Thursday, July 16, 2020

C19 Update: Yet Another Record Set

The Mississippi State Department of Health reported 1,230 new cases of the Wuhan virus yesterday as well as 18 new deaths. The total number of cases is 39,797. The virus has caused 1,308 deaths. Nursing home deaths comprise 48% of overall Covid-19 deaths in Mississippi. There are 25,932 recoveries. More information and a complete list of infected counties can be found at the MSDH website. The Rt factor is 1.05.

 Hospitalizations surged, skyrocketed, shot up, whatever you want to call it, to 855 patients while ICUs rose to 247 patients.  There were 451 hospitalizations and 160 ICU's on June 16. 

 The Rt value is declining somewhat but is still above 1.0.




40 comments:

Anonymous said...

Where’s our spreadsheet guy?

Anonymous said...

We have essentially seen a doubling of COVID consequences over the last month, and it is showing little sign of slowing down any time soon. The Rt is dropping some, but the hospitalizations lag by a couple of weeks and deaths lag by 3-4 weeks. We are going to see those numbers climb further for a while.

Governor is going to have to step up to the plate and do something. I just hope he can make the decision while there is still time to reign things in on a selective basis. Statewide mask ordinance and a ban on gatherings of more than 20.

I heard the Mississippi Association of Supervisors was going to hold their conference in August unless the health department ordered them to shut down. Sounds like a challenge to me. Your move Dr. Dobbs.

Anonymous said...

How does the Rt factor decreasing relate to new cases increasing?

Anonymous said...

Im still not wearing a cuck muzzle

Anonymous said...

It puts the mask upon its skin
or it gets locked down again.

At least the R/t factor is coming down.

Anonymous said...

Roughly 90 people die in MS every day (all causes); we are currently seeing around 18 C19 deaths per day.

To date there have been 1,308 C19 deaths in MS: No pediatric deaths, over 1/3 of these deaths occurred among 80+ (avg life expectancy 75), 99.7% of MS C19 deaths involve underlying health conditions.

According to latest national IHME projections, we are facing a 0.07% US death rate (i.e. 99.93% of all Americans will survive the COVID-19 pandemic).

Anonymous said...

The total number of cases is 39,797. The virus has caused 1,308 deaths. leaving 38489. There are 25,932 recoveries. Leaving 12,557. Taking into account that hospitalizations, which one may assume include ICU/Vent patients since these folks are not normally treated on an OP basis is 855 patients. Of the 1308 deaths 48% or roughly 625 people are from a NHC or LTC setting.

Todays chart shows 855 infected as of 7/15 with 262 people with Suspected Infections, whatever that means, Sure someone will explain that to mean. Like possibly being pregnant without any testing or proof.

That leaves 11,702 people that are either unaccounted for or MIA. While I'm sure some are in the hospital either being observed or at home resting, nothing on the site indicates any breakdown in regards to this.

Anonymous said...

2:28 The Rt is a measure of how many infections each infected person causes. Anything above 1.0 means the number of daily infections is going to get higher. An exact 1.0 means the number of daily infections will stay the same over time. Even though the Rt may be decreasing the number of new infections won't also start decreasing until Rt falls below 1.0 and we are a long way from that.

Anonymous said...

There is no way we should be opening schools in less than a month. These classrooms are going to be petri dishes that the students then leave and take the virus home to mom, dad, grandma, grandpa, etc. And that doesn't take into account the teachers and staff members who are not medical workers and did not sign up to be sacrificial lambs.

Anonymous said...

2:58 According to the IHME we are facing a 0.07% U.S. death rate just through November 1. According to covid19-projections.com only 16% of the U.S. population will have been infected by that time. The pandemic is not going to suddenly go away like a miracle on November 1.

Assuming 75% to be herd immunity where there won't be widespread transmission, that means you would need another four times more people infected and dead than we have now. By the time this pandemic was finished naturally you would have a 0.35% death rate in the U.S. which would be just over a million citizens lives cut short.

Anonymous said...

The difference is just those that have tested positive but are not presumed recovered or dead. The 11,702 are the people who don't meet the criteria for "recovered" and are still infected either in the hospital or at home.

From the MSDH website linked above.

Presumed recovered if:
1) It has been 14 days or more since the case tested positive, if they were not hospitalized
2) It has been 21 days or more since the case tested positive, if they were hospitalized or hospitalization was unknown.

