Saturday, February 13, 2021

The REST of the Story (Weed Edition)

74! 74! 74!  Supporters of medical marijuana screamed that number during the debate over a Senate medical marijuana bill this week.  They claimed Initiative 65 got 74% of the vote last November.  There is just one problem with that claim: It isn't true.  

61% of the electorate voted for either Initiative 65 or Initiative 65A.  That is a strong majority but not a tidal wave either.  Initiative 65 received 57% in the election between the two initiatives.  Check the Secretary of State's certified election results. 


 Even though this is Mississippi, 61 < 74 and 57 < 74.  The media reported I65 got 74% of the vote on election night.  However, the Mississippi media was simply too lazy to go back after all of the votes were counted and check the certified results. 

Mississippi Today: 

After years of inaction by the Legislature despite growing grassroots, bipartisan support, nearly 74% of voters in November approved Initiative 65. It’s a constitutional amendment mandating and specifying a state medical marijuana program. 

Associated Press: 

 Uncertified election results show 74% of Mississippi voters approved the ballot measure that allows doctors to prescribe up to 5 ounces (142 grams) of marijuana per month for people who have at least one of more than 20 serious medical conditions. 

Clarion-Ledger: 

 Voters approved the citizen-led Initiative 65 by a 74% majority that will allow doctors to prescribe medical marijuana for 22 debilitating conditions.

The local tv stations quoted the Associated Press story.   WLOX reported: 

Initiative 65 was voted into the state constitution last year by 74% of the population, but that’s not the end of the story.

Perhaps someone should explain basic math to State Senator Kevin Blackwell.  


 


18 comments:

Anonymous said...

Doesn’t matter. It was plenty enough. And in a high turnout year.

Anonymous said...

Ulmer @ Y'allPolitics:

Since the passage of Initiative 65 on the ballot in November, with over 75 percent of Mississippians showing favor to a medical marijuana program in the state, lawmakers and officials have begun to work out the details of the new program.

Bogus claims have been a hallmark of the effort from the outset. Including Bomgaars'.

Anonymous said...

Media...lugenpresse.

Anonymous said...

You must be anti cannabis mr. fish.

Aisle B Bach said...

1920s: A chicken in every pot!

2020s: Pot in every kitchen!

2120s: What's a chicken maaaaannn?

To Cross The Road said...

"Chicken in the bread-pan kickin' out dough"...don't let the irony lose you.

Anonymous said...

That reproduced page is misleading. 74% is accurate.

One must read all the election results reported. Not everyone who voted in the election voted on the initiative measures —for or against.

1.3 million people voted in the Presidential election.Only 1 million voted on the marijuana initiatives. Of that 1 million, 74% supported the marijuana amendment which passed.

The percentages on the reproduced page compare the numbers who voted on the marijuana initiatives to the total of votes cast in the entire election on any race, 1.3 million The presidential race drew the most votes. Many people (300,000) simply did not vote one way or the other on other races/issues, including the marijuana initiatives.

So of the state’s 2 million registered voters, 1.3 million voted at all. Of that 1.3 million who voted , 1 million voted for one of the two marijuana constitutional amendments — pretty amazing.

Of those 1 million who voted for one of the two amendments, 74 % supported the amendment which passed.


Anonymous said...

There is a bill pending before Congress to legalize marijuana on a national level. If it passes, then the pot revolution will take off. We'll see tax money in state coffers, new job creation, edibles for those who don't want to inhale junk in their lungs, and maybe less addiction to opioids and other potentially lethal drugs.

Could some of the attorneys here opine whether Mississippi could block the cultivation and sale of marijuana here if it is legal under federal law? Would it violate the Commerce Clause? Or would it be like liquor laws which each state can regulate?

Morton's Fork said...

@ 8:35 - That you, Frank Corder? Or is it Alan? Step up!

Of course if only two people had voted and both had voted for 65, you hacks would be blathering about 100% of the electorate supporting the initiative. Math is a funny thing.

Anonymous said...

KF thought he was so clever, then got schooled by a commenter bringing the facts.

Anonymous said...

Let’s just say enough people voted for it to bring attention to the issue. Whatever your thoughts on MM either for or against enough Mississippians thought MM was at least worth a try. And for those who actually suffer from one of the debilitating issues like me, maybe the ideal of being able to pull away from opioids is enough to give it a shot. Trading one drug for another? Maybe, but after 10 years of the lows and highs of just trying to feel normal I’m in its ball park. So we’ll see.

Anonymous said...

8:35 a.m. Math is a wonderful thing to have. And just like a mind, its a terrible thing to waste.

Statistics as well - it has long been said that statistics lie, and liars use statistics.

