Jackson Jambalaya

I have a nurse friend in North MS who said when they brought in body bags to the hospital yesterday, it hit everyone hard how serious this is.

Almost, but not quite, 1000 reported by Monday. There are still probably more than 1000 untested cases in MS.

Also, I prefer the term "Died with Covid-19" instead of "died from" as Covid-19 isn't killing many without pre-existing conditions that could already kill them without Covid-19.

Despite the JJ loitering trolls and partisans who breathlessly hope for infection spread, lockdowns and deaths in order to indict Reeves, Trump, conservative and Republicans, we're doing a good job Mississippi. Keep it up!

BTE missed by a country mile today.

There are still probably more than 1000 untested cases in MS.

How do you know?

@10:14 AM, which hospital?

Continued linear growth is great. Provides evidence the social distancing is helping. Big spike in cases with symptom onset on March 20, but these people were likely infected before the distancing started in earnest on the 16th. I pray this trend continues and we are spared the worst of what was predicted.

Watch actually video of the hospitals around the country. It's not exactly blowing the doors down. Completely controlable. If you think I'm lying, look for yourself. Complete government hyper over reaction.

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I have a nurse friend in North MS who said when they brought in body bags to the hospital yesterday, it hit everyone hard how serious this is.
March 31, 2020 at 10:14 AM
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Kingfish didn’t you just scold people on here last night about gossiping about rumor liquor stores

Stop with the conspiracy theories that people who take COVID-19 seriously are part of some hoax to hurt conservatives, such as Trump and Reeves (looking at you 10:17). As annoying as your propensity towards fake news was before, now it's dangerous.

And what on earth has Tate Reeves done right -- other than allow this situation to get out of hand before taking virtually any steps? We are already up to 20 deaths here, which more than doubles the "1%" estimate the "JuSt tHe FlU" group was posting on here.

What steps do you want taken 10:56 that haven't been taken short of lockdowns? Be specific.

March 31, 2020 at 10:56 AM = Fake Comment

@ 10:17, can you please pass the doobie this way? Ah, that’s it. Groovy!

@10:56, how many obese diabetics with heart disease and liver cirrhosis would you imagine die every day in Mississippi from the complications of their poor health caused by life choices? I'm willing to bet cash money it is the exact same amount dying from Covid-19 because that's the type this "novel" cold virus is killing.

Lord have mercy @10:56- You sound ridiculous. More than 937 people live in my central MS neighborhood alone. The total of 20 deaths out of MS's population of approximately 3,000,000 is WAY less than any other cause of death. DANGEROUS?!? Why are you freaking out?

I bet you think shopping with gloves on is productive? I mean, wearing gloves while touching the items you are carrying back TO YOUR HOME makes intelligent sense (insert eye roll.) Are you cleaning EVERYTHING you carry into your home? (You know good and well people aren't... but them gloves are saving the world!!) (Insert another eye roll.)

I bet you also believe the bodies are stacking up in NYC. Statistically, less people are dying in NYC right now than normal average. The hysteria with the refrigerated trucks is comical. If they want to announce the trucks to store the COVID-19 bodies outside of their normal morgue facilities, that's one thing... instead they choose to convince people those in NYC are dropping dead at unprecedented rates... THEY ARE NOT!!

I don't have issues with respecting the effort to curb the spread of the virus. I have HUGE issues with the HYSTERIA and FEAR being used to try to MANIPULATE compliance.

10:16- If an obese diabetic dies from pneumonia due to covid, covid is the cause in fact of his/her death. The underlying condition was a manageable one, and he/she still had years of life expectancy left. I’m sure there are people out there are dying “with covid” as you state, but to imply that this virus is not actually killing anybody is just wrong.

iTs JuST a SimPLe ExpoNentiAL mATh PrOblem

Recalcuted numbers and explanation coming in 3....2....1

@10;56 must be living under a rug. Perfectly healthy 20, 30, and 40 year olds are dying from COVID-19, all over the world, and they will sadly die here, too.And that includes a number of nurses and doctors who did not suffer from chronic conditions. Your comments are more than ignorant. They are dangerous.

