Tuesday, October 19, 2021

Ben Shapiro: The End of Risk and the End of Civilization

 Human beings aren't great at assessing risk. 

In 1979, psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky posited a new branch of behavioral economics, which they titled prospect theory. One of their key findings was that human beings are naturally loss-averse -- we generally are willing to forego the probability of gains in order to minimize the chance of losses. Because of our loss aversion, human beings are also subject to what Kahneman and Tversky label the "planning fallacy": our self-serving bias toward believing that we are capable of planning for contingency more successfully than we are. As Kahneman writes, "Exaggerated optimism protects individuals and organizations from the paralyzing effects of loss aversion; loss aversion protects them from the follies of overconfident optimism." If we feel that we can solve problems, we might be more likely to take risks -- and if we feel that risks are a problem, we might be more cautious with our plans.

But what if the problem we are seeking to solve is (SET ITAL) risk itself? (END ITAL) What if our policymakers aren't concerned with counterbalancing loss aversion on behalf of more productive risk-taking? What if, instead, our policymakers lie to us, and tell us that risk is no longer necessary (SET ITAL) at all? (END ITAL)

This is the situation in which we currently find ourselves. As a society, we have become so addicted to the elimination of risk that we are willing to believe any politician who provides us a purported roadmap. A large percentage of the country believes in nearly religious fashion that all risk can be mitigated, so long as we grant the authorities and experts absolute power. We have been told that we need no longer face health risks, so long as we give the government power to mandate vaccines, mask our children and lock down our businesses -- even without solid evidence that such measures are effective. We have been told that we ought to delegate all of our economic policymaking to unelected centralized bureaucracies, which serve as the source of both our monetary and fiscal policy, and that this will insulate us against the possibility of financial difficulty. We have been told that individually planning for the future, which entails risk -- delayed gratification is always a risk -- should be foregone in favor of a cradle-to-grave government safety net. 

To mitigate risks to myself, the easiest measure is to create an authority that controls everyone. Risk itself is the enemy: someone else might undertake risks, and those risks might have indirect effects that harm me. Better to live in the warm embrace of control by experts than in the chaotic world of individual decision-makers.  

This is the road to authoritarianism.

A healthy civilization (SET ITAL) requires (END ITAL) risk-taking. Innovators are risk-takers. Disincentivizing that risk destroys innovation. Working is risk-taking. Disincentivizing that risk destroys work. Building for the future is risk-taking. Disincentivizing that risk destroys responsibility. The fundamental good of liberty lies in the incentivization of risk. As F.A. Hayek put it, "If there were omniscient men, if we could know not only all that affects the attainment of our present wishes but also our future wants and desires, there would be little case for liberty." But, Hayek points out, we are not omniscient; we do not know who will provide progress, or how. Progress requires risk; liberty ensures the ability to take risk. 

We thus have a choice before us between the false promise of individual enervation and endless paternalistic caretaking from centralized authority and the real and chaotic world of liberty and risk. Which option we choose will decide whether our civilization survives.

Ben Shapiro, 37, is a graduate of UCLA and Harvard Law School, host of "The Ben Shapiro Show," and editor-in-chief of DailyWire.com. He is the author of the New York Times bestsellers "How To Destroy America In Three Easy Steps," "The Right Side Of History," and "Bullies." To find out more about Ben Shapiro and read features by other Creators Syndicate writers and cartoonists, visit the Creators Syndicate website at www.creators.com.

COPYRIGHT 2021 CREATORS.COM

13 comments:

Anonymous said...

Ben Shapiro’s selective quoting of Kahneman and Teversky to support his position is pseudo-intellectual sloppy seconds. While I doubt many readers of this blog have read Kahneman’s various books, those that have will recognize that hijacking his work into Shapiro’s political whining is reason enough not to read Chicken Little Shapiro.

This country has some real challenges and poor leadership, but simplistic thinking and intellectual misappropriation don’t do those challenges any favors.

That'sMisterDeplorableToYou said...

Endless paternalistic caretaking from centralized authority . . .

"If ye love wealth better than liberty, the tranquility of servitude better than the animating contest of freedom, go home from us in peace. We ask not your counsels or arms. Crouch down and lick the hands which feed you. May your chains set lightly upon you, and may posterity forget that ye were our countrymen."
― Samuel Adams

Anonymous said...

9:41 am

It’s the dawn of the day of professional trolls. Find someone who was a member of a certain group who is now against that same group and prop him up and let him scream.

Examples? Milo. He is / was gay but screamed out at gays. Muslims who now disavow Muslims - a reformationist type. Let the Muslim scream at Muslims. “Smart” guys like Ben who now spew venom at the very things that have him his credentials….

Here we have a highly educated person in Shapiro whose goal is not to educate but it’s to troll and “point out” what’s wrong and deadly. His aim is not to help anyone understand how to exist and be better….his aim is to create chaos. Watch him argue. He’s terrible at it and very angry.

