Friday, May 30, 2014

Harper poll: 5 points

It's tight.  Harper Polling said the latest polls shows Cochran at 45%, McDaniel at 40%, and the undecided vote is 15%. Harper stated:

As Election Day approaches, there is reason for hope and fear with both campaigns in the Mississippi Senate Republican primary election. 

 On the positive side of the ledger for Senator Thad Cochran, he maintains a lead just beyond the margin of error, his image with Republican voters is a net +16%, and 89% of voters have heard about the incident involving the photographing of the Senator’s wife.

 However, he is an incumbent under 50%, the photograph issue is not turning many voters against McDaniel who weren’t already there, and he is under performing his favorable image rating (52%) by 7% on the ballot (45%).

 The McDaniel campaign has not persuaded voters to dislike Cochran, but the argument for a fresh start is proving compelling.  Compelling enough for voters who are in fact fond of the 6-term Senator to give serious consideration to bringing him home.

 Chris McDaniel is bloody and bruised but still standing.  His image rating is approaching 1-to-1 and the flow of the campaign messages in the race is giving voters a worsening opinion of McDaniel (37% favorable to 50% unfavorable).  But it appears that the mission for McDaniel is merely to stay viable as an alternative to the long-time incumbent.  

 The race appears to be a referendum not on any perceived misdeeds of Thad Cochran but rather a more general desire for change in leadership in Mississippi. Rest of the poll results.

34 comments:

Anonymous said...

Would be curious of the sample size and region. I can't imagine CM polling well south of Hattiesburg.

Anonymous said...

The reason Cochran is "slipping" in the polls is the incessant negativity of his campaign, it has nothing to do with anything McDaniel is doing. McDaniel and his klan already painted themselves as radical wackos, and Cochran could have just strolled back to office but instead of being the gentleman, he is trying to win the mudslinging contest. They tried to hand this thing to Cochran and his campaign manager crapped on the silver platter.

Anonymous said...

sample size 599 statewide

Anonymous said...

Demographics are way off in the poll 26% Tupelo/West Point and 9% for the Coast. Cochran is extremely strong on the Coast. Get the numbers right and Cochran is probably up 10-12

Anonymous said...

This can't be right. Thad is up by at least 25-30%. ROFLMAO

Anonymous said...

You should NOT have posted this. McDaniel's voters will now believe he actually has a shot, notwithstanding the regional imbalance in this poll. When the results come in on Tuesday night, they're going to have so much farther to fall. I predict deputies in Jones County will set a record for welfare checks on Wednesday. In fact, they'd better go ahead and call in the reserves.

Anonymous said...

Mississippi Republicans are a tad on the aged side, eh? Not that there's anything wrong with that.

Anonymous said...

Would be curious of the sample size and region. I can't imagine CM polling well south of Hattiesburg.

599 likely Republican voters, distributed proportionally around the state.

When a 40+ year incumbent with 100% name ID is under 50%, that is trouble.

It's math. Upset coming Tuesday.

Anonymous said...

Here's a guarantee. 58% of the voters next Tuesday WILL NOT be 66 years of age or older. No way. Time to panic in the Cochran camp.

Anonymous said...

Not even close to accurate distribution. In the 2011 GOP Primary, the Tupelo media market represented 8% of GOP voters, Jackson market was 23% and the Gulfport/Biloxi market was 17%, yet they have the Tupelo market represented at more than the Jackson market and almost 3 times the Gulfport/Biloxi market.
Take a look for yourselves.

http://www.sos.ms.gov/Elections/electionResults/State%20Repulican%20Party%20Primary%202011%20Cert.pdf

Anonymous said...

i'll give the Tea Party this....they can certainly keep pace on a keyboard. The ballot box will be another story.

Anonymous said...

Guess we will all find out on Tuesday night who is right.

Anonymous said...

Where in the HELL is Melanie??

Anonymous said...

Maybe this was the pollster that called me the other night. I told him I don't answer polls just so the candidates can regurgitate my views back to me. Let them tell me how they stand first,and then I'll vote for the one that most fits my views.

Anonymous said...

Mike Lee, Ted Cruz and Rand Paul have refused to endorse McDaniel!!

Anonymous said...

Sam Hill is on twitter reporting a new poll out by Chism which places Chris ahead of Thad!

YAY, Chris!!!!!!!!

You should be able to find the poll on twitter or The Clarion_Ledger.

Cheer up, McDaniel supporters! We are gonna kick some duffs Tuesday and teach Haley Barbour a lesson.

