Friday, April 28, 2017

Lumumba leads new poll.

Millsaps College and Chism Strategies issued the following press release and poll.


Millsaps College-­‐Chism Strategies Survey Shows Competitive 
Mayoral Contest Days Ahead of Election

Lumumba Holds Lead as Horhn and Graham Battle for Second Position

JACKSON—A newly released poll conducted by Millsaps College and Chism Strategies reveals a highly competitive mayoral race. Jackson voters head to the polls on Tuesday, May 2 for the Democratic primary election to determine which of the leading candidates advances to the runoff in two weeks.

The poll, conducted April 26-­‐April 27, indicates that attorney Chokwe A. Lumumba leads with 29% of the vote as Supervisor Robert Graham and Senator John Horhn and are currently at 20% and 19%, respectively. Incumbent Mayor Tony Yarber presently sits at 7%, while the remaining five candidates combine for 8%. Another 17% of likely Democratic primary election voters remain undecided.

“Jackson voters are clearly conflicted about which candidate is the best possible option for leading the city forward,” said Dr. Nathan R. Shrader, assistant professor of political science and director of American Studies at Millsaps College. “The field of candidates is quite large and several appear to be breaking away from the pack. This has certainly turned into a real horserace.”

The Millsaps College-­‐Chism Strategies Survey also examined whether undecided voters are leaning towards one of the candidates, which issues are most likely to influence the way voters make up their minds in the closing days of the campaign, and trial match-­‐ups for the likely May 16 run-­‐off primary election between the race’s three front-­‐runners: Lumumba, Horhn, and Graham.

Note: Dr. Shrader is available to discuss these findings with members of the news media leading up to Tuesday’s Primary Election. He may be contacted at shradnr@millsaps.edu or 724-­‐433-­‐2168.



Kingfish note: The poll is posted below.  The actual poll results are on the third page:


What is interesting is that Lumumba, Graham, Horhn, and Yarber have each raised at least $100,000 for their campaigns.   There is usually one candidate who dominates the race for dollars but that has not happened in 2017.  The undecided number is sizeable but not as large as it was at this point a few years ago when it was nearly 30% a few days before the election.  The order of the candidates lines up with other polls. Graham probably has a better get out the vote machine from years practicing county politics but Horhn has relied on an aggressive media campaign.

Voters are not happy with the current state of affairs in Jackson.  Rightly or wrongly, they are not lining up for the incumbent just as they didn't line up for Harvey in 2013.  This last weekend should be fun to watch.  Stay tuned.  

The crosstabs are included in the poll posted below.


62 comments:

Anonymous said...

Chism was"dead-on" a few years ago. This poll is wrong or, if not wrong, Jackson is sunk totally.

As for me, I will vote with the police and fire departments. They are not going for any of the top three on this poll. Neither are most of the employees of the City. Think these fine people might know anything? They have lived through it all and don't choose the top three in this poll.

I just don't trust it even with Milsaps on the letterhead. Trump proved people no longer tell the truth to strangers regarding their votes. I think it is someone's campaign strategy.




Anonymous said...

Hi my name is Not Robert Graham, and I approve this message.

Anonymous said...

How in the world does Tony Yarber rate 6.7% after his record? Are there that many cronies and crooks?

Anonymous said...

Looks like Labumba is going to win. There is a song that goes La La La La La Bumba. I know, I did not spell his name correctly.

Anonymous said...

Doing the math, and taking into account the leaners, as large as up to 68.6% of voters are not supporting BabyChok.

His support is down -1.4% since the mid-March poll.

No sugarcoating it ... that is the wrong direction.

Anonymous said...

How many Council Wards a candidate leads is meaningless. Dog whistling Wards 1 and 7 is offensive and divisive though I highly doubt our resident race hustlers, er, healers will "call out" Chism for doing so.

Anonymous said...

I wonder if this poll proves that Communist Donna Ladd and the radical Jackson Free Press have a pull in this election...

Anonymous said...

Sorry Brad but that is a FATAL undersample of Ward 6 and Ward 7. That's why you're not a pollster.

Anonymous said...

Chism was"dead-on" a few years ago.

When was that?

Anonymous said...

Donner can't move the needle for any election except maybe among her office staff and youth media indoctrinaires.

Anonymous said...