What lies right underneath his surface is an angry bitter soul who yearns to watch others hate and simmer.

Truly sad so much time was put into this guy….he wasted lots and will only be known for inciting violence.

Anonymous said...

I can’t stand Ben Shapiro.
But I simply can’t get enough of his sister, Abigail Roth (née Shapiro)

Kingfish,
Ditch Ben and add more Abigail. Just say you are adding more feminine content.

here is her youtube channel, Classically Abby.

Anonymous said...

10:07 : At least he believes in freedom to choose and truth. You will be begging for folks like him soon enough. Once your freedom is gone of course.

Postcards From Caracas said...

While I doubt many readers of this blog have read Kahneman’s various books, those that have will recognize that hijacking his work into Shapiro’s political whining is reason enough not to read Chicken Little Shapiro.

So you ostensibly have read Kahneman's "various books" and, yet, you still read Shapiro's column even though the supposed "hijacking" was "reason enough not to read" Shapiro.

There is no reason to take your advice to read or not read something or some author. You're just another anonymous nobody seeking only to silence the voices with whom you disagree.

Anonymous said...

10:07, A troll calling someone else a troll. That's rich.

Anonymous said...

One doesn't have to read Kahneman.

Shapiro is stating the obvious in a time when too many are blinded by partisan nonsense.

" The greater the risk, the greater the reward" and that there are " no risk free ventures" and older than I am.

There is merit in the observation that we, as a society now have unrealistic expectations of government and most everything and everyone. The symptoms is the nitpicking of imperfections in everything and everyone that has been fed by extremists in both parties.

Good decision making requires gathering as much reliable information as possible and weighing the gains vs the risks while attempting to be prepare for negative outcomes. Or the old SWOT...strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats.

A wise human knows what risks and negative outcomes they can tolerate.

But, no one can be prepared for the unforeseen.

Bad things happen to good people who have tried hard to " do it right".

Whoever told some of you that hard work and being moral make you immune to misfortune, lied. Whoever told you to be perfect and expect perfection, lied. Whoever told you "fair" was an expectation and not a goal, lied.

And, those who imagine they " did it all themselves" and never had good luck or support from others in their success are egomaniacs.

Anonymous said...

"The greater the risk the greater the reward"...why some people get a thrill out of playing russian roulette...or not getting vaccinated and/or taing precautions to ot get infected by covid?


Herman Cain Award winners often imagine " did it all themselves"...when in fact they had a lot of help from the rwnj covid deniers and antivaxxers!

Anonymous said...

2:33 : Science is a funny thing these days huh Einstein ? Seems it's only a cool tool used by the progressive media and libby turds. When someone unvaxxed but has the antibodies(science) uses it......

Anonymous said...

Shapiro is the second coming of the messiah…..wish folks would realize that and nail his ass to a piece of wood and stick him the desert.

Anonymous said...

@3:08
Don’t forget the science around biological gender. That’s heresy to the cult of wokeness.

That'sMisterDeplorableToYou said...

@4:15

There is no such thing as “biological gender”. SEX is biological. Gender is cultural. Despite what the Left would have you believe, the concepts of ‘sex’ and ‘gender’ are not interchangeable. Sex is male or female. Gender is masculine or feminine. You will not find the word “gender” in any biology book — unless it was edited post 2015.


Recent Comments

Search Jackson Jambalaya

Subscribe to JJ's Youtube channel

Archives

Trollfest '09

Trollfest '07 was such a success that Jackson Jambalaya will once again host Trollfest '09. Catch this great event which will leave NE Jackson & Fondren in flames. Othor Cain and his band, The Black Power Structure headline the night while Sonjay Poontang returns for an encore performance. Former Frank Melton bodyguard Marcus Wright makes his premier appearance at Trollfest singing "I'm a Sweet Transvestite" from "The Rocky Horror Picture Show." Kamikaze will sing his new hit, “How I sold out to da Man.” Robbie Bell again performs: “Mamas, don't let your babies grow up to be Bells” and “Any friend of Ed Peters is a friend of mine”. After the show, Ms. Bell will autograph copies of her mug shot photos. In a salute to “Dancing with the Stars”, Ms. Bell and Hinds County District Attorney Robert Smith will dance the Wango Tango.

Wrestling returns, except this time it will be a Battle Royal with Othor Cain, Ben Allen, Kim Wade, Haley Fisackerly, Alan Lange, and “Big Cat” Donna Ladd all in the ring at the same time. The Battle Royal will be in a steel cage, no time limit, no referee, and the losers must leave town. Marshand Crisler will be the honorary referee (as it gives him a title without actually having to do anything).


