Jackson Jambalaya

So, if we had the hospital beds that they say we need, what would you do with all of them (much less, who would pay for all of them) when you're NOT having a so-called pandemic?

Two big questions for our governor to prepare for when he comes out of isolation. They're not going away.

1. What shape would MS hospitals be in NOW, had Mississippi accepted the billions in Affordable Care Act payments over the years?

2. Will the governor continue to opt out of ACA now?

Does everyone think people will be stricken with pneumonia all at the same time?

Some people are going to have to die. What we need to do is take an hard look at who contributes the most to society and who has been a tax drain from the cradle to the grave.

If you have spent a lifetime collecting government benefits and you have heart disease and diabetes due to your own poor life choices, then you should not take resources from the person who has been a net producer and tax contributor to society.

It isn't racism. It's just reality. We don't need to waste more resources on social dead weight. And we are going to need our best people going forward to reignite the economic engine of America.

I never thought I'd say this, but we need to shut everything down for 14 days like other states / countries are doing. That seems to be the only thing that is working to slow down the virus. If we don't, we all better hope we don't need emergency healthcare, because the hospitals will be overwhelmed.

@12:52 That is exactly why we need to do whatever is necessary to flatten the curve. You can't have 500% excess capacity and still run efficiently during normal times. However, we can try to ensure those patients requiring hospitalization are spread out evenly over a period of time so that the system can ramp up acquisition of equipment and supplies and provide services to everyone that needs it.

The alternative is to be like Italy where nobody over the age of 60 is getting anything but palliative treatment.

These numbers are BS. China had a total of 80,000 cases...and you're telling me the city of Jackson alone will have twice that by randomly saying 20% of the population will get it. Nowhere has that happened. At the same time the certificate of need nonsense that is used to fence off certain hospitals and protect their business needs to end. Immediately.

ICU beds are typically kept full at all times. The availability of empty ICU beds is a horrible metric to use. Did anyone involved in this study actually work in the medical field?

@1:02pm - Dogwhistle for white lives are worth more than black lives.

Instead of allowing the rich to get treatment and denying it to the poor, I feel we should look at people’s contributions of their time to charitable work, noble professions and advancing human knowledge. Doctors, nurses, firefighters, tech workers, scientists, children and educators would be tier 1. Tier 2 would be those who work in factories, service industries, police, armed services, government, etc. tier 3 would include retired people and and those older than 70. Tier 4 would be lawyers, prisoners, bankers, insurance industry, Comcast employees, and everyone else. Charitable work would automatically bump someone 2 tiers. Get it done Moscow Mitch!

I'll expand on my previous comment. Using Jackson as the example with 277 potentially available ICU beds and a need for 7,099 ICU patients due to COVID-19. Most patients won't need ICU for more than a week. They will either improve enough to go to a room or die during that time. If you could spread the 7,099 patients out over a one-year period (52 weeks) that would mean only 136 patients would be in ICU at any one time. Well within the capabilities of the system.

It is worth looking at the entire spreadsheet. It shows the anticipated shortage/excess assuming the spread happens over 6, 12, and 18 months. We have the ability to control it, the question is do we have the fortitude.

Oh yes, Medicaid expansion.

While we are discussing ACA, what about the MILLIONS that ACA required EACH hospital to spend on electronic records keeping software. That is what caused Singing River to stop contributing to the pension fund and made Baptist start losing money.

I agree with @1:02 that it isn't racism. @1:02 will be pleasantly surprised at the high percentages of all races in MS that live off the dole.

Some people at Harvard just want attention. Stay inside as much as possible and we will be "fine (nothing against those impacted)."

Harvard University has an endowment of $41 billion. If Harvard is so concerned about the number of hospital beds in Mississippi, maybe it can donate $1 billion or so tk help the situation.

Where my flubros at

That is the dilemma. A hospital can afford to carry only so many ICU beds. There is no way it can have the ICU capacity for a pandemic.

Btw, Louisiana is up to 1700 cases and 34 deaths. Killed 6 people at a nursing home, including 3 docs. It's now on the loose in another nursing hime.

If you have spent a lifetime buying out other farmers, and collecting Ag subsidies, and CRP, and "crop insurance", and on and on, and killing your liver in the Grove, exactly what good have you done for anyone but yourself?

