Friday, March 6, 2020

Doctor Talks Some Sense on COVID-19

Finally a doctor talks some good sense about the Coronavirus.  Dr. Jeremy Faust, a Boston ER Doc, wrote in Slate that the mortality rates for the virus will probably decline and fall below 1%.  The virus is "relatively benign" for young people although a serious danger to elderly patients who were already sick or had compromised immune systems.  Dr. Faust wrote:

The public is behaving as if this epidemic is the next Spanish flu, which is frankly understandable given that initial reports have staked COVID-19 mortality at about 2–3 percent, quite similar to the 1918 pandemic that killed tens of millions of people.

Allow me to be the bearer of good news. These frightening numbers are unlikely to hold. The true case fatality rate, known as CFR, of this virus is likely to be far lower than current reports suggest. Even some lower estimates, such as the 1 percent death rate recently mentioned by the directors of the National Institutes of Health and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, likely substantially overstate the case. 

 We shouldn’t be surprised that the numbers are inflated. In past epidemics, initial CFRs were floridly exaggerated. For example, in the 2009 H1N1 pandemic some early estimates were 10 times greater than the eventual CFR, of 1.28 percent....

 But the most straightforward and compelling evidence that the true case fatality rate of SARS-CoV-2 is well under 1 percent comes not from statistical trends and methodological massage, but from data from the Diamond Princess cruise outbreak and subsequent quarantine off the coast of Japan. 

A quarantined boat is an ideal—if unfortunate—natural laboratory to study a virus. Many variables normally impossible to control are controlled. We know that all but one patient boarded the boat without the virus...

 This is where the Diamond Princess data provides important insight. Of the 3,711 people on board, at least 705 have tested positive for the virus (which, considering the confines, conditions, and how contagious this virus appears to be, is surprisingly low). Of those, more than half are asymptomatic, while very few asymptomatic people were detected in China. This alone suggests a halving of the virus’s true fatality rate. 

On the Diamond Princess, six deaths have occurred among the passengers, constituting a case fatality rate of 0.85 percent. Unlike the data from China and elsewhere, where sorting out why a patient died is extremely difficult, we can assume that these are excess fatalities—they wouldn’t have occurred but for SARS-CoV-2. The most important insight is that all six fatalities occurred in patients who are more than 70 years old. Not a single Diamond Princess patient under age 70 has died. If the numbers from reports out of China had held, the expected number of deaths in those under 70 should have been around four....

 The data from the Diamond Princess suggest an eightfold lower mortality amongst patients older than 70 and threefold lower mortality in patients over 80 compared to what was reported in China initially. But even those numbers, 1.1 percent and 4.9 percent respectively, are concerning. But there’s another thing that’s worth remembering: These patients were likely exposed repeatedly to concentrated viral loads (which can cause worse illness). Some treatments were delayed. So even the lower CFR found on the Diamond Princess could have been even lower, with proper protocols..... Rest of essay.

Nice to see someone talking some sense.  Hopefully the hysteria will subside.  


Anonymous said...

Wow so Rush is Right (as usual) President Trump was correct and totally vindicated (also as usual) and the media once again lied (disgraceful as usual) and successfully weaponized a potential health crisis to affect the outcome of the 2020. So when do we start punishing the lying seditious political operatives that pose as journalists?

Anonymous said...

Only problem is Missippi has a disproportionate number of people with compromised health. They have COPD or are Obese.

Anonymous said...

@5:29 which makes them susceptible to death by influenza and pneumonia.
As well as stroke, diabetes, and heart disease. None of which warrant a media driven campaign of sensationalism, panic hording, and financial market turmoil.

Anonymous said...

5:29, the proverbial "thinning the herd" might be a good thing for the health of the planet and those of us that are still around.

TheClintonscantsuicideusall said...

Still no reason to panic. This so far has not impacted human kind other than by politicians and medical personnel needing a crisis. But, what the hell, can't let a crisis go to waste now can we.

Anonymous said...

335,000,000 people. 225 affected. What a PANDEMIC. I wish some of these sissies in the media had played football in high school.

Anonymous said...

6:45, Seriously? I will take my fellow citizens, bad habits and all, over a smug, self righteous, ass ...any day.

“Thinning of the herd”
just ew.

Anonymous said...

Global Economy.... Global problem that's why the stock markets are crashing.

Anonymous said...