11:36, I wear protective gloves (not the type that medical facilities need) while shopping because I have to touch surfaces in the store that many other people touch. I do this not for myself or to make a political statement. I do this because I have people who in my life who are in good health but are in the age group most at risk of serious complications and death from COVID-19.

As I've said before, I think the best-case scenario is that the measures we have taken/are taking/will take work. Then, when life begins to return to normalcy, those who downplayed the whole thing get to claim victory because it didn't get as bad as the model analyses.

11:36 am Will you and others please try to get the following into your thick skulls the following:

1. This is a NEW cause of death
2. NO PLACE has peaked and this could continue into the fall if you naysayers keep passing it around.
3. If our medical system is overwhelmed and medical staff continue to die, people will die from things they would have lived through from lack of treatment.
4.MS was already losing population and can't afford to lose more
5. This virus is now known to kill those who are not old and don't have an underlying condition ( though those in the last two are at higher risk).

For the Darwinists: Survival of the fittest isn't,sadly, survival of the smartest.

@12:05 & 12:45, please tell us where it is killing healthy adults? Other than some viral (lol) social media posts, I can't find a single legit news source with a shred of evidence that Covid-19 is killing healthy young people.
I can find dozens of articles where healthy people young and old survive it with little or no symptoms.

@12:45-
1. Yes, it is, but treatments are already under way and would be implemented at faster rates if politics weren't so ugly. Further, if NEW CAUSES OF DEATH caused pandemics, we'd stay in a constant state of pandemic.

2. How do you know it hasn't peaked? EVERYONE is guessing. I'm not a naysayer. I clearly said before I respect the efforts to curb the spread. The HYSTERIA (for example, "NO PLACE has peaked...") is what I despise.

3. Hospitals were honestly a mess before this virus. Medical staff are people, too. They are not immune to mortality. This is true for every single disease they treat. The stress from the shortage of supplies (due to hysterical hoarders) and the media's hysteria over the virus are likely way more damaging to their psyche and well-being than actually treating the patients.

4. I pray you were being sarcastic when you typed this point. Please for the love of all things holy do some research on the number of Mississippians that die EVERY SINGLE DAY. Heck, more than 20 people in Jackson are typically shot during the same time period!

5. You do realize the "no underlying conditions" is based on KNOWN information. It's highly possible these people did not know they had an underlying condition. Using this to frighten people is not valid unless a complete autopsy is performed on these people to determine whether they TRULY had no underlying conditions. Perfectly healthy people DO drop dead... afterwhich their "underlying" condition is "diagnosed."

I'm no Darwinists, but you're not sounding like one of the fittest (or the smartest.)

12:05. That's an untruth. And anyone that tests positive for Covid-19 and dies, regardless if it was the cause, will be counted as a Covid-19 death.

This entire Covid-19 conspiracy is Psychological Operation (psyop) perpetrated on the world by the globalist elite. Nothing is really happening beyond sickly people catching a novel cold virus and dying in seriously small numbers, less than 40,0000 worldwide so far. The media driven panic and hysteria is being used to usher in a new era of tyrannical surveillance and federal debt. And you dummies are jumping and dancing around like so many conditioned circus ape performers.

10:35, you've missed the point by overestimating the robustness of your society.

The whole thing doesn't have to burn down for the sthtf. All you need is to lose the handle on thing in a few major cities relatively simultaneously-all resources have to be redirected...then as that happens, it emerges within smaller cities with exponential growth and where are the resources then?

Which is hopefully NOT what we're seeing now, but if you think this is tin foil hat talk, you would do well to educate yourself on the tail risk involved here.

And Mississippi would do well to take more serious action now.

Went to geezer hour at Walmart this AM. Amazing the number of people that use no protection at all. 350 lb. gentlemen in a power shopping cart, shorts, t shirt, no gloves no mask. People 1 foot apart catching up on the latest gossip.

