Jackson Jambalaya

It's just like these mob protest in these Democratic run cities, COVID-19 just won't go away!

Love how we all focus on infected numbers, dead numbers and ICU/Vent numbers, but never the recovered that are actually impressive.

The reason the virus isn't going away is because there are 3 different virus on the loose.

1. Wuhan Virus
2. COVID-19
3. Coronavirus

We need to fight all three.

With around 15 deaths per day and no sign of slowing down then 1,380 is a perfectly reasonable number by the first of August. Covid19-projections.com is a little more pessimistic in showing an increase in the infection rate throughout the month of June and 1,700 deaths by August 1. They have the current Rt at 1.05.

I have my doubts about the RT Live Data since they have shown the Rt value for Mississippi at below 1 for the past six weeks even as our hospitalizations, ICU, Vents, and deaths have not been decreasing. If it had been between .92 and .95 as they show and a typical incubation period of five days I would have expected the number to have decreased by around 20% over that period.

JJ, any word on why they didn't release yesterday's numbers until like 6pm? Or was it 7? I was starting to get paranoid that Tate had decided to stop releasing daily numbers for morale purposes.

what happened to the major spike when things opened back up?

It has been 91 days since March 11 when tracking began in MS.

During that time 868 people have died of/with Covid-19 of which 447 or 51.5% were LTC residents.

During the same period of time in a typical year without Covid-19, there would have been approximately 7,916 deaths (calculated using the daily average number of deaths from the years 2014 through 2018).

Is Covid-19 adding to the average daily and average annual number of deaths or simply shifting deaths from the category they would have been in heart disease, cancer, respiratory disease, diabetes, etc to no being classified as Covid-19?

"what happened to the major spike when things opened back up?"

Just in the middle of the biggest 7 day average of daily cases we've had yet...no biggie.

This posting does nothing but stir fear and anxiety. We will have more infected but more asymptomatic. Deaths will occur but so will recovery. Should just let it run it's course as there isn't a single soul on this site that can change anything.

2:10 According to the CDC, Mississippi has had between 200 (on the lower end) and 600 (on the higher end) more deaths than expected from the middle of March until the end of May. There is more than just a shift of classification in normal deaths going on.

https://msbusiness.com/2020/06/three-day-state-covid-19-total-most-since-pandemic-began/

The statistics say that about 32,000 people per year die from ALL causes.

We can say it til we are blue in the face that thousands will die from this virus, but if only 32,000 people die this year as usual, then did the virus really kill thousands?

The virus may kill 500 in Mississippi this year. The rest of these deaths were just accelerated a few weeks or months.

3:29 "if only 32,000 people die this year as usual" is a huge assumption.

CDC data lags by a couple of weeks, but if we use the average weekly deaths between the first week of April and the third week in May (678 per week) as the expected death rate for the rest of the year and an actual number of deaths from Jan 1 - May 16 of 13,128 we would have 34,824 deaths in 2020 which is 2,824 more than average. If anything that might be a bit low as the death rate was increasing during that time and is showing no signs of slowing down.

So yes, at this point it is reasonable to say COVID is killing thousands of Mississippians.

Pretend this thread, in fact this whole blog, is a classroom full of sophomores and the professor has not yet entered the room. A bunch of cackling idiots, day in and day out, all pretending to know the course-work, none knowing shit.

Of course there are more and more cases coming. People won't socially distance, nor wear masks. It could all be so simple but some of y'all don't believe fat meat is greasy. *shrugs*

"Is Covid-19 adding to the average daily and average annual number of deaths or simply shifting deaths from the category they would have been in heart disease, cancer, respiratory disease, diabetes, etc to no being classified as Covid-19?"

What you're basically asking is how likely this person was to die now of Covid instead of three months from now of heart disease or something else. The problem is that all-cause mortality is fairly low even for old people and those with underlying conditions (https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html).

Your average 80-year-old man has a life expectancy of 8.28 years (9.68 for women). We expect him to live for approximately 3022 more days, meaning that his chance of death on any given day is 1/3022 or 0.03%. In a given 90-day period, there's a 2.7% chance he would die of any non-Covid cause. So if he dies today of Covid, there's a 97% chance he'd have been fine and would not have died in the next three months.

(I'm actually oversimplifying a bit because this isn't linear -- he's much more likely to die on day 2800 than on day 28 -- but it makes the math easier and doesn't affect the conclusion here that he is overwhelmingly likely to have been fine without Covid.)

This also covers the argument about whether folks with conditions die of or with Covid -- 0.9% chance he would have had the same heart attack or whatever in ~30 days of being sick. If you've got 100 deaths in this age group, you can take about 1 of them out... but that still leaves you with almost all deaths being strictly attributable to Covid.

Obviously, I'm using all-cause mortality across populations, not life expectations for people with heart disease or whatever. However, those people's life expectancies are often still high enough that you can assume their deaths are due to Covid. An 80-year-old man with heart disease can expect to live 2.2 more years, so there's only an 11% chance he would die of his heart disease (or anything else) in the next 3 months (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2994551/). If he gets Covid and dies, there's an 89% chance it was truly the Covid, not just a slight shift of nature taking its inevitable course.

You can tinker around at the margins, but the overwhelming majority of deaths of people with Covid are because they had Covid. You can't, like, handwave away half the death rate here by saying it would have happened any day anyway.

Dead is dead, no matter how you get that way.

"... The virus may kill 500 in Mississippi this year. The rest of these deaths were just accelerated a few weeks or months."
June 10, 2020 at 3:29 PM

That is EXACTLY RIGHT. I assume that you, like me, found the YouTube video:

Dr. Simon Thornley - 'An epidemiologist's take on Covid-19'