And, since you are then high risk and not a good candidate for a ventilator, shouldn't YOU be seen as a burden on society?

There are 10s of thousand of more wealthy older Mississippians of both parties collecting Farm Welfare. Go to EWG farm subsidy database. Do William Winter. Barbours and Barksdales probably. For sure Pillows. But MOST have the farm name in an LLC to HIDE the Mississippi Ag Timber Welfare Queens. Etc Do the Holly Bluff farmers who want more GubMint money for pumps.

And get back to us on who "collects a GubMint check," Hoss.

Because a bunch of folks collecting SNAP now or in the past are going to be your home health aide after you get lung damage from COVID, but I'll bet you think they are worthless as they wipe your arse. And you'll bitch if they get 10 bucks an hour.

Let me mention Isaiah : What sorrow for you who buy up house after house and field after field, until everyone is evicted and you live alone in the land. Bet they don't mention that at Broadmoor or 1st Prez, right?

Plagues and pestilence are Old Testament. And so are the warnings about those who hurt others and help themselves, especially the rich in times of trouble, hero.

So this is kinda like building a jetliner large enough to carry ALL ANNUAL passengers between O'Hare & LAX in one trip... once a year? Or a cruise-liner... ?

1:02

Same comparison should be applied to voters. Not saying they shouldn't get a vote - but some (non-vested) should get maybe a 1/2 vote. When those "in the wagon" get to decide what kind of wagon, what options, how fast it's pulled, who provides lunch along their trip... Well, get the picture?

Sorry.

Up to a million cases in Mississippi? If they are so sure about that, why the hell are we all staying home?

I wonder how many Hospital beds we would have if we didn't have to have a Certificate of Need

How in the world do they figure 50% of our population will get infected? That doesn't line up with what's happening elsewhere.

This is grossly irresponsible... much like the WHO predicting over 1 million deaths of malaria in Africa summer 2017. Less than 30k died. In Italy 6k have died... all over age 67 or had preexisting heath issues. It's not political it's science. As a physician you learn the difference quickly no way over 1 million people in Mississippi need to be ventilated or hospitalized. I'm hoping our ortho group can start back doing elective procedures in 3 weeks. Smart money says yes.

What they really need to be looking at is how many people will die of heart attacks, strokes, and suicide due to the stress, anxiety, and high blood pressure caused by crashing the economy and stock market. They need to put that in their damn spread sheet. Those deaths will be directly related to this virus but will never be counted. I don't know, but I bet heart, stroke and suicide deaths will far outpace viral deaths. Taking everything a person has worked for and flushing it down the toilet takes a toll on health. Especially the elderly.

@2:30 because we are still quite early in the entire process, and because of math, something very few in MS are excel at.

The dilemma is simple. Increasing hospital profits by lowering costs means the bean counters ruthlessly eliminate surge capacity. Both in terms of available trained labor and facilities. The warehouses which used to hold medical supplies? Outsource that too in the service of cutting costs.

That's why there is a dilemma. Actually there is no dilemma because there are no decisions to make since no one is paid to push for the other side of the equation.

11 million population in densely populated Wuhan. 50 thousand cases.

3 million population in RURAL Mississippi. 1 million cases.

Harvard predicts 33% infection rate. Using those research dollars well.

Using their numbers (not saying they're accurate) doesn't give anywhere near a million Mississippians needing hospitalization.

2.2 million citizens @ 20% infection rate gives 440,000 infected. 20% of those will be hospitalized (88,000) and 20% of those will need ICU care which gives a total of 17,600 needing ICU care. I hope those estimates are high.

Several posters here appear to have either a masters of edumacation in mathematics or or a masters of edumacation in epidemiology.

@3:27 Check your facts. Approx 50% of MS population is NOT rural.

https://worldpopulationreview.com/states/mississippi-population/

>>>In Italy 6k have died... all over age 67 or had preexisting heath issues. It's not political it's science. As a physician you learn the difference quickly no way over 1 million people in Mississippi need to be ventilated or hospitalized.<<<

Two points:

Are you actually claiming to be an anonymous doctor on the internet, or are you just trying to insinuate that without actually claiming that?

Where's your cite for no-one under 67 dying in Italy unless they had an underlying condition? You do have one don't you? Or was the underlying condition being either male or female?

