Tuesday, May 19, 2020

Guest Column: Did Researcher Find Way to Stop Second Wave of Covid-19?

Local attorney Robert Wise submitted this guest column.

In a world so quickly changed beyond our imagining, we suddenly find ourselves in an age of fever desperate for a vaccine to deliver us from COVID-19. If only we can return to the health, prosperity and comradery of the old world just two months ago. Family weddings, reunions, dinner parties and even funerals? Forget it: we can no longer trust even our dearest friends and relatives not to transmit the virus to us unwittingly unless they arrive wearing medical masks, promise not to hug us, and stay the heck six feet away.


The words now come flooding back to me in this new era with renewed poignancy from the Book of Common Prayer: “O God, make speed to save us; O Lord, make haste to help us.”

Speaking of God, thank heaven He in fact has given us scientists, healthcare professionals, computer and data experts who are making haste to save us. Even a layman like me (yet another of Jackson’s lawyers) can only be intrigued by a recent data study suggesting that if we simply extend the use of the existing MMR Vaccine (Measles, Mumps, Rubella), now commonly given to youth worldwide, to our older citizens who have not had it, we could stop a second wave of the pandemic. Most of us over the age fifty have not had the prescribed two doses of the MMR (I’m 68 and not had either). Yet most of the deaths are occurring in the older population who have not had two doses of the MMR vaccine. Is there a correlation?

Jeffrey Gold, a computer scientist and data analyst, published an epidemiological data study very recently on May 7 suggesting that there is. The MMR vaccine did not become available for children until 1971 and those recipients are now ages 49 or younger. Physicians increased the dosage in 1979 to two rounds (given at age one and then between 2 and 6). Those recipients are now ages 41 and younger.

Get this. Gold and his colleagues, looking at worldwide data, find a slight increase in the death rate from COVID-19 right around or just after 40 years old for the group that would have received only a single dose of the MMR vaccine instead of two. Then the COVID-19 death rate really takes off for those ages 50 and older who have never received a single dose of the MMR vaccine.

For example, in Italy those ages 49 and younger had a morbidity rate from COVID-19 increasing from 0% at age one up to just 0.4% at age 49. However, the death rate suddenly spikes for the age group 50 to 59 to 1%, then takes off from ages 60 to 69 to 3.5%, and from there climbs steadily.

Could it be that younger people are just more resilient and have fewer underlying conditions? Sure, in part. That’s where Gold’s data really becomes intriguing though. Gold goes on to find correlations suggesting better outcomes in COVID-19 mortality for countries that started their MMR vaccinations programs earlier rather than later. Even more impressively he finds data suggesting that the countries that have done the best of all are those forced to reimmunize their populations to include nearly everyone of all ages in just the past few decades to deal with measles outbreaks.

Hong Kong, for example, is nearly the size of New York City and the fourth most dense place in the world. Hong Kong sported crowded street demonstrations of up to a million as recently as January (think Mardi Gras on steroids with a very sharp edge). Hong Kong from 1997 on through 2020 immunized not just infants, but all children through the age of 19, and then extended the immunizations to many adults as well, especially healthcare, airport and foreign domestic workers. According to Gold’s study: “Only four people have died from COVID-19 in all of Hong Kong despite its proximity to the epicenter of the pandemic, just 563 miles away in Wuhan, China.” The contrast with New York City could not be more startling where there were 14,482 confirmed COVID-19 deaths and, in addition, 5,313 probable COVID-19 deaths during the same time. Yes, that’s nearly 20,000 deaths versus four!

Another example: on board the USS Roosevelt 1102 crew and officers tested positive for COVID-19, the heroic Captain Brett Crozier among them. There was only one death though, just seven hospitalized, and no cases were in ICU as of April 30. Just maybe it has something to do with the fact that the US military gives all recruits the MMR vaccinations upon entry regardless of vaccination history. For many young sailors that would be a double dose. Gold reports: “Currently at only a 0.6% hospitalization rate, the hospitalization rate for those on the USS Roosevelt appears to be around 20 times lower than that for the general population of COVID-19 positive people in the same age range.”

