The angst reflected by disparaging TV ads from both camps suggests the November 7 vote in the governor’s race between Gov. Tate Reeves and Northern District Public Service Commissioner Brandon Presley could be close.
An early October poll commissioned by the Reeves-leaning Magnolia Tribune gave the Governor an eight point lead 51% to 43%. A week later the Presley campaign said a poll showed the race was a “dead heat” at 48% to 47%.
Meanwhile, independent candidate Gwendolyn Gray said she was withdrawing from the race and endorsed Presley. However, due to her late decision, her name will still be on the ballot. Election history indicates she should still draw from one to three percent of the vote.
Unless there is a protest vote.
You may recall that Reeves won the Republican primary in August by a noticeably lower margin than his two GOP predecessors in their runs for re-election. Reeves’ two opponents got a hefty 25% of the vote. Gov. Phil Bryant’s opponent in 2015 got 8%. In 2007 Gov. Haley Barbour’s opponent got 7%.
Some political prognosticators saw a protest vote of 5% to 10% buried in that 25% margin. “Republicans who don’t like Tate,” explained one.
Among those who like to comment on the Jackson Jambalaya blog, a number have said they will not vote for Reeves but also will not vote for a Democrat, leaving them to vote for Gray or not vote in the governor’s race.
Helping spur speculation have been higher than usual unfavorable poll ratings for the incumbent governor. A September poll commissioned by Presley leaning Mississippi Today showed nearly half of those surveyed had unfavorable opinions of Reeves.
One difference in this year’s general election comes from the constitutional amendment voters passed in 2020 on how to handle governor races when no candidate receives a majority of the vote. In the past, as when Ronnie Musgrove ran against Mike Parker, such a result would throw the race to the House of Representatives. The amendment now requires a run-off election three weeks after the general election.
The notion that Republican dislike for Reeves will keep him from getting a majority has spread across the state. A recent headline in the Biloxi Sun-Herald read, “Could the 2023 Mississippi governor’s race be decided by a runoff? Yeah, it could happen.”
A significant protest vote could dip Reeves below 50%. But most predict the results this year will be similar to the results four years ago when Reeves beat Attorney General Jim Hood 51.9% to 46.8%.
“Don’t get involved in foolish arguments, which only upset people and make them angry” – 2 Timothy 2:23.
Crawford is a syndicated columnist from Jackson.
37 comments:
Keep hitting that bong, Bill.
The only rave I am voting democrat.
“Presley leaning Mississippi Today”, I would say they are firmly positioned on their knees for Presley, but that's just my opinion.
More than a few Hinds County Republicans realized Tate wanted to play politics during the water crisis and with crime and withheld needed funds when we needed solutions. And,those of us who appreciate the conservative behavior of Hosemann compared to Tate, also realize that Presley is the classic Dixiecrat not a liberal.
Indeed, many of us even read enough to know Tate is making up stuff in his attack ads while Presley doesn't have to do that. His administration actually has been scandal ridden.
So, again...with women and urban dwellers, even in Mississippi, Tate trying to be like Jordan or Gaetz won't play well. That's a schtick that is no longer entertaining when war looms. Then we don't want the class clowns in charge. We don't want the show-off or braggerts, we want those who take their job seriously and WORK.
The party is over, or haven't you noticed? Politics is no longer a game for personal gain or amusement. It's no longer about unborn children, it's about all children. It's not about party political BS, it's about national survival. Trent Kelly,Micheal Guest, and Mike Ezell need to beat some sense into the " Freedom Caucus" clowns! We need a military that's ready to act and has leaders who have time to learn what their staff can or can't do and we need to be able to vote on getting aid to our proven allies instead of expecting our social "buddies" who laugh at our jokes to step up! We can't declare war if there's another Pearl Harbor today! It takes BOTH houses of Congress and one is " missing in action"!!!!
Tate saved the damn city during the water crisis even as the leadership attacked him. Just wish he would have supported the utility district bill.
I am a lifelong Republican and Trump caused me to vote Democrat for the first time in my life and Tate will cause me to do it for the second time!! Republicans can't govern and whats happening in DC proves it.
I would probably vote for Presley if I could become comfortable with his appointments, particularly judicial vacancies and his steering clear of the Democratic National Committee. The former is unknown and the latter is unlikely. DNC would parade Presley and I suspect he would be forever indebted and beholden to the national party.
RMQ
@9:19, me thinks @10:16 is drinking Bill’s bong water
October 15, 2023 at 10:16 AM, I thought Mr. Reeves was running for governor of Mississippi, a state office. Your rant was more centered on national issues, but you knew this already.
