Tuesday, July 14, 2020

C-19 Update: Bad to Worse

Governor says herd immunity is unpractical goal. 

Covid-19 hospitalizations surged to yet another record yesterday.  The Mississippi State Department of Health reported 805 patients required hospitalization while 227 patients were placed in ICUs, also a record.  The Department also  reported 862 new cases of the Wuhan virus yesterday as well as 23 new deaths.   The total number of cases is 37,542. The virus has caused 1,272 deaths. Nursing home deaths comprise 48% of overall Covid-19 deaths in Mississippi. There are 22,167 recoveries.  More information and a complete list of infected counties can be found at the MSDH website.  The Rt factor is 1.09.



The Rt factor declined but is still above 1.0.




Governor Tate Reeves discussed herd immunity on Facebook this morning:

 Let’s talk about herd immunity. I’ve listened to some smart people argue that the rapid spread of cases is a good thing, and we need to reach herd immunity in Mississippi and elsewhere to survive. I’m not a health care expert by any means, but I am a math guy. And I have thoughts:

The experts say we need 70-80% of the population to get COVID-19 to achieve herd immunity. Let’s assume they’re wrong (it’s certainly possible, they have been before.) Let’s assume they’re being way overly cautious and we actually only need 40% infection for herd immunity.

In Mississippi, our population is 3 million. We’ve had 36,680 cases so far.

We’d need 1.2 MILLION infections to achieve that hypothetical 40% threshold.

Over the last two weeks, our hospital system has started to become stressed to the point of pain. We are seeing the early signs and effects of it becoming overwhelmed. That’s not a hypothetical—it’s real. We had to suspend elective surgeries again.

On our worst day of new cases, we had just over 1,000. It has typically been between 700-900 during this most aggressive time.

To get to 40% infections, we’d need 3,187 new cases every day for a full year from today.

We would need to TRIPLE our worst day—every day—for a year.

I’m not one of these guys that immediately dismisses any idea that challenges the “expert” status quo talking points. I’m pretty skeptical by nature. That’s healthy. Everyone should question authority constantly.

But based on all the research I’ve done—herd immunity is not anything like a realistic solution in the short or mid-term. I really wish it was.

Unless you’re willing to go without hospitals after a car wreck or heart attack, we need a different approach. Right now, despite mixed messages from those experts at the beginning, it seems like masks are the best bet. They’re way better than widespread shut downs. I do not want to go back there, and I know you don’t either. Please wear one!

51 comments:

Anonymous said...

I wonder who is getting rich off Covid-19? Now wouldn't that make and interesting piece of journalism?

Anonymous said...

"Unless you’re willing to go without hospitals after a car wreck or heart attack, we need a different approach." Does every person that tests positive need a hospital? I'd venture an answer of no they don't. Infections do equate to being ill. This is not shown or discussed on our graphs. If a patient cannot be treated at home I believe that those needing some form of hospitalization from observation (Iv and/or oral meds) to ICU/Vent could be handled somewhere else such as the Camp Shelby type plan put up awhile back. Front line hospitals which house our Trauma Units, Cardiac Centers, etc., need not be tied up with Covid. This is where we are going to possibly sacrifice the majority of our populous with other, malady's versus Covid.

Anonymous said...

There is an ER doctor in Texas who has been sending patients home with a nebulizer and budesonide steriod and has had ZERO deaths with most recovering immediately. His video testimony is all over the internet.

Anonymous said...

Yeah, 140, I'm sure you have nailed it here.

Try to adjust your tin foil antennas so that you can divine for us who all is making money with what I'm sure you believe is a hoax so that you can share it with us.

There is no doubt some folks somewhere are making money off the COVID-19, because there are many facets to us. And thank the Good Lord that they are there - producing PPE, or working overtime in the overwhelmed hospitals, or working to develop an vaccine - whatever. All the while people like you are complaining that the capitalist system is working and thing that they are ripping off the rest of the world. What have you been doing during the past few months - flipping burgers or pumping gas?

Anonymous said...

Error correction: "Infections do equate to being ill". Should read, Infections do NOT equate to being ill.

Anonymous said...

1:54 PM: got a link?

Anonymous said...

"There is an ER doctor in Texas who has been sending patients home with a nebulizer and budesonide steriod and has had ZERO deaths with most recovering immediately. His video testimony is all over the internet." Do or can you supply a link, I for one would like to see this.

Knowing our panel of lettered and self proclaimed experts, he will be considered a hoax and not a true healer. He'll be considered right up there with Clorox injectors I'm sure.

Anonymous said...

Here you have it. They don't lie. They may just tell you their preferred segments of what is known, but they don't lie.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/none-of-us-lie-top-testing-official-defends-coronavirus-task-force/ar-BB16IUSK?ocid=msedgntp

Anonymous said...