Shopping rules I live by. Long sleeve shirt, jeans, socks, leather shoes, gloves, mask. Small spray bottle of 3% hydrogen peroxide, and wipes. Load items in the back of my SUV and spray down the baggage. Spray gloves, remove mask and spray it, Wipe steering wheel. and seat with Lysol wipes.

Remove items in garage, spray everything with either the H P or Lysol spray before bringing them in the house. Wipe all items with wipes before storing. Remove all clothing and shoes ans wash clothes. Wash fruits and veggies and bag.

Extreme yes, but yesterday I talked to a business associate living in New York city. After 16 days his fever was back to normal from 102 to 103 the entire time. He was in great physical condition before contracting Covid-19 and he said it was the worst experience he'd ever gone through.

1:36- Imagine thinking that you're smarter than all the epidemiologists and doctors who say this is serious. Imagine thinking that your general knowledge and crude reasoning is superior to entire academic disciplines.

https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/the-younger-victims-of-coronavirus/

Spoon feeding Mr. T'ain't Nuttin' Conspiracy Monger.

Just think. Years from now, when you are sitting around the fireplace with your grandchild on your knee, you can say, The pyres for the dead lit up the night sky. It was medieval.

Shopping rules I live by.

Get over yourself.

@2:11, please tell me you aren't gloating over an article listing less than 10 deaths in a nation of over 300 million on a planet of near 7 billion.

@10:17 To the anonymous coward: Since I projected 957 and we have 937 I'd say I'm darn close.

I applaud Tate shutting down Lauderdale. It's late, but better than nothing. I look forward to shutting down the hinds/rankin/madison area, but that will probably be last.

I stand by my numbers. The daily rate is ticking downward thankfully. Unless every single person in the state stays home it will NOT get to zero. The national rate is 9.7% but we are still over 10.

2:1. Apparently, they were unaware or unknowning of an underlying problem.

Updated from yesterday's post:

I went back and looked at the day to day percentages starting with the initial confirmed case on Mar 11. It looks like we are seeing MS's numbers _begin_ to line up with USA overall (9.7%) daily rate.

300%
25%
100%
20%
67%
70%
47%
60%
75%
48%
20%
29%
18%
29%
19%
15%
14%
12%
11% (3-30-2020)

Sort of splitting the difference here, but around 13% looks reasonable for now. If this continues to hold, I would expect to see the following over the next 5 days.

847
957
1,081
1,221
1,379

There is a bottom limit, a mathematical asymptote, that we will not go below. Where that is remains to be seen. Also to note, even if/when MS gets to 10% daily rate, that still means just under 1k new confirmed each day by end of April.

Any model has trouble hitting a moving target. At least MS daily numbers are dropping. It's important to find new ways to not spread this thing. Stay home. Wipe down door handles. Etc.

Even at 10% daily rate, it covers the whole state by June 30.

Experts are saying wearing gloves are worse than bare hands. Gloves collect the gunk easier than skin. Wash hands often and use wipes and sanitizer.

I wonder: does the daily rate of 90 cases tell us more about our testing capacity per day than about the number of cases?

BTE keeps revising his BS numbers then pats himself on the back for coming close. You're a joke dude.

What we have really lost in all of this is reason. Face it, folks, we are all going to die one day. Like when weathercasters say "chance of tornadoes is low but not impossible," so the same is life and death. You may make it to the next minute, but you may not. Risk is part of life risk every day. WAKE UP!! If you are alive now you may not be tomorrow. If you get the virus, you will get the virus. You may be lucky not to get it or have symptoms, or you may not. You are more likely to die in a car crash or get murdered in Chicago. I'd rather live my life than run and hide from a chance so remote.

"This entire Covid-19 conspiracy is Psychological Operation (psyop) perpetrated on the world by the globalist elite. Nothing is really happening beyond sickly people catching a novel cold virus and dying in seriously small numbers, less than 40,0000 worldwide so far. The media driven panic and hysteria is being used to usher in a new era of tyrannical surveillance and federal debt. And you dummies are jumping and dancing around like so many conditioned circus ape performers". I actually have though this myself, but I enjoy watch chaos and people go slap ass crazy over things. As you said, the circus does go on. Out every day and like BTE I have a critical, very critical position, but I have do it outside dealing with folks face to face. Stay thirsty my friends.