The only pandemic is the 24/7 partisan news channels. Journalism has been sacrificed for the never ending burnt dumpster scrounge for more viewers. I do believe the left is more to blame than the right in this matter but Fox News is still nearly as insufferable as the others.

Anonymous said...

I second what 7:56 said

Anonymous said...

I have a hard time believing that the largest economies in the world would knowingly shoot themselves
in the foot over this.
Given the fact that Mississippi the highest rate of STDs, I have little doubt that Covid-19 will have a
field day here.

Anonymous said...

Coronavirus kills 3000 people and we lose our minds. The Flu has killed over 20,000 so far this year. But Cardiovascular Disease kills 640,000 each year in the U.S. alone, and we smile when we see fried chicken between two donuts.

Get. A. Grip. people.....

Thinning The Professorial Herd said...

SEVEN WORDS: Probably, Likely, Suggests, Estimates, Reportedly, Assumed and Unlikely. Unlike George Carlin's 7-famous words, you can find these seven in this article. Feel better?

Anonymous said...

What some of you (and apparently this doctor) are missing is that there are vaccines for the strains of flu that kill people each year and still many die. There isn't a vaccine for this one and there won't be one available when it cycles back again in the fall, there still won't be a vaccine to reduce the number of deaths.

While 80% of the deaths have been in those over 65 or with underlying conditions, 20% of death were not and that includes the 61 year old Chinese doctor who raised the alarm. Healthy people can die from complications from the flu.

I agree the media is contributing to an over reaction that exacerbates the problem ...price gouging, runs on supplies that could be more efficiently distributed, etc. Just be sensible and try not to be a modern version of Typhoid Mary.

But, I'm less than pleased with the response...especially that testing has been turned over to corporations without conditions or agreements with insurance companies. If the testing cost is prohibitive ( already $3000+ has been reported in other countries), fewer people with be tested and thus the virus becomes more wide spread.

Occasionally, the public interest needs to trump profit. Polio vaccines were free.

Anonymous said...

What many of you rubes don't realize is that a person infected with Covid-19 is most likely asymptomatic and more likely to spread the virus through large workforces working in confined spaces, mass gatherings, schools etc. The end result will be lost time from work, decrease in travel except you guys are so smart take a Disney cruise and take one for the team. This type of ignorance and ignorance of science is why we're here. Kiss your 401ks goodbye tough guys.

Anonymous said...

Spanish Flu and Yellow Fever, Covid-19 is not. I'm old enough to remember the H1N1 panic. Trump's response is better than Obama's was to that outbreak.

Get a grip. If the media wasnt hyping this then you wouldnt even know it was happening. A real panic worthy pandemic is when people around you are sick and dying and the public has very little knowledge or understanding.

This is an obvious attempt by the lying press to meddle in the 2020 elections by shitting on Trump's economy pure and simple.

Anonymous said...

In this article you will find these words: probably, suggests, likely, estimates, reportedly, assumed, unlikely.

All of you who were constitutional lawyers during the supreme court hearings are now airborne virus experts.

Anonymous said...

@8:41 - I’m not kissing anything goodbye. This is a huge buying opportunity, and I’m taking full advantage of it. When the market rebounds, and it will, I’ll be laughing at dunces like you.

Anonymous said...

Here's some perspective. More people died last night in a hotel collapse that was being used as a quarantine than actually died from Covid-19 yesterday.

Anonymous said...

This is just an uncommon cold. 1/3rd of colds are caused by a coronavirus

Anonymous said...

Lol@ 401's. One of the major sources of income for Mississippi Republicans is a disability check. Red-state equals welfare state.

Anonymous said...

The CDC botched the testing from the get go and continues to drag a** while it also is in full denial mode. The World Health Organization didn’t want to call it a pandemic bc it might make matters worse.

There is a boat off the California coast that will essentially double the amount of counted cases once they are let off.

People are stealing hand sanitizer in hospitals. This is all lacking the fact that there are probably many more cases than counted because of the testing issue. It’s like accounting fraud, but with a disease.

I completely get why Trump is playing it cool, stupid or both. That doesn’t mean I have to think this will wind up well in the US.

Anonymous said...

In 8 months America will save Mississippi, the new president and vice president will be in town Sunday.

Anonymous said...

9:31 am A few of us knew the century we are in when we got out of bed this morning . We even know the difference between a building collapse and a virus. Yellow fever and the Spanish flu ? Really? Inquiring minds want to know: What things did not exist when those events took place?

