Last week’s Republican congressional primaries in Mississippi’s Third and Fourth congressional districts pointed up some political realities that should prove instructional for current office holders and those who might challenge them.
First, as evidenced in the Fourth district, an incumbent congressman who can only muster 32 percent of the vote in the first primary and is dragging a lot of negative political baggage will be hard-pressed to win the second primary.
Republican U.S. Rep. Steven Palazzo, serving his sixth term, had the benefit of a seat on the House Appropriations Committee, which Mississippi voters rarely choose to ignore. But from early in his congressional tenure, Palazzo was dogged by controversies over matters arising from the after-hours conduct of some staffers and a perceived penchant for being a “no-show” at scheduled events.
More serious troubles for Palazzo emerged in the form of a House Ethics Committee probe into allegations that campaign funds were converted to personal use. While the Office of Congressional Ethics in 2021 reported “substantial evidence” of campaign spending irregularities, the probe languishes in legal and political limbo and will likely not garner an additional review.
The notion that Palazzo lost the GOP primary to Jackson County Sheriff Mike Ezell because of voter anger over the ongoing party schism between Trump supporters and so-called “establishment” Republicans is laughable. Palazzo was Trump’s most loyal supporter among the state’s congressional delegation.
The entire five-man Republican field of primary challengers joined forces to endorse Ezell and reject Palazzo despite a strong effort by Republican heavy hitters to “save” Palazzo in the runoff. Palazzo’s defeat did not produce a lot of political head-scratching.
Second, Mississippi’s functionally open primary system remains a factor in tight second primary races. While miles from being a decisive factor in incumbent U.S. Rep. Michael Guest’s resurgent win over political newcomer Michael Cassidy in the Third District congressional primary, it was part of Cassidy’s narrative in explaining his defeat.
More to the point, the first primary saw a spread between the two contenders of less than one percent with neither earning a majority. Guest’s forces mounted a crushing second primary campaign after a rather tepid first primary effort. Republican voters who had sat out the first primary returned to vote in the second and gave Guest an overwhelming 2-to-1 victory.
In defeat, Cassidy promptly accused Guest of “coordinating with Democrats to rig” the second primary.
Social media promptly picked up the narrative and repeated it – but factually, it’s a lot of bull. The facts are that complaints of that nature are made by people who either don’t understand state election law or just don’t like it. They argue for purity in primary politics. But Mississippi law harkens back to the days not so long ago when Mississippi voters claimed that they “vote for the man (or woman), not the party.”
From a practical standpoint, years ago that meant a majority Democratic Party vote. Today, it usually means a majority Republican vote. But state law says, in Section 23-15-575: “No person shall be eligible to participate in any primary election unless he intends to support the nominations made in which he participates.”
In 2014, Professor John M. Bruce, head of the University of Mississippi political science department, told The Washington Post during a similar flap after the 2014 Republican U.S. Senate primary: “This issue has already been adjudicated” and “that’s not enforceable.”
In 2008 in an unrelated Mississippi voting rights case, the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that in order for a ballot to be thrown out citing that law, poll workers would need to determine that the voter was at that time planning on supporting a different candidate in the general election – an incidence of political mind-reading that the federal appellate court did not see a path to achieve.
In an election cycle, Democrats can legally vote in Republican second primaries if they didn’t vote in the first Democratic primary. Republicans can legally vote in Democratic second primaries if they didn’t vote in the first Republican primary. Currently, that’s the law.
Purity arguments make good partisan sound bytes, but don’t carry much force after elections.
39 comments:
Cassidy and crew are sore losers as evidenced of him telling the media trying to interview him post election "You can bounce" and not granting an interview. Much less floating the crossover voting. The fact is there was very low turn out the first go round, not so much the second. The Cassidy campaign also still has signs out everywhere which is an eyesore. Is there a law about election signs out so many days after the election is over?
I'm going to wait and hear what Phillip Gunn thinks....and support the opposite.
can we also debate those voting machines that don't give you a receipt? i literally stick my ballot in and it disappears into the ether.
Regardless of whether it is legal, Sid ignores the allegation or proposition that Guest relied on Democrats to vote for him in the runoff. True, he got his people to turn out. But there is rumor that Bennie got his folks out, too, which was the rumor back in 2014.
Granted Cassidy was a political novice and made some missteps early. But, Guest needs to recognize that 2024 is not that far away. What Cassidy did will give rise to others stepping forward.
Whatever the RINOs want, I will support the opposite. Time to get real freedom loving Americans in office in MS!
@7/6. 8:52
Awe, now, Bennie too busy being a TV Star to worry ‘bout 2 white men.
Explain the massive increase in the turnout in Hinds County, a majority Democrat county.
Thanks, Sid, for acknowledging that the system is utterly corrupt (even if legal) and that candidates are free to use whatever unholy alliances they choose to get elected.
