Jackson Jambalaya

We've got enough data for me to adjust the daily transmission rate. Sorry for the formatting... copy/paste from excel does not come across very well.

projected day date actual daily rate
207 Saturday 3/21/2020 207 1.24
257 Sunday 3/22/2020 249
318 Monday 3/23/2020 320
395 Tuesday 3/24/2020 377
489 Wednesday 3/25/2020 485
607 Thursday 3/26/2020
752 Friday 3/27/2020
933 Saturday 3/28/2020
1,157 Sunday 3/29/2020
1,435 Monday 3/30/2020
1,779 Tuesday 3/31/2020
2,206 Wednesday 4/1/2020
2,735 Thursday 4/2/2020
3,392 Friday 4/3/2020
4,206 Saturday 4/4/2020
5,215 Sunday 4/5/2020
6,467 Monday 4/6/2020
8,019 Tuesday 4/7/2020
9,944 Wednesday 4/8/2020
12,331 Thursday 4/9/2020
15,290 Friday 4/10/2020

Hopefully this is just a spike after the spring breakers and St. Patrick revelers tests are coming back. Things had been steady at 50-70 for five days. This isn’t going to be over for a while. Stay away from crowds even if you feel fine. We can get through this if we work together, but it only takes a few selfish, irresponsible individuals to keep the exponential increase going.

@10:29
A lot of wishful thinking. The algorithms are province themselves correct. We haven't even begun to see the worst in Mississippi.

Expect 1000 cases by Monday and 100 deaths by the April 1. And it will continue to double until there is no space left in hospitals.

The national guard should be mobilized already building tent hospitals on the fairgrounds of every county seat. But it won't happen. At least 2500-5000 Mississippians are going to die because we don't have real leaders.

@10:25 just can't get enough attention. Now he insists on demonstrating he's a spreadsheet jockey.

..NO... i don't think too many people can "get through it" after exhausting all their PTO/annual leave and then being on leave without pay or furlough. Mortgages and vehicle payments due for the poor working shleps like me.

Corona babies?
Rising unemployment?
Empty store shelves?
Closed schools?
Cheap gas?

This is insane

AT NOLA.com- headline on a story today is

Louisianians 'escaping' to Gulf Coast amid coronavirus pandemic has Mississippi leaders worried, report says

The suicide rate is about to spike, I'm afraid.

@10:36: If you were in charge of the covid response for the state, what would you do?

Would you force a mandated quarantine?

Who would be exempt?

A partial quarantine where you can only go to grocery stores, gas stations, mechanics, or doctors?

Would you shut down the state borders to keep infected people out?

Would you mandate all businesses shut down?

How long?

What say you.

Sixth death just announced. Where’s the dumbass who kept looking at just the one for so long without realizing the hundreds tested later still had to recover or die before a mortality rate could be established. This disease is much worse than the flu.

@11:26 AM
1.) Anyone in public should be wearing a mask, respirator, or any cloth to cofer their face and capture their respiratory vapors.
2.) Spare no expense preparing hospitals including the military mobile hospitals, deployed by the National guard.

If Tate and Trump did both then they would be heroes. Even if the national guard sat arundel twiddling thumbs after they set up tent hospitals. It would be better than their current response.

@11:26,
Nobody in public without a mask or face covering to block respiratory moisture.

Being caught in public without a mask is mandatory quarantine.
Problem solved. Super simple. No shutdown. Next.

Dept. of health can't process the amount of people being tested. They are currently waiting on about a 1000 or so samples they haven't gotten to yet due to the manual extractions they have to do. Some are being sent to Memphis for processing. There are plenty of samples taken but not the man power to process. With the additional help from Memphis and the one, maybe two private labs in the state, the numbers will increase and the ratios of deaths will decline. This is one reason we can't get hospital numbers accurately. i.e. those in icu, those released, those with mild conditions, and those who have recovered. The bottle neck: Manual extractions take half a day or more to process per sample and a limited number of people trained to perform them. Please trust this is getting better despite the increasing deaths.

