Jackson Jambalaya

Did I miss a re-weighting on the CU poll? It looked as if the respondents voted for McDaniel by 9 pts on 6/3. If not adjusted to reflect the 6/3 turnout, it's not worth the paper its printed on.

I had the same thought. If you re-weigh basing on the way his sample came in, it comes out pretty close to Chism's conclusions.

I had the same thought. If you re-weigh basing on the way his sample came in, it comes out pretty close to Chism's conclusions.

Really? Care to share your math?

Show me a poll that adjusts the results based on the question and responses to CU Q3? You seem to be implying that all 7%, or nearly all, of those who "REFUSED' to respond to Q3 should be placed into the Cochran column. Chism's Q6 is future support, not June 3 support.

The unweighted age and sex samples in the CU poll are superior without need for adjustment than Chism. Chism unweighted 65+ = 72% and Female = %62%. Chism poll was automated and inherently less accurate than the CU poll was conducted by live screeners.

Though I will say that Chism has done a good job adjusting his samples to provide a more accurate fit of the MS electorate and was solid on June 3rd.

Regardless, taking all the post-primary polling done so far, inclusive of the two from Chism, the McDaniel floor is 47% while the Cochran ceiling is 48%. The pivot of the Cochran campaign in the past couple of days to attack ads bears that out.

There's an interesting WPA Opinion Research poll from last Friday at: https://mcdaniel2014.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/CM_GOP-Primary-Runoff-Polling-Memo_140611-NS-edits.pdf The WPA poll is interesting not only because it discusses the "runoff effect" on incumbents, it also discusses polls from early last week including last week's Chism Strategies poll and last week's Strategic National poll.

In any event, the WPA poll gives the edge to McDaniel by 8%. Like this week's Strategic National poll, it claims a higher percentage of undecided's. In the WPA poll, undecided's are 10%. In the new Chism poll, undecided's are 5%. Note that in the Strategic National poll from early last week, undecided's were only 2%. In last's week's Chism poll, undecided's were only 1% - one fifth of what Chism now says.

I suppose you could argue that people are getting uncomfortable with McDaniel and so they are moving away from him. I think that's extremely unlikely. That assumes people who voted for McDaniel less than two weeks ago when most people thought he would lose are suddenly becoming squeamish about supporting their guy now that victory seems within grasp?

The more likely cause of the increase in undecided's is a result of the pollsters' assumptions about who will show up to vote on June 24. But making such predictions seems like hocus pocus to me. Will Cochran's strategy to get Democrats to the polls work? Who knows. Will McDaniel's expectation that its people will vote on June 24 while Thad's voters will be less likely to do so prove accurate? Who knows. But I don't think pollsters have any more predictive insight than you or I.

One more interesting twist. Chism Strategies usually works for Democrats.

Regarding the "Potty mouth McDaniel" ad that Thad Cochran ran in the post below: If you like Haley Barbour then don't be offended. I spent a half hour in a meeting with Barbour once. Haley Barbour is likely the most profane person I have ever been around.

No, I don't approve of McDaniel's potty mouth. But if you supported Haley Barbour in the past, then don't let this ad bother you.

I'm still undecided on who to vote for in the runoff. I do wish Cochran would allow people to respond to his ads.

Chism Strategies usually works for Democrats.

Considering what his polls are, and are not, in this race I'm not seeing any inherent bias in his work. He's not playing coy with his results and he is having to make significant weighting adjustments. Chism has been transparent with the data.

He himself is most definitely a Democrat hired gun. If you believe he has a bias which candidate do you think he favors?

Five (5) MS Senate Run-off Poll Average:

McDaniel = 50.2%
Cochran = 44.6%

McDaniel +5.6%.

The Chism poll was actually the most accurate pre-primary poll, with the CU & Harper polls being way off.
One comment about the CU poll though, when your topline sample voted 51-42 for McDaniel, with no weighting, how does that not make the poll self fulfilling? With the Chism poll, the topline actually showed Cochran with a 4 pt. lead, but when weighted for anticipated turnout, the lead was down to 1.