Gold notes that one is not required to vaccinate 100% of the population to reach herd immunity to point of eliminating nearly all deaths. The key is to get the transmission rate down to a reproductive number (R) of the virus spreading from one infected person to others of less than one. According to Gold, that “stops the logarithmic progression.” Further, “a drop in the R value below one likely explains why many populations through high MMR vaccination rates have reported so few deaths from COVID-19”.

Gold and his colleagues published an early version of their study on March 29 and sent it to Dr. Anthony Fauci who forwarded it to the National Institute of Health. According to Mr. Gold’s most recent press release: “Corroborating biological evidence was published twelve days later by a team of neuroscientists at the University of Cambridge in the United Kingdom, indicating that Rubella is the component of the MMR vaccine active against COVID-19.”

Gold’s study calls for “an immediate investigation of using the already available MMR Vaccine in controlled studies to show a protective benefit.” His colleague Dr. Larry Tilley, a medical internist, recently stated that that the “commonly available MMR Vaccinations could be the key to preventing a second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic this Fall.”

My interest piqued, I contacted Mr. Gold at his home in Atlanta. He tells me he was on a drive from California to Atlanta with a stop in Jackson in Mid-March when he came up with his theory. Just a few days before reaching Jackson his theory came to him, so he stopped his journey for a few days at a hotel in Humble, Texas to begin his research from a laptop. Mr. Gold decided to get the MMR vaccination right there in Humble and then, upon his return to Atlanta, got the second MMR booster two weeks later.

We are desperate to put the world back together and end the death and economic as well as social destruction. Mr. Gold noted to me that “word really has to get out and fast” about their work. His work reminds me of the moto of St. Andrew’s Episcopal School which I attended: “We will find a way, or we will make one” (Inveniemus Viam Aut Faciemus). So, Jeff Gold: God’s speed to you and your colleagues. Please keep us in Jackson informed of your progress.



16 comments:

Anonymous said...

Second wave? Bullshit!

Anonymous said...

There are all sorts of conjecture being written and this one is typical and has a typical flaw: Correlation does not prove causation. Easy trap to fall into. Dry roads don't cause rain.

Anonymous said...

If your under 60 yrs old, more people will die of the flu. Children, 12 have died and the flu kills 500 every year. This madness has to stop. All the experts say LOOK AT THE NUMBERS. We are, obviously you aren’t.

Anonymous said...

Worth a look, but ultimately sounds like finding a correlation and assuming it is the cause. How do you explain the relatively low death rate among the 50-59 age range if the MMR cutoff is 49 years ago? And maybe the survival rate among the Teddy Roosevelt crew is because they are in the military, relatively young, and tend to be in better health than average.

Way too many maybes in his statement to take any action at this point. It is possible given the correlation between another vaccine (TB) and a reduced rate of infection, but without proof it could just as likely be climate or demographic differences and taking action would be hazardous.

Anonymous said...

Pretty stupid reasoning here. The older patients were likely to get infected, since there was no vaccine during their younger years, and are usually immune on the basis of having had the actual infection. It's the principle underlying why effective vaccinations work.

File under "Duh" ;-)

Anonymous said...

I'm already bored with Coronavirus. You sheep still wearing your masks after this long are funny though.

Anonymous said...

11:37. I wear a mask if only to screw up the facial recognition software at Walmart.

Anonymous said...

Wearing a mask reduces chance of exposure by huge percentages

But keep on being obstinate under the guise of freedom

You’ll get yours one way or another.....and that’s what’s so refreshing....for once stupidity does not actually inure to the benefit of the stupid.

That is....there is actually a consequence for willful stupidity....and it could be a doozie.

So keep being stupid and obstinate you rebel rousers!


Anonymous said...

KF - are you trolling the anti-Vaxxers?

Calm Down said...