I would like to know where, and how, Mr. Reeves withheld funds from the city of Jackson. You boldly stated this now prove it.
i think Presley would behave similarly to Joe Manchin. He's got to get elected so surely self preservation instincts will keep his appointments non radical. radical is radical in any party and Tate sure is showing what happens when someone doesn't do what the public wants. we want medicaid expansion..
Crawford named the polling organization he claims favored Reeves, but he didn't have the balls to name the imaginary Presley 'poll'. And in so doing, Crawford insinuates the Reeves poll is invalid since he believes it was run by a Reeves-Leaning organization. (Your panty-lines are showing Crawford).
I can claim a mystery poll shows this or that all day long, in an attempt to persuade potential voters.
Crawford does another belly-flop in the shallow-end while attempting to be relevant.
10:16 AM - As a Hinds County republican I can say that nothing you said about Tate is true. He stepped in to help, got crapped on by the Lumumba administration, and still helped. He showed this Hinds County republican what leadership looks like, and thank God he did, especially when contrasted with Lumumba's absence of leadership. KF has proven the lies of Lumumba and the mismanagement the water system has suffered under Lumumba's "leadership".
Also, I agree with 1:44 PM that we need Medicaid expansion. Health care is in such bad repair, and bad results, that the state should put their hands on every dollar we can get to make it better. I will lead the way arguing that health care shouldn't have the rate of inflation it does and things need to change, but until it does we need more money to get services to everyone who needs it. Tate' latest act will help hospitals fiscally, and I support that, but we still need more. Social insurance is not a bad thing y'all.
Good catch @2:22.
My family and friends are tired of Reeves type republicans in Ms & in congress. Those right wingers will not compromise. And Reeves refuses to work with moderate republicans or any democrat. Presley will work with the center and there are a number of democrats, both white & black, willing to work across party lines to get things done.
Get Presley to post his donor list. It tells you all you need to know.
I’ve never voted for Tate despite voting overwhelmingly republican in recent years. I have to admit he’s been better than I thought, although that isn’t saying much. I am surprised that he’s more disliked than Phil Bryant. Tate is at least a smart guy, Phil was a bumbling buffoon and not particularly apologetic about it. Presley is a Dixiecrat in the mold of Hood and Gene Taylor. Maybe the last of his kind. But he’s not even as strong as Hood was, so I don’t see how Tate doesn’t beat him considering he was able to hold off 2 strong candidates last time in Hood and Waller. I don’t know who I’ll vote for. I may be a protest vote for Presley as well. The Barbour machine needs to go away, considering Barbour himself was the only competent governor to come out of it. Giving us a mouth breathing constable like Bryant is unforgivable
The paid trolls on here, are so obvious. They're every bit as obnoxious and predictable as the horrible TV ads coming from both sides.
Then again, thanks to an ad attacking him, I now know how little Tate has spent on the Governor's Mansion.
My favorite stupid ad was when one candidate called the other, a "penny-loafer-wearin', Jacuzzi-soakin...". Whoever out in Yankeeland is producing those ads, seems not to understand that half the trailers in Mississippi have hot tubs, and that it's "tassel-loafer-wearin'" (if you're talkin' 'bout the evil, rich cityslickers).
If Presley were not running for Gov, he would already be in jail for taking money from companies he regulates and supervises (just like previous commissioners that did the same and for far less money). The prosecution won't happen until after the election, as it would appear political. The people that depend on commission orders being signed to do business in Mississippi, don't call him Brandon Bucks for nothing.........Pay to Play my friends......
"Social insurance is not a bad thing y'all.", maybe you should talk to Canadians about that. Unless things have really improved, they aren't too happy with theirs. At least that was the impression they gave me a few years back.
"Those right wingers will not compromise.", those right-wingers, as you call them, have compromised to the point, that we have frog marched to being socialistic communism in this country. Yes, I know very well what those words mean.
This country has been continuously moving left for the past 100 years, more so the last 60. It's gotten to the point you can't tell where the government ends, and the corporations begin. The police state grows like a cancer to strangle every liberty that we enjoy. Only the blind can't see. The simple-minded calls the solution a problem.
Northern district resident here. I’ve spoken with Mr. Presley about issues in this district and have taken notice of what he does for his constituents. My experience with him was not the aw shucks, respectful, compassionate man portrayed in his family Bible ad. I will hold my nose and vote for Tate.
Tate was on vacation in France two months into the job when Covid broke out. It amazed me at the time and amazes me still that with all the talk of "lazy state workers" no one seemed to care that the Governor could somehow leave the country two months into the job.