Thad Cochran: I Grew Up Doing 'All Kinds of Indecent Things with Animals' “I know some of you know what that is,” “The whole point of the story is not just coming here to visit cousins and get to know aunts and uncles better, you absorb the culture and you know what’s important to people here.”

I'm sure the cousins are happy he stopped at his sexual romps in the barn with the livestock.
Unless McDaniel admits to raping the livestock like Thad did he's got this one in the bag.

Senile old idiot. I can't believe he said that! He can side step and deflect all he wants. He said WITH animals.Not to animals. I don't think he was talking about cow tipping in the middle of the night.

Well done Thad! You shamed Mississippi yet again.

I have to say that after reading most KF stories over the years this has to be the most educated commenting group by far.

One comment about the CU poll though, when your topline sample voted 51-42 for McDaniel, with no weighting, how does that not make the poll self fulfilling?

7% REFUSED to answer Q3. The sample is 51+42+7, NOT 51-42. What don't you understand about that?

So is the general consensus is that McDaniel is likely to win the run off?

Betcha more Cochran supporters show up this time. The rest of this doesn't matter.

I understand everything about that. Assume the 7% split 50/50, then your arounf 54-46 topline which is biased towards McDaniel. Sam Hall just said basically the same thing:

Two things stand out looking at this poll:

The sample includes 51 percent of respondents who voted for McDaniel and 42 percent who voted for Cochran in the June 3 primary. Given that we're likely to see little movement among those voters, the poll starts off with a sizable bias toward McDaniel.
The regional breakdown also heavily favors McDaniel. Sixty-nine percent of respondents come from the southern part of the state, which includes the metro area. That's probably high by at least five percentage points.

What about that don't you understand?

Had the runoff been held within a week of the primary, McDaniel had some momentum and might have won. That said, its over. Cochran supporters will be coming out of the woodwork, and there aren't many addition votes for McDaniel to pick up. He already got the votes that were apt to vote for him. Cochran wins by at least 5%.

@4:47 p.m. says "Betcha more Cochran supporters show up this time."

If so, Cochran wins. However, that is unlikely.

1) Runoffs always have a lighter turnout.

2) A poor showing by an incumbent in a primary usually suppresses his support in subsequent elections.

3) All polling as well as anecdotal evidence suggests McDaniel's supporters are more motivated.

4) Cochran unleashed is Cochran off-script. Cochran off-script means bizarre statements directly feeding the narrative that he is old and senile.

5) You can't manufacture an effective ground game in three weeks.

6) Cochran previously benefitted from Republicans who showed up to vote for the Congressional races, Steve Palazzo versus Gene Taylor in particular. Republican congressional primaries will be on the ballot on June 24. However, Democrats will have a runoff in the Fourth Congressional District which will take away at least some of the cross-over votes Cochran is courting.

7) Cochran has gone intensely negative. McDaniel is "extreme", "radical" and "dangerous." That may scare some African-Americans into voting for Cochran but it is just as likely to make many whites disgusted and stay home.

8) Cochran remains vulnerable to negative attacks. As much as most posters on this website would like to contend to the contrary, Cochran has said and done some very accommodating things re ObamaCare, Immigration Amnesty, tax hikes, liberal Obama appointments, and deficit spending. Also, his relationship with Kay Webber could reassert itself as an issue anytime. The internet is loaded with photos of Cochran and Webber together in couple situations - photos that the average Cochran voter has not yet seen. For example, go to: https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=692669470769462&set=a.611760208860389.1073741828.100000792452055&type=1&theater



For an in depth analysis of both the CU poll and the most recent Chism Strategies poll, check out: http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2014/06/16/Poll-Shows-McDaniel-With-12-Point-Lead


Now, tell me where you think I'm wrong.

You know nothing about polling. Good luck locating your navel.

5:36 -- First of all by trusting and touting Breitbart as your news link. (We educate ourselves and understand that not all news organizations are unbiased).

Second --- everything you said sounds more hopeful than factual.