There is a 20% cost added to patients (Medicare) admitted with a diagnosis of corona virus. It you are admitted to deliver a baby and have tested positive the hospital code will reflect that positive test and receive 20% more on the bund le. Result: statistically that is one more admission associated with the corona virus rather than one more delivery. Get the picture?

Anonymous said...

@1:56
This is 1:40 and I do consulting work in business analytics and scaling cryptographic blockchains. Do you even know what those industries are?

Your response said far more about you than my two inquisitive sentences said about me. Get a grip geezer.

Anonymous said...

@1:54 PM WOW!!! A doctor with video testimony all over the internet?!? No wonder the media hasn't picked up his miraculous success story. Just like modern medicine, they are controlled by the "shadow government" trying to force us to lock us down and wear face-masks!

However, I did note that the Northside Sun posted your op-ed.

Jeez...

Anonymous said...

So where does all the staff, equipment and supplies, transportation to and from Camp Shelby, all of the support systems for those items come from that are needed for this concept to even remotely begin to take place. Where do the patients go when they start getting better. Or worse? Where would the families drop them off or pick them up from? Where does the staff sleep? Details, details, detail is what we need since some have it all figured out for someone else to fix it.

Here's an idea. let use the answers we have now to fix it.

Stay home if you are sick.
Wash your hands regularly.
Maintain distance between people.
Wear a mask.
And most importantly, stop doing less than smart things.

How about we use the tools we have, not re-invent the wheel, or in this case, a healthcare system of care?

Anonymous said...

Actually, how is Mississippi staying so low with Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, Texas, Arkansas, and Tennessee doing worse?

Anonymous said...

As a self-confessed "geezer", I'll take stab at 218s challenge.

Jobs where you can work from your parent's basement and still have time for posting BS on the interwebs?

Anonymous said...

2:29, can we be blessed with your entry into our states political system?

Anonymous said...

If herd immunity is unpractical, then so is a vaccine.

Anonymous said...

2:29 That's too much like common sense for the average Mississippian to comprehend. They want to only apply such steps to those who are at risk and let everyone else run free. They don't understand how infectious diseases spread through the entire community and therefore the entire community must participate in mitigation for it to be effective.

This would be controllable if most people would do a few simple things.

Anonymous said...

@2:15 First have you considered it costs more to care for a COVID patient with all the protocols and PPE so maybe that extra 20% doesn't result in 20% more profits? Appears that extra 20% only applies to Medicare so it isn't like this is generating some huge incentive to improperly classify patients. Last how many people on Medicare are having babies? You do realize the eligibility requirements of Medicare right?

Anonymous said...

@1:40 there seems to be a major demand for hats made of tin foil and fake doctors with YouTube channels. I would start your research there.

Anonymous said...

"Actually, how is Mississippi staying so low with Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, Texas, Arkansas, and Tennessee doing worse?"

Because with the exception of Arkansas, Mississippi is a sh!thole state that most travelers just pass thru on their way to a better destination. Even changing the flag isn't going to change that.

Anonymous said...

@2:07 - Dr. Richard Bartlett - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eDSDdwN2Xcg&feature=youtu.be&fbclid=IwAR06EOLWUwMHxxG-uc81KU3q085PXGkBHaFhsmzP_ZtROF-NphNQJqPx5Ks

Anonymous said...

2:43 I guess what you are missing is the effects of natural herd immunity compared to a vaccination. With about 10% of the population infected the United States already has over 130,000 deaths and millions of hospitalizations. To achieve natural herd immunity you would need to multiply those numbers by at least 6, so a minimum of 750,000 dead and tens of millions of people going into the hospital.

Compare that to a vaccine which would hopefully achieve the same immunity with little-to-no major side effects.

Both will achieve the same result, but only one will kill another 3/4 million people and cost hundreds of billions of dollars in medical care and lost wages.

Anonymous said...

2:53
Check your math. So far, just over 1% of the population is infected - not 10%. So, multiple your numbers by 10 which means 7.5 million dead and that's not factoring in the people that would died because the hospitals were full.

Yes? A Question On The Back Row? said...

If the above consultant actually makes a living doing that, he's duped a number of business managers. Talk about hogwash!

And I thought consultants only dealt with flip charts and felt tip pens. Shall we order trendy sandwiches from McAlisters?

Anonymous said...

Sounds as if the good Doctor has a well working supportive care regimen. While not a CURE for the dreaded C virus, it is better than some from what I can see. Based on experience many of us in the field of medicine use basics and build on it. Some work while some don't. I'm quite sure he is not doing harm to many of his patients, based on his success rate. Also sure the folks know that this is not a truly curative therapy.

https://www.cbs7.com/2020/06/19/west-texas-doctor-claims-to-have-silver-bullet-for-covid-19/

Anonymous said...