Something mighty, mighty wrong with the distribution of those Responses by Ward. No way you can nearly double sample NE or NW Jackson voters versus those in South Jackson.

Anonymous said...

Lord help us if true and accurate

Anonymous said...

Bet on this: BabyChok will win.

It's not that he's worth a damn. It's that he spews that "get even" rhetoric that so many poor black people eat up. Hell, his rally in NYC was called, "The Big Payback". It's not even implied - it's straight up "make Whitey pay!"

There are people who believe that Chokwe will be able to take money from rich people and dole it out to them. Seriously. That can't happen, but they believe and Chokwe certainly isn't trying to dissuade them of that notion.

There are too many people who think Chokwe means mo' money for them. He'll win and he'll make Yarber look like Rudy Giuliani when he's done. After four years of letting the streets turn to rubble and bi-monthly boil water notices and greater budget deficits with no goodies (except a multi-million dollar Chokwe Lumumba, Sr. Memorial and Social Justice Center), they'll abandon him, but Jackson will be so deep in the hole it will have to be razed.

Johnny Weir said...

Thank GOD I moved out of Jackson 1 year ago.
Confusious said:
There's an old Chinese story where this tiger went into this village & ate several people. A new reporter ask a women why she didn't move? She said the government wasn't that bad.

So, I would continue to live in Jackson if the govt. wasn't that bad.

Anonymous said...

There are people who believe that Chokwe will be able to take money from rich people and dole it out to them. Seriously. That can't happen, but they believe and Chokwe certainly isn't trying to dissuade them of that notion.

On one of Antar's videos he's proposing taking city tax dollars to fund an 'incubator' and then invest the incubator dollars in co-ops. No joke.

Don't think it can't happen. Chokwe Sr. was playing fast and loose with the budget before he passed. Akuno was on the city payroll specifically to redistribute Jackson tax dollars to this very sort of co-op economic model.

Anonymous said...

Jr. still has to win a runoff, folks. Don't get your panties in a wad yet, or if you are the Mayor of neighboring Rankin County town, don't start your party yet.

Once the second to lose plus candidates (3rd thru 5th) are out, their supporters will have to go somewhere, and most are not the 30 minus crowd that are Junior's rah-rah crowd. And not sure that the Baltimore supporters will be able to stay an extra two weeks, but we'll see if they continue to support a capitalist society by having to rent a room and a car from a for profit entity for that long.

Anonymous said...

Soon houses in Jackson will not sell at any price.

Anonymous said...

Lumumba is going to bankrupt the city with that stupid 60% minority participation of city contracts crap. The city can't provide the most basic functions of a city by filling potholes, clearing clogged storm drains or repairing water leaks, but I guess he lives in utopia where giving somebody something for nothing doesn't cost the city more money by higher priced contracts.

Anonymous said...

100 % apartheid awaits.

Anonymous said...

This is actually very good news for Jackson, Lumumba will bring programs to the city that will ensure it's residents ability to compete with the surrounding bedroom communities and bring it back to its former glory!

Anonymous said...

Can someone share when Mississippi instituted early voting?

Anonymous said...

Let's not forget the Jonathan Lee syndrome: the last 2 candidates to be leading after the primary LOST in the runoff.

Anonymous said...

Dilbert has been trying to implement early voting, but thus far the smarter heads have prevailed. MS does not have early voting, despite what Donner and her endorsed candidate, Lumumba, are telling their voters. But just like Lumumba doesn't bother to follow any of the state's laws requiring timely filing of finance reports, no reason to expect him to pay attention to any of these other 'white folks' laws.

Anonymous said...

Hey 5:19, can you puff puff pass that joint this way? Must be some good stuff! Smh

Anonymous said...

Basically comes down to 29% polled are gullible and uneducated and/or radical and the other 71% will rally behind one of the other candidates in a runoff. Sounds about right

Anonymous said...

Lumumba may be ahead in mutable polls but the fact that he cant get above 30% is trouble for him.

He seems like a love him or hate him kinda guy. He is either your first choice or last choice. I doubt any of the people who dont make the run off will endorse him although they may endorse anyone else. He got first in the primary last time around but lost in runoff. Just like JLee. Graham and Horhn have to like what they see. If they can make it then more money rolls in to them and they can rally the other 70%.

Just wait for Costco to even the score said...

