Friday, October 30, 2020

Philly Fed: Mississippi Economy Almost Back to Pre-Covid19 Performance

The Philadelphia branch of the Federal Reserve Bank said Mississippi's economy led the South in rebounding to  where it was before the Covid-19 pandemic shutdowns began.   

The Philly Fed tracks state gross domestic product with a monthly coincident index.* Mississippi's economy rebounded more than most Southern states.  Mississippi, Georgia, and Kentucky's economies were only 1% smaller than they were in January.  Arkansas led the way with a negligible shrinkage of 0.3%.  

The state economy had a coincident index of 119 in January.  It fell to 110 in March as shutdowns across the state began and 107 in April as they took hold.  The economy came back to 118 in December.   Only four states suffered less shrinkage than Mississippi.  The Mississippi economy shrank 10% from January to April.  However, some Southern states fared much worse such as Kentucky (-36%), South Carolina (-20%), and Tennessee (-28%). 

Philly Fed report, data, and spreadsheet.

State Growth/Loss

Arkansas: -0.3%
Alabama: -9%

Georgia: -1%

Florida: -6%

Kentucky: -1%

Louisiana: -6%

Mississippi: -1%

North Carolina: -2%

South Carolina: -5%

Tennessee: -8%

Texas: -5%

Virginia: -6%

New York: -14%

California: -11%

Michigan: -16% 

% of Shrinkage of Economy (April/January)

Arkansas: -0.3%

Alabama: -23%

 Florida: -14%

Georgia: -6%

Kentucky: -36%

Louisiana: -14%

Mississippi: -10%

North Carolina: -9%

South Carolina: -20%

Tennessee: -28%

Texas: 7%

Virginia: 12%

New York: 24%

California: 20%

Meechigan: 55%


Arkansas 

January: 129

 March: 129 

April: 125

September: 125 

(-0.3%)

Alabama

January:  128

March: 127

April: 99

September: 117

(-8.6%)

Georgia

January: 144

March: 144

April: 135

September: 143 

(-1%)

Florida

January: 149

March: 146

April: 128

September: 140 

(-6%)

Kentucky

January: 128

March: 124

April: 82

September: 127

(-1%)

Louisiana 

January: 110

March: 108

April: 95

September: 103

(-6%)

Mississippi

January: 119

March: 120

April: 107

September: 118 

(-1%)

North Carolina

January: 138

March: 137

April: 125

September: 133 

(-2%)

South Carolina

January: 149

March: 147

April: 119 

September: 142

(-5%)

Tennessee

January: 142

March: 142

April: 102

September: 130 

(-8%)

Texas

January: 149

March: 148

April: 138

September: 142

(-5%)

Virginia

January: 132

March: 132

April: 116

September: 124

(-6%)

New York

January: 126

March: 125

April: 96

September: 108

(-14%)

California

January: 150

March: 147

April: 120

September: 133

(-11%)

Michigan

January: 123

March: 121

April: 68

September: 105 

(-15%)

* The Philly Fed website explains the index: 

The coincident indexes combine four state-level indicators to summarize current economic conditions in a single statistic. The four state-level variables in each coincident index are nonfarm payroll employment, average hours worked in manufacturing by production workers, the unemployment rate, and wage and salary disbursements plus proprietors' income deflated by the consumer price index (U.S. city average). The trend for each state’s index is set to the trend of its gross domestic product (GDP), so long-term growth in the state’s index matches long-term growth in its GDP.


22 comments:

Anonymous said...

When you're routinely last or nearly last in every economic indicator, there really isn't a huge hill to climb for recovery.

Anonymous said...

That’s because it’s nearly impossible for this states economy to be any more anemic

Anonymous said...

So it’s back to “shitty”

Great news

Anonymous said...

Nothing from Nothing equals Nothing!

Anonymous said...

Well stated 3:32. Lucid, well articulated, coherent and right to the point.

Anonymous said...

You people are CLEARLY not business owners, if you even have jobs.

Anonymous said...

@6:31 PM - they are probably eating out of the public trough.

Anonymous said...

Man y’all are so neggy. Why don’t you try and accomplish something in your life?

Anonymous said...

6:31

I'm gonna open up a pot shop in Madison. I will have a job then.

Anonymous said...

3:26 3:30 3:32 4:39 many roads out of this state! Take one!

Anonymous said...

Would this rosy post be here if a D had driven the USA into a depression?

This “it’s only almost totaled” analysis?

The answer is clearly no.

But here we are with sycophants peddling absurdities all to try to appease the worst president in the history of the republic.

One person who is happy?

Jimmy Carter....he’s no longer the worst president.

Anonymous said...

Hey 9:41 this is 4:39, I only address here for the untaxed retirement income. I am not stupid enough to live here....

Anonymous said...

Telling the truth is not "negative". Mississippi's infrastructure is dismal at best. And that is an objective, measurable, visible, self-evident fact.

A problem can't be solved until it is acknowledged. Mississippians are too busy worrying about judging others through their religion, rather than taking care of their own dumb selves and their communities.

Anonymous said...

wow i dint know philadelphia had a federal reserve bank. it that the big building right down the street from the casino?

Anonymous said...

Great news!

It only cost us 3,338 fathers, mothers, brothers, sisters, sons, and daughters.

If I had said in 2008 “Hey, I can keep your economy from slipping 1%... but we have to sacrifice 3,300 Mississippians to do it.”

Would you have taken that bet?

Anonymous said...

@8:36am - And there will be at least that many more before it’s over, unfortunately.

Anonymous said...

We don't need no stinking job. We live off of you, and I will add, Thank you.

Anonymous said...

That $600/week federal unemployment bonus did the trick

Green Acres said...

Republicans have a funny way of counting. They claim the disease and death statistics for Covid-19 are inflated, but they inflate the resulting damage to the economy. All they have to do now is to stop counting the dollars of our national debt and the number of illegal immigrants crossing the border, and all our problems will be solved!

Anonymous said...

After reading some of the posts, many revel in despair while others are taking great care and advantage to get back into an economic groove to move our families, Counties/Towns/Cities, and Country forward. For those of us who are putting their shoulder into it keep at it and for those who aren't, well we will see you November 4th, National Covid Cure Day!!! (This is not a political statement, just an observation) BWC

Anonymous said...

I haven't noticed much of a change, good or bad. Of course, I have not invested my net worth into a small business either.

Anonymous said...

Well as long as state employees are getting paid then the economy will do fine. State employees are 70% of the state economy. Mississippi is basically just like North Korea but less independent and less technologically advanced.



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