Sunday, January 19, 2025

Bill Crawford: House Tax Cut Plan Raises Taxes and Revives Tax on Tax

The tax train zoomed through the Mississippi House of Representatives. What Ways and Means Committee chair Trey Lamar calls “one of the most transformational pieces of legislation that this state has ever seen” got referred to his committee on Friday January 10th and passed out of the House the next Thursday.

The 107 page bill would eliminate the state personal income tax (with exceptions) by 2037, cut the state sales tax on groceries from 7% to 2.5% by 2036, replace the 18.5% sales tax diversion to municipalities with a 1.5% local sales tax, add a new county sales tax of 1.5%, add a 5% sales tax on top of the existing 18.5 cent-per-gallon state tax on fuel, and move millions of dollars in funds from one agency to another. (The local taxes would still apply to groceries.)

Speaker Jason White and his team clearly do not agree with Gov. Tate Reeves that income taxes can be eliminated with no increase in other taxes. Added taxes in their bill recoup about half the cost of the income tax cut.

Clearly House leaders believe future revenue growth will be sufficient to cut current revenues by $1.1 billion. No triggers to delay cuts should revenues fall are included in the bill.

House leaders clearly have no problem taxing taxes. The proposed 5% sales tax on fuel sales would tax the 18.4 cent-per-gallon federal tax and the 18.5 cent-per-gallon state tax on gasoline (the federal tax on diesel is 24.4 cents per gallon). Eliminating the tax on taxes was a key selling point for passing the 1987 highway bill.

House leaders clearly have no problem burdening elderly and low-income taxpayers while benefitting high-income taxpayers. For example, the thousands of Mississippians on food stamps, many of whom work, would get little benefit from the grocery tax cut or the income tax cut, but would pay up for non-grocery and gasoline purchases. The income cut along with the grocery tax cut should more than offset increased sales and fuel taxes for high-income taxpayers.

The House’s tax train will likely slowdown in the Senate. Lt. Gov. Delbert Hosemann has said the state should be guarded in cutting taxes, citing declining growth in tax collections. He insisted the state needs a “balanced approach to taxation” and should keep a low personal income tax as a revenue source.

His approach cuts personal income taxes to 3% and the sales tax on groceries to 3.5%. With the state keeping municipalities sales tax share whole, this eliminates the need to increase local sales taxes and avoids the 5% tax on tax for fuel sales. Hosemann said his approach also provides the state sufficient revenues to fund roads and bridges.

Given our history of revenue shortfalls and underfunded programs, it might be wise to ride the slower train for a while.

“A wise man thinks ahead” – Proverbs 13:16.

Crawford is the author of A Republican’s Lament: Mississippi Needs Good Government Conservatives.

8 comments:

TAX SWAP! said...

As HB1 is currently written it is a "tax swap," marketed to the sheeple by RINOs using smoke and mirrors. Hopefully Senate Finance will gut this pig.

EVERYONE! Please email your respective Senator and oppose the TAX SWAP! If you are a retiree your TAXES WILL INCREASE as written.

Anonymous said...

No biggie. If you are a retiree, just do what the young folks do. Leave! Won’t be anything left but suckers!

Anonymous said...

This lazy, but here’s what ChatGPT has to say about it.

Here’s a breakdown of how the proposed changes to Mississippi’s tax structure might affect a household, focusing on groceries, fuel, and overall sales tax burden:

1. Groceries
• Current Sales Tax: 7%
• On $1,000 monthly grocery spending, tax = $70.
• Proposed Sales Tax: 2.5% (state) + 1.5% (local) = 4%
• On $1,000 monthly grocery spending, tax = $40.
• Savings: $30/month or $360/year for a household spending $1,000 on groceries monthly.

2. Fuel
• Current Tax: 18.5 cents/gallon
• On 60 gallons/month, tax = $11.10/month.
• Proposed Tax: 18.5 cents + 5% sales tax
• At $2.94/gallon, the additional 5% = ~15 cents/gallon. New tax = 33.5 cents/gallon.
• On 60 gallons/month, tax = $20.10/month.
• Increase: $9/month or $108/year.

3. Local Sales Tax Diversion
• Current System: 18.5% of state sales tax revenue is allocated to municipalities.
• Proposed System: Replace this with a new 1.5% local sales tax.
• Example: A household spending $2,000/month on taxable goods (excluding groceries and fuel) would pay $30/month in local sales tax.

