Do the Republican primary results show Gov. Tate Reeves in trouble for the general election? The relatively high 25% vote attained by his two little known opponents has sparked rampant speculation.
This speculation arises from comparing this year’s vote to primaries when three other Republican governors ran for re-election. In 2015, little known Mitch Young garnered 8% of the vote against Gov. Phil Bryant. In 2007, little known Frederick L. Jones got 7% of the vote against Gov. Haley Barbour. In 1995, little known Richard O’Hara and frequent candidate George “Wagon Wheel” Blair pulled in 6% of the vote together against Gov. Kirk Fordice.
This year little known Dr. John Witcher and David Hardigree won over 25% of the vote against Gov. Reeves.
With the average ‘aginner vote in Republican primaries around 7% based on the historic results above, who were the remaining 18%, about 66,000 voters?
One scenario suggests they were crossover Democrats.
With only one statewide race in the Democratic Primary, fewer voters participated compared to four years ago. In 2019, gubernatorial candidates pulled in 302,570 votes; unopposed down ticket races for Agriculture Commissioner and State Treasurer pulled in 253,042 and 251,591 respectively. This year, the only contested statewide race, for Agriculture Commissioner, pulled in 188,828 votes. Clearly, 60,000 or more Democrats either didn’t vote or crossed over.
While crossover was possible, the vote results provide little evidence for such. In 2019, 381,604 voted for governor in the Republican Primary. In 2023, that number was down to 369,028. A large crossover vote should have increased the total. The total vote for the highly contested race between Chris McDaniel and Lt. Gov. Delbert Hosemann did pull in 6,253 more votes than the governor’s race, far from 60,000 plus.
Of course, it is possible that a large crossover occurred in 2019 too when retired Supreme Court Chief Justice Bill Waller, Jr., challenged Reeves in the Republican Primary. But unlikely since the Democratic Primary turnout in 2019 was up 3,202 votes from 2015.
Still, if there were crossover Democrats, they were already going to vote Democrat in November.
The other scenario is that the extra 60,000 plus voters are disgruntled Republicans who will now vote for Reeves’ opponent in the general election.
In 2019, Reeves beat Democratic nominee Jim Hood by around 45,000 votes. Another 60,000 votes would have swung the election to Hood. Speculators suggest that could happen this November for Northern District Public Service Commissioner Brandon Presley.
That large a switch is unlikely. Many Republicans disgruntled with Reeves are more likely to not vote in the governor’s race than to vote for the Democratic nominee. And most conservative Republicans who liked Witcher and Hardigree will likely vote for Reeves if they vote.
“Show me the path where I should go, O Lord” - Psalm 24:4.
Crawford is a syndicated columnist from Jackson.
61 comments:
I don’t know about everyone else but I just don’t like Tate and refused to vote for him. I still won’t be voting for Presley in the general. One does not equal the other.
Bill, in your dreams.
You could have just written the last paragraph and saved yourself some time. Most voters are probably like me. I dont like Tater, so I voted for Wilcher, because I knew it didnt matter. I will vote for Tater in November, not the democrat.
Similar in the Lt. Gov. race. I’m not too fond of Dilbert and I really did not like all the negative ads i got in the mail every day. A few negative ads I can tolerate, but not all negative all the time. McDaniel is a nut. So I voted for Longino. But I’ll vote for Dilbert in November.
I guess you could call my votes protest votes.
Bill steady pushing the Democrat wagon.
Bill, I don't like Tate but if you're a betting man......
This dem vs repub mess is stupid. All I witnessed under Tate was hate and division. As a whole I hope the state doesn’t have to deal with that for another four years.
No wonder Jackson is in dire straights. I see in todays clarion ledger that Lamumba wants to raise mileage rates on Jackson property. It further states that one mill equates to $1.00 for every $1000.00 of a property’s assessed value. It further states that represents $.01 on every $100.00 of assessed value. Simple math tells us $1.00 divided by $1000.00 is ten times the stated 1 cent per every $100 old assessed property value, but what difference does misleading tax payers by a factor of 10 make.
I have voted for Tate Reeves in every election he has run in. But in this coming election up in November, I will not vote Reeves, and I want vote for a democrat either. Tate lied to the good people of Mississippi about the flag, what else has he lied to us about!!!!!!
August 20, 2023 at 9:13 AM
I did too except most of it was coming from the Mayor of Jackson. As someone who voted against Tate the first time he has secured my vote in how he stabalized the water situation in Jackon.