@2:27 PM - That doc's treatment really works, but only if the patient drinks a cocktail consisting of eye of newt and ground bat wings on ice, shaken not stirred. It must be consumed during a full moon while facing west and standing on one leg.

Anonymous said...

In absence of a vaccine, we have to earn herd immunity. 1% death rate = 30,000 dead or another 29,000 +/-.

And regardless of Tate’s opinions over how well masks don’t work (60% fail rate in prevention of virus), he wants us to wear them.

Anonymous said...

My father in law recently passed awsy from cancer at 90 years old
They still did a Covid test on him which was negative
Its all about the $$ in the hospitals and patients coded with Covid get fed money

Anonymous said...

And, to think all we had to do was shelter in place for two weeks in March to flatten the curve. Guess that didn't work out as planned.

Anonymous said...

The virus doesn't know geography so even the smallest place is susceptible. I suggest that Tate extend the mask to all 52 counties if he is serious about crushing the curve. That would not cost the State anything. Failing to get the problem under control will continue to cost our health care system plenty.

Anonymous said...

3:13 That 1% is just for positive COVID tests. Medical estimates and statistical antibody testing puts the actual total infection rate at the 10% I quoted. It ranges from a low of 5% in some rural areas to a high of 25% in New York City.

Anonymous said...

@3:38 So, you are saying masks work 40% of the time. If you got sick from something, would you reject a cure that "only" works 40% of the time?

Anonymous said...

We are six months into the year 2020. Why in the hell are you all still wearing dust masks? People should be wearing full face respirators and positive pressure biohazard protection suits. I never leave home without it.

Anonymous said...

We actually did flatten the curve. Some people continue to believe that that term means eradicated. We flattened, i.e. extended the curve in hopes of having more time to prepare before it ballooned. Looks like we might have to do it again.

Green Acres said...

The herd mentality people a/k/a the sheeples need to take break from pushing the herd immunity theory. We are lightyears away from anything close to herd immunity. Meanwhile, please wear your freakin' masks and social distance.

MadisonRulz said...

And people say Mississippi can't keep up with other states.

Anonymous said...

Anyone who has had COVID, what was the treatment that was given?

Anonymous said...

OMG Kingfish, do you seek out the dumbest among us to comment? The Covid-deniers probably don’t believe the holocaust occurred and do believe Elvis is living in Belize.

Anonymous said...

So to mitigating factors in the Governors math. The asymptomatic who already have been exposed and never tested and those who got sick, never went to doctor and never tested for covid19. We are way closer to herd immunity than anyone could ever know. Many people I know want to get it and get is over with.

Anonymous said...

3:46, sorry for your loss.

Could it be that they tested your father to protect the medical personnel?

Anonymous said...

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-8519169/Real-covidiots-People-refuse-wear-mask-lower-cognitive-ability-new-study-shows.html

Anonymous said...

Nice daily fail url. But I might be more convinced of your intellectual superiority If you knew how to make a working link.
And by the way Ron Paul and his son are both real medical doctors and true patriots.

Anonymous said...

Ron Paul is an eye doctor, he has less medical training than a LPN.
And yes if you refuse to wear a mask you have below average intelligence. I don't need a link to tell me that.

Anonymous said...

HERE IS THE BOTTOM LINE:

Masks aren’t going to save anyone. They are a political CYA response to a virus molecule that won’t be stopped because of partial face coverings that are dirty, reworn everyday, and touched constantly. Fauci said this, then retracted it. WHO said asymptomatic spread doesn’t happen, then retracted it. Mandating masks just forces people to feel like they are doing something—and what do politicians ultimately want? People to re-elect them and not blame them when bad things happen.

The virus has been spreading for months now. It’s not spreading in relation to people who are being tested, that’s just one qualifier.

What would stop this panic in its tracks is simply treating people in the outpatient setting. Hydroxychloroquine was demonized because Trump used it—but it works. Even better with Zpacks and Doxy, and Zinc. Also there are breathing treatments available that are saving people in TX.

Our government (FDA) and lying media has failed us by not making these treatments standard for this pandemic emergency, and that is what is costing lives of vulnerable citizens. People wouldn’t be in the hospitals if they were treated before it got bad enough to be admitted. Right now sick people are just sitting at home isolating without being treated... and other people are avoiding the hospitals and doctors which compounds the onslaught of patients when they can’t avoid care anymore.

If someone you love is elderly or has lung/heart/diabetes/kidney issues, please go ahead and talk to their physician about HCQ or Budosenide breathing treatments (very safe) in the event they show symptoms or test positive. Do some research, and study what other counties without political motivation are doing to treat patients. This will give you a plan of action and prevent hospitalizations of your loved ones you care for. If their doctor won’t do it, or even have the conversation, try to find one that will.