Let the haters in the fake stucco houses located on the pastures start hating... yawn

Anonymous said...

Horhn is the Jeff Good and white establishment/Fondren candidate and Graham is an Uncle Tom. Yarber is toast and Lumumba is saying all the right things. It's Payback Time. Kush is coming to Jacktown. Anybody want to buy a house in Northeast Jacktown? Mine is for sale...cheap. And my business is also leaving.

Anonymous said...

Yarber is the worst mayor ever. Just simply didn't have the mental capacity for the job (can't understand basic mortgage language), is scarcely paranoid (rightfully when juggling multiple hoes at one time), and is a hypocritical preacher. Bad combination...no matter what color you are. And, he is just now figuring out that he needs a political advisor to tell him how to manage a city. WoW! HE COULDNT UNDERSTAND SIMPLE ARM MORTGAGE Terms, or he played the "I didn't understand" card, which is even worse. Can we possibly write legislature that mayor must have a business management masters degree to run for office??

Anonymous said...

BabyChok shrill in this debate tonight. Chism/Millsaps poll must have him worried.

Anonymous said...

713 do share with us about your business- hard to believe somebody who has been here any length of time would decide to leave now. Nothing has even happened. "Kush" was already here for 8 months. Let's be honest you don't own a house here and certainly not a business worth anything.

Shades of Muddy Pearl said...

Kush
Kush

Thought I heard Kenny calling my name now

Kush
Kush

Coulda' been Bennie but we all the same now

LAND!
LAND!

Free it early in the mornin'

LAND!
LAND!

Free it early in the evenin'

LAND!
LAND!

Free it anyway we can now

Anonymous said...

A vote for John horhn is a vote for Antar Lumumba...

Anonymous said...

A vote for Antar Lumumba is a vote for Kali Akuno.

Anonymous said...

8:13 I wholeheartedly agree.

Anonymous said...

8:51: No, a vote for John Hohrn is a vote for the one guy who can take us out of the swamp.

Anonymous said...

Jackson political races are won by who has the ground game. LaLaLaBamba has THE ground game. It was set up by his father decades ago. If he wins it will show that the Christian vote, which goes through the pastors of the many churches in the area, are losing their political clout. Unless the losers ban together, it's over.

Anonymous said...

Regardless of who wins, I predict more over spending, cronism and racist city policies.

Anonymous said...

I just did a quick study of The Universal Declaration of Human Rights on the U.N. website. Nowhere in that declaration is a nod to "get back" at one race or another. The recurring word is EVERYONE. Hakuna Matata!

Anonymous said...

Except when it comes to the UN they mean everyone except women. The same UN, you know, that just placed Saudi Arabia on the UN Women's Rights Commission.

Anonymous said...

No surprise. The majority of voters in Jackson are idiots. If you can keep the racial chip on your shoulder longer, keep the Uncle Sugar cash rolling into your bank and spit in the eye of the hard-working people who pay your way then why not? If it weren't for the fact that I have to take care of elders in my family I'd leave this place and never come back. The sullen behavior, the attitude, the theft of tax dollars by faking need for SNAP, SSI, etc. The use of handicap parking by able-bodied people. The worst drivers in America. The baby machines and runaway Dads. So why not a first-class idiot like Lumumba? Drive the infrastructure down further and hire more incompetent leaders. It's Beany Tubson's State anyway.

Tired of trying said...

7:13-- You ain't seen nothing yet. 60% minority participation contracts are racist and new unqualified contractors will be lining up to pad their wallets. Ldet's not even talk about consultants and "coaches." Get real. And FYI I do live in Jackson. I am a native and graduated from Provine when the neighborhood around it was safe and family oriented. I worked at Kroger as a bag boy in Westland Plaza during high school and have lived in three houses in Jackson over the years. My business of 40+ years is in the High Street area and I have been burglarized twice in the last year and had my car stolen in front of my business. My clients have mostly moved to Rankin County. I have given it my all and am tired of fighting it. There's more to life than trying to fix a system that doesn't want to be fixed. Good luck in Kush land.

Plain Ol' Catfish said...

"The majority of voters in Jackson are idiots. If you can keep the racial chip on your shoulder longer, keep the Uncle Sugar cash rolling into your bank and spit in the eye of the hard-working people who pay your way then why not?"

