17 but all of this crap based on faith. Literally media induced religion. Had the media not worked up a panic each day, you would’ve hardly noticed a difference in the world around you. Old people would die, plus already sick and obese people would die prematurely. Same as always.

Anonymous said...

Forecasting the future is easy if you have limited variables, but here we have quite a few (masking, traveling restrictions, hand washing, etc times 350 million people, you can calculate...). An estimate plus minus factor ten (anything between 200 000 and 20 000 000) is good in my eyes. Also, we don’t now yet how many will die in the future, either from an acute infection or from long term symptoms.
(I am a scientist, I know many of you will hold it against me...)

Anonymous said...

They didn't know about the significant number of asymptomatic cases at the time. They were working with the best numbers they had. That's the way science works, evaluate the evidence and make your decisions accordingly. Keep reviewing and adjust your protocols as you refine your conclusions.

Who was closer to right though? We've had almost 600,000 deaths, so the actual deaths were about 1/3 of what they initially claimed. On the other hand, you had the "it's nothing but the flu" crowed that refused to reconsider the actual effect of the disease even as the actual death toll rose to ten times higher than even a bad flu year. We crossed 60,000 deaths in just a few months, more than the flu kills in a year, and still they screamed "survival of the fittest, it's only killing the old, take your Vitamin D, TEAM CHAOS!!!!"

Who actually got it closer? That's right, the Imperial College.

Anonymous said...

You may offend the Covidian Cultists with these insensitive facts.

Calm Down said...

I keep seeing the pro-virus crowd estatically pointing to the 600,000 death scoreboard as if they have been vindicated by their fears. Nobody believes that number. Covid deaths are classified as PIC's on the CDC totals (pneumonia, influenza, and Covid). So any PIC death is a Covid death, counted among the 600K.

That's not to say that covid isn't real. It is dangerous for the elderly and those with comorbidities. So take care if you are in that group; consider the vacccine. But in no way have we ever seen the push to force an experimental vaccine on those who don't want it and don't need it.

Don't live in fear. Get the kids back in school.

Anonymous said...

We would be so much better off if the scientists had consulted you geniuses at the start of the pandemic.

Anonymous said...

Damn the truth. Pick your agenda and stick with it regardless which side of sane good sense you choose to live on.

Anonymous said...

Where is that queen of the Chicken Littles, Better Than Ever?

Anonymous said...

lets not forget that this is the same researcher that was clamoring for London to be shut down ...while he was caught breaking his own recommended quarantine rules by.... meeting up with his married (not to him) lover across town.

yeah...experts. all high and moral and really concerned about whats best for YOU.

Calm Down said...

We need better experts.

Anonymous said...

"Saying “I believe” when talking about statistics is an excellent way to make others stop listening, 12:17."

Almost as 'excellent' as noticing the post at 10:29 is actually beginning a FIFTH paragraph!

Suscribe to latest on JJ.

Recent Comments

Search Jackson Jambalaya

Subscribe to JJ's Youtube channel

Archives

Trollfest '09

Trollfest '07 was such a success that Jackson Jambalaya will once again host Trollfest '09. Catch this great event which will leave NE Jackson & Fondren in flames. Othor Cain and his band, The Black Power Structure headline the night while Sonjay Poontang returns for an encore performance. Former Frank Melton bodyguard Marcus Wright makes his premier appearance at Trollfest singing "I'm a Sweet Transvestite" from "The Rocky Horror Picture Show." Kamikaze will sing his new hit, “How I sold out to da Man.” Robbie Bell again performs: “Mamas, don't let your babies grow up to be Bells” and “Any friend of Ed Peters is a friend of mine”. After the show, Ms. Bell will autograph copies of her mug shot photos. In a salute to “Dancing with the Stars”, Ms. Bell and Hinds County District Attorney Robert Smith will dance the Wango Tango.

Wrestling returns, except this time it will be a Battle Royal with Othor Cain, Ben Allen, Kim Wade, Haley Fisackerly, Alan Lange, and “Big Cat” Donna Ladd all in the ring at the same time. The Battle Royal will be in a steel cage, no time limit, no referee, and the losers must leave town. Marshand Crisler will be the honorary referee (as it gives him a title without actually having to do anything).


Meet KIM Waaaaaade at the Entergy Tent. For five pesos, Kim will sell you a chance to win a deed to a crack house on Ridgeway Street stuffed in the Howard Industries pinata. Don't worry if the pinata is beaten to shreds, as Mr. Wade has Jose, Emmanuel, and Carlos, all illegal immigrants, available as replacements for the it. Upon leaving the Entergy tent, fig leaves will be available in case Entergy literally takes everything you have as part of its Trollfest ticket price adjustment charge.

