Saturday, July 4, 2020

C19 Update: Hospitalizations Hit Another Record

The Mississippi State Department of Health reported 990 new cases of the Wuhan virus yesterday as well as 4 new deaths.   The total number of cases is 30,674. The virus has caused 1,107 deaths. Nursing home deaths comprise 48% of overall Covid-19 deaths in Mississippi. There are 19,388 recoveries.  More information and a complete list of infected counties can be found at the MSDH website.  The Rt factor is 1.14.


Hospitalizations? They surged to another record.


Rt remained relatively flat at 1.14.



22 comments:

Anonymous said...

Let ‘er rip!!!

Anonymous said...

ICU usages starting their upward trend. Look for deaths to follow over the next couple of weeks. Things are going to get very bad before long. Those of you crying "nothingburger" are going to see ICU capacity exceeded in the next six weeks and are going to be scratching your heads trying to figure out why the governor has to shut nonessential businesses back down.

Anonymous said...

Happy 4th of July!! Go hug your 10 closest friends inn celebration!

Anonymous said...

There will never be another shutdown

Anonymous said...

Hearing more legislators have tested positive. Do you know anything Kingfish?

Anonymous said...

Ain’t skeered! Ain’t skeered of no corona! Brang it on.

Anonymous said...

Does anyone know when the next round of stimulus checks will be released?

Anonymous said...

Gotta love the 11:18s of the world. Sources Say. I heard. I read where...

Anonymous said...

At the c-store yesterday,(I realize most folks spend less than 5 minutes inside) there was about 25 people milling around and not one of them had a mask on. I left and went down the street to one that had fewer customers and for the most part people had on mask. If they aren't using common sense, you have too.

Anonymous said...

coronavirus IS a big “nothingburger” to most of the world. not here-we politicized a scientific issue in the name of freedom.

Anonymous said...

“There will never be another shutdown”

Just like there won’t be mandatory masks in TX or shutdowns of Bars and Gyms in Florida.

Get a clue. It’s coming here, and right soon.

Anonymous said...

Are the ICU numbers COVID related, or are there patients with other medical issues such as people who put off needed surgery during the pandemic? Does the DOH differentiate between COVID illness hospitalizations and other medical hospitalization; the graph does not seem to differentiate.

Anonymous said...

Antard's mandatory mask edict is a total joke. Jackson's majority is totally blowing him off.

Anonymous said...

And death rates continue to plummet. Sheeple.

Anonymous said...

When the hospitals can't take any more patients and when we run out of Remdesivir and other treatments and when PPEs and ventilators are again in short supply...
those of you who didn't believe in science and didn't take this seriously are to blame.

Enjoying holiday weekends was more important to you than our Nation.

Anonymous said...

7:31am The " rest of the world" believes in science and can follow instructions.
We've proved we don't and can't which is why " the rest of the world" doesn't want us coming to visit.

Anonymous said...

8:58 At the top of the graph it says “patients in ICU and on ventilators are COVID-19 confirmed”. These are COVID numbers, not totals of all patients.

Anonymous said...

"And death rates continue to plummet."

"Plummet" isn't really the accurate term. The death rate does appear to be falling, but the time frame isn't yet long enough to establish a pattern. That said, even if the death rate fell to zero, and that would be good, it wouldn't mean there is nothing to worry about. It would be like getting the death rate by gunfire down to zero but having the number of shootings increase tenfold. Many of those who "recover" have serious health issues and a meaningful portion of those will be long-term, even life-shortening.

Which brings up another inaccuracy: the MDH uses the term "Presumed Recovered," and defines it as "1) It has been 14 days or more since the case tested positive, if they were not hospitalized, 2) It has been 21 days or more since the case tested positive, if they were hospitalized or hospitalization is unknown." Under these guidelines, the actor Nick Cordero has spent the last 90-100 days in ICU, has lost one leg, probably needs a double lung transplant, but recovered from COVID-19 about 80 days ago. And there are a lot of others out there just like Mr. Cordero. Apparently he's in coma so it can't be good news to him personally, but I'm sure his family and friends will take comfort knowing that under MDH guidelines, he has recovered.

Lastly, there is the issue of "Number of Cases." Many hospitals aren't testing everyone that comes to the ER with symptoms, even if it is all but medically-certain the person is infected. In many reported cases, if the symptoms don't warrant admission, the person is sent home with instructions to self-isolate, palliative care information, etc. If those symptoms worsen and they re-present, that could lead to testing, but if not, such cases are not in the "Number of Cases" number. Moreover, there are those who either do not have serious symptoms or do not seek treatment or testing. The simple fact is that the number of cases reported is actually only positive tests reported, and is therefore the lowest possible number of infections, not an inflated number of cases. In other words, any "number of cases" using the number of positive tests reported is always lower than the number of actual cases of infection. The problem is that it is very difficult in real time to determine the differential between tested positives and total infections. However, we do know that if positive tests are increasing, the rate of infection is also increasing - we just don't know in what exact ratio in real time (and it is variable, also in real time). Until we have a lot more data via both active infection and antibody testing, we won't know. What we do know is that If we do not get the number of infections way, way down, it will get very unpleasant for all of us.

Anonymous said...

Surely everyone saw the double-asterisk at the top of the first graph referencing that "Data is Provisional", which literally means "subject to being changed in the future".

I'll wait for all the data that shakes out at the end of the audits that the feds will do knowing that diagnoses are being combined - and in the meantime practice common-sense hygiene and awareness of my surroundings.

Anonymous said...

1:47 All that means is that there may be some hospitals that may not have their information sent in by the end of the day. We've seen it happen before. The numbers will take a huge drop, someone will scream "See, big nothingburger, it's over!!!", and then the next day you'll see it revised up as the MSDH gets the information and updates the chart.

There will be no audit of the reported results. There may be an audit of individual hospitals to check for accuracy at some point in the future, but even if they find discrepancies you will not see the daily charts change.

Same thing on the death chart. We know it takes time to get all of that information in and the numbers for the prior week or two are going up all the time.

It isn't anywhere near as conspiratorial as you seem to think.

Anonymous said...

10:05 - All I can do is laugh at people like you. People die. It’s one of life’s few guarantees. WuFlu is just accelerating it to an extent for a short while.

Anonymous said...

July 5, 2020 at 1:03 PM, with an update on the previous post:

Sadly, Nick Cordero died yesterday afternoon/evening. According to the reports, he entered ICU on March 30 and he was in good health with no other medical issues prior to being infected, with no latent issues discovered during his intense diagnostics and treatment. It appears nearly certain that the sole root cause for his illnesses and death was SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19. Put another way, if not for the virus and its effects, Mr. Cordero would still be alive and healthy.

According to the guidelines as presented online by MDH, Mr Cordero would have been "presumed recovered" no later than about April 20 (I don't the exact date of his first positive test). I don't point that out to make light of MDH's numbers or guidelines, only to point out that people who read the numbers need to have a very clear understanding of what they are and how they are derived to have a clear understanding of what we are facing with this pandemic. Also, having a few states' numbers falling and many states' numbers rising is just as bad as all of them rising (or good if all are falling) because state borders are largely immaterial to the overall infection rate unless those borders are completely sealed to any and all entry/exit by anyone for any reason _OR_ the people of this or that state really get serious about distancing and masks while the adjoining states party on.

We all need to hope and/or pray that we don't see a further spike in infections in the next 5-15 days due to the 4th, re-openings, etc. If we do, it will likely force some pretty unpopular things upon a lot of people.



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