@9:13
Sorry but the nat'l Dem party has undeniably become an anti-American party of freaks, nut jobs and Marxists. ANYONE who still identifies themselves as a Dem will never ever get my vote. AND for the record I'm a republican who despises Trump.
I guess Bill gets paid to write his genius prognostications. Good for him. But, a better expenditure of money would be to conduct a non-biased poll, which would prove Bill to be wildly, and I do mean wildly speculative in his prose. If this is what Bill "hears out there", it speaks more to the Democrat wishfuls in the bubble of his surroundings than anything else. Idiot friends can be amusing. But, don't make the mistake of repeating their musings and be thought an idiot yourself.
@9:33
I know who you are please believe. I know who you are by the worlds you used. However I’m not here to debate you on who to vote for. Just know people like you have to have a reality check to remove hate out of their hearts.
And for the Mayor of Jackson, I pray that the FBI will open an investigation into his personal dealings. My opinion is that the Mayor of Jackson is a crime boss. He reminds me of Trump in many ways.
Mississippi Republicans are a sleepy bunch. We need people like Matt Gaetz.
I don't see it happening. You know, people here and all over the country dogshit curse Mississippi. I believe this is going to be the last conservative stronghold this country has. And when fucked up Democratic policies continue to bankrupt people and ruin communities as they have in every cotton-pickin' Dem-run city in existence today, there will be more and more people purposefully coming here. It'll be similar to Californians fleeing to Florida. The cost of living is more affordable. The agricultural landscape is ripe for lush growth of even more commodities than it has now. I just see a lot of potential for this state.
Unless the temperature continues to rise, which in that case the sun will kill us all and then it won't matter anyway. *snort*
What a world, when simple disagreement is considered hate.
I would suggest to voters who didn't vote for Reeves and deny being Trumpsters that your party is now controlled by those you know are bad news..racists,crazy people, crooks and a man who compromised our national security and those defending that which is indefensible.
The ONLY way to rid yourself of these sorry excuses for humanity are to make certain the party gets the message with them and the cowards riding their coattails all losing. Voting for those who still are afraid to stand up to Trumpsters, who support the election lie that led to Jan 6, who don't support the rule of law, and who want a theocracy or one-party rule. You will be seen as a "bird of feather" or not loyal enough, and you help risk another Civil War. If that war comes, since you weren't in full lock step, it means there won't be a safe place for you anywhere.
You risk being "the good German" who was too afraid of their version of Proud Boys and Aryans and Neo-Nazi storm troopers to stand against them. They never thought they would be required to aid and abet their neighbors being killed or to be complicit in Jews being exterminated...even those who had once been their friends or who had helped them or shown them kindness.
Before the election, I suggest running up the road to The Lincoln Library and see how many SANE ways to end slavery were offered by politicians of both parties. Yet, they were shouted down by the firebrands of both parties.
I will vote for Delbert, and he'll be a nice balance to Presley. Between the two of them, I will pray they will seize the opportunity to show what " sensible" and "civility" looks like. And,that "compromise" is only coming to the best available solution that helps the most and harms the least number of citizens until a better solution is revealed.
Trouble happens when egotistical "right fighters" who want everything to go their way or no way and want it NOW divide a society.
Murkins like to thump their chests with pride and honk about their free and fair elections. They ain't free and they ain't fair, not when one side or the other can steal an election as the republicans did in 2000 or democrats did in 2020. ("Steal and election," is that verboten here?)
Hell, vote all you want. It doesn't do any good when whatever gets enacted is overturned by some federal judge.
I am happy for law enforcement, the FBI or local to charge crimes when they have probable cause.
Whether it's Trump or Hunter Biden, the jury will decide on evidence presented and testimony sworn to under oath, not what some idiot repeats and persuades the gullible to believe!
The thing is, in much of this, there IS a record of evidence and sworn testimony and the law is what the law is written as being.
And, while I agree the law these days is too slow and cumbersome, that is solvable by State Bars and Judges who should exercise the authority they already have without fear. Once upon a time we elected and appointed judges where it was supposed to be on merit alone. But political parties became too powerful and wealthy and advertising so scientific, they even there's no party affiliation, the affiliation is NOT in doubt. Just a buzz words like "good Christian" or "family values" or " protect your rights" or"believes in the freedom to choose". Good Lord, the party extremists and ad geniuses have made us believe these things are incompatible and mutually exclusive. They ARE NOT!