All deaths excluded. Presumed recovered counts will be updated weekly.

Anonymous said...

129 you mean betterthanever?

Anonymous said...

The majority of us are not only sick but we are also tired of any reporting whatsoever about this so-called virus. All this nonsense had better not stop football from happening.

Football = “The lifeblood of our country.”

Source: https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/29467402/lsu-football-coach-ed-orgeron-says-country-needs-football-pandemic

Anonymous said...

Why hasn't the Governor (and Health Officer) not closed bars and restaurants to indoor business? Seems to me that is a simple measure that will effectively slow it down.

Anonymous said...

3:40 Ed Orgeron has over $6 million reasons to push for the football season to happen. His opinion is heavily biased.

Anonymous said...

Football = “The lifeblood of our country.”

That explains why our country is in such a disgraceful state.

Anonymous said...

2:28, short answer to your question is math. Should have paid attention in high school.

Anonymous said...

@3:42 - Because doing so will just delay the inevitable. The virus is going to do its thing regardless until a certain level of seroprevalence is achieved. If we lock down again, achievement of that level will just be further delayed. Protect the vulnerable with all our might but let the rest of us get exposed as quickly as possible while helping leaders manage hospital loads. Most of us just need to go back to the basics (washing hands often, using hand sanitizer often, if the grocery store is at peak time then visit later, etc.) to limit the amount of us getting it at once.

Anonymous said...

3:42, why hasn't the governor closed bars and restaurants to indoor business? Because there's no need to close them. Masks eliminate transmission, we read somewhere. Everyone just needs to put on their mask and get out there and spend money. And do it quickly and repeatedly. It's all good.

Anonymous said...

I’m sick of the “all or nothing” shut down, open up mentality. Packed bars and nightclubs and irresponsible people hosting large gatherings have caused 90% of this. It’s going to be criminal for all of these bars to be packed one day, and then the next day little shops and dental offices have to close again.

Anonymous said...

To all those throwing out how small the death rate is and this and that... ITS NOT ABOUT THE DEATH RATE. It's about controlling the spread so the hospital's won't be full of COVID patients and will be able to handle the normal traumatic cases that arise on a daily basis. This thing is going to spread whether we want it to or not. Why some people can't understand that is beyond me. Either willful blindness or you are just bored and want to stir the garbage up.

Anonymous said...

" Why hasn't the Governor (and Health Officer) not closed bars and restaurants to indoor business? Seems to me that is a simple measure that will effectively slow it down."

It will be interesting to see how that works out.
I can't see a positive outcome should Tate decide to go down that path.

My Gawd, we're already seeing deadly confrontations between maskers and non maskers.

It seems very obvious.

Dobbs is loving the publicity, Tate is in a dilemma.

Tate wants to please everyone so he can get reelected. Dobbs only wants to stay on the evening news.






Anonymous said...

4:09 You got an inside scoop that none of the vaccines or treatments under development are going to work? Natural infection is not the only way to achieve immunity. Delaying the spread of the disease until then (likely in December or January from what Dr. Fauci is saying) will result in a million American lives saved. The virus "doing its thing" is almost certainly not inevitable.

Anonymous said...

What line represents hospitalizations? I see ICU and ventilator data, but nothing on hospitalizations?

More positives should not be surprising or concerning as we are testing many more people; there are probably 10 times more positives that reflected. Plus all the false positives that are being reported.

Anonymous said...

If we treated people in the outpatient setting, that would reduce Covid admissions and the hospitalization rate would decline. There ARE treatments but the media and politicians have suppressed them.

If you have an at-risk loved one please speak to your doctor about potentially life-saving treatments. Do your research. Find unbiased information if you can—see how other countries are saving lives.

Hydroxychloroquine, Zpack/Doxy, & Zinc successful in USA and worldwide
Budosenide breathing treatments successful in TX
Read about Dr. Reed Hogan’s successful treatment protocol here in MS

Please take an active stand with your Doctor. Demand MS physicians quit playing politics and provide actual treatment. MS could actually be a leader in prevention of Covid deaths if we came together and started saving our sick/elderly with treatments before they are so sick they have to be hospitalized.

Anonymous said...

Mask or no mask, bars open or not open - it doesn't really matter in terms of what will happen over the next month, because the hospital and ICU caseload caused by the people already infected and which we can reasonably presume will be hospitalized within the next month will overwhelm the hospital system. Somebody better pivot very quickly to doing whatever it takes to expand capacity or we will have a huge (and largely preventable) mess on our hands.

