Sunday, November 12, 2023

Bill Crawford: Predictions Right on Target

 Some musings about the election results.

Three weeks ago I wrote about a potential protest vote in the race between Tate Reeves and Brandon Presley. I concluded, “But most predict the results this year will be similar to the results four years ago when Reeves beat Jim Hood 51.9% to 46.8%.”

Almost complete unofficial returns late Thursday showed Reeves won with 51.5% to Brandon Presley’s 47.1%. Those mosts were pretty darn accurate.

But so, apparently, was the prediction about a 5% to 10% protest vote. 

The average vote total for major Republican office holders Lt. Gov. Delbert Hosemann, Attorney General Lynn Fitch, and Secretary of State Michael Watson was 469,323. The total vote for Reeves was 408,680. The gap between those two numbers was 60,643 or 7.6% of the total gubernatorial vote. 

The protest vote was there. It just wasn’t enough to affect the outcome.

Some questioned Reeves’ campaign strategy to run hard against President Joe Biden and “liberal Democrats” rather focus on Presley and state issues. It appears that strategy effectively trapped Presley. First, Presley he hired national Democratic operatives to help manage his campaign. Later, he had to depend on big money from national Democrats to compete with Reeves. Reeves jumped hard on those ties and engendered legitimate concerns about how beholden to those interests a Presley administration might be.

On the other side, Presley’s attempt to link Reeves to the TANF scandal just did not resonate with voters. There was little hard evidence to support his claim. And it detracted from Presley’s most impactful issue – Medicaid expansion.

President Donald Trump’s last minute endorsement of Reeves was the icing Reeves needed to finish his victory cake.

In 2019, prognosticators said Hood’s home region of northeast Mississippi would have to come through big for him. The same was said for Presley. In neither race did that happen.

State maps showed in red the counties won by Reeves in 2019 and 2023. Red dominated northeast Mississippi on both. 

Presley’s loss will leave Mississippi with no white Democrat holding a major regional or statewide office in Mississippi for the first time in modern history. 

In fact, only three such offices will be held by Democrats, all of whom are black – Second District U.S. Congressman Bennie Thompson, Central District Highway Commissioner Willie Simmons, and newly elected Central District Public Service Commissioner De’Keither Stamps, if he holds on to his tiny margin. (Judges are nonpartisan.)

Stamps led incumbent Brent Bailey 50.5% to 49.5% with votes still uncounted. That’s a flip from four years ago when Bailey beat Stamps 50.4% to 49.6%. 

“It is good for people to eat, drink, and enjoy their work under the sun during the short life God has given them, and to accept their lot in life” – Ecclesiastes 5:18.

Crawford is a syndicated columnist from Jackson.

Copyright 2023 by Bill Crawford

21 comments:

Anonymous said...

Yo Crawford, you need to work on your grammar.

Anonymous said...

Sadly, Tate lacks the humility to ask himself why he lost support.

Quite a few women were appalled by the lack of compassion in the abortion issue...by no real effort by our legislature to educate themselves on the medical realities or the social and financial ones women can face.

Quite a few Republicans who live and prosper in our Capitol were appalled that he forgot we had supported him financially and with our votes and that it wasn't just black people and democrats he was hurting with his unwillingness to do anything but find blame.

And,a lot of us are just weary with the hateful, snarky, preening, self-centered screaming me me politicians that are too lazy to think and find solutions. Tate proved himself a " No Nothing"(or next to nothing) who thinks he knows everything.

And, if he paid a trainer a dime, he's a fool just looking at the lack of results!

Kingfish said...

There was no trainer. That was a smear job by the Presley campaign. The Governor way back when went to the Paul Lacoste boot camps when he had them in Flowood. Probably 60-70 people attended the boot camps at a time. Many of them politicians and yes, people in the media. That was Lacoste's role as a trainer. The $1.3 million was distributed by DHS when Bryant was Governor. Reeves was Lieutenant Governor. They were slick ads, well produced, and hard hitting, but weren't true. Reeves campaign didn't hit back at them.

Anonymous said...

I wonder where the current racial demographic of the state workers under current commissioner Brent Bailey stands?

Anyone want to make a wager on the future racial make up of that same workforce under Stamps?

Anonymous said...

Good post, KF

Kingfish said...

Wow. That's pretty racist. Any reason in his background why you might say that? He won with Democrat and Republican votes - and he knows it.

Anonymous said...

White guy in Clinton. I voted for Stamps. Solid guy. Veteran. Good morale character. I doubt we line up philosophically down the line, but I’ll take Stamps over a bought and paid for republican all day.

Anonymous said...

I guess Tate Reeves' next ambition is Cindy Hyde Smith's Senate seat in 2026.

Anonymous said...

Meet the new boss same as the old boss. Four years from now Delbert will be elected governor and on and on. We the people keep electing the same type politicians then complain that nothing meaningful happens.