Please take you brains to the election and leave your anxieties,fears and emotionalism at home. If you use your brain then common sense can happen! And if your "friends" don't accept you unless you walk in lock step with them, they aren't your friends, they are your controllers. You are part of a gang, not a social group.
Good LORD. Didn't the Ganuchump or Bobby One-Note Harrison already write nearly this exact same column? The time to beat Reeves was last election when the seat was open. Now the national Donkeys are gearing up a new Covid variant scare campaign complete with mask mandates. What is Presley going to do then?
Don’t overthink it. Large crossover turnout with the express purpose of voting against McDaniel, and while they were at it, they voted against Tater too. If Hood couldn’t beat Tater, I don’t think Presley can either. Presley really needs to buck his national party and say no regarding minors chopping their pecker off. Tate and co is taking that and running with it big time. As they should. Guys like Taylor and Hood were successful by saying “I’m not like the national party”, Presley is gonna have to do the same.
"Presley really needs to buck his national party and say no regarding minors chopping their pecker off. Tate and co is taking that and running with it big time."
In a sparsely populated state like Mississippi it will be very hard for Presley to pull that off when the word is out that at the end of the day he IS a staunch Democrat regardless of what he says just to get votes. That's all I need to know to hold my nose and vote for Tate.
"I will vote for Delbert, and he'll be a nice balance to Presley. Between the two of them, I will pray they will seize the opportunity to show what " sensible" and "civility" looks like."
With all due respect I haven't seen a "sensible and civil" Democrat in going on three decades and if you think you have please let us know who they are/were.
Jeff Foxworthy has a new joke.
You might be a redneck if you are still talking about the state flag of Mississippi.
No way will I vote for Presley and the Democrat Party values. More taxes, more giveaways, more authoritarian government, required masking when we now know it doesn’t work, required vaccines when they don’t work and cause heart problems and death,and teaching CRT and gender changing to our children and grandchildren.
I am a lifelong Republican raised in a family that always said vote for the one with an R by their name---Trump made me vote Democrat for the first time in my life and Tater will make me do it again----The Republican party has become a party of loons.
None so blind as those who will not see. Democrats are being elected in growing numbers but few realize that because a lot of those running have placed a little R by their name. Presley would have switched parties and done just that, but he knew he couldn't carry the primary so he has to stay in his lane.
The commercials for Presley should be very short and sweet.
Have a video Jeff Spicolli looking at Reeves saying “You Dick”
Problem is everyone knows it but will still vote for the little asshat
We create these problems by following the Grand Ole Party’s orders
I guess someone else will be anointed for the next election cycle but the pickins are going
to be slim
The earlier post is correct about Mississippi Today & Bobby Harrison publishing nearly the same column on Aug. 13 - a week before Mr. Crawford's piece.
https://mississippitoday.org/2023/08/13/tate-reeves-governor-poll-results/
The few of you that moved from this state's political issues to national issues make me scratch my head when you mention Trump. I understand where you're coming from but you have nary a word about the most corrupt, demented, do nothing but harm that is in office now.
August 20, 2023 at 11:07 AM
I care not a fig what you Democrats say. I'm tired of voting for spineless cuckservatives.
Tate Reeves stepped up and was an impeccable leader in the Jackson water crisis. Such actions define a man not occasional silliness like "It's a great day to not be in Jackson", a comment I thoroughly enjoyed after the Governor's generous month-long tolerance of Jackson's incompetent, impetuous fake mayor's antics.
If Hood couldn't beat Reeves, then I doubt Presley can either. Reeves will win, but with a lower margin than other GOP incumbents, because many believe Reeves' stubbornness on expanded Medicaid is hurting rural hospitals. I don't think Reeves cares about rural hospitals and would be happy if many in the Delta and inner city Jackson would leave Mississippi and move to blue states - maybe he is right.
Presley really needs to buck his national party ...
Nobody believes the 'buck the national party' line any longer. Our digitally connected world makes is impossible to hide the electoral roads in state after state littered with Democrats who made that claim to get elected then lived the lie when it came to governing. Their actions betrayed their words and the rump lovers in the media can no longer obscure the truth.
Bill Crawford is as pathetic a fraud as any columnist alive in Mississippi today.
Lack of Medicaid expansion is not hurting rural hospitals. Subsidizing operational losses doesn't make the losses go away.
