Saturday, March 18, 2023

Fighting the Last War

 The failure of SVB got quite a bit of attention this week as depositors got a nice little bailout from the Federal Reserve.  More than a few people blamed the relaxation of Dodd-Frank regulations for banks below $250 billion.   However, there is just one little problem with that hypothesis.  Want to guess what was not included in the stress tests for the "too big to fail" banks?   

LSU's Dr. Joseph Mason and Dr. Kris Mitchener of Santa Clara reported on the pages of the Wall Street Journal: 

Only banks with more than $250 billion in assets are now automatically subject to Dodd-Frank rules for systemically important financial institutions. Yet recent actions by federal regulators certainly seem to be treating midsize banks as systemically important—lavishing deposit guarantees for uninsured depositors at SVB and setting up a new emergency Federal Reserve Bank Term Funding Program to extend liquidity to troubled banks and insulate the financial system from contagion.

But even if midsize banks had been subjected to the same scrutiny as large banks, it isn’t clear that stress testing them would have led to changes that would have prevented failure. Why? Because the tests asked the wrong questions. They failed to encompass the scenarios that ultimately led to SVB’s demise—large and rapid increases in interest rates.

In its February 2022 Stress Test Scenarios, the Fed’s “severely adverse scenario” asked banks to assess their riskiness over a three-year horizon in a hypothetical world in which the three-month Treasury rate stays near zero while the 10-year Treasury yield declines to 0.75% during the first quarter of 2022 and doesn’t change in the subsequent two quarters. Even in December 2021, however, the Federal Open Market Committee’s Summary of Economic Projections was showing the Fed likely targeting interest rates double those of 2022 in 2023, far higher than what it used for bank stress tests.

A reasonable observer would expect FOMC’s policy objectives to have been embedded in the 2023 Stress Test Scenarios. But by February 2023, the Fed still hadn’t changed its regulations to match its monetary policy. While FOMC’s December 2022 projections show its policy rate reaching 5.1% by the end of 2023, the February 2023 severely adverse scenario was almost identical to that used in February 2022: The three-month Treasury rate falls to near zero by the third quarter of 2023, while the 10-year Treasury yield falls to around 0.5% by the second quarter, then gradually rises to 1.5% later in the scenario.

The 2023 severely adverse scenario’s assumptions bore no relationship to reality. In February 2023, the three-month Treasury rate had already risen above 4.5%. Since Feb. 10, 2022, the 10-year has nearly doubled, from about 2% to almost 4%. Even this year, from Feb. 9 to March 10, the 10-year yield has risen by about a quarter of a percentage point.

As has now been well documented, SVB’s deposits were heavily reliant on funds from tech startups and venture-capital firms and most were too big to be covered by deposit insurance. When rates rose, VCs pulled back on funding new innovation, and startups began drawing down their deposits. To meet withdrawals, SVB sold interest-bearing assets into a market where rates were considerably higher than when it purchased them. When SVB reported these losses, markets and depositors got nervous, and a bank run began.... Rest of essay.




Anonymous said...

While lawmakers waived the flag of the 2008 financial crisis while passing Dodd-Frank, it had nothing to do with the crisis, bank failures, or any of the other things they talked about while passing the law. That law was about creating a self financed huge and powerful agency to regulate Main Street, America. Easing of Dodd-Frank? Dodd-Frank never did anything that this type of stuff to start with.

Anonymous said...

Let me suggest another test: Board members dump stock before trouble is apparent to all others.

Anonymous said...

Death by wokeness-

Anonymous said...

Is there any chance that congress people and senators received any political contributions from this bullshit financial institution?

Madison county said...

All this “settlement” does, is pull money out of welfare recipients, social security recipients, unwed mothers recipients, wounded veterans and their spouses, retired federal employees, etc. What can possibly go wrong with this??

Anonymous said...

If I went broke would the government help me? I work in construction.

Anonymous said...

"Let me suggest another test: Board members dump stock before trouble is apparent to all others."
Yes. And it could be codified and called 'The Pelosi Test'.
And a similar rule relating to the sudden acquisition of stock the day after leaving office could be called the "Bryant-Favre Lookback Law".

Anonymous said...

Bank failure, shmank shfailure. What's the big deal? All we need to do is have the Federal Reserve order the Bureau of Engraving to print up a bunch of green ink on paper and make everybody good again. What could go wrong?

Anonymous said...

The SVB FAILURE is a tempest in a teacup with lots of media coverage to insure that the dummies that put too much money in SVB get more than the $250,000 that they should be limited to recovering not the Millions and Billions that they will now get back. The idea that our banking system can not survive a failure of a regional bank is ludicrous. All the smoke is to cover up the bailout of some good ole west coast boys!

Anonymous said...

I really wish that professors would read Congressional records and take a good civics course in who has authority to do what and when an how, before " opining".
This one assumes that bad wording in a bill to get it passed belongs to the administration in power not the one who was protecting it's crooks with "deep pockets".
Too often, bill writers and sponsors have to settle to get the best it can for us or get nothing at all .
Stop being so politically blind as to be naive or half-assed in critiques.

