Saturday, May 23, 2020

Equal Time: JP Morgan Says Lockdowns Didn't Help

JP Morgan determined Covid-19 lockdowns caused more harm than good. CNBC's Carl Quintanilla tweeted Thursday:

 More JPM: “In the absence of conclusive data, these lockdowns were justified initially.” But “millions of lives were being destroyed .. with little consideration that [lockdowns] might not only cause economic devastation but potentially more deaths than COVID-19 itself.” 


Anonymous said...

cigarettes are safe and asbestos doesn’t harm the lungs...

pretty safe to say that they aren’t looking at the data we are getting...

Anonymous said...

Lockdowns are only as good as the people following them. Here in the U.S. you still saw people going out in large groups. A lockdown would only be necessary to isolate the outbreaks and then be relaxed as people willingly followed social distancing and testing quickly identified hotspots. Unfortunately here in the U.S. common sense measures became political divisions and a significant number of people deliberately engaged in risky behavior because they viewed any inconvenience as the beginnings of tyranny.

The areas where infection rates are going down are those where people are working together as a community to prevent spreading as much as possible. On the other hand, areas like here in Mississippi where wearing a mask and not gathering in close contact with 100+ other people are actively ignored still have community spread.

The results reflect the cooperation of the community.

Anonymous said...

This JP Morgan? In November 2013, JPMorgan Chase, the nation’s largest bank, agreed to pay a then-record $13 billion fine to federal and state authorities in order to settle claims that it had misled investors in the years leading up to the financial crisis.

Oh, yeah. Did they bring up the tax cuts for the rich in the Covid Acts? The economic rescue package that became law last month is giving $174 billion in temporary tax breaks. They're intended to help small businesses. But they're going overwhelmingly to rich individuals and large companies.

Oh, yeah, I'm betting Wall Street, JP, and the other money grubbers don't have any slant on their side. Yeah.

Poor poor Jamie Dimon and his buddies. This kind of AFP LiberalTarian Rich Guy crap makes me want to puke.

Anon-E-Mouse said...

America has voted. The two week lockdown is over.

Anonymous said...

In the immortal words of the great Dr. Who, “There comes an end to everything. The last door you walk through. The last room you enter.”

Anonymous said...

"The results reflect the cooperation of the community".


Actually this reflects that we have become a nation of sissies.

Gawd, I think even France could conquer us now.

Thank the Lord 'Boomers' know how to fire weapons.
The youngsters damn sure don't even know how win a playground fight.

Anonymous said...

An appropriate lag. Let's see, it's been about a week or two, with an incubation period of 14 days, so, Nope, don't listen to crap from the Daily Mail or Fox News.

Did Fox run the stats on the counties with the highest US infection rates and death rates? Georgia, Arkansas, and Tennessee. Both metro and non-metro counties.

They won't run the truth. They run FROM the truth. The predictable, and sad, truth. Good God, wake up Tea P Sheeple.

Anonymous said...

JP Morgan wants us to continue working for slips of paper so that we can trade those slips of paper with each other over and over until we die. Because those slips of paper are very important to the fine gentlemen at JP Morgan.

Handy said...

7:20 The data shows it was mostly BS and there was never a need for lockdowns. That is what the data was showing before the lockdown. But we are two weeks behind Italy!!!!

Anonymous said...

We will never experience the world portrayed in Star Trek: The Next Generation if we continue our obsession with money and materialism. It is time for UBI and automated labor.

Anonymous said...

"Lockdowns are only as good as the people following them."
"Here in the U.S. you still saw people going out in large groups. "


And certain racial demographics never took the warnings seriously from the start.
That's a sad but true fact.

Now some 'leaders' of those groups are insinuating the pandemic was " racial" from the start.

Give me a damn break.

Kingfish said...

I would argue that banks such as JP Morgan/Chase have a strong motive for accurate information.

Anonymous said...

MS cannot be number 50 as told by many on this blog. I read from all of the leading Medical, Economic and Political persona daily. Can't be 50, no way.

Anonymous said...

JP Morgan has a strong motivation to acquire accurate information. They do not have a strong motivation to disseminate it.

Anonymous said...

KF, I appreciate the equal time you have given to skeptical views of the lockdowns and the rapidly formed conventional wisdom about the pandemic. It’s not in ANY way a dismissal of science. If anything it is an insistence on actual science, rather than fear and political manipulation. It’s also a recognition that corporate and political interests can and sometimes will lie to you in order to advance their agenda or maximize their profit. Now, perhaps you could apply that same skepticism and rationality to the related topic of childhood immunizations.
It’s not about believing/not believing in immunizations, or science, or diseases. It’s about fitting the solution to the problem without causing unnecessary collateral damage, such as the economic devastation of the lockdowns.

Anonymous said...

JP Morgan?

That there would be a totally impartial market participant!

Green Acres said...

JPM has a major conflict of interest in opining about how to handle a pandemic. Of course, it is going to condemn lockdowns because they hurt JPM's portfolio as badly or worse than the lockdowns hurt non-JPM investors. Lives matter, too, although JPM dances around that issue by claiming that being broke and poor will kill you faster than bat flu.

Anonymous said...

@9:47pm Well said. To wit...Ultimately this entire experience will have taught people worldwide one simple fact:

The lesser of two evils - When having to choose over one's health (including the risk of death, like you do when you're out driving a car) OR one's economic ability to provide for themselves.....everyone will ultimately choose economic viability and personal freedom over risk to health.

It's always been that way, always will be. People just forgot.

Anonymous said...

Awesome. Let’s read the source material, as opposed to conjecture.

Link to the JP Morgan paper, oh exalted Kingfish — I humbly beseech thee for source documents like every other post about Jackson gossip.