Along with math and statistics, one should also look at the law. You know, that simple little thing embedded in the Mississippi Constitution at Section 173. Maybe some other folks might want to take a look at a second part of this section, once Mayor Mary gets through with her first look.

While 73.7% of the people who chose between 65 and 65a might make your and the weed industry's argument about the support, that pot doesn't smoke. You argue that there are 2 million registered voters in the state - but you don't want to make the argument that only 38% of the state's voters support the industry's program for medical marijuana - because it doesn't make your position look good.

Fact is, in November there were 1,313,894 people who voted - and of those, 57% supported 65. The fact that 21.3& chose not to support 65 or 65a probably means they didn't support medical marijuana in any form. Not the industry's program, or a legislative program. This can be supported by the fact that 28.3% voted No on the first question - it appears that of those, 21% didn't want to choose either. Which, according to the constitutional provisions for I&R is a choice.

To measure the percentage by the total vote is exactly what the I&R provisions of the constitution requires. Section 273 (8) reads in part "....the measure receiving a majority of the votes on the second issue and also receiving not less than forty percent OF THE TOTAL VOTES CAST AT THE ELECTION AT WHICH THE MEASURE WAS SUBMITTED...."

In other words, to help you understand why the SOS measurement (and KF's post) is correct, the requirement is to see what percentage of the votes cast that day were supportive of 65. And that answer is 57%. not 74%.

What is even more telling about this is that the MM initiative was the first measure on the ballot - and oftentimes there is a dropoff of votes cast the further down the ballot one goes. But last November, there were two other issues following the MM initiative - Ballot Issue #2 which had to do with electing statewide officers - and on that issue there were only 6.16$ of the voters who chose not to vote for either yes or no. And on Ballot Issue #3, the Flag referendum, only 2.29% chose not to cast their vote for either choice.

So, the fact that 21.3% of the voters chose not to vote for 65 or 65a means that they did not support medical marijuana in any form. Your attempt to transfer their skipping the issue as not being meaningful is wrong constitutionally, and seeing that it wasn't due to their not continuing to the end of the ballot reinforces that fact.

Now, going back to Section 273(8). As stated in the provisions, "any person who votes FOR the ratification of either measure on the first vote must vote for one of the measures on the second issue in order for the ballot to be valid. Any person who votes against both measures (which in this instance was 374,931 voters) may vote but shall not be required to vote for any of the measures on the second issue....."

Clearly, of the 374,931 voters who voted against both measures some 281,000 (21.3%) chose not to vote for MM in any manner and did so by not voting for 65 or 65a. Your statistical lie trying to tie their skipping the issue as a way to raise the support from 57% to 74% doesnt work any better than if it was said that only 38% of the voters support 65 because the others either voted against it, skipped it on the ballot OR DIDN"T SHOW UP TO VOTE on November 3rd.

Nice try, and thanks for your input - wrong as it may be.

Anonymous said...

4:10 — take a deep breath. Chill.

You confirm everything 8:35 said about the numbers is true.

And then you threw in a bunch of your own guesswork and speculation about people who didn’t vote.

Don’t worry. Relief for all that pent up anxiety is coming.

Anonymous said...

23,127 fewer votes on the first question and the measure would have failed. That is approximately the size of one MS House district. Had the opposition been more organized and focused and actually campaigned, MM could have easily lost. The loss of gun rights was the MM Achilles heel and they blew the opportunity to hammer that home.

Hope y'all will smile when I take your picture exiting the dispensary.

Anonymous said...

10:58, the 'opposition' did not have a funding source from which to fight. Just a bunch of concerned individuals. Unlike the marijuana pushers who spent over $6 million - mostly from 'investors' who planned to make big bucks off their unlimited, unregulated business opportunity they sold as medicine.

What you say is true - if the opposition could have been more organized, but to conduct a statewide opposition to a political issue takes the mother's milk of politics. If they had access to it, 65 would have failed.

Just like if those that truly wanted Medical marijuana had spent a little money lobbying for it with the legislature in previous years, it might have gotten somewhere. But the money behind it this time wasn't interested in it for 'medicinal' purposes, ergo they never contributed to a push at the legislature.

Anonymous said...

10:58 - Surely you know 23,000+ votes in this state ain't just chicken-shit or pocket-change. If a frog had wings...

Anonymous said...

4:10, 10:58, 6:22–

You all are a buncha woulda, shoulda, coulda.

That’s why there are elections—takes all the guesswork out.

But to play your game, if all 2 million voters had actually voted then MM would have gotten 1.7 million votes and not just 1 million. That would then be 85 % and not just 74% of the vote. And you know it alls would still be losers sitting around whining and spinning numbers.

Anonymous said...

Signature gatherers at MSU told students that medical pot would pave the way for legalized pot. FACT.



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