Jackson Jambalaya

We’re still at least a week from seeing if distancing made a difference as many new cases are from patients who started showing symptoms before March 20, which would mean they were infected before the mass isolation that started on the 16th.

The one new death was in the 40-49 age range.

Here’s a good plan on what to do nationwide for the future. Everything hinges on rapid, widespread testing to get outbreaks isolated quickly. Open things up only when spread is stable and hospital capacity is adequate for the area. Maintain distancing for at-risk populations until a treatment or vaccine can be developed. Limits on large gatherings. Wear a damn mask in public.

https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/national-coronavirus-response-a-road-map-to-reopening/

We can get through this without tanking the economy if we can take some common sense actions.

Very wise advice from 11:07

Another miss by Chicken Little BTE.

@11:07 Everyone needs test results back quickly, same day would be best. Hard to get on front of the infections when data takes days to come back. MS is outsourcing at least some of the testing to private lab(s), so clearly the state's lab(s) can't deliver results either from a volume or timeliness perspective.

Today's numbers (from Sat) seem low. Much lower than expected.

@11:27 Not another miss. Cases continue to rise. One data point does not make a trend. And again, put up or shut up.

Bennie, shove your lockdown. Antard couldn't enforce a lockdown even if he actually knew how to do his job as Mayor.

Wide-spread testing will only work IF they can speed up the testing process. This one week turnaround time is not going to cut it.

11:27 am = another comment from Alfred E Newman.

PS The Earth is not flat or do you also believe the shots of the Earth from the moon are a hoax as well?

Regardless of the numbers, I will be exercising my rights come Friday. This would have gone on long enough by then. Two weeks is all I will volunteer. Life's short enough. I'd rather spend it doing the things I like to do than waiting on the government to tell me when/what I can or can't do. IMO.

Well, I'd call this partial social distancing. China put the clamps down and got this thing under control. We can't keep our people from going to the grocery store twice a day, every day, because that is the only social outlet we have. People are gathering, they just aren't going to work or school. Everybody assumes that their little group or family is safe, its those other people who should quarantine. Its going to get much much worse, then we will actually put the clamps down and get it under control. The economy will be in shambles by then unfortunately.

Check out the front page article from the Sunday Biloxi Sun Herald. I'm very
interested on your take.

I was out today and people still don't get the "social distancing" thing.

Social distancing sucks. It might as well be called self imprisonment. That’s all I’ve got.

These obsessive folks are gonna kill themselves without getting this claimed dreaded end of mankind disease. They think they can hide from or avoid infection by our new segregation plans. My God 14 have died since this all started, 14. Yes more will most likely die, but 14. Wonder how many have died from Cancer, CAD/Stroke, Diabetes complications, MVA, etc since this began. While you all hide just remember, this will never ever go away and others at other times will test positive. A negative test today may turn positive next year. A vaccine WILL be developed and then it will depend on the folks to use it or not. Day to day folks, that how to live.

Regardless of the numbers, I will be exercising my rights come Friday. This would have gone on long enough by then. Two weeks is all I will volunteer. Life's short enough. I'd rather spend it doing the things I like to do than waiting on the government to tell me when/what I can or can't do. IMO.

"These obsessive folks are gonna kill themselves without getting this claimed dreaded end of mankind disease. They think they can hide from or avoid infection by our new segregation plans. My God 14 have died since this all started, 14. Yes more will most likely die, but 14. Wonder how many have died from Cancer, CAD/Stroke, Diabetes complications, MVA, etc since this began. While you all hide just remember, this will never ever go away and others at other times will test positive. A negative test today may turn positive next year. A vaccine WILL be developed and then it will depend on the folks to use it or not. Day to day folks, that how to live."