Expand capacity now!

Anonymous said...

" little shops have to close again. "

Sorry Karen, times have changed since last March.

Anonymous said...

3:52 sounds like someone who never made the team, growing up. Just because you weren't good enough to get on the field doesn't mean that you shouldn't support the players who are! Now that is what is Un-American and disgraceful.

We need FOOTBALL!!!!!

Anonymous said...

Echo chamber here regarding COVID. Put on a mask and avoid another shutdown. It’s a mask and not a big deal. Grow up people so we can continue to be free. When your friends and family lose their livelihood at least you can pound your chest and sing “I did it my way”

Anonymous said...

I wish this thing would hurry up and make serious dent in the leftist population. It was supposed to spread last month. It's why we patriots all stayed home while they threw their little tantrums.

Anonymous said...

I'm waiting for some real crisis. I mean something that will make everyone sit and take notice, not something as low ball as this thing.

Anonymous said...

6:32 pm Name all the Democrats ( or Rinos you probably think are liberal ) in government not wearing masks.

Anonymous said...

5:40 The top red line is confirmed COVID patients in the hospital. The green line is suspected COVID patients in the hospital (those admitted whose tests haven't come back yet but are suffering COVID symptoms).

Anonymous said...

These Covid posts are getting stale. I miss better than ever. Hope he’s ok. Wish he would chime back in with some insight.

Anonymous said...

Tate, the virus is not confined to 13 counties. A statewide mask requirement costs nothing. Do it !!!! It’s the least you can do.

Anonymous said...

The good news is the percentage of death in closed cases is going down. I would think this indicates that the virus is getting weaker.

Anonymous said...

Facemask mandates only do as good as a temporary measure. What if Mississippi required facemasks for the next year? What then, do we not let people from other states in since the people did so much to protect their selves? So the entire United States? And then? Nobody from outside the United States can enter and no one can leave?

We wait for a vaccine and mandate it? There is 8 billion people in the world, we can't even get 330 million Americans to wear a mask, how are you going to get 8 billion people to wear a mask, get a vaccine, or whatever you think you need to force people to do?

Anonymous said...

8:30 And you would probably be wrong. The more likely cause is we are figuring out better treatments for the disease, are better protecting those at high risk of death like nursing home residents, and there is a huge increase in infections of younger people with a higher survival rate.

Thomas Gentry said...

Breaking news in Tupelo: Hospital(s) at full capacity...new patients being transferred to Memphis.

Anonymous said...

This situation is deteriorating, not improving. Stay home. Wear a mask in public. Respect other’s space.

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Trollfest '07 was such a success that Jackson Jambalaya will once again host Trollfest '09. Catch this great event which will leave NE Jackson & Fondren in flames. Othor Cain and his band, The Black Power Structure headline the night while Sonjay Poontang returns for an encore performance. Former Frank Melton bodyguard Marcus Wright makes his premier appearance at Trollfest singing "I'm a Sweet Transvestite" from "The Rocky Horror Picture Show." Kamikaze will sing his new hit, “How I sold out to da Man.” Robbie Bell again performs: “Mamas, don't let your babies grow up to be Bells” and “Any friend of Ed Peters is a friend of mine”. After the show, Ms. Bell will autograph copies of her mug shot photos. In a salute to “Dancing with the Stars”, Ms. Bell and Hinds County District Attorney Robert Smith will dance the Wango Tango.

Wrestling returns, except this time it will be a Battle Royal with Othor Cain, Ben Allen, Kim Wade, Haley Fisackerly, Alan Lange, and “Big Cat” Donna Ladd all in the ring at the same time. The Battle Royal will be in a steel cage, no time limit, no referee, and the losers must leave town. Marshand Crisler will be the honorary referee (as it gives him a title without actually having to do anything).


Meet KIM Waaaaaade at the Entergy Tent. For five pesos, Kim will sell you a chance to win a deed to a crack house on Ridgeway Street stuffed in the Howard Industries pinata. Don't worry if the pinata is beaten to shreds, as Mr. Wade has Jose, Emmanuel, and Carlos, all illegal immigrants, available as replacements for the it. Upon leaving the Entergy tent, fig leaves will be available in case Entergy literally takes everything you have as part of its Trollfest ticket price adjustment charge.