But yet people want to know WHY there's a chip on the shoulder? Some of you dolts answer your own questions and ignore the garbage coming out of your own mouth.

Anonymous said...

10:33 Hohrn os the swamp...career politician. Long on talk short on results. And anti law enforcement, yeah thats good for jackson. Chokwe is a racist separatists. Yarber would be more suited running a brothel. Graham is living off of his TV time when he was JPD spokesman. Mask cantget a vote because she's white....

Anonymous said...

11:10; NO. Wrong

Anonymous said...

People who will re-elect a complete clown like Stokes are more about "getting back" than about bringing the city up. They'd rather see a city run by the likes of Stokes and Lumumba than by the most capable white man.

There's a HUGE amount of racism and racial animus that is fueling Lumumba, and anyone who argues otherwise is a liar or a fool.

Anonymous said...

Don't know 'bout y'all, but I have not forgotten Chokwe, Sr.'s Funeral. Afrocentric to the max. Didn't even know I was in America. No matter the intentions, my allegiance is to the good 'ol USA. Just not ready for a Kush designed by Malcom X.

Looking through the telescope, neither Horhn or Graham have sterling reputations -- quite the opposit, despite how like-able they are. Neither, despite so-called plans, will be able to handle the city departments. Graham wants to bring back Robert Johnson??? How old is he? Wasn't he the Ditto Chief from up north? Horhn is going to take advise from ??? Last night told us nothing.]

Crudup, Jr. came across best in many ways. None of the front runners in the crazy poll have any experience with city government. This is a disaster in the making.

Anonymous said...

The funeral for the program, organized by his two children, had Louis Farrakhan providing the eulogy. I understand they couldn't work out to pay for farakhans travel, so he bailed.
Has anybody asked Antar if he still refuses to say the pledge allegiance.
In 2013, His daddy came in late to his own swearing in, right after the singing of the star spangled banner and the recitation of the pledge allegiance.

Anonymous said...

12:14 strong rebuttal argument

Anonymous said...

We do not have a good choice if the poll is correct.

Anonymous said...

I am all too happy to say, "Bye Bye, Baby Boy!"

Three wasted years while supporting cronies. Any of the remaining candidates participating in last night's debate will be a better choice to try to get Jackson back on track.

Yarber had what it took to be a great leader, but his friends and vices brought him down.

I truly wish him well in his next job...hopefully he learned from this experience.

Anonymous said...

Yarber Administration

Were there some naive and corrupt people around him? Yes.

Cronies? Doesn't every mayor have these? Just wait until one of the top three listed above get in. You will think Yarber's "cronies" were mild.

Adultery? Are you certain? Can you throw the first stone. Can any of the other leading candidates?

All in all, the Yarber Administration took over when the budget was completely spent by Chokwe's father with five months to go, an administration full of people who knew nothing about city government. Chokwe, Sr. at least had been in city government prior to becoming mayor. Yarber was able to navigate the personel storm and the budget storm. He inherited the Siemen Disaster and has been able to restore at least some sanity to water billing even though many are not receiving bills yet. Of course, these sterling citizens know they are ripping off the city but how many have come forward?

Crime is decreasing and has done so since Yarber took office. Economic development is happening and building permits have continued fairly good. Working with the 1% commission is not very productive but it is what it is. The Capitol Developmemt District is a reality and this type of funding in various forms has been diligently sought after for probably two decades. The policemen and other first responders are not grumbling like in years past.

So, all in all, the past 3 years have not been as awful as many want to portray. The streets have caused Yarber more harm than the law suits. Too bad the citizens don't recognize how having so many mayors in the last few years have harmed the city. They just want to add one more who won't last longer than 4 years.

Anonymous said...

It is very HILARIOUS AND OBVIOUS those who are working for the current mayor or attend his church in these responses. CHURCH MEMBERS: Consider other leadership...you only have one soul...you're not a cat! CURRENT MAYOR STAFF WHO ARE OBVIOUSLY STILL DEFENDING HIS FOOLISHNESS TO HOLD ON TO YOUR JOBS: LOG OFF...REBOOT YOUR COMPUTERS... AND GO TO WWW.MDES.GOV TO SEEK FURTHER EMPLOYMENT. Your time will be MUCH BETTER SPENT THERE!!! BUDGET WHEN HE CAME IN: Over 17 million and depleted to less than half of that AFTER he came in...TOP STAFFERS: Inexperienced top heavy people who had less to NO education than most of the regular staff who had no clue of governance...YOUR MAYOR: Should have been ACCOUNTABLE and not play the victim which showed HYPOCRISY and not TRANSPARENCY! Those that defend him must be just like him so it is with the GREATEST HOPE that one of the top three COMPLETELY CLEANS HOUSE!

