Two plus months into the war with Iran and the fog of war is becoming the fog of peacemaking. What was a shoot-out has become a stand-off. The key terrain feature remains the Strait of Hormuz. It is the key to this conflict in much the same way that Vicksburg was to the Civil War. The double blockade of the Strait is creating a siege atmosphere and mindset. Daniel Yergin, the great energy scholar and scribe, calls this the biggest energy disruption in history. Resolving this grand disruption will not be easy or quick.
Many Americans are tired of the stand-off at the Strait and anxious to get back to the way life was three months ago but they will probably be disappointed. Ending a war is much more complicated than starting one. War by its very nature is an effort to change the course of history and history can be very unforgiving. Peacemaking is hard and easy to screw up. Getting it right is critical, especially when negotiating with fanatics. America has plenty of good and bad examples of peacemaking over the past 250 years. With all the grumbling and anxiety over gasoline prices it would be good to review some of those past peacemaking experiences, both good and bad. The Vietnam War peace talks (Paris Peace Accords) lasted almost 5 years from May 1968 - January 1973 in the midst of still intense jungle combat. World War I’s fighting ended with an Armistice on 11/11/1918 but the Treaty of Versailles wasn’t signed until 6/28/1919. Many historians now blame the tough provisions of that treaty for the rise of the Third Reich and WWII.
Fighting in the Spanish American War ended with an Armistice on 8/12/1898 and the Treaty of Paris was signed on 12/10/1898. It ceded control of Cuba, Guam, Puerto Rico and the Philippines to the U.S. In less than a year the Philippine Insurrection would begin with the Battle of Manilla on 2/4/1899. The Peace deals of WWII were decided in conferences in 1943 at Casablanca and Tehran when the Allied Leaders (Roosevelt, Churchill, Stalin) agreed on Unconditional Surrender terms for the Axis Powers. The War of 1812 was fought in a time when communication was determined by the speed of a ship under sail or by horseback. Alas, the signing of the Treaty of Ghent in Belgium on 12/24/1814 did nothing to deter Andrew Jackson’s dramatic victory in the Battle of New Orleans on January 8 th 1815. The Mexican American War 1846 – 48 was another peacemaking effort frustrated by pre-telegraph communications. President was James K. Polk was an ardent advocate for Manifest Destiny. The War began as a border dispute over whether Texas’s southern border should be the Rio Grande River or the Nueces River. Zachary Taylor and Winfield Scott led the American forces which included many future Civil War generals. Winfield Scott accepted the Mexican surrender in Mexico City in September 1847. Oddly, President Polk chose as his peacemaking envy a low-level bureaucrat, Nicholas Trist, who logged many miles between Washington and Mexico City in completing one of the most consequential peace treaties in American history. The Treaty of Guadalupe Hidalgo set Texas’s southern border as the Rio Grande and more importantly it added California, Nevada, Utah, most of Arizona along with parts of New Mexico, Colorado and Wyoming to the U.S. and the U.S. agreed to pay Mexico $15 million. It was signed by Trist on February 2, 1848 and confirmed by the U.S. Senate on March 10, 1848. Unbeknownst to the negotiators and ratifiers from both sides, gold was discovered at Sutter’s Mill outside Sacramento during February. Within months it would trigger one of America’s greatest migrations as citizens rushed to the gold fields of its new western state. Wars are often pivot points in history with a host of consequences, some intended some not. This conflict combined with the event in Venezuela could be a big gamechanger for the U.S. and the rest of the world. But a successful lasting peace is a necessary requirement.
This column was authored by Ashby Foote. Mr. Foote is a member of Bigger Pie Forum, graduate of West Point, and serves on the Jackson City Council.
This post is sponsored by Bigger Pie Forum.
33 comments:
Repubtards bought this and now you own it. Way to go….dumbasses
I find it highly suspect that our fuel/gas prices have skyrocketed when we are energy independent. I smell greed and no politicians are publicly connecting these dots. I know it's a "global market" but this is almost criminal. We can do whatever we want.