Anonymous said...

9:41: You've been watching way too much Fox News to live in reality. Masks are important and help substantially. Denigrating mask wearing is not helpful to where we need to go. HCQ is no solution according to the FDA. Get a grip, live in reality (read more widely) and drop the Fox conspiracy theories.

Anonymous said...

"Ron Paul is an eye doctor, he has less medical training than a LPN."

Um...no, he's an OB/GYN, or at least he was 50 years ago. I have no idea how much actual practicing he has done or even continuing medical education he has had in the last 40 or so years but he did go to Duke med school (albeit 55-60 years ago). Moreover, there have been numerous controversies in the past over the fact that much of what appears in his various newsletters as "By Ron Paul" isn't actually written or even particularly edited by him personally. Moreover still, what anyone, particularly a doctor, said in March might be radically different from they might say today. And lastly, if Ron Paul himself would personally say the very same things today, he has lost his mind and doesn't know any more about that which he speaking than anyone else calling this a "hoax."

Anonymous said...

My apologies I got them mixed up, Irregardless, has he studied infectious diseases. Would you let your dentist do your colonoscopy?

Anonymous said...

3:38 pm Please stop with the "herd immunity" solution. You need to read more than blurbs and understand the following:
1. Not everyone who tests positive builds up enough antibodies to be immune.
2. At our current rates of community spread, the death and negative effects would be catastrophic ( see projected timelines) and that is factoring in an available immunization efficiently distributed.
3. The immunization might not work well if the virus continues to mutate.

We don't know enough yet to be a reckless as some of you are bound and determined to be.

And, some of you need to study the historic economic effects of pandemics where herd immunity didn't work out in time. You'll find losing some businesses and losing some jobs is not as bad as losing so many widget makers or the guy with the knowledge to make widgets that widgets can't be made.


Anonymous said...

Thank you for the informative and entertaining site Kingfish. Wanted to get that in there since this is my first time commenting. To those of you that want to keep trying to insult and shame Mississippi and Mississippians into doing what you've decided is best, I assure you that you will never get your way doing that. Those of us who have been hesitant about mask wearing are not just a bunch of stupid low-born hicks. I'm sure that y'all have taken the time to be informed, but we have actually done our homework as well, as you can see by many commenters on this site. Even doing no research, if you've been paying attention to the news at all you could easily come down on either side of this issue, because the many of the experts that we've all been told to listen to, including the WHO and Pope Fauci (praise be upon him) have been on both sides of the issue. Mississippi is not having these problems just because masking, there are new outbreaks happening in many areas all over the world where y'all say all the smart masked people live, like Eastern Europe and even Hong Kong, which has been held up by the media as a shining example to shame all us dumb Americans. In addition to this we've been told all of our lives by progressives and libertarians alike that it's none of our business what people do with their own bodies, whether it affects others or our society or not, with things such as abortion, drugs, pornography, and dangerous sexual behaviors.

In addition to all this there's been no flu season in which i've ever been told to mask or else i'm the devil's progeny. I understand that this is a worse situation but the flu is actually more dangerous to a more wide age demographic. Both myself and my sons had the flu in February and none of the healthcare personnel that we came into contact with had masks on or put them on the entire time we were in contact with them. I'm pretty sure they had some on hand and would have used them if they thought it effective in keeping themselves safe.

All that to say, y'all keep shaming and calling anyone who disagrees with you stupid, and see how that works out for you. Respect my existence, or expect my resistance.

Calm Down said...

at 11:23 AM

Wait a minute...Dentists are not supposed to do colonoscopies? I knew something wasn't right!

Anonymous said...

@10:19 am:

That is a sad response to what I posted. Apparently you are enlightened as to how to stop a global pandemic re “Don’t watch Fox and wear a mask.” Well, good luck! Best of luck to you and yours. That solution is working brilliantly so far! Instead of using modern medicine let’s re-enter the Dark Ages with social distancing, isolation, and a “hope it works out for ya” approach.

I have no agenda in my comment other than offering REAL suggestions and hope to those who may need it. HCQ has been suppressed for a political agenda, and it is a proven drug that’s been around for decades, and it’s saving lives around the world. I personally know someone (high risk category) who took it and has avoided a hospital stay—completely cured 3 days after treatment. This person would have wound up in the ICU if left untreated.

I’ve done my research and read many studies/articles showing the efficacy of multiple treatments that are being suppressed by the media and corrupt politicians at the highest levels of our nation. If you don’t want to believe this, that’s fine, your choice—continue watching CNN and absorbing daily panic attacks on the local news.

See what I did there?

To those who are interested in actual modern medicine: again, please consult with your doctor about potential treatments if you have an at-risk loved one! Having a plan in place may save their life.

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