Third -- there have been MANY intellectual analysis of the polls -- you didn't refute any of those with regard to weighting, etc., you just promoted a party line. (Hope and Change). How's that worked out for us?

Anonymous 6:08 PM shoots the media messenger.

Seems to me there are a couple of problems with both these polls.

First of all, you are missing a lot of voters when you are restricted to land line phones. Hardly any people in the 18-45 age group still have land lines.

Secondly, both seem to fail to factor in what Democrats who didn't vote in the Democratic primary might do.

Limiting the African American and " other" vote to 5% seems to me to be problematic.

That group could decide either than McDaniel will give the Democratic and better chance and turn out for him or decide that McDaniel's views are too threatening and vote for Than now and Childers .

Generally speaking, I don't see Brad Chism as putting his business at risk to skew the data despite his Democratic leanings. That would be stupid and he's definitely not stupid.

5:36 -- Kay Webber -- please stop trying to throw that out again, and again, and again (one Kay Webber is trumped by 4 felony arrest and a 2:00 wakeup call at the Courthouse)......and you know what they say about NEGATIVE advertising -- it's only NEGATIVE if its against YOU -- some people say it's shining the light of truth, as uncomfortable as it might be............so mamacita -- bring it on.

If your candidate wins -- he'll be ripped to pieces by the Democrats -- he's the gift that keeps on giving and giving and giving. Your candidate has feet of clay. Should have chosen more wisely grasshopper.

you are missing a lot of voters when you are restricted to land line phones.

Show us where all the post-June 3 polls have stated that restriction.

Citizen's United, along with Ms. Conway (Kellyanne) are shills of the Tea Party. Just do basic google searches.......and you'll find that they tout their "CONTROVERSIAL" methodologies, especially on the Citizens United website.

Is it POSSIBLE that this is a controversial poll with very little scientific basis, that they've STRETCHED and now will utilize for propaganda/exploitive purposes. (Remember that great push poll we all received before the June 3rd primary). If you say something enough, then it becomes fact (or at least that's their plan)

Chism was closer on June 3rd, and more importantly, 12 points by CU -- give me a break. I could take 2, 3, but 12 points?? Kind of blew your credibility on this one guys and in this case, the messenger (CU) is problematic and has an agenda, which makes us doubt the numbers.

Hope McDaniel plans on having better mathematicians if he's elected. He'll need them with all the "cutting and slashing" he's planning on doing.

@5:36 PM. You are correct. I had not seen those pictures of Thad and Kay Webber. They make such a handsome couple.

So Thad was lying to us when he said that his relationship with Miss Weber was professional. Will the cover-up be worse than the original sin? We'll see.

Cantor was supposed to win by 30 points.

Just sayin'.

7:54 -- on the other hand -- we're waiting for that Grand Jury in Madison -- will the cover up be worse than the original sin there also?

Also -- we enjoyed those mugshots of Clayton, et.al also -- they were QUITE the handsome group too!

MCDaniel is a Cliff Finch in a suit. This is the last candidate Mississippi needs to elect. Have you seen his bodyguards? What a bunch of tools. Stand up Mississippi and shut this loser down now!

Thad's turnout will be higher, much higher. He finally has grownups running his campaign and has pro's running turnout in various geo areas of the state. Also, do you think it is any coincidence that every day a different story covering various constincuiences. Hank Bounds and higher education today, leading Coast buisnessmen and economic impact on Friday etc. It looks like the campaign started hitting its stride mid week last week and has some real momentum building. now.

The key point of the Chism poll is women being 53%. I would expect Cochran to win the women vote because more women understand that burning down everything that the government touches in order to make sure that no poor people get anything would be stupid.

Cochran says he's not running for the debate team. However, apparently he is running for the on–the–taxpayer–dime travel team.

Within the last few days, Cochran told Bert Case that Kay Webber often accompanied him with the approval of other congressmen and senators. There are now numerous calls for Cochran to name just one such congressman or senator. So far, his campaign has stonewalled all such requests. Meanwhile, no congressman or senator has come forward to support Cochran's unusual and unsubstantiated claim.