Thanks for sharing, libtard.
Oil is figured worldwide so prices reflect that. Iran would seek to control the whole area if we didn’t stop them. They are a dangerous enemy and should have been dealt with 25 years ago. Why do you thing Russia and China are their best friends, if Iran could control one or 2 more countries it would mean 35% of the worlds oil.
@3:20
That is where you are 100% wrong. America can’t just do anything America wants. You are ignorant. The last time the USA won a war was the Philippines-American war. The allies would’ve lost WW2 without the Soviet war of attrition and we’ve lost every war since. What honestly makes you think America can do whatever it wants? American isn’t even a sovereign nation because it’s entirely controlled by Zionists!
I don't remember all of the complaining when Biden had gas over $5 a gallon just to try to force everyone to buy an electric car. The U.S. does not set the price of oil. No one on here crying about the price of gas knows why it is taking a little longer to get all of this over. There is a lot more happening than just in Iran. Of course none of the news will say anything about what all is happening. They refuse to report anything about Trump that might let people know a little more about what is going on. They are much more interested in how they can connect Trump to Epstein without including Clinton.
It's a global market and unless the USA institutes price controls on domestic oil and refined products AND prevents the export of our crude and refined petroleum products then the international shortage caused by the war with Iran will continue to increse the price you pay.
Which politicians do you think will be the ones to connect the dots? The ones that take hundreds of millions in 'campaign' contributions from big oil?
They fell for it again. They always do.
but muh 1979 hostages! Muh Marine base in Lebanon!
Irrelevant to people in 2026.
This was all for Israel. Bibi lied. Trump lied. Americans died.
3:20pm
Mitigate your exposure to the pump, buy CVX next time it dips.
3:19 - I am pleased with this. The markets are strong and this is just a blip. The US will be stronger down the road. You sure were not complaining when Biden had fuel prices through the roof, did you, Dumb Dumb?
3:20 - You are clueless. Your Hinds CC degree fails you.
Sir you are a dumbass if you want a rouge nation with a nuclear weapon.
The kinetic attack lasted all of 3-4 weeks. The rest has been a cease fire with the intent of a peaceful solution with Iran relinquishing their enriched uranium. And, don't think the Kurds in Iraq and the CIA aren't plotting an insurrection.
Loves my Costco gas - $3.78
If nothing else, this has demonstrated how much our lives are ruled by market traders and finance bros.
Any cursory review of the examples cited in the article will show glaring differences. Among those differences is this "war" was started by a person who had no idea what he was doing, via civilian bureaucrat-politicians who had no idea what he or they were doing, to accomplish nebulous, ill-/un-defined results that were either impossible or completely unnecessary even in general concept.
The problem with Trump is not that he never has a good idea or even that he always fails. In broad terms, he has had good and reasonable ideas, along with bad and stupid ones, and he has not always failed, but he has failed spectacularly in some surprising areas, e.g., he managed to bankrupt a casino in Atlantic City as but one example. But the devil is in the details and Trump's track record with details is abysmal. As one factual example, even if he is worth every dollar he has previously claimed, based only upon what his parents left him he did not even beat any broad US index funds' return over the last 30 years. IOW, he would certainly be worth more than he claimed had he just given his entire inheritance to Vanguard, stuck to golf and banging hookers, and not tried to make a single deal.
If he cannot make a NJ casino work or deal his way into greater wealth than an index ETF would have made for him, why would anyone think that he could possibly successfully prosecute a war against, and secure a peace with, a leadership cabal like that in Iran?
Get ready to be bent over the next time you need an oil change. Or maybe they'll just tell you they have no oil to sell you.
"Due to the unfolding situation in the Middle East, we’re facing the largest supply shortage of lubricating fluids in the modern history of America. Realistic, middle-of-the-road estimates are for our average available supply in this product category to drop by 40%.”
https://www.reddit.com/r/oil/comments/1te33rt/autozone_internal_email_leaked_ref_upcoming_oil/
Trump obliterated Iran's nuclear production just last summer.