@2:02 PM, Never underestimate peoples willingness to parrot a narrative to get on TV/Social media and have 15 minutes of fame.

The desire to become "viral" is absolutely sickening.

"Even at 10% daily rate, it covers the whole state by June 30. "

As I said a few days ago on this blog, name one population that became 100% infected by an infectious organism.

I'm still waiting.

SPEED UP THE TESTING!
SPEED UP THE RESULTS!
This data is useless because of the delay in timing.

Large numbers of young people are being hospitalized with COVID-19.

https://buffalonews.com/2020/03/31/county-on-brink-of-500-covid-19-cases-as-it-announces-36-new-cases/

This recent study shows the death rate expected for people in their 20's (data from Britain) is about 1 in 300.

MONDAY, March 30, 2020 (HealthDay News) -- Once infected with the new coronavirus, a 20-something has about a 1% chance of illness so severe it requires hospitalization, and that risk rises to more than 8% for people in their 50s and to nearly 19% for people over 80, a comprehensive new analysis finds.
in prior estimates, the new report found among diagnosed cases, just under 1.4% of patients will die, according to a team led by Neil Ferguson, of the Imperial College London.

And when undiagnosed cases -- typically individuals with mild or no symptoms -- are added into the mix, the overall death rate from coronavirus infections drops further to 0.66%, the British researchers found.
That's still much higher than the 0.02% death rate observed during the H1N1 flu season of 2009, the investigators noted.

A person's odds for death after infection with the new coronavirus also rose with age. An estimated 0.031% of people in their 20s will die, the new analysis found, compared to 7.8% of people over 80.

1:15 your statistical analysis lacks a couple of required details -- statistics and analysis.

Your relating the COVID deaths to the number of deaths that occur everyday in Mississippi skips the little detail that people are still regularly dying every day in Mississippi - and are not being counted in these numbers. Those that are dying every day are doing so largely from normal reasons - underlying causes, accidents, or sudden medical issues unrelated to COVID. The COVID deaths are over and above those deaths; and to say its ONLY affecting those that have underlying conditions is idiotic, unless you're basing it on a theory that anybody is 'likely to die' at any particular point in their life if they encounter a medical setback, be it COVID or some other unusual situation such as being bitten by a rabid dog or getting a blood clot from a broken leg.

Yes, if one has an immune system that is somehow weakened, catching the COVID flu will certainly have a worse effect on them. Just as having a weakened immune system makes you more susceptible to dying from any other strain of the flu.

Problem with your analysis is that your referencing how many people die regularly includes those that have weakened immunity and catch a good ol' fashioned strain of flu - something that is still happening today. What we have now is a much more transmittal form of a corona virus than we've seen before and besides being easier transmitted it is much more deadly than most other viruses.

But keep on living (I hope) in your simple world and enjoy your 'facts' as you see them. In the meantime, I hope most folks will listen to people that actually deal with facts - real facts not those made up by such 'analysis' as yours.

Maybe we can hope for some Darwinism affect here - survival of the more intellectual as opposed to fittest, and those that do die will be ones who don't believe or understand what facts clearly show.

Do you people really not get that it’s NOT the virus? (Leaving aside, NONE of us know the long term effects of the virus regarding life expectancy, qol, etc.)

It’s the knock on effects, you idiots!

No one gives a f**k anymore.

If the media wasn't crowing about this all day every day then 90% of the population would not even notice Covid-19. Only medical professionals would notice a spike in morbidity of those vulnerable populations.

What really pisses me off is social media panic convinced me yesterday to buy 2 cases of irish whisky and now I have nothing to do but sit around and drink myself to death.