@ 3:11
As humid weather and heat increase you will see this virus die off. Replication is hard in those climates. Also use of chloroquine and Z Pac has significantly reduced virus in Europe and during H1N1. It's a old anti malaria drug that keeps vivid 19 from replicating and therefore kills it off. We're not at the beginning states here. As for the moron pushing hospital and physician profits... I'm not allowed to do any elective cases. Therefore I'm making no money this month. You people are feeble idiots.

Has Yale released their study ?

Remember in Wuhan the Chinese locked things down completely before it got out of hand. That will never happen in the United States where we see bar hopping and beach combing in massive numbers despite the recommendation to adhere to minimal social distancing protocols. Here in Mississippi the biggest fear is SEC sports getting cancelled.

never get any adverse feedback for making insane high fear causing projections.

You all do realize that we will all die, at least eventually. We have absolutely no control of when, where or how, so why do you focus on it so. Day to day. I also agree with some posters, a million in MS alone when we haven't seen this anywhere else? Sorry, while I recognize a true problem it will not be the end times. Have some faith in whatever you pray to.

1:02 here.
When I said it wasn't a racism I meant it. I have worthless deadbeats in my family. Grown men that sit around playing video games and watching pony cartoons that claim they are disabled.

Never worked a day in their life. The only thing they suffer is an allergy to a hard days work. Their mothers indulged their worthless lazy existence.

What do those Harvard idiots think they are? Geniuses??? Why, I went to an SEC school and majored in Poli Sci!! I'm a very, very stable genius, and folks are AMAZED at how I get this stuff!

@3:59 pm

Yes, the only things Mississippians are REALLY concerned about are football, whiskey, and church on Sunday mornings!!

@3:56, I keep hearing you wannabe doctors repeating this lie about summer milling Covid-19. Please explain to me then why it is spreading in the tropical Philippines, which has only 2 seasons, hot and monsoon?

While we may not know the exact circumstances under which we will meet our demise, we do have a lot of control over avoiding death along the way. Avoiding unnecessarily risky behavior will help, as will maintaining proper health.

In this case we know spreading COVID-19, particularly to people who are at a higher risk of complications, can lead to an unnecessary death.

In other news, I saw where an initial batch of five spring breakers from Tampa have tested positive. They traveled together to party. I bet we will see many, many such cases across America this week and into next.

28% hospitalization rate in Louisiana.

The total adult population in the areas in the report is 1649; 78 . They did not include any numbers for the Memphis area, Greenville, Greenwood area, numbers seem a little high since our total population is around 3,000,000. Also the infection rate seems high based on what has occurred in other countries. As several have stated there is no way to gear up for the number of IC neds they are projecting. I may be one of the casualties but I’m not ready to throw all common a sense aside and liveday to day in sheer panic. But I’m not going to Kroger and walk down the aisle hugging everyone while loading my cart with toilet paper.

Half of Louisiana stayed shit-faced from Christmas until Fat Tuesday.

Gawd knows what was in their system before this happened.

Just another new meaning to the "underlying causes" that we're hearing about.

Has anyone considered the prevalence of pre-existing conditions in Mississippi?

Is there much high blood pressure in Mississippi?

More than 700,000 Mississippi adults have high blood pressure (hypertension), and thousands more may be at risk.

High blood pressure increases a person's risk of heart disease and stroke, two of the leading causes of death in the United States. It can also lead to kidney disease, blindness and mental impairment. High blood pressure can be controlled or prevented entirely by taking the right steps. https://msdh.ms.gov/msdhsite/_static/43,0,297,431.html

Is there much diabetes in Mississippi?

Diabetes is a disease with serious health consequences, but it is also controllable and preventable.

In 2016, Mississippi ranked first in the nation for overall diabetes prevalence, with an estimated 308,295 adult Mississippians living with diabetes (over 13.6% of the adult population).

Diabetes accounted for 1,083 deaths in Mississippi in 2016. In addition, many more Mississippians live with the complications of type 2 diabetes, including lower extremity amputations, end stage renal disease, blindness, loss of protective sensation, heart disease and premature death. https://msdh.ms.gov/msdhsite/_static/43,0,296.html

Is there much COPD in Mississippi?

Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) describes difficulty breathing due to an airflow obstruction in the lungs in persons with emphysema or chronic bronchitis.
About COPD

It is estimated that more than 140,000 Mississippians are currently diagnosed with COPD. However, due to the lack of knowledge about the disease by the people afflicted, it is often an under-diagnosed disease.

According to the American Lung Association of Mississippi (ALAM), COPD is the fourth leading cause of death behind cardiovascular disease, cancers and stroke. It claims the lives of 117,000 Americans annually, and is the only disease in which fatalities continue to increase.

COPD often appears in those who have smoked for many years. Symptoms are usually not noticeable, with the exception of a chronic cough. After age 40, shortness of breath occurs during exertion and continues to worsen over time. This can be mistaken for a normal sign of aging, and is usually dismissed. https://msdh.ms.gov/msdhsite/_static/43,0,295.html

Is there much cardio-vascular disease in Mississippi?


Cardiovascular disease, including heart disease and stroke, is the leading cause of death in Mississippi, accounting for over a third of all deaths in the state. Mississippi's CVD mortality rate remains the highest in the nation. https://msdh.ms.gov/msdhsite/_static/43,0,297.html

How many acute care hospital beds are there in Mississippi?

In 2015 there were 11,060 licensed acute care beds.
(This count excludes Whitfield Medical Surgical Hospital and includes
Mississippi Hospital for Restorative Care, Promise Specialty Hospital
of Vicksburg, Regency Hospital of Hattiesburg, Regency Hospital of
Meridian, Select Specialty Hospital of Gulfport, Select Specialty
Hospital Jackson, Specialty Hospital of Meridian and Long Term Acute
Hospital of Greenwood. https://msdh.ms.gov/msdhsite/_static/resources/6957.pdf

@5:45 The “incubation period” the time between catching the virus and beginning to have symptoms of the disease. Most estimates of the incubation period for COVID-19 range from 1-14 days, most commonly around five days.

Seize the endowments!!!

If beds are needed why not rent out a hotel for a period of time? Heck, in Jackson the Cabot Lodge Millsaps sits across from UMC and has been closed for a while. Put the people who need hospitalization but not the ICU in there and use it to let the recovery happen. I'm sure there are plenty of hotels near hospitals that could be used... we know that there aren't a lot of travelers now...

The Fear Mongers have taken over JJ Kingfish. What a shame.

Wow! 1: 02 pm would be GREAT to serve on one of the “Death Committees” and decide who should live or die!! It’s a tough job but someone has to do it.....,, Jeff

One can not alter their day of death. One can only enhance, or cripple their quality of health along this life's journey. A person's death is an appointment that will not be missed. The debate over the number of hospital beds having an effect on the number of deaths is foolishness to say the least. Some act that survival is assured if the person has been placed under a doctor's care. They die in hospitals every day. Why is it that the ego of some, has blinded them, to the truth, that somethings are beyond their control.

Doctors in this state are not allowed to do routine care right now. I’m not sure who defines “routine.” Consider how many undiagnosed cancer, heart, etc., issues are now undiagnosed. There are risks to this mandate. Are doctors are not being allowed to do routine care or non-emergency surgeries because of mask shortages or because of risk of corona infection, please tell us which it is and what is the reasoning because so far the corona numbers are not staggering. The economy numbers are, however. Something needs to change. We can’t run from this virus forever. It is a choice. Stay home if you’re frightened of the virus. Lock down the nursing homes. But don’t ruin the economy for our kids. I know people who have already lost jobs over this.

The factor which most people aren't aware of that will greatly impact the coming toll: the density of the population.

@9:34 How can you ignore the hard data. Infection rates are increasing @ approx 33% a day in the US and Mississippi. 10-20% of those will require hospitalization and a subset of those will require a ventilator.

If we keep the rate low enough (which we are not currently) we have enough healthcare resources to keep death to about 1.5%. If we let it overwhelm healthcare capacity, which we are, then we can expect death rate of 5%.

Where does it put the US economy to lose 5% of the population? What will our economic opponents do if our GDP drops 5% and theirs does not?

And while this virus _favors_ the elderly it still is fully capable of killing kids, kids that could have survived if the hospitals were not overflowing.