According to the Congressional Record, where trip details including cost are listed, Webber has traveled with Cochran at taxpayer expense to 42 countries across five continents since 2002. For example, Cochran and Webber traveled eight times to France, five times to Italy, four times to Israel, and twice to Japan.

The full list of countries they traveled to includes: Italy, France, Brussels, Ireland, the United Kingdom, Belgium, Hungary, Russia, Norway, Germany, Spain, Portugal, Greece, Malta, Austria, and Czech Republic in Europe; Colombia, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay, Argentina, and Chile in South America; Guatemala, and Mexico in North and Central America; Japan, China, Kyrgyzstan, Malaysia, Vietnam, Hong Kong, the Republic of the Philippines, and South Korea in Asia; Turkey, Jordan, Israel, Azerbaijan, Oman, and United Arab Emirates in the Middle East, to Morocco; and Egypt, Cape Verde, and South Africa in Africa.

Other documents show that in 2005 and 2007, the Wine Institute, a trade association that represents the California wine industry, paid for Cochran's and Webber's travel to Sonoma, California for what a disclosure form described as “a fact-finding program on issues of importance to the wine industry.” No other aides attended the trip.

The Congressional Record lists 33 trips that Cochran and Webber attended together. According to that record, the cost to the American taxpayer of Webber's travel was at least $155,000.

@9:22 You just pasted 4 inches of copy, named a bazillion countries visited only to end it with "cost to the American taxpayer of Webber's travel was at least $155,000?" If that's really true Cochran should be commended on thrifty travel.

The Coast will sway this election. Albeit close, but Cochran will take out CM. the Black Suit jar heads and Little House on the Prairie fundamentalists dead fish are not the real Mississippi folk. We outnumber you TeaBilly wackos. We outnumber you!

YO! @ 11:03 PM..when you finish up on your barnyard chores tonight I strongly suggest you take the tin foil down from your windows so you can see the change that is coming! If you are skeptical give Eric Cantor a shout out!

7:22 pm read the " notes" . It's number 1 in the notes.

But, even if there weren't explanatory notes with the poll, the cell phone problem has been mentioned often in a wide variety of places(books,articles,television for starters).

And I learned 50 years ago that if you are going to believe research is accurate, you have to know how it was conducted and if there are restrictions. Bad research design, unreliable results. Restrictions can alter the results and are a cautionary flag.



SIGH

6:29 am Try keeping up. Brat went to Democrats to get their support in getting rid of Kantor.

With a 12% turnout, it worked.

Nobody liked Kantor anymore as he'd gotten very arrogant and didn't focus on representing his state but on national ambitions.

Trammel, a Democrat, will win now.

Sorry...Cantor with a C. I think of him with a K for obvious reasons. Freudian moment.

7:28 -- No reason to explain to them. Even if your reasoning is completely valid, factual and on target, the McDanielites are on a mission from Bo and Ti (pronounced Tea) and will not stop until they have all put on their black and white Nike Decades Tennis shoes, their Black sweatsuits, and have their $5 bill and three quarters in their pocket, (would have been another dollar bill, but they're working on cutting costs) and are waiting on the "beam up". They are all true believers.

Beyond Chism June 17, 2014 at 7:18 AM doesn't know what they don't know.

"And I learned 50 years ago that if you are going to believe research is accurate, you have to know how it was conducted and if there are restrictions. Bad research design, unreliable results. Restrictions can alter the results and are a cautionary flag."

Correct, but too wordy.

"GIGO" will suffice :-)

Soliciting democrat votes in the republican primary won't do anything except get Cochran through the primary... maybe.

But does Cochran REALLY think those democrats are going to vote for him again in the general election, too? Really?

I don't. I think they will happily vote for their fellow democrat Childers.

Democrats are going to vote democrat when they have the choice. That's what makes them democrats.

Wake up, Cochran campaign!

Um, @ 7:29 AM ....before you try to insult someone with your cleverness you probably should learn to spell and just maybe you can keep up! CANTOR would be the correct spelling.