Monday, June 29, 2015

Longwitz poll shows "dominating" lead.

 Senator Will Longwitz (R-Ruth's Chris) released the following polling memo.




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28 comments:

Anonymous said...

Why does Longwitz feel the need to release his own poll? Are undecided voters supposed to say "well gee, according to Longwitz, he has a strong favorable ID whereas Billingsly is an "unknown quantity" guess I'll vote for him.

Anonymous said...

WHAT AN IDIOT....NO CONCEIT IN THAT FAMILY....CANNOT STAND HIM....

Polls Are Useless said...

Strong name ID as shown by poll. I hang up on all of these polls; however, I'm certain the first question was - Have you heard the name Will Longwitz? Yes or No. Well, if you said Yes, there's your strong name recognition indicator. Say it with me. Bullshit.

Anonymous said...

I was considering a vote for Longwitz but after this "poll", I think I'm going the other way.

Anonymous said...

ESTABLISHMENT RINO. FOLLOW THE MONEY.

Anonymous said...

On the 'crucial ballot test' - WL is 51%? Not that good for an incumbent. Looks like all BB has to do is increase his name ID.

And this appears to be a touchtone poll - which is the cheap way to conduct a poll, but you get what you pay for.

Notice he didn't release the questions, or the crosstabs. They must not have been quite as good as the summary makes it appear.

Anonymous said...

Let me see if I got this-Longwitz hires a firm to tell everyone he's in the lead? Sounds exactly like something he would do. It's funny because he may have name recognition, but most everyone I know can't stand him.

Anonymous said...

Don't play dumb @12:06 PM. Billingsley would do the same. Candidates nearly always release internal polling when the numbers are this outstanding. Even though he's already been attacking Longwitz as he knocks on doors the poll probably played some part in Billingsley's decision to go public with his negative attacks regarding Longwitz's role (so far) in the Oxford House story.

Anonymous said...

I was called in this poll, but when I said I was going to vote for Billingsley it asked me if I'd feel the same if I knew Senator Longwitz had authored the domestic violence thing. I said that wouldn't change my mind so it asked me if I'd feel the same if I knew Senator Longwitz had authored the state employee embezzler thing. It was a push poll, and they don't report how many people were pushed into saying they'd vote for Longwitz. The only poll that matters is the one on August 4.

Anonymous said...

Will's actually taking a stand on relevant issues has been helpful to him. He also has an incumbent's advantage. Should carry through the election.

Anonymous said...

I am a frequent reader of this page, and I have an observation to share The same handful of people pile on Longwitz every time his name appears. I am personally intrigued to see how nuclear they go after reading a poll like this one. If 12:11 is any indication, we had better strap in for a mud slinging shit storm to begin

Anonymous said...

I got that poll too. It wasn't a push poll. You are correct that the only vote that matters is on Aug 4th. I will be voting for Will Longwitz.

Anonymous said...

Hate to break it to you guys, but I have seen work done by this polling company before. They were +/- 2% in the last midterms. They don't do fake numbers. And they are good at getting it right. I don't know anything about this particular pol, I just know they are good at what they do generally.

Anonymous said...

What a goober.

Anonymous said...

Wow. Longwitz was in my neighborhood in Madison and went to my parents house in Jackson too.

Anonymous said...

Neither candidate has stated his position on the flag. It's not hard to do. I know you both have an opinion on the issue. Bill and Will, where do each of you stand on the State flag issue?

Anonymous said...

1:19 - true, everyone at OH headquarters cannot stand him. You guys are comical.

Will gets two votes in this house and everyone else we know ( that would be most of NEJ) will also be filling in the dot for Will.

Anonymous said...

How could you possibly be surprised by this? If it's accurate, it's the inevitable result of: (a) he's an incumbent in an incumbents' year, (b) his opponent thinks Oxhord Houses are great and invited them to start halfway houses IN MADISON, and (3) Franc Lee and the pay-day lenders are financing his opponent.

Anonymous said...

1:19, you forgot to mention that everyone at Dept of Mental Health hates him for calling them out, and his opponent is taking their money, too.

Anonymous said...

It's been about 3 months since KF broke the OH news. Of course, Will's been making promises since then. How's his progress going? Still nowhere? Hmmm. Only people chirping support for Will are those fools who believe his empty rhetoric about Oxford House's imminent demise.

I'm no fan of Billingsley either, but at least he's got a some sense. Will couldn't practice law so he's had to run for office.

Anonymous said...

Duuuuuude.

Anonymous said...

Rec'd the call. Took the poll. No push poll. Sorry.

Anonymous said...

I guess the 4-5 Billingsley voters, Bill has been able to garner, are out in full force today posting as fast as their fingers can type. You guys have got to be tired -- why don't you call OH in Maryland. They'll be glad to pick up the baton and continue the race. MDMH workers also get off at 5 today, so they can help pile on.

Anonymous said...

1:09 pm: If by calling Will an "Establishment RINO" you mean Will is not a Chris McDaniel groupie like your boy Bill Billingsley, so are so correct! If Bill goes in he and Chris can look out the window together.

Anonymous said...

I'm calling this race 72-28% Longwitz

Anonymous said...

It amazes me how all you "upstanding citizens" are so scared of a home that currently has 4 men in it. Instead of using all your money to support fighting the criminal in Jackson you spend it on one house of recovery where the men are sober and are causing no problems. Will Longwitz has probably spent more of your tax paying dollars with his smear campaign against OH than any money OH has received. If he is elected he's not going to care one bit about the OH issue.

Pollster (ret.) said...

Got the call also. Problem is, I'm not in the district. But it was a push poll, just not a negative push poll. (Yes, there are two different kinds.)

The fact that after you answered the initial question they 'pushed' with information to see if it would change your opinion. What 3:22 and someone else above had to say about it is based on a common thought about push polls - that they try to change your mind with negative comments about the opponent.

Either way, a push poll. A good campaign tactic, designed to find if the subject of the question changes your mind. If so, candidate adds it to campaign lit.

Push poll? Yes. Bad campaign tactic? No. Accurate poll results? Need the crosstabs to see what the numbers were before the push.

Anonymous said...

Wait a sec. How is Longwitz spending taxpayer money to "smear " Oxford house?" It seems more like the department of mental-health is wasting over $1 million in taxpayer money to support Oxford house. What am I missing here?

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