H1N1 was contained and contained quickly because of the response. The medical threats of this century were contained because of early reaction, not over-reaction.

This administration severely cut CDC funds from the get go which impacted the vaccination development effort and supply chains. Worse, this administration sent government employees without protective gear to deal with Americans exposed to this virus and thus could well be the cause of some of the " community" spread.

China bears the greatest responsibility for the aftermath because of their delay in notifying the World Health Org.

A flaw of nationalism is that one forgets they have to share the planet with others just like we have to share neighborhoods with others. Isolation is not an option, it's a fantasy.

Do you really think other countries are quarantining millions and/or closing schools because this is virus is " no big deal?"

No, it's because they know any flu will cost lives and that in the case of this one, the usual safeguards to reduce risk were not in place.

There are some things that should be not be political , based on the financial profit, and most certainly not the egotistic needs of one man to maintain his power or popularity (this last includes not giving government jobs or appointments to political flunkies who are incompetent and not using the national wealth as a reward system).

Anonymous said...

Responding to 11:58 am. Please only comment if you know what you are talking about. The current administration in Washington is headed by a complete bully and jerk. Without question. He has a repulsive personality. But in this instance (now) he is doing a great job.

The CDC is leading and the FDA is on board and together they are providing the best information possible. Trump, though an asshole, is doing the right thing. His administration is knocking down barriers to make government work. I am in the coronavirus testing business, with an independent lab, and his office is clearing the path so that we can offer testing to our nation. When we have a barrier (e.g., CMS (Medicare)), we have a direct line to the White House to have them correct government red tape. And they are doing it for us. The guy (Trump) may be a prick but he is doing the right thing.

Anonymous said...

11:58 AM
Get a grip. The only CDC funding that got cut was ridiculous leftist anti-2A programs. Your dishonesty is shameful.

You need to wake up to the fact that the only regions of this country facing catastrophe are the unsanitary leftist shit holes that brought it on themselves.

Suffering most are sanctuary cities in Democrat states that repeatedly fight the President's attempts to keep this country safe with EO's denying entry to people who shouldnt be permitted entry for numerous now appearant reasons.

Anonymous said...

What's more scary ?

A new Chinese "flu" . . . or WLBT replacing their helicopter with a "Traffic Tracker" screen.

I really need to see Barbie brought out of retirement to tell me the obvious . . . (traffic is slow on the stack during morning rush hour).

Anonymous said...

I guess all the foreigners that work at his club have been tested and they are ok.

Anonymous said...

The Trump administration fired the U.S. pandemic response team in 2018 to cut costs.


Anonymous said...

1:58 pm Please, that " bully" who continues to tell lies and spread bad information is now and had already made it harder for those " deep state" career people at CDC and the NIH to do their jobs in informing the populace and in having the tools on hand to do their jobs or help you do yours.

Critical days and weeks before "cutting red tape" were lost? How many people with flu symptoms weren't tested or asked about their travel. How many tests have been given here in Mississippi?

That many in the administration are doing end runs around Trump now instead of enabling him is because they " get" the necessity and their families are at risk,too. But, even the self- quarantined Trump enablers are still putting politics first.

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Trollfest '07 was such a success that Jackson Jambalaya will once again host Trollfest '09. Catch this great event which will leave NE Jackson & Fondren in flames. Othor Cain and his band, The Black Power Structure headline the night while Sonjay Poontang returns for an encore performance. Former Frank Melton bodyguard Marcus Wright makes his premier appearance at Trollfest singing "I'm a Sweet Transvestite" from "The Rocky Horror Picture Show." Kamikaze will sing his new hit, “How I sold out to da Man.” Robbie Bell again performs: “Mamas, don't let your babies grow up to be Bells” and “Any friend of Ed Peters is a friend of mine”. After the show, Ms. Bell will autograph copies of her mug shot photos. In a salute to “Dancing with the Stars”, Ms. Bell and Hinds County District Attorney Robert Smith will dance the Wango Tango.

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If you get tired come relax at the Fox News Tent. To gain admittance to the VIP section, bring either your Republican Party ID card or a Rebel Flag. Bringing both will entitle you to free drinks.Get your tickets now. Since this is an event for trolls, no ID is required, just bring the hate. Bring the family, Trollfest '07 is for EVERYONE!!!

This is definitely a Beaver production.

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