I guess someone else will be anointed for the next election cycle but the pickins are going
to be slim.
Slimmer than the scammed preordained party bosses selection of a party that is 70-80% African-Americans hoping that a hackneyed familial connection to the long dead Elvis Presley might be the deciding factor? That slim?
Elections are no longer about voting "For" someone, but "Against" someone. Tate will win.
1:04, seriously you think the Democrats are not even loonier? They can’t define “woman,” think men should be allowed to have access to women’s bathrooms and locker rooms, promote mutilation of confused children, unlimited killing of the unborn, Marxist theories about race, promote excessive inflationary spending, the shutting down of energy independence, and radical climate policies that will create hardships for ordinary citizens. Those are things that define the modern Democratic Parry and you think Republicans are looney?
I’m an independent. Voted republican primary to support Delbert so voted for Reaves. But come November I’ll vote for Presley.
1:49pm
Your comment brings to my twisted mind a fleet of 16 wheeler "clinics on wheels" spread across the health-desert Delta, loading up monthly with the diseased and infirm and hauling them to UMMC parking lots for medical students/interns to practice on, still in the trailers.
So many could be better if they quit recreational drugs, alcohol over-indulgence, tobacco, STD spreading sex, fried and processed food and soda pop.
No bill, the Republican primary numbers do not spell "doom" for TATE
during the general election in November.
I read what probably amounted to half the posts on this thread before realizing KF had tricked me into wasting my time.
Presley is against HB 1020 and for allowing sex changes for minors. That’s all I need to know to make my decision to vote for Tate Reeves.
Our state governor race is a mirror image of the presidential election....I am at a loss for words how two parties continue to nominate such awful candidates. How can we not get better folks on the ballot? The system is jacked.
1:04pm
"Lifelong Republican...always voted for candidate with R by their name... Trump and Tate make me vote democrat now"?
What single policy has any democrat had, since JFK, that enables you to rationalize such aberration? Does "free stuff" drive you?
Tater and the republicans are safe for now, but the future doesn’t look good for the party.
In my rural county, (60% white) the one county-wide democrat incumbent left in office was unopposed in that primary. The Republican primary vote numbers were twice the Democrats numbers and were where nearly all of the down ticket contested races were held. In one supervisor race, the longtime incumbent was previously elected as a democrat and qualified as a Republican this year. He was challenged by two worthy opponents with one getting 48% to 32% for the incumbent. Both of those solicited and got many minority voters to vote in the GOP primary. Which other candidates did the new-found Republicans cast ballots for you ask, I don’t know. Neither Bill, Bobby, nor Adam know either. The Democrat party in this county is as good as dead, however the Republican Party here may end up being a victim of its own successes, with a coming complete reversal of primary participation from 30 years ago when 90 plus percent voted in Democrat primaries.
I have never voted for Tate. He's still hanging on to that "good ol' boy" system. Can't believe a worthy candidate didn't run against him in the primary bringing up the welfare scandal, expanding Medicaid, etc. Can't vote Presley with his gender views so I'll just leave the Guv vote blank. I'm truly looking for Phillip Gunn to run in 2027.
5:28 PM is likely correct that “republicans are safe for now” since GOD HELP US if Mississippian’s are dumb enough to see what’s happened to the Democrat controlled City of Jackson, then vote for a Democrat to be our next Governor.
But 5:28 PM is also correct that “the future doesn’t look bright for the party.” No longer property rights advocates, allowing Democrats to con them into passing a pro-deadbeat tenant Tenant Landlord law (let’s keep the deadbeats!), allowing Democrats to take over Madison County (not doing anything about Gerald Steen), the disastrous Rankin County goon squad fiasco with deputies further embarrassing the county by threating to arrest attorneys on the court house steps during the John Sullivan trial, then the Flag Island incident (what’s next?). Gluckstadt speed trapping its hard working tax paying contributors to society with a “criminal defense attorney” Judge that doesn’t even show up for court.
Republicans appear to have gotten comfortable in their little Kingdoms, greedy, only worrying about themselves, over confident since Democrats destroy cities like Jackson. But Republicans must never forget why we’re called the stupid party. Because we’re always playing checkers in the chess match.
Speaking of chess match, Democrats like Bill Crawford likely smell blood with this goon squad disaster so what happens next could be very, very interesting.
I'll vote for anybody running against Tate Reeves.
