Wednesday, December 26, 2007

Can Israel win a nuclear war with Iran?

While the jello-writers in the media celebrate the conclusion of the National Intelligence Estimate that Iran is not pursuing nuclear weapons, the Center for International and Strategic Studies, which sponsored the Iraq Study Group the same media feted, published a study on November 19 stating that Israel would "win" a nuclear exchange with Iran (Now why would they be studying this issue if Iran was not pursuing nukes?). The report is available on their website at http://www.csis.org/media/csis/pubs/071119_iran.is&nuclearwar.pdf and is more comprehensive than the NIE.

The report makes the following assessments about an Israel-Iran nuclear exchange (p.31):

"Iranian-Israeli Exchange
•Assume mature, dispersed force on both sides. Preemption not an option
•Assume counterpopulation; counterforce and countervalue not an option.
•MAD-like environment; first strike of marginal or no benefit.
•Iranian side:
–Lower fission yields, less accurate forceinto cluster targeting on Israel’s two largest urban complexes.
–Volley strike with all assets. Must seek to saturate or bypass Arrow and Israeli defenses.
–Target to maximize casualties, clear attention to fall out, lasting effects.
–Strike at Haifa and Ashdod-Tel Aviv-Yafoaxis.
–Inflict 200,000 to 800,000 prompt to 21-day dead; long term death rate cannot be calculated.
–Iranian recovery not possible in normal sense of term.

•Israeli side:
–Higher yields, more accurate force allow to strike all major Iranian cities.
–Launch on confirmed warning from Israeli and US satellites.
–Reserve strike capability to ensure no other power can capitalize on Iranian strike; target key Arab neighbors.
–Launch at Syria if struck with CBRN weapons
–Target to maximize casualties, clear attention to fall out, lasting effects.
–Consider "Persian"ethnic strike option; send clear message cannot strike at Israel and survive.
–Inflict 16,000,000 to 28,000,000 prompt to 21-day dead; long term death rate cannot be calculated.
–Israeli recovery theoreticallypossible in population and economic terms."

The synopsis of the report states:
"The analysis indicates that Israeli might have the near to mid-term advantage in such a struggle, at least in terms of the ability to inflict more damage on the Persian ethnic population and economy of Iran. Iran is much larger than Israel, but its population is heavily urbanized and extremely vulnerable to boosted and thermonuclear weapons.
This advantage seems likely to continue until Iran obtained boosted or thermonuclear weapons. The outcome would be so costly to both sides, however, any such advantage would little or no practical value. It is unclear that either nation could reconstitute itself on anything like a prewar basis, if at all." http://www.csis.org/component/option,com_csis_pubs/task,view/id,4172/type,1/

Some may ask, "what about the NIE?" What about the NIE? The NIE two years ago stated that Iran WAS pursueing nuclear weapons. So which is correct as they are completely in opposition to each other, the 2007 or the 2005 NIE? Keep in mind it was the 2002 NIE that was used to justify the invasion of Iraq. That same NIE is trashed by Iraqi War critics who claim it completely false and unreliable. The same critics now praise the NIE as it supports their goals (in an unintended display of the intellectual honesty). This particular think tank is as establishment as one can be as it has former government leaders such as Sam Nunn, Henry Kissinger, Zbignew Brezinkski, William Cohen, and others on its board of trustees.

For additional stories on the report, see:
http://www.worldtribune.com/worldtribune/WTARC/2007/me_nuclear_12_20.asp
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3486011,00.html
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1196847416688&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull

The reason why there are no links to mainstream American media sources is because they deemed this news to insignificant to publish. 16 million dead seems not to be worth their time. Now back to who _____ Jamie Spears.

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Trollfest '09

Trollfest '07 was such a success that Jackson Jambalaya will once again host Trollfest '09. Catch this great event which will leave NE Jackson & Fondren in flames. Othor Cain and his band, The Black Power Structure headline the night while Sonjay Poontang returns for an encore performance. Former Frank Melton bodyguard Marcus Wright makes his premier appearance at Trollfest singing "I'm a Sweet Transvestite" from "The Rocky Horror Picture Show." Kamikaze will sing his new hit, “How I sold out to da Man.” Robbie Bell again performs: “Mamas, don't let your babies grow up to be Bells” and “Any friend of Ed Peters is a friend of mine”. After the show, Ms. Bell will autograph copies of her mug shot photos. In a salute to “Dancing with the Stars”, Ms. Bell and Hinds County District Attorney Robert Smith will dance the Wango Tango.

Wrestling returns, except this time it will be a Battle Royal with Othor Cain, Ben Allen, Kim Wade, Haley Fisackerly, Alan Lange, and “Big Cat” Donna Ladd all in the ring at the same time. The Battle Royal will be in a steel cage, no time limit, no referee, and the losers must leave town. Marshand Crisler will be the honorary referee (as it gives him a title without actually having to do anything).