Anonymous said...

1:18 PM Cindy is unbeatable. She will hold the seat as long as Diane Feinstein.

Anonymous said...

No doubt Tater going after Cindy’s seat. And, despite my dislike for Tater, he’s a helluva lot better choice than Cindy. Get along home Cindy.

Anonymous said...

6:54
I’m also plugged in , I just don’t see her being that strong . Every time I run in to her she acts like she wants to come home .

Anonymous said...

King - Tate was the go-between for Davis and Lacoste.

Anonymous said...

9:23, she had a great life in Brookhaven and being Ag Commissioner. In DC, she's in Purgatory. Welcome home, Senator Cindy!

Anonymous said...

2:42 PM is correct. Just look at Chicago, Detroit, St. Louis, Baltimore and Jackson’s history of how many decades in a row they’ve voted Democrat – look at the horrific results – and wonder why they keep doing it. It’s a Democrat third world type dictatorship right here in the USA.

Even the horrific murders of children and innocent little kids killed via stray bullets creates no change at all. Of course the elite white Democrats and their co-partner media propagandists give their wink, via silence, to the Chokwe’s that run these cities…saying hey, we won’t criticize you, we will even make excuses for you, you just gotta vote for our rich white asses come November.

Of course many, if not most of these elite rich white Democrats won’t even live in the Democrat high crime cities that their party controls (shameful hypocrisy). No, they run their hypocrite asses off to gated areas, many in Republican controlled districts. It’s real easy to not care about the horrific crime in your party’s city, when you ain’t living there.

Anonymous said...

Crawford: “The protest vote was there. It just wasn’t enough to affect the outcome.”

Translation: the manufactured crises like the state flag issue that I helped create did make a percentage of low IQ rednecks (just dumb enough to take the bait and vote against their best interest) mad enough to “protest,’ but it wasn’t enough.

The state flag and the Israel/Hamas war…with low IQ rednecks and likewise BLMers on the same team. Funny stuff.

Anonymous said...

November 12, 2023 at 11:10 PM, proof??

Anonymous said...

I didn't vote for either one.
Tate didn't deserve a vote after the way he tried to walk the line between the crying scared population the drank the propaganda koolaid, and the extremely pissed population in regard to his many covid mandates.
The fact he felt he could use the authority of the governors office to try to dictate the health choices of citizens was/is unforgivable.
The closing of state lakes and state parks was another issue.
Parroting Thomas Dobbs garbage as another.
No good he did in office erased the man we saw during covid.
He showed himself as a weak leader and pandered in whichever direction he could to try to assure himself he could get re-elected.
He was too scared to piss off half the potential voters.
Presley, as a democrat, would have been even worse with adhering to the covid propaganda.

Anonymous said...

9:43 Tate and Dobbs did an excellent job at that time with the information we had on a novel virus. They communicated daily. Unlike TRUMP who wanted to keep the virus a secret. Mississippi opened and recovered better than most states.
Having said that, I do not like Tate's elitist and narrow perspective on most issues, and I did not vote for him.

Anonymous said...

"Anyone want to make a wager on the future racial make up of that same workforce under Stamps?"

11:20 - What workforce exists at the behest of a Public Service Commissioner?

Anonymous said...

“I do not like Tate's elitist and narrow perspective”, yeah, when I see Tate Reeves, the first thing I think, there's an elitist, not. Dude, you are piss poor at trolling.


Recent Comments

Search Jackson Jambalaya

Subscribe to JJ's Youtube channel

Archives

Trollfest '09

Trollfest '07 was such a success that Jackson Jambalaya will once again host Trollfest '09. Catch this great event which will leave NE Jackson & Fondren in flames. Othor Cain and his band, The Black Power Structure headline the night while Sonjay Poontang returns for an encore performance. Former Frank Melton bodyguard Marcus Wright makes his premier appearance at Trollfest singing "I'm a Sweet Transvestite" from "The Rocky Horror Picture Show." Kamikaze will sing his new hit, “How I sold out to da Man.” Robbie Bell again performs: “Mamas, don't let your babies grow up to be Bells” and “Any friend of Ed Peters is a friend of mine”. After the show, Ms. Bell will autograph copies of her mug shot photos. In a salute to “Dancing with the Stars”, Ms. Bell and Hinds County District Attorney Robert Smith will dance the Wango Tango.

Wrestling returns, except this time it will be a Battle Royal with Othor Cain, Ben Allen, Kim Wade, Haley Fisackerly, Alan Lange, and “Big Cat” Donna Ladd all in the ring at the same time. The Battle Royal will be in a steel cage, no time limit, no referee, and the losers must leave town. Marshand Crisler will be the honorary referee (as it gives him a title without actually having to do anything).


