Mississippi’s August 8 primary elections may well mark the last statewide primaries that won’t be significantly influenced by demographic and generational impacts on voter behavior and partisan outcomes on key issues.
That is not to say that one can infer from Tuesday’s outcomes that seismic partisan shifts are eminent in November or even in the next courthouse-to-statehouse election cycle. But as the demographic and generational landscape changes, expect public support for bedrock issues to begin to change right along with them.
A review of the demographic/generational divisions might be in order. So, the Greatest Generation (those born between 1901 and 1927), those who lived through World War I and fought World War II and survived the Great Depression, are a benchmark for traditional American values.
Next came the so-called Silent Generation (born 1928 to 1945), traditionalists who shared many of the traits of the Greatest Generation, but were known for holding very conservative financial views, having a strong work ethic and were not dependent on technology.
Then came my generation, the Baby Boomers (born 1946 to 1964). Baby Boomers are the children of television, optimistic and industrious but prone to divorce and a distrust of government marked by the Vietnam War and Watergate. Boomers range in age from 59 to 77, so Social Security, Medicare and other healthcare issues are top of mind.
Generation X or Gen X (born 1965 to 1980) are the first generation to grow up with computers, more ethnically diverse than Boomers and generally have views that are more liberal than their elders. This generation greatly values work-life balance. In recent years, this generation is polling more conservative and Republican.
Millennials (born between 1981 to 1996) are ages 26 to 41 and the largest population group. They are the largest component of the American workforce and paying the freight on the future of Social Security and Medicare. By 2048, they are estimated to become 39 percent of the U.S. electorate. They are the most educated generation in Western history and women tend to outperform Millennial men. Millennials are tech-savvy and tech-dependent and skew liberal and Democratic in their views.
Generation Z or Gen Z (born 1997 to 2012) are ages 18 to 25) and are decidedly more liberal than Millennials or Gen Xers. The latest group, Generation A or “Plurals” (born 2013 to the present) as some call them, will be the last American generation to see a Caucasian majority. They believe in diversity. They are fluent with electronic devices and connectivity through social media. While there is yet no voting behavior to judge, this generation is believed to be skeptical of their accessibility to the “American Dream.”
How does that translate into changing Mississippi politics? I love the Neshoba County Fair and traditional political outreach – as a Boomer would – but the majority of candidate outreach in the just-completed primary election came from social media, direct mail, TV/radio broadcast or texts. There was little debate or discussion of substantive issues, but plenty of fearmongering, half-truths and innuendoes masquerading as factual information.
People have griped for decades about scorched-earth political ads, but younger generations have simply moved that kind of fare from the airwaves to social media and group texts.
In the near future, Millennials, Gen Z and Plural voters are expected to be far less moved by political rhetoric tied to race, class, or blind partisan allegiance. The storied “third rail” of politics – Social Security and Medicare – will likely be viewed differently by voters in those groups as they struggle with more Boomers receiving benefits from those programs that they will be paying into while employed.
Education will remain a core value for Millennials, but they will see certificates in specialized fields of technology as increasingly valid and necessary. Expect work-life balance issues to find their way into the mainstream political debate along with increasing attention to parks, playgrounds and accessible green space.
The partisan pendulum still heavily favors the GOP in Mississippi, but that pendulum still swings as it has in the past and almost certainly will again in the future.
Sid Salter is a syndicated columnist. Contact him at sidsalter@sidsalter.com.
31 comments:
Nothing new here. Each generation is different from the preceding generations. Social evolution.
“Mississippi’s August 8 primary elections may well mark the last statewide primaries that won’t be significantly influenced by demographic and generational impacts on voter behavior and partisan outcomes on key issues.”
Hear that everyone? No more partisan politics from here on out!
I am a millennial who believes that govt has gotten way too powerful and only the elite run our lives now, mostly from the left. The RINOs don't care, as long as they get paid. That is why I am a fan of Trump and Desantis. MS needs our own version of this, as we have idiots running. Delbert, Tate, Wicker, and McDaniel are all idiots. We need real conservative leadership. Where is it at?
Who do we all think of when we read this statement "...political rhetoric tied to race, class, or blind partisan allegiance."C'mon, don't be shy or play stupid. You all know the party that plays these cards and votes straight down the line regardless of quality of candidate. You can do it - I believe in you regardless of race, class or political allegiance.
Wow ! What unbelievable insight you have Sid. Politics change with generations ? I would have never ever thought of that. Thanks for the "heads up".
Sis-
Will Millenniels and Generation Xers continue to live with their parents?
MS will become the first majority African American state in the next 30-40 years. Young college educated white kids will continue to move out of state to places with more opportunity, entertainment and better public schools. Couple the increasing AA population with whites who vote democrat and they will start impacting state-wide elections within the next 15-20 years.
Everyone is always hollering for term limits but they continue to vote for incumbents.
"...the elite run our lives now..."
"That is why I am a fan of Trump..."
Cognitive dissonance 101
@9:53
Wrong. Hispanics will outnumber them long before then.
Hispanic kids also graduate high school at a much higher rate.
The next election will be pretty much like the last election. The one after that will be pretty much the same as the one before it. The only difference will be a few more people will realize how useless it is to vote. That number will continue to rise until the people decide they are ready to make some changes. Don't look for that in the near future.
Millennials and Gen X and Z’s won’t affect our elections because last I heard they were all leaving the state as fast as they could.
"That is why I am a fan of Trump and Desantis"
Bless your heart...
I encouraged the most brilliant of my sons to go to TX, where he is now a partner MD in a successful neurology practice. Both his brothers are settled there as well.