4. Overall Impact
• Savings on Groceries: ~$360/year.
• Increase in Fuel Tax: ~$108/year.
• Added Local Sales Tax: Highly dependent on taxable spending patterns (e.g., $30/month = $360/year for $2,000/month spending).

Net Effect for a Household:
• For a household spending $1,000 on groceries, $2,000 on taxable goods, and consuming 60 gallons of fuel monthly:
• Savings: $360/year on groceries.
• Increased costs: $468/year ($108 fuel + $360 local tax).
• Net Change: ~$108 annual increase in tax burden.

Anonymous said...

Last one…

You said:
Run the same analysis for both household impact and state revenue impact based on this alternate plan. The House’s tax train will likely slowdown in the Senate. Lt. Gov. Delbert Hosemann has said the state should be guarded in cutting taxes, citing declining growth in tax collections. He insisted the state needs a “balanced approach to taxation” and should keep a low personal income tax as a revenue source. His approach cuts personal income taxes to 3% and the sales tax on groceries to 3.5%. With the state keeping municipalities sales tax share whole, this eliminates the need to increase local sales taxes and avoids the 5% tax on tax for fuel sales. Hosemann said his approach also provides the state sufficient revenues to fund roads and bridges.
ChatGPT said:
ChatGPT
Analysis for the Alternate Plan
Household Impact:
* Grocery Tax Savings (annual): $420
* Income Tax Savings (annual): $14.40
* Total Household Savings (annual): $434.40

State Revenue Impact:
* New Income Tax Revenue (3% flat rate): $1.26 billion
* New Grocery Sales Tax Revenue (3.5% rate): $270 million
* Total Replacement Revenue (alternate plan): $1.53 billion
Revenue Shortfall:
* Shortfall Compared to Current Revenue: $1.11 billion

This plan provides households with modest savings while reducing state revenue by a larger margin compared to the current system. The revenue shortfall highlights the challenge of balancing tax reductions with funding needs. Would you like suggestions for bridging this gap?
You said:
Would you say that either of these plans succeeds in living up to the following proverb. “A wise man thinks ahead” – Proverbs 13:16.
ChatGPT said:
ChatGPT
The proverb "A wise man thinks ahead" (Proverbs 13:16) suggests careful planning, foresight, and considering the long-term consequences of actions. Evaluating the two tax plans against this standard depends on their alignment with these principles:

First Plan (Eliminate Income Tax)
* Pros:
* Offers bold tax reform with the goal of attracting residents and businesses.
* Provides immediate relief on groceries and fuel, which could benefit low- to middle-income families.
* Retains more municipal sales tax, potentially stabilizing local government budgets.
* Cons:
* Leaves a significant revenue shortfall (~$884 million annually), risking underfunding critical state services like roads, bridges, education, and healthcare.
* Relies heavily on speculative future growth to close gaps, which is uncertain.
* Long phase-in (to 2037) makes it hard to predict success in maintaining fiscal balance.
Verdict: This plan lacks sufficient foresight in securing stable revenue streams to replace the income tax, making it less aligned with the proverb's wisdom.

Second Plan (Retain 3% Income Tax)
* Pros:
* Keeps a balanced approach by retaining some income tax revenue.
* Avoids additional taxes on fuel, reducing strain on households and businesses.
* Focuses on gradual grocery tax reductions, maintaining a more stable fiscal outlook.
* Cons:
* Still leaves a substantial revenue shortfall (~$1.11 billion annually), potentially requiring future adjustments.
* While less risky, it doesn’t fully address the long-term sustainability of the tax system.
Verdict: This plan shows more foresight than the first but still falls short of a comprehensive long-term strategy to maintain state funding stability.

Overall Assessment
Neither plan fully embodies the wisdom of thinking ahead as described in Proverbs 13:16. Both create significant revenue gaps without clear solutions, which could lead to financial strain in the future. A truly "wise" plan would prioritize stability, fairness, and sustainable growth while minimizing risks to critical state services. Would you like to explore adjustments that could align these plans more closely with the proverb's intent?

Anonymous said...

If this bill becomes law, I have a feeling someone is coming up pregnant.

Anonymous said...

Using ChatGPT for an analysis is analogous to using Harris or Biden.

Capt Frag said...

18.5% of state sales tax revenue is allocated to municipalities.

As written, incorrect.

Anonymous said...

The biggest "transformation" is going to be more Dems getting elected in Mississippi IF they can find some people with at least half a brain to run. I don't mind the "tax swap" as much as I do these Republican "lawmakers" thinking I'm naïve enough to believe their BS. For clarity, I've been a Republican for longer than most of these little tax pimps have lived.



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