Meanwhile, bars are listed as an exempt essential business by the State of Mississippi.

11:43. This has not come close to this years numbers of people get or dying from the flu. Just a fact. Besides one more week and the curve should be flattened enough to alleviate the "strain" on the system. No matter what we do past next week, the virus is here. It's a part of life and we should accept that and move forward.

"This disease is much worse than the flu. "

So you're saying a lot fewer than six people have died from influenza this season?

@10:41 When someone is losing a debate, the personal attacks start. This is high school math.

@12:01 Italy is weeks ahead of NY. NY is 2 weeks ahead of MS. Italy just peaked 2-3 days ago. So expect a month of steady increases unless something changes.

Folks, I don't make the rules of virus transmission. The people who are experts in this, the WHO/CDC/MSDH/etc, all will tell you this infection follows an exponential growth rate.

When I take the daily reports and easily find the correct math (24% currently) that fits the data this is not personal. The daily rate is not a reflection of your race, religion, personality, or otherwise.

It's a reflection (mathematical model) of population density, travel patterns, # of people you contact on a daily basis, how well you cover your mouth when you cough, how often you wash your hands, how often the businesses clean door handles and point of sale terminals, and so on.

Until something fundamentally changes, we can expect a 24% increase each and every day.

And for what it's worth, I've had a blogger account for 16 years, longer than the fish himself, so this isn't some new account spun up for the sole purpose of the virus threads.

At the expense of repeating myself, I left my home, went outside, the sun, that big beautiful global warming sun, was shining bright. The sky, that gorgeously, magnificent, perfectly blue, sky was right where it always is. That big beautiful sky wasn't showing any, I repeat, any sign of falling. Fear mongers, take your psychotic ass outside, and get a different view of the world. This also shall pass.

The free enterprise system at work when the Defense Production Act should have been utilized months ago: Louisiana Docs Are Buying Hospital Gowns On eBay Due To Supply Shortages

Clueless is just another word for doesn't give a sh*t.

Anyone trying to say this is less worrisome than the flu is a moron who needs to be found out and put in a mandatory quarantine so their dumb ass doesn’t spread this any further. I realize people here were educated in Mississippi, but have some common sense and listen to the doctors about crap you obviously don’t understand.

@10:36

Thank you.

But it will continue to spread until something stops it, well past the point that hospitals have become full.

Ask the dinosaurs if the sun was shining when they were wiped out. Sometimes shit happens.

Ole Miss cured AIDS!! We can beat this!!

Some readers are trying to inject Trump into every comment or discussion, regardless of the subject. Just stop. I'll post a threat in the next day or two that gives you a chance to fire away at him to your heart's content but quit trying to hijack threads. Not going to happen.

@12:07 We are just at the beginning of this pandemic. You can’t compare absolute numbers unless you are trying to be deliberately misleading. What is undeniable is that the virus is at least as contagious as the flu and has a much higher mortality rate when you look at the results after patients have either recovered or died. The estimates for flu deaths this year are 20,000 - 60,000 in the U.S. There is almost no way without a massive lockdown that we won’t greatly exceed that number by December. Please stay inside in your own little fantasy world.

I have my doubts as to the sun shining when the dinosaurs were made extinct. It has been theorized that an asteroid event caused their demise, through a combination of factors. One of those factors being a blocking of the sun's light, and warmth. It is entirely possible the sun was not shining at the time of their extinction. I wasn't there, I can't say with certainty.
I am certain the sun is shining, today, as I have already stated. I am also certain of this, death will come for us ALL. Whether, it is today, or at another time. No amount of fear mongering will alter this in any way. All this fear, and fear mongering comes from a faithless people.

Tim Alberta
@TimAlberta 17h
You often hear government officials say "there's no playbook for dealing with this."