Just remember you can bitch, moan and groan and make unrealistic deals with your choice of a God, but we will ALL die regardless. If it is by the dreaded Covid, it is by the dreaded Covid. It makes no sense to drive yourselves crazy over this.

No Mask just use your wife's scarf, don't pay that $24.95.

@ 4:06, I guess you didn't read my response the other day. @ 1:39, I see no one has answered you. That's because there has never been a 100% Infection rate. Between Herd Immunity and Herd effect it is impossible.
"Herd immunity applies to immunization or infection, human to human transmitted or otherwise. On the other hand, herd effect applies to immunization or other health interventions which reduce the probability of transmission, confined to infections transmitted human to human, directly or via vector". Source https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/11078115

@4:06 Y'all look the same to me, hard to tell you apart. If people would get a blogger account it would give some accountability.

I've said more than once, the math modeling breaks down at small initial values and at the end. In the middle it's pretty accurate.

I also said tons of times it's important to note the exponential nature. If we wait till it 'looks like it's gettin' bad' before we take this seriously then we are all in for a world of hurt.

And eventually, yes, it will infect every single person on the planet if a vaccine is NOT developed, manufactured, distributed, and administered in time. If you think the tinfoil hat people are complaining NOW, just wait till there's a global vaccine effort.

Italy, which was supposed to have 'peaked', it still picking up new infections. The rate is dropping, but even then they are still passing it around.

This thing has ravaged Italy, is beginning to bash New York, and has moved into Mississippi. Given our state's abysmal record in just abut everything, what makes one think that we will do better than the other areas?

What we need are more doom, and gloom post. More complaining about who did what, and who didn't. Must have more finger pointing, more blame placing. More ignorant comments, about how this political party, or that political party would have, should have, must have, or couldn't have, concerning what ever past event, that cannot be altered, or changed. Someone must use language, to incite, inflame, and cause overall hate, and discontent among the populace. I may as well ask for these things, because that is what I will get. Most of the populace sit around their favorite source of information, like the Greeks that gathered at Mars Hill, in their greatness. There they sit hoping to tell, and learn of some new thing. The more things change, the more they remain the same.

@3:20 Only a fool refuses to change his opinion, mind, position, or actions based on additional/updated data.

Useful links:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

https://mississippitoday.org/2020/03/19/amid-first-reported-death-mississippi-hospitals-brace-for-covid-19-tidal-wave/

Video explaining things (for those that lack good reading skills):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oHg5SJYRHA0

You morons are arguing about the virus as the food supply chain weakens and MBS & Putin “war” over oil (curiously the only victim is US shale).

Keep it up guys. Your checkers playing is first rate.

trump should freeze every nickel of chinese assets deposited in this country in order to pay for all the damage done, the same way jimmy cater froze all iranian assets here when those stinking iranians stormed the american embassy in teheran iran and took all those americans as hostages back in 1980.

7:41 Let me make it more clear for you. 4:06 here. I have 32 years in practice, three board certifications, publications in the New England Journal of Medicine, JAMA, my specialty's journals, as well as full-time faculty appointments at 3 of the top 20 medical schools in the world (including the best).

So, this isn't my first rodeo.

Remember the ebola epidemic that was going to decimate the world? Hell, I was working at MD Anderson when we had an epidemic of patients with this wierd malignancy called Kaposi sarcoma, and HIV didn't have a name yet.

Your fear-mongering is not doing anyone any favors. In fact, it stands a good chance of convincing people this is all a scam to benefit rich doctors/hospitals/politicians/ hell, throw in the Rosicrucians for the real conspiracy believers.

Now, if you'll excuse me, I have to go make rounds.

@10:55. After reading all your bragging (Do you want us to worship your opinion?), I am totally uncertain what you are trying to say. Please do go make rounds. And be certain to ask your residents and medical students to write your next glorious paper.

Do you want us to worship your opinion?

Only BTE's opinion is to be worshiped. As one of Mississippi's forward-looking, intelligent, and cooperative people he's there, ready to illuminate our paths forward. Because you know, we're all in this together. C'mon, jump into the boat with us.