Friday, June 17, 2022

Snapshot: S&P 500

 The PERS fiscal year will come to an end in 13 days.  Check out the one-year performance for the S&P 500. 

The S&P 500 was 4,166 on June 18, 2021.  It fell 13% to 3,676 today.  The PERS rate of return usually lags a couple of points behind the S&P 500.  However, that trend is usually on the positive side.  It is not known if the rate of return will be worse than the index.   

What does it all mean? It means PERS will almost certainly have a negative rate of return although we won't know until December how bad the damage will be.  


Anonymous said...

Not being satisfied with attacking black leadership every day, Kingfish also lashes out angrily at his second favorite target, PERS!
Will nothing ever soothe his seething rage?

Anonymous said...

How's that fixed 3% COLA looking now?

Anonymous said...

@ 3:37, "Racism is not dead, but it is on life support — kept alive by politicians, race hustlers and people who get a sense of superiority by denouncing others as racists." ~ Thomas Sowell

Anonymous said...

3:37 needs help, a lot of help

Anonymous said...

@3:57 PM - Indeed he does. Jealousy and insecurity abound.

Anonymous said...

Some things can't be helped.

Anonymous said...

irrelevant. backed by the State, so all their checks will clear. My 401K however, that's what we need to talk about.

Anonymous said...

Five year averaging Kingfish. Don’t forget.

Anonymous said...

Good thing the 13th check, aka COLA is locked in at 3%. Social Security checks will be going up 8% next time.

Anonymous said...

If that Mississippi retirement fund made money this last year, please print the results after paying out more than required funds. This is one of the biggest frauds perpetrated against the people who pay taxes in the 50th financially unstable state in the U S A. P.s. please don’t include Puerto Rico or Washington D. C. In your response.

Anonymous said...

S & P 2022 YTD is down 23%, NASDAQ 31%. Go check your 401ks…bad ramifications for PERS for sure.

Anonymous said...

If you don’t like it, then you can always move to Minnesota or Utah. The government of the State of Mississippi signed a contract to pay me and provide my benefits for 25 years of service. I upheld my part of the contract.

Anonymous said...

3:37 PM
Audits are racist. Now Performance is racist. If I didn't know better I'd say I'm criticizing a socialist. Congratulations here's your (you).

Anonymous said...

3:37 is one of many who is unable to respond except by personal attacks. Must be a product of the public schools. If anyone has a "seething rage" it can only be 3:37. He/she/it really hates what KF reports but he/she/it can't say its false. Truth is like sunlight to people of that kind and they don't like it.

Anonymous said...

6:46, where is the “fraud”. Incompetence is much more accurate. Take your pick, we are talking about our legislature.

Anonymous said...

The PERS apologists who post here continue to surprise me. If I had spent 25 years of my life working for the state, I would be screaming for more accountability and efficiency. They act as if more competence in PERS will somehow threaten the security of their checks instead of adding more security.

Anonymous said...

An overview of PERS is incomplete without the explanation of SLURP for part-time employees who happen to pull the purse strings.

Anonymous said...

6:46 - Where were you and your snide remarks back during those early years of the COLA when it worked great? Fraud? Well, in the same sense that Social Security was fraudulently orchestrated and currently operated. Fraud indicates theft and knowingly engaging in criminal activity. PERS, like all defined benefit retirement programs, has ups and downs. You no doubt don't have a 401(k) or your typing fingers would be trembling this week. Otherwise, you and the chatty-ponzi crowd can stuff it.

Kingfish has had a hard on for PERS for two decades. It's a real easy target. Takes no original thoughts to trot out the same tired rhetoric month after month. Meanwhile, he won't say a word regarding the ultra-serious decline in value of most portfolios and particularly EVERY 401(k).

Pappy Odaniel said...

It will be greater than 13% loss due to the fact they use bonds to balance risk. Bonds have also been routed. Moreover, PERS has Russian bonds which are valued at 0. They also have MBS exposure which has had greater than 50 percent.

Anonymous said...

PERS is in real trouble... and the agencies that fund the 17.45% of salary for each state employee are going to be squealing hard when their portion goes up significantly more to cover deficit.

I'm predicting that one day there will be a run on PERS because people are scared of not even getting what they put in back, so they'll cash out - and that will be the end of it.

Anonymous said...

@3:51 - looking quite good, thanks for asking.

Anonymous said...

3:37, you do make me laugh. KF, who I don’t know from Adam’s housecat, has simply posted a graph, factual information. It’s not an attack to post objective facts.

That'sMisterDeplorableToYou said...

What's so special about state employees they, alone, are entitled to have the state treasury guarantee the security their retirement?

Question: Why not offer the program to every Mississippian with a job?

Answer: Because of the low level of required employee contributions, it's not sustainable without dipping into the general fund. At a state-wide level, that would be readily apparent and there wouldn't be enough of the general fund to go around.

Give state employees matching 401Ks like the rest of us.

Kingfish said...

I write about SLRP every year and explain it as you well know. Keep making up stuff.