Donna Ladd of The Jackson Free Press will give several classes on learning how to write. Smearing, writing without factchecking, and reporting only one side of a story will be covered. A donation to pay their taxes will be accepted and she will be signing copies of their former federal tax liens. Ms. Ladd will give a dramatic reading of her two award-winning essays (They received The Jackson Free Press "Best Of" awards.) "Why everything is always about me" and "Why I cover murders better than anyone else in Jackson".

In the spirit of helping those who are less fortunate, Trollfest '09 adopts a cause for which a portion of the proceeds and donations will be donated: Keeping Frank Melton in his home. The “Keep Frank Melton From Being Homeless” booth will sell chances for five dollars to pin the tail on the jackass. John Reeves has graciously volunteered to be the jackass for this honorable excursion into saving Frank's ass. What's an ass between two friends after all? If Mr. Reeves is unable to um, perform, Speaker Billy McCoy has also volunteered as when the word “jackass” was mentioned he immediately ran as fast as he could to sign up.


In order to help clean up the legal profession, Adam Kilgore of the Mississippi Bar will be giving away free, round-trip plane tickets to the North Pole where they keep their bar complaint forms (which are NOT available online). If you don't want to go to the North Pole, you can enjoy Brant Brantley's (of the Mississippi Commission on Judicial Performance) free guided tours of the quicksand field over by High Street where all complaints against judges disappear. If for some reason you are unable to control yourself, never fear; Judge Houston Patton will operate his jail where no lawyers are needed or allowed as you just sit there for minutes... hours.... months...years until he decides he is tired of you sitting in his jail. Do not think Judge Patton is a bad judge however as he plans to serve free Mad Dog 20/20 to all inmates.

Trollfest '09 is a pet-friendly event as well. Feel free to bring your dog with you and do not worry if your pet gets hungry, as employees of the Jackson Zoo will be on hand to provide some of their animals as food when it gets to be feeding time for your little loved one.

Relax at the Fox News Tent. Since there are only three blonde reporters in Jackson (being blonde is a requirement for working at Fox News), Megan and Kathryn from WAPT and Wendy from WLBT will be on loan to Fox. To gain admittance to the VIP section, bring either your Republican Party ID card or a Rebel Flag. Bringing both and a torn-up Obama yard sign will entitle you to free drinks served by Megan, Wendy, and Kathryn. Get your tickets now. Since this is an event for trolls, no ID is required. Just bring the hate. Bring the family, Trollfest '09 is for EVERYONE!!!

This is definitely a Beaver production.


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Jackson Jambalaya is the home of Trollfest '07. Catch this great event which promises to leave NE Jackson & Fondren in flames. Sonjay Poontang and his band headline the night with a special steel cage, no time limit "loser must leave town" bout between Alan Lange and "Big Cat"Donna Ladd following afterwards. Kamikaze will perform his new song F*** Bush, he's still a _____. Did I mention there was no referee? Dr. Heddy Matthias and Lori Gregory will face off in the undercard dueling with dangling participles and other um, devices. Robbie Bell will perform Her two latest songs: My Best Friends are in the Media and Mama's, Don't Let Your Babies Grow up to be George Bell. Sid Salter of The Clarion-Ledger will host "Pin the Tail on the Trial Lawyer", sponsored by State Farm.

There will be a hugging booth where in exchange for your young son, Frank Melton will give you a loooong hug. Trollfest will have a dunking booth where Muhammed the terrorist will curse you to Allah as you try to hit a target that will drop him into a vat of pig grease. However, in the true spirit of Separate But Equal, Don Imus and someone from NE Jackson will also sit in the dunking booth for an equal amount of time. Tom Head will give a reading for two hours on why he can't figure out who the hell he is. Cliff Cargill will give lessons with his .80 caliber desert eagle, using Frank Melton photos as targets. Tackleberry will be on hand for an autograph session. KIM Waaaaaade will be passing out free titles and deeds to crackhouses formerly owned by The Wood Street Players.

If you get tired come relax at the Fox News Tent. To gain admittance to the VIP section, bring either your Republican Party ID card or a Rebel Flag. Bringing both will entitle you to free drinks.Get your tickets now. Since this is an event for trolls, no ID is required, just bring the hate. Bring the family, Trollfest '07 is for EVERYONE!!!

This is definitely a Beaver production.

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