Except, in the case of this pandemic, there *was* a playbook -- literally, a secretive NSC document with "PLAYBOOK" stamped on it.

@ddiamond & @nahaltoosi with the goods


Trump team failed to follow NSC’s pandemic playbook

The 69-page document, finished in 2016, provided a step by step list of priorities – which were then ignored by the administration.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/25/trump-coronavirus-national-security-council-149285

Dan Diamond
@ddiamond
We’ve now uploaded the full White House pandemic playbook, color-coded rubrics and all.

https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/6819258-Playbook.html#document/p2

And for what it's worth, I've had a blogger account for 16 years ...

Oh, well, that settles it. Say no more, say no more. THE Authority has spoken.

hey 1:48 how can you say that CV-19 is at least as contagious as the flu. We have have well more than 35 MILLION cases of the flu in this country since October, according to the CDC. What the eff are you smoking?

@10:36
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238578-uk-has-enough-intensive-care-units-for-coronavirus-expert-predicts/

Looks like the early estimates needed to be revised lower.

Using todays numbers of 485 infected, that gives us 485 ÷ 2900000 = 0.00016724137931034 = 0.016724137931034% of the state population infected. Not everyone infected is using a hospital bed or vent. No information on recoveries as of yet. Using the current data on deaths, 5 ÷ 485 = 0.010309278350515 = 1.0309278350515%. I'm sure my math is correct but please check it and supply the work in the margin. I'm sure many will say I'm wrong but this is nowhere near the level of the flu. And no, the sun was not shining when the dino's died. My wife and I were there. CDC estimates* that, from October 1, 2019, through March 14, 2020, there have been: 38,000,000 – 54,000,000 flu illnesses with 390,000 – 710,000 flu hospitalizations, resulting in 23,000 – 59,000 flu deaths. There were 17,000,000 – 25,000,000
flu medical visits over that period of time.

Forgot to add that Executive Orders is a techno-thriller novel, written by Tom Clancy and released on July 1, 1996. However, the Ebola epidemic causes the President to declare martial law and enforce a travel ban (air and vehicular with the exception of trucks delivering goods) in an effort to contain the virus for the Iranian government, finding out a strain of the Ebola virus in Zaire and weaponizing it. Good read and can take up time.

@2:38 Excellent. Glad you see it my way. It saves time.

For those comparing COVID-19 to the flu, I offer the following excerpts from a 2009 book on infectious diseases, including statistics on the 1918 influenza pandemic. We have now pretty much accepted the flu as a normal fact of life, and we don't really alter our behavior to account for it outside of (maybe) an annual vaccine, but in 1918 it killed more than 50 million people.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK45714/

Hopefully natural selection will take its course and leave Mississippi a little smarter when this is all done. Unfortunately most people f the morons not taking the medical advice are old and have already passed on their inferior genes.

An interesting tidbit on cv-19 - the number of folks who get tested, but are found negative. In MS as of today, 2,291 out of 2,776 tested were negative. That means a lot of people, thinking they are feeling poorly and fearing the wuflu, finally got confirmation that no, they are just regular sick with the crud. Other states show similar negatives. NY, for example, has 85K negative out of 122K tested.

https://covidtracking.com/data/#MS

@2:24PM, does your post really change the situation we are dealing with? Right now what we have is what we have. No amount of blame will change one dam thing. No one will be stopped from catching Covid19, nor will anyone recover from Covid19, because of the placement of blame. Grow the hell up. Between your kind, the ones who want a "got you moment" and the fear mongers the world stays in an agitated state. @4:30PM, you really should invest in a dictionary, and look up the word sarcasm. Because, @ 2:38 is a master with it, sarcasm that is.

Texas clamps down on NOLA

https://www.nola.com/news/coronavirus/article_1539d410-6f99-11ea-aadb-27bb4a5e0500.html

I thought the 13th check was the only thing that grew exponentially.