The market performance is noted because such a negative return almost ensures PERS goes backwards when the actuarial reports are released in December. It will be interesting to see if the consultants recommend a contribution increase.

You can scream all day long about full faith and credit. Take a look at the size of the state budget. PERS is a $30 billion portfolio. The state doesn't have the money to bail it out repeatedly.

Anonymous said...

June 18, 2022 at 4:43 AM
Not to mention that since 2008-2009 bond have been correlated with stocks. They haven't been the counterbalance they were for the past 14 years. Hopefully with interest rates going back up they will be.

Anonymous said...

Russian bonds?

Kingfish said...

You are right about the smoothing. PERS will recognize $2.2 billion in last year's investment income this year. Ok. Sounds great. It will mitigate but by how much is the question. The deficit between contributions and payments is around $1.3 billion. So take that right off the top. You have a billion left to play with. There will be no investment income from this year to fund payments. That means PERS will probably have to dip into the portfolio. The payments will probably be right at $3 billion. Don't forget retiree growth. A conservative estimate is another 2,000 retirees to 114,158.

Anonymous said...

Replying to:

"I'm predicting that one day there will be a run on PERS because people are scared of not even getting what they put in back, so they'll cash out - and that will be the end of it.

June 18, 2022 at 5:07 AM"

PERS is mandatory for qualifying positions. A refund of your contributions is only permitted following termination. No provision exists for loans, partial refunds, or hardship withdrawals of member contributions.

Refunding your account contributions means losing your membership in PERS as well as the accompanying service credit. You also waive and relinquish all accrued vested rights.

So, how do you predict "a run on PERS" and "cashing out" unless everyone is going to quit and lose all of their accrued benefits which exceed their contributions? Ain't gonna happen.

Anonymous said...

@10:37 AM
I am not the original commenter you are replying to.

I work in state gov and I see the “run on PERS” often. Every single boomer who has accumulated enough leave to meet their 25 years, is getting in the system ASAP. It is leaving huge vacancies that are going unfilled because the state pay is abysmal. Many starting salaries are lower than what fast food and Walmart are paying.

The benefits are the only attractive offerings to perspective state employees. And here we have KF reminding everyone that PERS is going to need a bailout or it will disappear. Perception is important. Our entire economy is built on government sanctioned Ponzi schemes and enforced monopolies.

Anonymous said...

To: 11:26. This is 10:37.

I guess one of us misunderstood the original meaning of "run on PERS." I did not consider putting in your full 25 (now 30) years, retiring and taking your earned benefits as a "run on PERS." I considered that simply as retirement. (Of course when folks retire as early as possible, their PERS check is not as big as if they stayed longer, so there is that...) After well over 30 years in the system, I never once heard of anyone timing their retirement based even a little bit on the perceived health of the PERS system.

But instead I was thinking a "run on PERS" was people not yet eligible to draw retirement trying to withdraw their to-date contributions to PERS. In other words a 10- or 20-year employee trying to take his money at that time and go work elsewhere. People do sometimes do that, but again IME, not because of the perceived health of PERS. Perhaps the original poster can clarify what he meant by his prediction.

Anonymous said...

1:43 PM
The "run" is the same problem that Soc Sec has: Not enough people entering the state workforce. And inability to keep. I'm not who you were responding to, but I was a state employee from '14 to '18 and left taking my PERS retirement out and rolling into a 401k.

So I guess you could call it a "slow motion run".

Anonymous said...

The 'run on PERS' that Captain Doofus predicted is impossible. That would mean a majority of state employees would quit or retire NOW and draw down all or a large part of their vested balance. That ain't happening. In short, Captain Doofus is 'ignernt' of how the system works.

You'll also hear no agency screams since those would scream are not footing the contributions.

Raise employer contributions by 5% and partner with the legislature to require that each agency and participating entity absorb/experience/enjoy a 5% reduction in fat. Then you'll hear some hearty moans.

And, NO, have never, ever dedicated more than brief lip service to SLRP, and rarely at that (compared to your blabbering re PERS). You only ever mentioned SLRP as an 'Oh, by the way', comment.

Kingfish said...

You are a liar. Period.

2022 post
2020 post
2019 Bigger Pie Forum post on SLRP
2018 post
2016 post
2016 post on 2015 audit
2013 post

The SLRP numbers and the law creating SLRP as well as its history are spelled out in every SLRP post.

If that's not good enough for you, hoo bad.

Anonymous said...

Longer they wait to head over the the barber the shorter the cut they've eventually receive.

Anonymous said...

What is that on the face of 11:36?

Anonymous said...

11:36 seems quiet.

Perhaps a mouth full of crow prevents a proper defense.

Anonymous said...

@6-17 7:57
"The government of the State of Mississippi signed a contract to pay me and provide my benefits for 25 years of service. I upheld my part of the contract."