God is got to come through for us. We have not had a US Senator from Mississippi supporting us in forever! Agree?

Anonymous said...

So 5:37 why is Ted Cruz, Rand Paul and Mike Lee running away from McDaniel?

Anonymous said...

"God IS got"....what a rube ass, 5:37. Your vote shouldn't count.

Shades of Hinds Board of Supervisors said...

So, after seeing the 'paid advertisement' on here attacking McDaniel, I suppose my quandry is this: Do I want to vote for a man who skipped a vote to campaign or do I vote for a man who has to have two aides help him to his desk and another to point to the lever which will register his vote? And yet another to drive him back to his basement apartment for his afternoon nap. Decisions Decisions.

Anonymous said...

Check out this latest news on the Chris and Thad race...

(NOTE: Posted at 5:25 PM this eve)

UPDATED: Poll shows McDaniel leads Cochran by 2 points

http://www.clarionledger.com/story/dailyledes/2014/05/30/chism-strategies-poll-mcdaniel-leads-cochran/9784881/



Kingfish said...

That is a Brad Chism poll. Not worth the digital print used for publication.

Anonymous said...

This is crazy, man. McDaniel has done every single thing wrong in this campaign. Every single thing. And Cochran should win. But why oh WHY did Thad rely on these monsters, assassins and hacks? If Cochran loses, Henry Barbour will appear in his true demonic form (with his misshapen sidekick Austin snarling at his heel). These people are corrosive and are destroying civic life in Mississippi. The Barbours make me not want to vote, and I have never said that before.

Anonymous said...

YOU WON'T SEE THIS FROM Y'allCochran or any other Haley Barbour apologist.

PAY ATTENTION McDaniel campaign.

Full page Cochran ad in MississippiLink. May 29, 2014, PAGE 5.

Thad for Mississippi

= Cochran's long record of service gets praise from Democrats & Republicans

= Provided more than $18M in federal funds to HBCU's such as JSU, Tougaloo College, Alcorn State University, Mississippi Valley State University and Rust College

(Note: Thad Cochran has been in Congress over 40 years and he's taking credit for providing, over all that time, ONLY 18 MILLION DOLLARS to HBCU's? If that doesn't insult your intelligence Democrats then you are the dumbshits that Bennie Thompson and Robert Graham claim you to be?

Then, the special message from Thad Cochran to Democrats is at the end:

*The decision on who is going to be our next senator is going to be made in the republican primary. We're asking democrats to cross over and vote in the republican primary to ensure our community's interest is heard.

Johnny Weir said...

I'm voting for Megan West Allen!

Anonymous said...

Count Johnny in the tiny racks camp.

Anonymous said...

7:31
Take that white hood off, so we can see who you are.

Anonymous said...

Classy 9:04. Perfect lady and you are a shithead. Prettiest and nicest on the tube, and you are a buttbreath.

Anonymous said...

Let's see how many votes Ronny Lott gets Tuesday. I'm guessing 10.

Anonymous said...

Can't wait till Tuesday night to see how this all plays out. What a shit show this race has turned into.

Friendly Henry said...

"Mike Lee, Ted Cruz and Rand Paul have refused to endorse McDaniel!!"

EGAD! What are you hearing from Buchanan, Nadar and Bill Richardson? They're at least equally as irrelevant.

Pugnacious said...

The decision on who is going to be our next senator is going to be made in the republican primary. We're asking democrats to cross over and vote in the republican primary to ensure our community's interest is heard.

That's the same election strategy that Anderson and his Tribe over at the smoke-filled rooms of the NMisscommentor are planning... the aim of which is to support the election of McDaniel as the Republican candidate that Childers can beat in the General election. But Sarah Palin joining that McDaniel Donnybrook may be the "monkeywrench" in their plan...turning off the ABC(Anybody But Cochran) voters. Tina Fey, call your makeup man.

Anonymous said...

Another problem with the tea party is that there is a percentage of these people who want change for the sake of change and to just beat the incumbent. They really don't seem to care who wins as long as its not the person currently holding the office. This is how the democrats elected Obama.

Anonymous said...

Who is "All Citizens for Mississippi"? Is that a PAC?

Anonymous said...

Who the hell thinks the 2011 primary is a relevant reference point? It was a statewide election. Puerile were pouring into the polls to vote for sheriff, constable, JC, circuit, chancery, coroner, supervisor,DA, and legislative races. I hope McDaniel campaign isn't using 2011 turnouts as a guide!


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