8:52: Actually Sid did not ignore it. He specifically said "In defeat, Cassidy promptly accused Guest of “coordinating with Democrats to rig” the second primary. Social media promptly picked up the narrative and repeated it – but factually, it’s a lot of bull." There is no proof of crossover voting or"rigging" by the Democrats. Please tell me you don't rely on "rumor" these days. There's plenty of that on the internet, the vast majority of which isn't true.
In my humble opinion, Guest and his supporters took the election for granted and assumed he was a shoe-in against a political newcomer and person who had just moved to MS a year before and was unknown here. They realized that mistake after the first primary and got his supporters energized and out to vote during the runoff.
Bennie got his folks out, too, which was the rumor back in 2014.
Black precincts turned out in the primary runoff for Cochran, but not the primary. Same black precincts turned away from Cochran in the general election. The actual results are beyond refute.
The law about primary voting representing (requiring) general election intent is an unenforceable joke that the Republican establishment will never move to change because it benefits them to game the system when one of their RINOs is in electoral peril.
Guest is vulnerable. A quality candidate that can appeal to the counties Cassidy carried in the primary who are sick and tired of Rankin+Madison controlling the seat can win.
8:52
I know a few counties were investigated over the vote on the June 7th election, Neshoba had a lot of crossover votes for Cassidy but he then immediately complains that he thinks Guest is going to pull a Cochran. I’m sure that side will scream Guest stole the election but fraud here and there doesn’t equal 23,000+ votes! My opinion on Cassidy is that he was not a plant per se but a reverse of AOC, as she auditioned for the role of Congressman, Cassidy sought out any group who would bite which was America First. Will he be around next election? Doubt it, that Navy grounding (investigation) was only put on hold due to the political race.
8:50 AM
Which ones? The Diebold ones that use a debit card like contraption to record your vote or the scantron like one that scans and dumps your ballot in a container?
@8:23 AM - For sake of accuracy, there were Guest signs remaining in Madison County from 2020.
@10:05 AM, Link to media about the investigation? Proof? Otherwise, BS.
While Ezell brought up the no-show issues and ethics investigation regarding Palazzo, he ran a good and simple campaign.
When Palazzo only got 33% of the vote and the other candidates endorsed Ezell, Palazzo went after Ezell hard during the runoff with the allegations that he was supported by Democrats and the "Never Trumpers" and sent out fliers and ran TV ads filled innuendos.
Ezell carried the three coastal counties, while Palazzo carried Forrest and Lamar counties.
I’m not saying that Guest was the best Rep in Congress but what can a second tern guy accomplish. Cassidy is a blow hard making pledges he could never accomplish. A first term Rep is lucky if anyone in Congress knows his name. Politics has been defined as the art of comprise . To get what you want you have to help others get what they want.
10:04 nails it. Guest is vulnerable but who has the backbone to oppose him?
RMQ
@1000 a.m. what I meant about Sid ignoring the allegation was that Sid focused on whether such a thing, if true, would be against the law. It seemed he focused his response to the allegation to "so what? It isn't against the law or it would be hard to prove it was illegal." That isn't the same thing as saying: "It didn't happen."
934 may be right. Bennie might have been too busy with his tv show trial fighting windmills. But as another poster noted, Hinds County turned out big, even when the precincts were moved and without air.
1004 nailed it. Guest IS vulnerable. If he and his people don't believe it and work to be a better congressman for his district in the next year, someone will step up after the 2023 state elections. Cassidy's campaign may not have won in 2022, but it has proven that the people don't want to be taken for granted.
Ok, Hinds County had more votes than the primary. The primary turnout was abysmally low, around a thousand votes. If I'm not mistaken, Spann, Casey, Ascension Lutheran, part of Christ United, and Willie Morris are in 3. Did the increase in votes for Guest come in those precincts or other boxes in Hinds County because those are the Republican boxes. I've no idea, that's why I am asking.
Cassidy's people are all the same. Calling anyone they run against Rhinos or the establishment, not realizing the incumbent has only been in office 4 years, and their candidate can do no wrong, even if he tries the same thing as the opposition, or has a pending situation with his employer that he won't address. I am beginning to think the "stand with Trump of GTFO" crowd is truly delusional, and I have an impeccable Republican voting record. He did good things, but lord have mercy you people worship that guy and all a person has to say is "I stand with Trump" and you will call them the second coming of Chris McDaniel.
9:37, massive? Quote me a number.
By the way, 20% of the most populated county in the state is still more republicans than 76 counties.
11:10 thinks everyone is a reactionary nut if they won't willingly be hancuffed to their ankles while repeating the mantra, "Thank you. May I have another?"
Losers always blame the rules. Look at Gore and Hillary.
9:37 - explain your commenting on a political blog site with no more knowledge of the system or demographics than your little mind can comprehend.
Yes, Hinds is a majority Democratic county. BUT the small part of Hinds County that is in the Third Congressional District (12 precincts in Northeast Jackson) are majority Republican. This is basically the same area that Ashby Foote represents on the Jackson City Council - Foote being a white Republican in a majority black Democratic city.