Anonymous said...

Well I just gained an unexpected tax deduction for my income tax next year. Not as much as my deduction when Bernie’s dream failed however. Thanks to the Fed for this unexpected girt.

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Trollfest '09

Trollfest '07 was such a success that Jackson Jambalaya will once again host Trollfest '09. Catch this great event which will leave NE Jackson & Fondren in flames. Othor Cain and his band, The Black Power Structure headline the night while Sonjay Poontang returns for an encore performance. Former Frank Melton bodyguard Marcus Wright makes his premier appearance at Trollfest singing "I'm a Sweet Transvestite" from "The Rocky Horror Picture Show." Kamikaze will sing his new hit, “How I sold out to da Man.” Robbie Bell again performs: “Mamas, don't let your babies grow up to be Bells” and “Any friend of Ed Peters is a friend of mine”. After the show, Ms. Bell will autograph copies of her mug shot photos. In a salute to “Dancing with the Stars”, Ms. Bell and Hinds County District Attorney Robert Smith will dance the Wango Tango.

Wrestling returns, except this time it will be a Battle Royal with Othor Cain, Ben Allen, Kim Wade, Haley Fisackerly, Alan Lange, and “Big Cat” Donna Ladd all in the ring at the same time. The Battle Royal will be in a steel cage, no time limit, no referee, and the losers must leave town. Marshand Crisler will be the honorary referee (as it gives him a title without actually having to do anything).

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Donna Ladd of The Jackson Free Press will give several classes on learning how to write. Smearing, writing without factchecking, and reporting only one side of a story will be covered. A donation to pay their taxes will be accepted and she will be signing copies of their former federal tax liens. Ms. Ladd will give a dramatic reading of her two award-winning essays (They received The Jackson Free Press "Best Of" awards.) "Why everything is always about me" and "Why I cover murders better than anyone else in Jackson".

In the spirit of helping those who are less fortunate, Trollfest '09 adopts a cause for which a portion of the proceeds and donations will be donated: Keeping Frank Melton in his home. The “Keep Frank Melton From Being Homeless” booth will sell chances for five dollars to pin the tail on the jackass. John Reeves has graciously volunteered to be the jackass for this honorable excursion into saving Frank's ass. What's an ass between two friends after all? If Mr. Reeves is unable to um, perform, Speaker Billy McCoy has also volunteered as when the word “jackass” was mentioned he immediately ran as fast as he could to sign up.

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Relax at the Fox News Tent. Since there are only three blonde reporters in Jackson (being blonde is a requirement for working at Fox News), Megan and Kathryn from WAPT and Wendy from WLBT will be on loan to Fox. To gain admittance to the VIP section, bring either your Republican Party ID card or a Rebel Flag. Bringing both and a torn-up Obama yard sign will entitle you to free drinks served by Megan, Wendy, and Kathryn. Get your tickets now. Since this is an event for trolls, no ID is required. Just bring the hate. Bring the family, Trollfest '09 is for EVERYONE!!!

This is definitely a Beaver production.

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Trollfest '07

Jackson Jambalaya is the home of Trollfest '07. Catch this great event which promises to leave NE Jackson & Fondren in flames. Sonjay Poontang and his band headline the night with a special steel cage, no time limit "loser must leave town" bout between Alan Lange and "Big Cat"Donna Ladd following afterwards. Kamikaze will perform his new song F*** Bush, he's still a _____. Did I mention there was no referee? Dr. Heddy Matthias and Lori Gregory will face off in the undercard dueling with dangling participles and other um, devices. Robbie Bell will perform Her two latest songs: My Best Friends are in the Media and Mama's, Don't Let Your Babies Grow up to be George Bell. Sid Salter of The Clarion-Ledger will host "Pin the Tail on the Trial Lawyer", sponsored by State Farm.

There will be a hugging booth where in exchange for your young son, Frank Melton will give you a loooong hug. Trollfest will have a dunking booth where Muhammed the terrorist will curse you to Allah as you try to hit a target that will drop him into a vat of pig grease. However, in the true spirit of Separate But Equal, Don Imus and someone from NE Jackson will also sit in the dunking booth for an equal amount of time. Tom Head will give a reading for two hours on why he can't figure out who the hell he is. Cliff Cargill will give lessons with his .80 caliber desert eagle, using Frank Melton photos as targets. Tackleberry will be on hand for an autograph session. KIM Waaaaaade will be passing out free titles and deeds to crackhouses formerly owned by The Wood Street Players.

If you get tired come relax at the Fox News Tent. To gain admittance to the VIP section, bring either your Republican Party ID card or a Rebel Flag. Bringing both will entitle you to free drinks.Get your tickets now. Since this is an event for trolls, no ID is required, just bring the hate. Bring the family, Trollfest '07 is for EVERYONE!!!

This is definitely a Beaver production.

Note: Security provided by INS