Meet KIM Waaaaaade at the Entergy Tent. For five pesos, Kim will sell you a chance to win a deed to a crack house on Ridgeway Street stuffed in the Howard Industries pinata. Don't worry if the pinata is beaten to shreds, as Mr. Wade has Jose, Emmanuel, and Carlos, all illegal immigrants, available as replacements for the it. Upon leaving the Entergy tent, fig leaves will be available in case Entergy literally takes everything you have as part of its Trollfest ticket price adjustment charge.

Donna Ladd of The Jackson Free Press will give several classes on learning how to write. Smearing, writing without factchecking, and reporting only one side of a story will be covered. A donation to pay their taxes will be accepted and she will be signing copies of their former federal tax liens. Ms. Ladd will give a dramatic reading of her two award-winning essays (They received The Jackson Free Press "Best Of" awards.) "Why everything is always about me" and "Why I cover murders better than anyone else in Jackson".

In the spirit of helping those who are less fortunate, Trollfest '09 adopts a cause for which a portion of the proceeds and donations will be donated: Keeping Frank Melton in his home. The “Keep Frank Melton From Being Homeless” booth will sell chances for five dollars to pin the tail on the jackass. John Reeves has graciously volunteered to be the jackass for this honorable excursion into saving Frank's ass. What's an ass between two friends after all? If Mr. Reeves is unable to um, perform, Speaker Billy McCoy has also volunteered as when the word “jackass” was mentioned he immediately ran as fast as he could to sign up.


In order to help clean up the legal profession, Adam Kilgore of the Mississippi Bar will be giving away free, round-trip plane tickets to the North Pole where they keep their bar complaint forms (which are NOT available online). If you don't want to go to the North Pole, you can enjoy Brant Brantley's (of the Mississippi Commission on Judicial Performance) free guided tours of the quicksand field over by High Street where all complaints against judges disappear. If for some reason you are unable to control yourself, never fear; Judge Houston Patton will operate his jail where no lawyers are needed or allowed as you just sit there for minutes... hours.... months...years until he decides he is tired of you sitting in his jail. Do not think Judge Patton is a bad judge however as he plans to serve free Mad Dog 20/20 to all inmates.

Trollfest '09 is a pet-friendly event as well. Feel free to bring your dog with you and do not worry if your pet gets hungry, as employees of the Jackson Zoo will be on hand to provide some of their animals as food when it gets to be feeding time for your little loved one.

Relax at the Fox News Tent. Since there are only three blonde reporters in Jackson (being blonde is a requirement for working at Fox News), Megan and Kathryn from WAPT and Wendy from WLBT will be on loan to Fox. To gain admittance to the VIP section, bring either your Republican Party ID card or a Rebel Flag. Bringing both and a torn-up Obama yard sign will entitle you to free drinks served by Megan, Wendy, and Kathryn. Get your tickets now. Since this is an event for trolls, no ID is required. Just bring the hate. Bring the family, Trollfest '09 is for EVERYONE!!!

This is definitely a Beaver production.


Note: Security provided by INS.

Trollfest '07

Jackson Jambalaya is the home of Trollfest '07. Catch this great event which promises to leave NE Jackson & Fondren in flames. Sonjay Poontang and his band headline the night with a special steel cage, no time limit "loser must leave town" bout between Alan Lange and "Big Cat"Donna Ladd following afterwards. Kamikaze will perform his new song F*** Bush, he's still a _____. Did I mention there was no referee? Dr. Heddy Matthias and Lori Gregory will face off in the undercard dueling with dangling participles and other um, devices. Robbie Bell will perform Her two latest songs: My Best Friends are in the Media and Mama's, Don't Let Your Babies Grow up to be George Bell. Sid Salter of The Clarion-Ledger will host "Pin the Tail on the Trial Lawyer", sponsored by State Farm.

There will be a hugging booth where in exchange for your young son, Frank Melton will give you a loooong hug. Trollfest will have a dunking booth where Muhammed the terrorist will curse you to Allah as you try to hit a target that will drop him into a vat of pig grease. However, in the true spirit of Separate But Equal, Don Imus and someone from NE Jackson will also sit in the dunking booth for an equal amount of time. Tom Head will give a reading for two hours on why he can't figure out who the hell he is. Cliff Cargill will give lessons with his .80 caliber desert eagle, using Frank Melton photos as targets. Tackleberry will be on hand for an autograph session. KIM Waaaaaade will be passing out free titles and deeds to crackhouses formerly owned by The Wood Street Players.

If you get tired come relax at the Fox News Tent. To gain admittance to the VIP section, bring either your Republican Party ID card or a Rebel Flag. Bringing both will entitle you to free drinks.Get your tickets now. Since this is an event for trolls, no ID is required, just bring the hate. Bring the family, Trollfest '07 is for EVERYONE!!!

This is definitely a Beaver production.

Note: Security provided by INS
.