The rest of the county - 96 precincts - is majority Democratic, but does include the Republican havens of Clinton, Raymond, Learned, and parts of Byram.
Just because the County may be majority democrats, doesn't mean that the small portion up Ridgewood Road and Old Canton Road is.
Got it now?
Guest has his seat for life because elitist establishment Republicans in Rankin and Madison Counties run the show, and conservatives who favor a non-interventionist foreign policy waste their time voting. Mississippi will never have its own version of Matt Gaetz or Marjorie Taylor Greene. II Corinthians 4:4 explains why wicked people like Biden, Hillary, Kamala, Pelosi, Schumer, the Obamas, Mitch McConnell, Lindsay Graham, Mitt Romney, Liz Cheney, Marco Rubio, Roger Wicker, and Michael Guest will always win. I'm stuck in Mississippi the rest of my life, but I won't waste time voting again.
@9:37– I’m calling you out also. Produce those numbers of new votes in Jackson and compare to the actual difference in the runoff. If you don’t you are just another blow hard that gets news from rumors. Waiting for an answer??
Kingfish, you named most of the Hinds County precincts that are in the 3rd District. Casey, Spann, Ascenson Lutheran, Christ United (eastern part) and Willie Morris.
The others are Fondren Presbyterian (Woodland Hills), Fondren Church (eastern part) Belhaven Library and Belhaven Fire Station, Lakeland Fire Station, New Jeruselum Church and McLeod School.
The increase in Hinds County voting only occurred in the 3rd District boxes - and it was due to a heavy GOTV effort by the Guest campaign to turn out the Republican votes in those boxes. To the dismay of those that want to claim otherwise, there aren't that many Democratic votes in those boxes (with the exception of McLeod School and New Jeruselum)
Over half of the total increase in votes on June 28th came from Casey (Eastover) Spann (northern Eastover) and Willie Morris (Leftover).
I told many of my friends ( all GOP) to go vote. They didn't even know Guest had a challenger and couldn't understand why MS's GOP would challenge someone with Guest's voting record.
And, I hear the whining.
Both parties want only party loyalists to vote. They do not want those who pick a candidate on merits alone.
The Constitution doesn't mention political parties.
Our two are a scourge on the Nation.
A citizen of this Nation should be able to vote or whomever they please in any damn election.
If you haven't figured out that political parties have rather convenient ethics and swap issues every few decades , your are literaally a lemming.
10:11 While I generally agree, Guest's vote WITH the Democrats for the January 6th commission was simply a GIGANTIC lack of judgement! He may have done other good things while in office the last 4 years - although no one seems to be able to point to any of them - but the gravity of his lack of judgement on that one vote disqualified him from holding that seat any longer (in my opinion.) While people talked about being concerned about what Cassidy might do if elected, we already KNOW what Guest will do.
Give me a real conservative, not this "if I can just be quiet long enough up here to secure my place in this club....and while I'm here, I'll make sure to throw them a bone every now and then, just to make sure I don't get cut from the cool parties list."
I'm sick to DEATH of Republican-light. They have disappointed me for so long, I want to pull my hair out! The democrats advance whatever agenda they set forth, because they stick together......but oh no, not the Republicans! One thought that they're going to be talked mean to by the democrats, and they're throwing up the white flag to everyone! Why the F can't we have genuine conservatives, and not this constant parade of p***ies we always seem to get, like Cochran, Lott, Wicker, Guest, Harper, and the like? How about a Gaetz, Greene, Gohmert, Roy, Hawley, Lee, Jordan (and to some extent, Gowdy)? Certainly there has to be people like them in this State.........
Speaking of voting machines, when I cast my vote in Madison early that morning the one machine they had was down. Had to slide my ballot in a slot on the side of the machine to be scanned later when they fixed the machine. Really is ridiculous.
Precinct 35 is "Northern Eastover"? ROFLMAO
2:40, you speak for many. Thanks.
Republicans are conservative, working hard -- no, fighting hard -- to conserve a place for their snouts in the people's slop trough.
3:08 doesn't drive in Jackson often or he'd know what's between Ridgewood and the creek behind JA. I doubt he could afford to live in some of those homes.
12:37 - true. Look at Gore. And Hillary. And, don't forget his highness, Trump. Equal across the board.
Only Presidential candidates that have done so - and all in this century. But I notice you didn't include Trump in your list.
(Said by a lifelong Republican)
308 - what do you want to call the area between Meadowbrook and Sheffield? It is the area North of what is defined as Eastover, and many of the houses are as nice or nicer than those in Eastover.
I'll settle for whatever name you like - but for purposes of this blog, it fits.
937 - 970 votes is a "massive increase"?
Don't know where you come from or how you count, but I call bs on your crap.
less than 1000 more votes cast in the largest county in the state? Go back to your cheetos and medical weed
At least I won’t be getting 28 political post card flyers in the mail everyday after Guest was caught asleep at the wheel with the “in for life” that the GOP pushes on their newbs….
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