14 dead out of 700+ makes the death rate a little less than 2%. In reality, the death rate is much, much, lower as many of the infected will have mild or no symptoms and recover without ever being tested and identified as have COVID-19. The real death rate will likely be well under .05%

After listening to Reeves this week, and then, listening to Cuomo giving a speech to the National Guard, Reeves definitely has a lot to learn about leadership during this crisis:

https://wcbs880.radio.com/articles/news/cuomo-announces-4-more-temporary-hospitals

Deaths will fractionally mirror infections, but will lag 2-3 weeks behind.

If you want a good look at what the USA is looking like, visit:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Total infections

Sorry, accidentally hit 'enter' on the last post when I was not done.

Deaths will mirror infections, but at a cut rate. They will lag infections by 2-3 weeks.

If you want a good picture of what's going on in the US:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

infections 136k
new infections 12k
daily transmittal rate 9.7%

We are near the top of the daily rates. Considering our 50% rural dispersion and low population density means we are really doing a poor job containing this thing.

Could the count of reported cases continue to rise as as additional testing takes place? Seems likely it will. Easy grab for sensational reporting. If I recall the MS Dept of Health reported 1.8k fatalities from the flu in 2018-19. What's the count today? That count will inevitably increase also. More food for the sensationalist reporting. It's been well known that practicing good hygiene helps in avoidance of contracting all types of diseases and that includes COVID-19. In the grocery today I noted one less educated individual out shopping with four children. I hope they have no contacts with higher risk friends or relatives. Come on folks practice some common sense and always question the media and the facts they spew.

After suffering through two weeks of inconvenience, it sounds like some of us feel entitled to a martyr award. Absent some strong leadership from Governor Reeves, move over Italy, here we come.

NOTE: I'm referring to the government-ain't-gonna-tell-me-what-to-do crowd, and the "I'm bored" crowd, NOT those who must leave home to go to work in order to survive and/or feed and shelter their families.

No one cares about containing it. The point of the quarantine was to slow it to a point in which the "system" could handle to inflow. I would say it has and the quarantine/stay-at-home should end by Friday. The high density areas, perhaps longer. MS most likely can go back to business as usual next week. The strain thus far is below 2009 swine flu outbreak numbers given the same 3 to 4 months of the initial start.

Do we assume that the count for 'regular' flu deaths will now be counted as CV19 deaths, just to be sure that we can pump up those rookie numbers?

Has an antibody test been developed yet?

@3:00 Projected infections aside, here are the daily increases since day 1.

3
1
5
2
22
16
30
60
67
42
71
57
108
94
84
95

Trending up or down you think? Expect to be peaking in approx 6-8 weeks. If NY has not peaked yet then we are 2-3 weeks behind them.

You are right in that we can't stop it. We are slowing it down, but not enough.

Exponential growth means that at 21% transmittal rate (pretty close to the current growth number), we go from 1 million infected in MS alone to the entire state (increase of 2 million more) in 6 days.

It's compound interest in reverse, like a mortgage. In the early years your principle is not dropping much. Takes years/decades for it to even move much. Then, right at the end of the 30 year note, you begin to make real headway.

The infection rate is the same. The only reason the numbers change daily is because the amount of people being tested. We have indeed given it enough time to lower the curve. People being admitted and released is increasing and those being admitted and sent to the icu are decreasing as well (5 to 7 day average in icu before going to an individual room or dying). Things have been worse in the past. With the summer heat and people that can no longer support their families, the Covid-19 will fade rapidly from the majority unaffected.

"we go from 1 million infected in MS alone to the entire state (increase of 2 million more) in 6 days."

Isn't that more than the entire population of the state? So, are people going to get infected twice? Will infected out-of-staters move to MS to keep the infection rate increasing forever?

@7:33 Where are you getting your fact that the number of ICU admissions are dropping in MS? I can’t find that anywhere. Closest thing I see is the percentage of confirmed cases that are hospitalized which has stayed in the 33% range according to MSDH. More cases at the same admission rate would normally mean more admissions, but since I have nothing but logic to back that up I’ll defer to your source for a reduction in the number of ICU admissions when you post it.