Otherwise, I’d just assume this guy made it up or cherry picked the things that agreed with his ideology.

Anonymous said...

KF Make that argument.
These charts are glaringly and horribly flawed both in where States are placed and that there was no accounting for time or per capita.

You should recall, at least, that MS was very late to recognize the first case and we are still climbing and ranked number 10 for States not doing well.

I would love to see what data JP Morgan used. This should be embarrassing but apparently they count on few people understanding statistics...just as they did in 2008 in snookering their clients into bad investments.

Anonymous said...

Can someone provide a direct link to the report? Even Marko Kolonavic's Twitter feed points only to Carl Quintanilla's tweets.

Anonymous said...

8:13 - completely confused. You name AR as having one of the 'highest U.S. infection and death rates'. Can you read, do you understand numbers? Look up the statistics and then try repeating that lie. With a population just slightly larger than MS the AR infections total less than half. The deaths have just now barely broken 100. And then we have dozens of other states. Check your statistics and get back to us.

Anonymous said...

Here's the problem with anti science LiberalTarians and Rich Guy Pseudoscience:

… it is a significant point for reflection that all individuals who have been called “pseudoscientists” have considered themselves to be “scientists”, with no prefix.

The answer might surprise you. When they find time after the obligation of supporting themselves, they read papers in specific areas, propose theories, gather data, write articles, and, maybe, publish them. What they imagine they are doing is, in a word, “science”.

They might be wrong about that—many of us hold incorrect judgments about the true nature of our activities—but surely it is a significant point for reflection that all individuals who have been called “pseudoscientists” have considered themselves to be “scientists”, with no prefix.

This junior JPM analyst opinion, cherry picked for the Let Her Rip Anarchists Rich Guy Association, is NOT science, or fact. It's spin, and it comes from an organization with record fines for deception.

Yet, of most importance, it is yet another non peer reviewed, junior analyst, opinion piece, labeled as though it is a scientific report.

FreeDumb of the Press, in this case.

Anonymous said...

You sound miserable. You should put on a mask and go shopping at the Pearl Walmart so you can feel superior.

Kingfish said...

I am well aware of Jefferson County. This website reported about it at the time and has reported more info on such swaps than the rest of the media in Mississippi combined.

I take reports produced by Chase seriously. Now, are they trying to manipulate things? Who knows. However, this made it to the mainstream media. CNBC reported on the report. Its coverage was widely disseminated.

Some of you are digging through the graphs, crunching the numbers, and criticizing the report. Good job. That's why I posted it. "Equal Time" is a bit of a disclaimer. Just because I post it does not mean I support it or agree with it. Many times I think such posts are worthy of attention and present facts in a different but credible light.

Anonymous said...

A couple of points:

1. See Carl Bergstrom's replies to Quintanilla's tweet about JP Morgan's report. Essentially, he points out that a quant, even one who is also a physicist, probably isn't the best source of information on a viral pandemic. Much like the previously-posted report written by economists, folks might wish to note that when Jamie Dimon was having severe chest pains, he checked himself into Mount Sinai and had a respected cardio surgeon fix him up. He did not go down to the quant department and see if any of his analysts wanted to give it a shot.

2. That said, in the US a "lockdown" as the term is currently used and in and of itself would not be particularly meaningful insofar as preventing either a pandemic or the spread of the virus. But the reason is that it really hasn't been a "lockdown" as much as a random collection of "rules" and "suggestions" that a large portion of the population has basically ignored (or even flaunted). Many people have steadfastly refused to even wear masks, practice "social distancing," restrict their activities, etc.

It is akin to many traffic laws, esp. speeding. If essentially no one pays any attention to a 65 or 70 mph speed limit on the interstate highways, you really can't glean much useful data from its mere technical existence, i.e., it cannot be accurately stated that it does or does not save lives, prevent accidents, etc. Sure, statewide, an occasional ticket for speeding is given, but really, it isn't an enforced speed _LIMIT_ as much as it is a general suggestion more noticeable in its observance than its breech.

One cannot glean much information from a "lockdown" that never truly took place. If whole families are allowed to wander around Walmart, Home Depot, Lowe's, etc. without masks, liquor, convenience, hardware, gun, etc. stores are allowed to open, it really doesn't constitute a "lockdown" even if some unfortunate retail stores and casinos, essentially chosen arbitrarily, were not allowed to open.

What is becoming clear data is that "suggestions" like wearing masks and especially respirators, "social distancing," etc. do reduce both anecdotal transmission as well the rate of transmission/infection. A "lockdown" wouldn't have even needed to be under consideration or discussion if everyone had practiced a few pretty simple rules starting at the first indications in early 2020 and for a few months thereafter.

Only a dumbass said...

When faced with a medical crisis, listen to a banker, politician, or preacher!

Anonymous said...

JP Morgan???? Does anyone really believe JP Morgan would not try to steal the pennies of the eyes of a dead man just to increase their commissions?\

Anonymous said...

Who cares what JP Morgan thinks about this situation?

Anonymous said...

KF, the key word is "credible".

The source should have some background in the subject and one should be alert to any biases and motives (like profit) they may have.

In my English class, the teacher had us read the most obvious, Mein Kampe and she took it apart and it's author. Then we were assigned to pick a non-fiction book ( which were more easily identified in those days) and write a paper on the biases ( if any) that might have skewed the focus, find any authors who disagreed, and check for inaccuracies.

That was before high school graduation and part of the overall curriculum in the State...not this State and in those days, there were no computers but there were libraries.

We also learned about empirical research in science and reading graphs in math.

Apparently, that is no longer considered basic learning and has turned us into a culture that can find something to support anything myth or belief,however unfounded, we want to be true.

There's always someone who benefits from selling you the " snake oil".

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