Meet KIM Waaaaaade at the Entergy Tent. For five pesos, Kim will sell you a chance to win a deed to a crack house on Ridgeway Street stuffed in the Howard Industries pinata. Don't worry if the pinata is beaten to shreds, as Mr. Wade has Jose, Emmanuel, and Carlos, all illegal immigrants, available as replacements for the it. Upon leaving the Entergy tent, fig leaves will be available in case Entergy literally takes everything you have as part of its Trollfest ticket price adjustment charge.

Donna Ladd of The Jackson Free Press will give several classes on learning how to write. Smearing, writing without factchecking, and reporting only one side of a story will be covered. A donation to pay their taxes will be accepted and she will be signing copies of their former federal tax liens. Ms. Ladd will give a dramatic reading of her two award-winning essays (They received The Jackson Free Press "Best Of" awards.) "Why everything is always about me" and "Why I cover murders better than anyone else in Jackson".

In the spirit of helping those who are less fortunate, Trollfest '09 adopts a cause for which a portion of the proceeds and donations will be donated: Keeping Frank Melton in his home. The “Keep Frank Melton From Being Homeless” booth will sell chances for five dollars to pin the tail on the jackass. John Reeves has graciously volunteered to be the jackass for this honorable excursion into saving Frank's ass. What's an ass between two friends after all? If Mr. Reeves is unable to um, perform, Speaker Billy McCoy has also volunteered as when the word “jackass” was mentioned he immediately ran as fast as he could to sign up.


In order to help clean up the legal profession, Adam Kilgore of the Mississippi Bar will be giving away free, round-trip plane tickets to the North Pole where they keep their bar complaint forms (which are NOT available online). If you don't want to go to the North Pole, you can enjoy Brant Brantley's (of the Mississippi Commission on Judicial Performance) free guided tours of the quicksand field over by High Street where all complaints against judges disappear. If for some reason you are unable to control yourself, never fear; Judge Houston Patton will operate his jail where no lawyers are needed or allowed as you just sit there for minutes... hours.... months...years until he decides he is tired of you sitting in his jail. Do not think Judge Patton is a bad judge however as he plans to serve free Mad Dog 20/20 to all inmates.

Trollfest '09 is a pet-friendly event as well. Feel free to bring your dog with you and do not worry if your pet gets hungry, as employees of the Jackson Zoo will be on hand to provide some of their animals as food when it gets to be feeding time for your little loved one.

Relax at the Fox News Tent. Since there are only three blonde reporters in Jackson (being blonde is a requirement for working at Fox News), Megan and Kathryn from WAPT and Wendy from WLBT will be on loan to Fox. To gain admittance to the VIP section, bring either your Republican Party ID card or a Rebel Flag. Bringing both and a torn-up Obama yard sign will entitle you to free drinks served by Megan, Wendy, and Kathryn. Get your tickets now. Since this is an event for trolls, no ID is required. Just bring the hate. Bring the family, Trollfest '09 is for EVERYONE!!!

This is definitely a Beaver production.


Note: Security provided by INS.

Trollfest '07

Jackson Jambalaya is the home of Trollfest '07. Catch this great event which promises to leave NE Jackson & Fondren in flames. Sonjay Poontang and his band headline the night with a special steel cage, no time limit "loser must leave town" bout between Alan Lange and "Big Cat"Donna Ladd following afterwards. Kamikaze will perform his new song F*** Bush, he's still a _____. Did I mention there was no referee? Dr. Heddy Matthias and Lori Gregory will face off in the undercard dueling with dangling participles and other um, devices. Robbie Bell will perform Her two latest songs: My Best Friends are in the Media and Mama's, Don't Let Your Babies Grow up to be George Bell. Sid Salter of The Clarion-Ledger will host "Pin the Tail on the Trial Lawyer", sponsored by State Farm.

There will be a hugging booth where in exchange for your young son, Frank Melton will give you a loooong hug. Trollfest will have a dunking booth where Muhammed the terrorist will curse you to Allah as you try to hit a target that will drop him into a vat of pig grease. However, in the true spirit of Separate But Equal, Don Imus and someone from NE Jackson will also sit in the dunking booth for an equal amount of time. Tom Head will give a reading for two hours on why he can't figure out who the hell he is. Cliff Cargill will give lessons with his .80 caliber desert eagle, using Frank Melton photos as targets. Tackleberry will be on hand for an autograph session. KIM Waaaaaade will be passing out free titles and deeds to crackhouses formerly owned by The Wood Street Players.

If you get tired come relax at the Fox News Tent. To gain admittance to the VIP section, bring either your Republican Party ID card or a Rebel Flag. Bringing both will entitle you to free drinks.Get your tickets now. Since this is an event for trolls, no ID is required, just bring the hate. Bring the family, Trollfest '07 is for EVERYONE!!!

This is definitely a Beaver production.

Note: Security provided by INS
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