America has allowed any adversary to use "boots on the ground" against us. Every politician is quick to say there won't be any. Every plan is made devoid of infantry. Every military operation is from the air, or otherwise without ground troops. No matter how spectacular air power is projected, wars can only be won on the ground. The way to end this is to send ground force into Iran to either kill, capture, or drive the mullahs from Iran. Otherwise. they are dug in.
4:37 if you didn't hear complaints about gas prices in other administrations, you weren't listening.
Only a fool would not be glad Iran's nuclear capability was wiped out by bombing.
But, just like in Vietnam, we assumed Iran was inhabited and led by stupid men who had no support and the citizens would rejoice.
We forgot nobody likes uninvited foreigners telling us "what to do and how to do it". Nobody likes others thinking we are not smart enough or capable to decide our own fate.
And, some of us thought Trump was very anti- war and anti-military since his words and deeds for decades led us to believe that.
And, then I think it's pretty dumb to think any people in any country are going to not defend their homeland when it's under attack. Worse, it's dumb of us to assume an entire nation is so inferior to us that beating them will be easy.
It'd be a relief to have a President that thought about consequences and didn't assume what he wanted was the only thing that mattered.
We've " ticked off" pretty much the entire world except for Israel and our enemies are delighted.
I was fine with destroying Iran's nuclear capability. I didn't mind bombing Gaza and Lebanon. But, this has gone too far and mired us in another foreign war. And, the attempts to take Greenland from Denmark and to claim we should rule our entire hemisphere and spending tax dollars like a drunken sailor on leave and pretending tariffs don't hurt US is beyond stupid it's idiotic. We pay the tariffs on goods coming here dumbasses!
I'm fine with bombing away Iran's nuclear capability even on a regular basis. I'm not fine with being the world's police. I think we need to get our own house in order. It's not. And, I sure don't want the tacky gilding everywhere on everything!
Full disclosure: I don’t cheerlead for anyone or thing, no party, ideology, or combatant but truth as I perceive truth to be.
That said, Trump heeded the counsel of Netanyahu and started this fight, underestimating his opponent and overestimating the efficacy of his weaponry. This war is already lost (again), but Trump’s opponent, willing to suffer the blows that rain down, is holding him by his nose while kicking his ass.
Trump is flailing. His braggadocio, the thing that served him well in the past as a real estate developer and celebrity, doesn’t intimidate this opponent. He doesn’t seem able to wade forward, and he can’t back up or back out or back down.
If the GOP loses its majorities in the House and Senate, Trump won’t complete his term of office. If his health doesn’t take him before November ‘28, Democrat congressional majorities will, expeditiously and gleefully.
Trump says the US doesn’t need the oil coming out of the Strait, and he says it as though the US will have crude to refine and meet its needs no matter what. But if there is any buyer anywhere else in the world who says, “All right, we’ll pay $500 a barrel for what is currently selling for $200 a barrel,” no American seller will say, “No, this is American oil for Americans only, and you shall have none.” The corporation knows no patriotism, only profit.
Where is the like button?
Russia is a rogue nation with nuclear weapons. But MAGA continues to roll out the red carpet for Pooty.
Sure, Reddit is the #1 most reliable source of news. Not.
Very true, but the libtard lefties can't handle the truth.
Crain's Automotive News (100 years reporting on the automotive iindustry, basic subscription starts at $30.00 a month)
Synthetic motor oil shortage threatens dealership service lanes and new-vehicle production
https://www.autonews.com/retail/service-and-parts/an-motor-oil-shortage-crisis-0522/
On e thing that he did not fail at. He got rid of Slo Joe and the cackling.
A deal is in the making. Stay tuned.
If T Pain hadn’t fucked up the deal that Obama made with Iran in his first term they never would have gotten to 60% enrichment. Thus T Pain created a problem that already had a solution.
With a team of dealmakers like Don Jared and Witkoff" We’re gonna win so much, you may even get tired of winning. And you’ll say, ‘Please, please. It’s too much winning. We can’t take it anymore, Mr. President, it’s too much.’ "
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