And, @11:53 take a look at Tate's social media. He acts like he is running for a national position based on the red meat he keeps throwing. I'm tired of politicians who don't even pretend to care about the people who didn't vote for them and don't realize that every citizen is their constituent. Yes- he performed better than expected with the Jackson water crisis, but then he just can't help himself and had to be petty with comments like "it's a great day to not be in Jackson" Be a statesman. Set the example. But, he can't help but take the cheap shot. I want decent conservatives to vote for. Until then I'll be lodging a protest vote. And, I won't vote for Shad either. Get someone smart and level headed like Briggs Hobson to run and I'll happily vote Republican for governor again.
I'm still laughing at the Elvis cousin talking about his childhood lunches at a gas station with a plastic fork ...
(while he flies around the state on a private jet).
That's funny.
Kind of reminds me of those goofy Jim Hood ads where Jim was pretending to reload shotgun shells.
Why did Presley post a picture of him & his wife inside a private plane saying "Wheels Up" with the hashing #all82counties then quickly delete it?
Makes you wonder who's footing the bill for him & his newly married bride to go traipsing across the state campaigning.
I'm voting Tate.
Mississippi has historically been a democrat stronghold and will return to being that again because the MSGOP is feckless and without any vision except operating like a corrupt Baptist Theocracy.
Jesus Christ himself could run against Tate as a Democrat, and the rank and file Mississippian would still vote for the Republican. Critical thinking is gone, never to return.
October 15, 2023 at 9:42 PM, my, my, you seem to have trouble with your perspectives, and I have serious doubt as to your truthfulness on being a conservative. Putting all that aside, where's proof of monies being withheld from Jackson that I asked for?
Brandon sounds like a pandering idiot with that, Aw Shucks I Eat Off Paper Plates and Look, I got a Bible too BS.
I take the loafer boy that saved Jackson from its own self inflicted water crisis.
Thousands and thousands of dollars taken by Presley from the very people that he has to approve their projects in Mississippi......say no more, he is a crook and for sale....as he says in his own commercial, he should be in jail! He will do whatever the DC liberals ask him to do. You can say all you want that he is not one of them but he pretends he is not (says he won't support legislation making it illegal for kids to have sex changes, then says later, that he does) he is only saying what he needs to get votes, not how he feels and how he will conduct business. Once someone shows they can be bought on policy, they are ALWAYS FOR SALE! I have always voted independent and I live in north Mississippi as well and do not follow republican or democratic protocols and this guy is a scum bag........
Looks like there are a lot of Governor Reeves haters on here which means he must be doing a lot of things right.
Presley has been bought by the Democrats & their stronghold. Nothing but a puppet to their demands. Look at the way our country is & that's the direction Mississippi will be headed if he's elected. Straight down!
Vote for Governor Reeves
I will definitely skip the governors race on my ballot.
I can't vote for Presley because he is in the party of communists and I can't ever vote for Tate after the way wielded executive orders during covid to dictate to us how the government knows better how to manage our health than individual citizens do. Not to mention closing lakes during the spawn.
Notice how Crawford doesn't mention the latest Barksdaler sponsored poll that had Reeves +11.
Maybe next week he'll tell us that Landry's outright win was a fluke.
@9:43am, you may not like Presley, and that’s fine. I may vote for Reeves too. But if you’re reasoning for disliking Presley I’d because he’s “for sale”, oh boy. Sorry to disappoint you. Pot meet kettle. Any good things Tate has done (handling of the Jackson water crisis, for example) is despite the fact that he may be the most for sale governor in our history, including the buffoon who preceded him who has left behind a voluminous log of texts soliciting cash, employment, and stock in exchange for favors from him in his official capacity.
Notice how Crawford doesn't mention the latest Barksdaler sponsored poll that had Reeves +11.
Maybe next week he'll tell us that Landry's outright win was a fluke.
@4:39
MagTribune's pollster, Mason-Dixon, mid-September polls had Landry winning and avoiding a runoff -- which he actually did. Presley's campaigning of the last week plus and the need to have Bennie bring in James Clyburn to energize black Democrats tells you all you need to know. Presley has a big time black voter GOTV problem.
October 16, 2023 at 7:46 PM, can't disagree with you on Phil, the worst Gov in MS since Cliff Finch.... regarding Presley, there is nothing, absolutely nothing that he does that is not followed or preceded by a phone call by him for money. No comparison to any government official I have ever encountered and I have encountered many!!!! Everyone at the public service commission knows it.... employees are sick and tired of doing his begging and jumping through hoops for $$$$$
Anyone who did not already know that all politicians on both sides are bought is naïve.
Conservatives typically provide basic services while they steal or take kickbacks.
Democrats run off the tax base but refuse to stop stealing so...City of Jackson.
But as 2:11 said, there are various levels of exactly how "bought" they are and Presley is one of the worst.
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