Donna Ladd of The Jackson Free Press will give several classes on learning how to write. Smearing, writing without factchecking, and reporting only one side of a story will be covered. A donation to pay their taxes will be accepted and she will be signing copies of their former federal tax liens. Ms. Ladd will give a dramatic reading of her two award-winning essays (They received The Jackson Free Press "Best Of" awards.) "Why everything is always about me" and "Why I cover murders better than anyone else in Jackson".

In the spirit of helping those who are less fortunate, Trollfest '09 adopts a cause for which a portion of the proceeds and donations will be donated: Keeping Frank Melton in his home. The “Keep Frank Melton From Being Homeless” booth will sell chances for five dollars to pin the tail on the jackass. John Reeves has graciously volunteered to be the jackass for this honorable excursion into saving Frank's ass. What's an ass between two friends after all? If Mr. Reeves is unable to um, perform, Speaker Billy McCoy has also volunteered as when the word “jackass” was mentioned he immediately ran as fast as he could to sign up.


In order to help clean up the legal profession, Adam Kilgore of the Mississippi Bar will be giving away free, round-trip plane tickets to the North Pole where they keep their bar complaint forms (which are NOT available online). If you don't want to go to the North Pole, you can enjoy Brant Brantley's (of the Mississippi Commission on Judicial Performance) free guided tours of the quicksand field over by High Street where all complaints against judges disappear. If for some reason you are unable to control yourself, never fear; Judge Houston Patton will operate his jail where no lawyers are needed or allowed as you just sit there for minutes... hours.... months...years until he decides he is tired of you sitting in his jail. Do not think Judge Patton is a bad judge however as he plans to serve free Mad Dog 20/20 to all inmates.

Trollfest '09 is a pet-friendly event as well. Feel free to bring your dog with you and do not worry if your pet gets hungry, as employees of the Jackson Zoo will be on hand to provide some of their animals as food when it gets to be feeding time for your little loved one.

Relax at the Fox News Tent. Since there are only three blonde reporters in Jackson (being blonde is a requirement for working at Fox News), Megan and Kathryn from WAPT and Wendy from WLBT will be on loan to Fox. To gain admittance to the VIP section, bring either your Republican Party ID card or a Rebel Flag. Bringing both and a torn-up Obama yard sign will entitle you to free drinks served by Megan, Wendy, and Kathryn. Get your tickets now. Since this is an event for trolls, no ID is required. Just bring the hate. Bring the family, Trollfest '09 is for EVERYONE!!!

This is definitely a Beaver production.


Note: Security provided by INS.

Trollfest '07

Jackson Jambalaya is the home of Trollfest '07. Catch this great event which promises to leave NE Jackson & Fondren in flames. Sonjay Poontang and his band headline the night with a special steel cage, no time limit "loser must leave town" bout between Alan Lange and "Big Cat"Donna Ladd following afterwards. Kamikaze will perform his new song F*** Bush, he's still a _____. Did I mention there was no referee? Dr. Heddy Matthias and Lori Gregory will face off in the undercard dueling with dangling participles and other um, devices. Robbie Bell will perform Her two latest songs: My Best Friends are in the Media and Mama's, Don't Let Your Babies Grow up to be George Bell. Sid Salter of The Clarion-Ledger will host "Pin the Tail on the Trial Lawyer", sponsored by State Farm.

There will be a hugging booth where in exchange for your young son, Frank Melton will give you a loooong hug. Trollfest will have a dunking booth where Muhammed the terrorist will curse you to Allah as you try to hit a target that will drop him into a vat of pig grease. However, in the true spirit of Separate But Equal, Don Imus and someone from NE Jackson will also sit in the dunking booth for an equal amount of time. Tom Head will give a reading for two hours on why he can't figure out who the hell he is. Cliff Cargill will give lessons with his .80 caliber desert eagle, using Frank Melton photos as targets. Tackleberry will be on hand for an autograph session. KIM Waaaaaade will be passing out free titles and deeds to crackhouses formerly owned by The Wood Street Players.

If you get tired come relax at the Fox News Tent. To gain admittance to the VIP section, bring either your Republican Party ID card or a Rebel Flag. Bringing both will entitle you to free drinks.Get your tickets now. Since this is an event for trolls, no ID is required, just bring the hate. Bring the family, Trollfest '07 is for EVERYONE!!!

This is definitely a Beaver production.

Note: Security provided by INS
.