I left CO to marry a beautiful MS girl and live in MS. Half of this decision was brilliant. She's still beautiful. MS is as well, but only in a few rare locations.
Some y’all boomers really need to touch grass.
MS could be a great state. Too many people like the ones here making negative decisive comments to allow that to happen. People need to stop this self centered thinking and work together to build this state up. The people of MS can make a difference, let's not wait for our state government to do it.
Regarding Social Security - when the program was announced by FDR, it came with the promise that participation would be purely voluntary for employees (voluntary deductions from their paycheck). Soon the government went back on that and said 'it's not voluntary, but at least we won't tax your benefits.' Then the government said 'yeah well we decided we are going to tax your benefits.' Right now, the politicians are looking for ways to cut benefits. So it would not surprise me at all if the next step is to deduct money from two generations only to announce they will never see a penny in spite of paying in all those years.
"work-life balance issues" - yeah, they don't have any respect for the workplace and will simply not show up if something more interesting in their life happens. They couldn't start their own company and survive, yet they expect to be hired with great salaries and benefits and work at their convenience.
Quoting 9:38 AM "I am a millennial who believes that govt has gotten way too powerful and only the elite run our lives now, mostly from the left. The RINOs don't care, as long as they get paid. That is why I am a fan of Trump and Desantis. MS needs our own version of this, as we have idiots running. Delbert, Tate, Wicker, and McDaniel are all idiots. We need real conservative leadership. Where is it at?"
Hahaha! You are in no way a millennial. You sound more like an 80 year old! "RINOs", really?? "True" conservatives? Trump and Desantis will destroy young millennials Gen Z and beyond! I am truly surprised that you are aware that McDaniel is an idiot! That's the only true statement in your whining.
@1:51 Pm
I’m a millennial. 41 years old and class of 2000.
I grew up listening to Rush vs Clinton
I remember Waco.
I supported Ron Paul for president.
I remember when things were A LOT better around here.
During the best times in Mississippi, the state was actually Democrat.
Ironic, huh?
Mississippi needs a Ron or Rand Paul.
My guess is that if we did have one, they left as soon as they got their doctorate for greener pastures.
@9:38 you showed why you are a true millennial. Everyone knows you don't end a question with a preposition.
You're going to be ok though.
Signed,
A Boomer
Ya think! That is a profound statement! Pretty easy to see the new generation has different values and views of government are different than their parents
Mississippi lost 35,000 millineals during '10 to '20.
A city the size of Tupelo.
The sweet spot of our workforce suffered heavy damage.
Every college graduate is, at the point of graduation, a democrat. It only takes him/her about ten months to transition over to the sane-side.
@12:29 AM
I’ve returned to university for a business degree.
So far every single course has injected DEI, Climate Change, everything you can imagine. The closest they have come to teaching me how to turn a good profit is to repeat over and over how, “studies show that diverse companies perform better” but plenty of evidence proves that the most successful mix of “diversity” for a company is a group of educated white and Asian males.
8:07 - Exactly. I can't even use Google now without the link starting off with a lesson in DEI.
And I noticed this morning that at the bottom of the Google home page is a statement that 'We are into our third decade of knowing the value of climate control' or some such nonsense.
Appearing right NOW at the bottom of the Main Google page (with an image of a bright green leaf preceding the message):
"Our third decade of climate action: join us"
@1:39 I’m a millennial have a company and surviving. Most employers want suckers and slaves where you like to work instead of work to live. Life it about family friends and faith.
You sound like a Hosemann traditionalist who only want to keep things just as they are and hold on to power for as long as possible. No wonder young people leave this state. It’s a Boomer utopia.
You baby boomers and traditionalist are two selfish generations. Biden, Trump, Hosemann all these people won’t get out of the way because they are addicted to power. When I’m that age, I am ain’t working no job, I’m at either the bingo hall or the Bahamas.
Mississippi loses their best and brightest after graduation and IF a few come back, they are quickly run off or demeaned. They present too great a threat to the "social order" and/or make Bubba feel insecure. Even our best who try to stay are quickly lured away.
The ones who stay don't break out of the bubble and never find out that their contemporaries had a more advanced education even though they went to public schools...better than they received at a private school here.
Those who go to Ivy League schools MAY benefit from the H and P grading system which is " honors" and "pass" (those are the schools arrogant enough to think that all their students are smart and just being on campus is all that matters). Those who attend highly rated State supported schools find out freshman year that some of those in their dorms had their current texts book for math or history or literature or science while in high school so freshman year is an easy review. A few who went "out of State" finally learned the definition of plagiarism and footnotes and were expelled.
And,now, those in Florida will not even have read more than exerts from Shakespeare which will leave them unfamiliar with the words used in that period and more than a bit of history. We can pray that at least they will know what a bard is. And, they certainly won't understand what is being called " sexual innuendo" that will certainly cause their children to immediately fornicate, was "flirting". Nor will they learn that the " poetry" of pretty words and affectionate treatment result in more loyalty from women than "wham, bam, thank you m'am". And, soon, like in the Middle East, we'll have to hide girls under fabric and be unable to contain the boys who see one lock of hair or an ankle as erotic!
And, most frightening of all, we cannot teach our children how to do research correctly or think critically or that words can be powerful and define behaviors and have changed history for good or evil. Yet they will be like pot house flowers, totally unprepared to survive in the real world.
That God I had parents who understood that knowledge is power and a shield against charlatans and fools!
Like the Taliban wants only the Koran to be the reading source of education, some of you want the Bible to be. And, with ISIS as with some evangelical sects, only ONE interpretation of the words is acceptable. That why critical thinking and the ability to evaluate information independently is so important.
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