Good info and glad you posted this. A valid theory and worth tossing a few million at it to verify.

Anonymous said...

Great article. Thanks Robert and thanks Kingfish for publishing.

Anonymous said...

Excellent, Robert, excellent....thank you, and to the covidiots out there, bless your hearts.

Anonymous said...

Great article, Robert. My only critique is that this sorely overlooks the greatest, most beautiful medication of all time: hydroxychloroquine. I believe we need to manufacture this medication into both pill form and suppository form if we are going to make this country great again. I mean, what the hell do we have to lose??

Anonymous said...

To mask or not to mask that is the question..Finer examples and application of Darwin's Law will not be seen in our lifetime! it's invariably the low IQ crowd that refuses to wear a mask or maintain separation. "Gubmint ain't gonna violate my sibil rats and make me wear no mask" Maybe their reluctance concerning the mask is it's hard for them to spit their dip or French kiss their sisters while they're wearing a mask?

I'm not going out without a mask. Anybody that doesn't like it can screw themselves and if you can't stay further than 6 feet away from me I can help you with that. But I promise you,if you don't comply with one verbal request, it's going to leave a mark.

As I cast about like Diogenes with his lantern looking for one honest journalist in central Mississippi I invariably end up at this blog. So you stay healthy Kingfish! You're one of the few bright lights left shining on a rapidly rotting tree.

Anonymous said...

10:11 AM. It's you're. Not your. Pardon me, but I think I'll take my advice concerning epidemiology from literate individuals.

Anonymous said...

Breaking news: It has now been correlated that your risk of dying from COVID is related to the amount of hair on your head. In other words, loss of hair causes death from COVID.

Suscribe to latest on JJ.

Recent Comments

Search Jackson Jambalaya

Subscribe to JJ's Youtube channel

Archives

Trollfest '09

Trollfest '07 was such a success that Jackson Jambalaya will once again host Trollfest '09. Catch this great event which will leave NE Jackson & Fondren in flames. Othor Cain and his band, The Black Power Structure headline the night while Sonjay Poontang returns for an encore performance. Former Frank Melton bodyguard Marcus Wright makes his premier appearance at Trollfest singing "I'm a Sweet Transvestite" from "The Rocky Horror Picture Show." Kamikaze will sing his new hit, “How I sold out to da Man.” Robbie Bell again performs: “Mamas, don't let your babies grow up to be Bells” and “Any friend of Ed Peters is a friend of mine”. After the show, Ms. Bell will autograph copies of her mug shot photos. In a salute to “Dancing with the Stars”, Ms. Bell and Hinds County District Attorney Robert Smith will dance the Wango Tango.

Wrestling returns, except this time it will be a Battle Royal with Othor Cain, Ben Allen, Kim Wade, Haley Fisackerly, Alan Lange, and “Big Cat” Donna Ladd all in the ring at the same time. The Battle Royal will be in a steel cage, no time limit, no referee, and the losers must leave town. Marshand Crisler will be the honorary referee (as it gives him a title without actually having to do anything).


Meet KIM Waaaaaade at the Entergy Tent. For five pesos, Kim will sell you a chance to win a deed to a crack house on Ridgeway Street stuffed in the Howard Industries pinata. Don't worry if the pinata is beaten to shreds, as Mr. Wade has Jose, Emmanuel, and Carlos, all illegal immigrants, available as replacements for the it. Upon leaving the Entergy tent, fig leaves will be available in case Entergy literally takes everything you have as part of its Trollfest ticket price adjustment charge.

Donna Ladd of The Jackson Free Press will give several classes on learning how to write. Smearing, writing without factchecking, and reporting only one side of a story will be covered. A donation to pay their taxes will be accepted and she will be signing copies of their former federal tax liens. Ms. Ladd will give a dramatic reading of her two award-winning essays (They received The Jackson Free Press "Best Of" awards.) "Why everything is always about me" and "Why I cover murders better than anyone else in Jackson".