Meet KIM Waaaaaade at the Entergy Tent. For five pesos, Kim will sell you a chance to win a deed to a crack house on Ridgeway Street stuffed in the Howard Industries pinata. Don't worry if the pinata is beaten to shreds, as Mr. Wade has Jose, Emmanuel, and Carlos, all illegal immigrants, available as replacements for the it. Upon leaving the Entergy tent, fig leaves will be available in case Entergy literally takes everything you have as part of its Trollfest ticket price adjustment charge.

Donna Ladd of The Jackson Free Press will give several classes on learning how to write. Smearing, writing without factchecking, and reporting only one side of a story will be covered. A donation to pay their taxes will be accepted and she will be signing copies of their former federal tax liens. Ms. Ladd will give a dramatic reading of her two award-winning essays (They received The Jackson Free Press "Best Of" awards.) "Why everything is always about me" and "Why I cover murders better than anyone else in Jackson".

In the spirit of helping those who are less fortunate, Trollfest '09 adopts a cause for which a portion of the proceeds and donations will be donated: Keeping Frank Melton in his home. The “Keep Frank Melton From Being Homeless” booth will sell chances for five dollars to pin the tail on the jackass. John Reeves has graciously volunteered to be the jackass for this honorable excursion into saving Frank's ass. What's an ass between two friends after all? If Mr. Reeves is unable to um, perform, Speaker Billy McCoy has also volunteered as when the word “jackass” was mentioned he immediately ran as fast as he could to sign up.


In order to help clean up the legal profession, Adam Kilgore of the Mississippi Bar will be giving away free, round-trip plane tickets to the North Pole where they keep their bar complaint forms (which are NOT available online). If you don't want to go to the North Pole, you can enjoy Brant Brantley's (of the Mississippi Commission on Judicial Performance) free guided tours of the quicksand field over by High Street where all complaints against judges disappear. If for some reason you are unable to control yourself, never fear; Judge Houston Patton will operate his jail where no lawyers are needed or allowed as you just sit there for minutes... hours.... months...years until he decides he is tired of you sitting in his jail. Do not think Judge Patton is a bad judge however as he plans to serve free Mad Dog 20/20 to all inmates.

Trollfest '09 is a pet-friendly event as well. Feel free to bring your dog with you and do not worry if your pet gets hungry, as employees of the Jackson Zoo will be on hand to provide some of their animals as food when it gets to be feeding time for your little loved one.

Relax at the Fox News Tent. Since there are only three blonde reporters in Jackson (being blonde is a requirement for working at Fox News), Megan and Kathryn from WAPT and Wendy from WLBT will be on loan to Fox. To gain admittance to the VIP section, bring either your Republican Party ID card or a Rebel Flag. Bringing both and a torn-up Obama yard sign will entitle you to free drinks served by Megan, Wendy, and Kathryn. Get your tickets now. Since this is an event for trolls, no ID is required. Just bring the hate. Bring the family, Trollfest '09 is for EVERYONE!!!

This is definitely a Beaver production.


Note: Security provided by INS.

Trollfest '07

Jackson Jambalaya is the home of Trollfest '07. Catch this great event which promises to leave NE Jackson & Fondren in flames. Sonjay Poontang and his band headline the night with a special steel cage, no time limit "loser must leave town" bout between Alan Lange and "Big Cat"Donna Ladd following afterwards. Kamikaze will perform his new song F*** Bush, he's still a _____. Did I mention there was no referee? Dr. Heddy Matthias and Lori Gregory will face off in the undercard dueling with dangling participles and other um, devices. Robbie Bell will perform Her two latest songs: My Best Friends are in the Media and Mama's, Don't Let Your Babies Grow up to be George Bell. Sid Salter of The Clarion-Ledger will host "Pin the Tail on the Trial Lawyer", sponsored by State Farm.

There will be a hugging booth where in exchange for your young son, Frank Melton will give you a loooong hug. Trollfest will have a dunking booth where Muhammed the terrorist will curse you to Allah as you try to hit a target that will drop him into a vat of pig grease. However, in the true spirit of Separate But Equal, Don Imus and someone from NE Jackson will also sit in the dunking booth for an equal amount of time. Tom Head will give a reading for two hours on why he can't figure out who the hell he is. Cliff Cargill will give lessons with his .80 caliber desert eagle, using Frank Melton photos as targets. Tackleberry will be on hand for an autograph session. KIM Waaaaaade will be passing out free titles and deeds to crackhouses formerly owned by The Wood Street Players.

If you get tired come relax at the Fox News Tent. To gain admittance to the VIP section, bring either your Republican Party ID card or a Rebel Flag. Bringing both will entitle you to free drinks.Get your tickets now. Since this is an event for trolls, no ID is required, just bring the hate. Bring the family, Trollfest '07 is for EVERYONE!!!

This is definitely a Beaver production.

Note: Security provided by INS
.