Anonymous said...

Panic about a Jackson mayoral election from people who overwhelmingly voted to give Donald Trump access to nuclear codes? Fantastic.

Anonymous said...

4:05 AM, this is not a city employee. Donna and now the Clarion-Ledger have both endorsed Lumumba. Guess you will get your wish that somebody come into City Hall and clean house because Lumumba will bring his own people; does not matter if they are qualified. All that matters is that they support him and his vision (actually Malcom X's vision). The Clarion-Ledger thinks he will have a benefit by being the son of former Mayor. What a joke because it just does not work that way. And if it did, the city would run out of money.

Yarber is the only one running who can beat Lumumba. A 62 year old Horhn, for all his support, still has baggage and does not possess necessary energy to combat the quick and wiley Lumumba.

Anonymous said...

Is anyone else annoyed by the way Graham says "maturity" in his commercial?

Anonymous said...

@ 10:32 the last thing that needs to be discussed about ANYBODY running for office is baggage! It is the things one says in the posts that are a dead giveaway that you are either a top city employee,a devout church member or somebody yarber is sleeping with. Since no one knows what else is to come in the next few weeks, silence is the best idea to not appear as a supporter of foolishness, one who completely lacks knowledge or one who is just trying to keep their job.

Anonymous said...

11:29 - yes, Lumumba Sr. did bring in an administration of incompetents; but Yarber kept some of the worst and did nothing but add to it; K Powell, M Crisler, the whole Anderson family, etc. etc. (realize I probably named you in that sentence, but hey, WTH)

Navigate the personnel storm? How. By screwing who he wanted when he wanted, except when it stopped he fired them? Hell of a way to navigate. And the budget storm navigation produced even worse results. Easy to make the claim, but you provide nothing to back it up except for a broke ass city, bond rating gone to the sh****er, the water fund depleted, and a bloated bureaucracy that stays in place.

Inherited the Seimen disaster? I believe he not only voted for it as a Councilman, but was a serious promoter of the contract.

But the biggest joke of your comment was that he had some sanity to the water billing system. Get serious. Not only are people still not getting billed due to their 'straight piping' stealing, but many others are getting outlandish bills with no basis. And yes, they have been told about it by these customers - over, and over, and over, but yet they do nothing about it. The system is broke because they don't collect the bills and Yarber can't even put someone in place to send out and collect the bills. If he had navigated the personnel system, why is that department still a shambles.

Please point me to this economic development that is increasing. Major employers are moving out; a few fast food joints have moved into the Hwy 18 area. Trade a Taco Bell for a Puckett; trade a hair salon supply shop for a major car dealership.

And your crowing jewel - the Capital District. Yes, it has been a push for several years and Yarber did his best job of killing it last year. Finally passed over despite his "help" this year but the funding won't be seen for three more years. And because of Yarber's mismanagement of the city's money, making sure that the contract evaluation score sheets are "adjusted" to make sure his contributors get the contracts with adequate set-asides to provide him his share the legislature made sure that the city won't touch that money. Hell of a recommendation for his claim to continue the process.

Give me anybody else - this joker is a joke. Let him go back to his church/strip club and see if he can maintain his separate residence downtown.

Anonymous said...

@ 4:44 pm I need your ENTIRE POST ON A T-SHIRT OR CAR TAG!!!!! Whoever you are, you need to run for office!!! VERY WELL SAID!!!

Anonymous said...

Did 10:32 actually say Wiley Lumumba? Are we going to rework the International Airport sign again?

4:44 here said...

9:42 - Thanks for the compliment. Afraid that much of the electorate doesn't like hearing truth and facts. Been that route, enjoyed it and while I have the T-shirt(s) -actually several left over in fact - that's about all I have other than a few scars.

Anonymous said...

12 out of 10 Millsapians would have told you there was absolutely no possible way that Hillary would be defeated. I'll bet they are way off on this one as well.

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