@3:57 pm, congratulations, you win the prize for being the most hard-hearted, hate-filled man on the Internet, having composed the most hard-hearted, hate-filled rant ever posted to any site anywhere anytime.
Your belief that the voters should give up their God-given rights under the United States Constitution to spend money on recreational drugs, alcohol, tobacco, to engage in disease-spreading sex, and to eat fried and processed foods while consuming mass quantities of sugar water is Exhibit A in just exactly why the GOP is the party of the past.
If these big banks would terminate the bank accounts of Mississippians for violating terms of service, I think we'd see Mississippi step into the 21st century and step smartly doing it.
You know, @3:57, if there were random drug tests performed at the polls, most people would be happy to sit at home with a stash and never vote again, I believe.
I'll vote for anyone that is not a Democrat.
10:06, since you can't believe it, I will offer you some reasoning: 1. Tate didn't have anything to do with the Welfare scandal that happened while he was LG. He wasn't over that department. Even the liberal press acknowledges this. So, I guess the R opponents in the Gubernatorial primary just didn't want to be dishonest on that point. 2. Medicaid expansion is a losing issue certainly in the R primary and marginally so in the General. That's why they didn't bring that up, even if they felt it wasn't as horrible an idea as it really is.
I'm an independent and always have been.
But, because I actually studied economics, I'm stunned that Republicans who once were fiscally on my same page, and I give them not Clinton,
credit for Clinton actually be ABLE to balance the national budget (which isn't the same as the debt munchkins (not"murkins"...what hell is that? Attempt to create a new word?)
And, I know your "esteemed leader" is responsible for the inflation you love to blame on Biden. He ignored Covid when a quarantine would have stopped it in its tracks and with support vaccinations which came quickly, we wouldn't be looking at a new strain this fall. It would be like the "common cold" for us. Combined with his tariff war, caused shortages and thus increased prices. Add to that, he didn't do a thing to help our ports deal with what was coming. He did as he always does, played golf and bragged that all was "great" and "perfect".
The economic mess Trump brought along with the increased interest rate thanks to the GOP delaying increasing the debt ceiling, is making recovery harder, but we've been recovering.The job rate is good. The GDP is good. Wages are up
What isn't good is the stock market and that is a different kettle of fish that has little to do with the Presidency and much to do with the interest rates.
WE PAY FOR INTEREST ON DEBT WITH OUR TAXES! THE DEBT isn't the same as the BUDGET! The budget runs government, the debt has been accummulated since our founding. We've always run on debt because, like a mortgage, we need to INVEST in the future to INCREASE WEALTH which lowers INTEREST. Now the dummies you elected are about to make certain our interest rate increases yet again which means we'll pay even more interest with no chance of reducing the principle or lowering interest.
It is also your GOP which have given the health insurance industry the privilege of not covering medical care that used to be covered or covered in percentages to follow increases in costs.
Please stop electing people who think they know everything and thus need not learn anything...like how government and the monetary system functions!!!!
Clinton didn't balance the budget.
10:13 AM,
What the freak are you even talking about? Isn't this thread about the Mississippi Governor's race?
The parts that I understood are all totally 100% wrong, though, I'll give you that.
@ 10:06 - Please tell us what Tate had to do with the 'welfare scandal'.
You're wrong about Gunn too. He'll either unseat Cindy or Wicker.
The real question is what will that clown on Supertalk Mid-Day run for next cycle? Is there a job in government where you can just listen to yourself talk all day long? And remind everybody you once had a business?
10:13 got published wow…must be friends with important people.
Tate is the Best Gov Miss ever had -why would you vote for a corrupt freak like Brandon ? Where are his funds coming from Dickie Scruggs ! Utility Companies - after third try with the same ring he can’t even get married correctly let alone run at s state
He is gaining weight so fast as Gov he would probably explode
All these comments saying they don't like Tate, etc. but are voting for him anyway because "Democrat" are just silly. When it comes to local politics, voting the party instead of the person is plain dumb. I get that mainstream media and national pols have driven that wedge into the country (Trump didn't help), but we've got to be smarter when it comes to local politics. I'm conservative but don't trust Tate one bit and have heard of how he'll grant anyone access just as long as the check is written. He's done nothing to move this state forward in a meaningful way and can't get along with his own party leaders. I'll vote Presley because Mississippi needs a change, and Presley, despite the "Democrat" scarlet letter, is by all means a moderate with practical ideas. Would never waste my vote on Tate.
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