In the spirit of helping those who are less fortunate, Trollfest '09 adopts a cause for which a portion of the proceeds and donations will be donated: Keeping Frank Melton in his home. The “Keep Frank Melton From Being Homeless” booth will sell chances for five dollars to pin the tail on the jackass. John Reeves has graciously volunteered to be the jackass for this honorable excursion into saving Frank's ass. What's an ass between two friends after all? If Mr. Reeves is unable to um, perform, Speaker Billy McCoy has also volunteered as when the word “jackass” was mentioned he immediately ran as fast as he could to sign up.


In order to help clean up the legal profession, Adam Kilgore of the Mississippi Bar will be giving away free, round-trip plane tickets to the North Pole where they keep their bar complaint forms (which are NOT available online). If you don't want to go to the North Pole, you can enjoy Brant Brantley's (of the Mississippi Commission on Judicial Performance) free guided tours of the quicksand field over by High Street where all complaints against judges disappear. If for some reason you are unable to control yourself, never fear; Judge Houston Patton will operate his jail where no lawyers are needed or allowed as you just sit there for minutes... hours.... months...years until he decides he is tired of you sitting in his jail. Do not think Judge Patton is a bad judge however as he plans to serve free Mad Dog 20/20 to all inmates.

Trollfest '09 is a pet-friendly event as well. Feel free to bring your dog with you and do not worry if your pet gets hungry, as employees of the Jackson Zoo will be on hand to provide some of their animals as food when it gets to be feeding time for your little loved one.

Relax at the Fox News Tent. Since there are only three blonde reporters in Jackson (being blonde is a requirement for working at Fox News), Megan and Kathryn from WAPT and Wendy from WLBT will be on loan to Fox. To gain admittance to the VIP section, bring either your Republican Party ID card or a Rebel Flag. Bringing both and a torn-up Obama yard sign will entitle you to free drinks served by Megan, Wendy, and Kathryn. Get your tickets now. Since this is an event for trolls, no ID is required. Just bring the hate. Bring the family, Trollfest '09 is for EVERYONE!!!

This is definitely a Beaver production.


Note: Security provided by INS.

Trollfest '07

Jackson Jambalaya is the home of Trollfest '07. Catch this great event which promises to leave NE Jackson & Fondren in flames. Sonjay Poontang and his band headline the night with a special steel cage, no time limit "loser must leave town" bout between Alan Lange and "Big Cat"Donna Ladd following afterwards. Kamikaze will perform his new song F*** Bush, he's still a _____. Did I mention there was no referee? Dr. Heddy Matthias and Lori Gregory will face off in the undercard dueling with dangling participles and other um, devices. Robbie Bell will perform Her two latest songs: My Best Friends are in the Media and Mama's, Don't Let Your Babies Grow up to be George Bell. Sid Salter of The Clarion-Ledger will host "Pin the Tail on the Trial Lawyer", sponsored by State Farm.

There will be a hugging booth where in exchange for your young son, Frank Melton will give you a loooong hug. Trollfest will have a dunking booth where Muhammed the terrorist will curse you to Allah as you try to hit a target that will drop him into a vat of pig grease. However, in the true spirit of Separate But Equal, Don Imus and someone from NE Jackson will also sit in the dunking booth for an equal amount of time. Tom Head will give a reading for two hours on why he can't figure out who the hell he is. Cliff Cargill will give lessons with his .80 caliber desert eagle, using Frank Melton photos as targets. Tackleberry will be on hand for an autograph session. KIM Waaaaaade will be passing out free titles and deeds to crackhouses formerly owned by The Wood Street Players.

If you get tired come relax at the Fox News Tent. To gain admittance to the VIP section, bring either your Republican Party ID card or a Rebel Flag. Bringing both will entitle you to free drinks.Get your tickets now. Since this is an event for trolls, no ID is required, just bring the hate. Bring the family, Trollfest '07 is for EVERYONE!!!

This is definitely a Beaver production.

Note: Security provided by INS
.