The government promised you that future taxpayers would pay you. If they weren't going to wait until it completely blows up to do something, the lack of bankruptcy law for states would ensure you get paid. But there was something like a $17B deficit before the bad returns this year. So the unfunded obligations are already larger than the annual tax revenues of Mississippi and it's going to get significantly worse this year and it's going to continue to get worse before they do anything. At some point, math stops being optional and at that time, you're not going to be able to find anybody willing or able to cram it down taxpayers throats. Politicians aren't going to volunteer to get voted out in mass by implementing confiscatory taxes, and waiting until PERS blows up ensures that the required taxes will be more than a judge could feasibly order to be implemented.

Taxpayers are going to take it on the chin, but I think it's naive to think that later recipients in PERS won't also take a good sized haircut.

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Trollfest '09

Trollfest '07 was such a success that Jackson Jambalaya will once again host Trollfest '09. Catch this great event which will leave NE Jackson & Fondren in flames. Othor Cain and his band, The Black Power Structure headline the night while Sonjay Poontang returns for an encore performance. Former Frank Melton bodyguard Marcus Wright makes his premier appearance at Trollfest singing "I'm a Sweet Transvestite" from "The Rocky Horror Picture Show." Kamikaze will sing his new hit, “How I sold out to da Man.” Robbie Bell again performs: “Mamas, don't let your babies grow up to be Bells” and “Any friend of Ed Peters is a friend of mine”. After the show, Ms. Bell will autograph copies of her mug shot photos. In a salute to “Dancing with the Stars”, Ms. Bell and Hinds County District Attorney Robert Smith will dance the Wango Tango.

Wrestling returns, except this time it will be a Battle Royal with Othor Cain, Ben Allen, Kim Wade, Haley Fisackerly, Alan Lange, and “Big Cat” Donna Ladd all in the ring at the same time. The Battle Royal will be in a steel cage, no time limit, no referee, and the losers must leave town. Marshand Crisler will be the honorary referee (as it gives him a title without actually having to do anything).

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Donna Ladd of The Jackson Free Press will give several classes on learning how to write. Smearing, writing without factchecking, and reporting only one side of a story will be covered. A donation to pay their taxes will be accepted and she will be signing copies of their former federal tax liens. Ms. Ladd will give a dramatic reading of her two award-winning essays (They received The Jackson Free Press "Best Of" awards.) "Why everything is always about me" and "Why I cover murders better than anyone else in Jackson".

In the spirit of helping those who are less fortunate, Trollfest '09 adopts a cause for which a portion of the proceeds and donations will be donated: Keeping Frank Melton in his home. The “Keep Frank Melton From Being Homeless” booth will sell chances for five dollars to pin the tail on the jackass. John Reeves has graciously volunteered to be the jackass for this honorable excursion into saving Frank's ass. What's an ass between two friends after all? If Mr. Reeves is unable to um, perform, Speaker Billy McCoy has also volunteered as when the word “jackass” was mentioned he immediately ran as fast as he could to sign up.

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Relax at the Fox News Tent. Since there are only three blonde reporters in Jackson (being blonde is a requirement for working at Fox News), Megan and Kathryn from WAPT and Wendy from WLBT will be on loan to Fox. To gain admittance to the VIP section, bring either your Republican Party ID card or a Rebel Flag. Bringing both and a torn-up Obama yard sign will entitle you to free drinks served by Megan, Wendy, and Kathryn. Get your tickets now. Since this is an event for trolls, no ID is required. Just bring the hate. Bring the family, Trollfest '09 is for EVERYONE!!!

This is definitely a Beaver production.

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Jackson Jambalaya is the home of Trollfest '07. Catch this great event which promises to leave NE Jackson & Fondren in flames. Sonjay Poontang and his band headline the night with a special steel cage, no time limit "loser must leave town" bout between Alan Lange and "Big Cat"Donna Ladd following afterwards. Kamikaze will perform his new song F*** Bush, he's still a _____. Did I mention there was no referee? Dr. Heddy Matthias and Lori Gregory will face off in the undercard dueling with dangling participles and other um, devices. Robbie Bell will perform Her two latest songs: My Best Friends are in the Media and Mama's, Don't Let Your Babies Grow up to be George Bell. Sid Salter of The Clarion-Ledger will host "Pin the Tail on the Trial Lawyer", sponsored by State Farm.

There will be a hugging booth where in exchange for your young son, Frank Melton will give you a loooong hug. Trollfest will have a dunking booth where Muhammed the terrorist will curse you to Allah as you try to hit a target that will drop him into a vat of pig grease. However, in the true spirit of Separate But Equal, Don Imus and someone from NE Jackson will also sit in the dunking booth for an equal amount of time. Tom Head will give a reading for two hours on why he can't figure out who the hell he is. Cliff Cargill will give lessons with his .80 caliber desert eagle, using Frank Melton photos as targets. Tackleberry will be on hand for an autograph session. KIM Waaaaaade will be passing out free titles and deeds to crackhouses formerly owned by The Wood Street Players.

If you get tired come relax at the Fox News Tent. To gain admittance to the VIP section, bring either your Republican Party ID card or a Rebel Flag. Bringing both will entitle you to free drinks.Get your tickets now. Since this is an event for trolls, no ID is required, just bring the hate. Bring the family, Trollfest '07 is for EVERYONE!!!

This is definitely a Beaver production.

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