Go look at the data I posted in the other main thread. If the rate does not come down, we can expect a lot of deaths.

If we were going to be invaded by a foreign nation, with death rates to be 5% of the general population would you walk out your front door and tell everyone to ignore it?

Buy as much ammunition tomorrow as you can afford.

@10:04- See @ 10:03. That's density. The population has more than it's fair share. It's kind of like Lake Wobegone. Except much of the population is above the average density.

@1252 - the state's hospital bed situation, and it's overall ability to react to the COVID would be exactly in the same shape as it is now. Expansion of Medicaid under the ACA would have done nothing to change any of the above statistics, except be costing us (taxpayers) more.

I have to agree with 10:07. The window for preparing for the worst (that is yet to come) is rabidly closing. Stores are still open. Prepare for the days when those with nothing more than guns and numbers start getting hungry.

@1:02 speaks for me. Glad I didn't have to type all that. Continue my friends. Great entertainment today.

Blah..blah..blah. Get back to work.

While the entire world is pulling together to help each other, and every TV and Radio ad is about what American Companies are doing to help. You nutters are talking about buying ammo. Get a grip. Volunteer. Help your fellow human. Do what Jesus would do.

Let us surgeons get back to work. Hospitals aren't operating... This is a total waste of time meanwhile we can't have an income with no elective cases. Baptist, St. D merit are you listening. Open up for elective cases. I'm at home in eastover bored. I've been going out of my mind at home. Let's help people and put our nurses and surgeons back to work. Hurry!!!

@ Better than Ever. Haven't you figured out that some people just don't care as long as they think their odds are good. There are some who are thinking a substantial portion of those 65 and up dying is a good thing because it will save on Social Security and Medicare expenditures. Those people are no longer economically productive so it is for the benefit of society to get rid of them. The book/movie "Logan's Run" is a goal, not a warning for them. It all comes down to their own selfish interest.

as soon as i saw the word ''harvard '' in this thread i quit reading it.

I can understand closing the playgrounds in Madison, but it makes no sense to close the walking trails and the parks in general. They are wide open spaces social distancing shouldn't be a problem.

WHO (World Health Organization): GENEVA Reuters The United States has the potential to become the new epicenter of the coronavirus pandemic due to a very large acceleration in infections there, the World Health Organization said on Tuesday

The highly contagious respiratory virus has infected more than 42,000 people in the United States, prompting more governors to join states ordering Americans to stay at home.

Over the past 24 hours, 85 percent of new cases worldwide were from Europe and the United States, WHO spokeswoman Margaret Harris told reporters. Of those, 40 percent were from the United States.

Asked whether the United States could become the new epicenter, she said: “We are now seeing a very large acceleration in cases in the U.S. So it does have that potential. We cannot say that is the case yet but it does have that potential.”

“...They (the United States) have a very large outbreak and an outbreak that is increasing in intensity,” Harris added.

However, she identified some positive signs such as more comprehensive testing, and further efforts to isolate the sick and trace their immediate contacts exposed to the virus.

AMERICA'S RESPONSE? IT DEPENDS WHO YOU ASK! DO YOU ASK REAL DOCTORS OR DOCTOR TRUMP AND HIS RESEARCH ASSISTANT MIDDLE EAST PEACE EXPERT NEWLY MINTED PANDEMIC EXPERT SON IN LAW JARED KUSHNER?

Republican Murrica has already spoken: This medicine tastes bad and some people say you get sick because of little bugs you can't see? I feel fine and we gotta die sometime so hold my beer and watch this!

(Not lost on many is that this is the same logic that they use to "make America great again" by doing away with food safety and pollution control laws and other regulations that save American lives every day. Gotta maximize profits and collect the unregulated political donations. There is not now and never has been a shortage of people that think that seatbelt laws and airbags and regulations that prohibit an open septic drain next to your well get in the way of their freedums.)

It's 9:40 in the morning and nothing from MSDH on numbers from yesterday. They have been reporting on the confirmed cases as of 6:00 p.m. the day before so you know they have them by now.

I've got a bad feeling the increase today is substantial and they are giving little king Reeves a heads up so he can have a response at the ready.

So...the " logic" for some of you would mean that since we get sick and die anyway, it's quite all right to infect others? You have no personal responsibility except to yourself?
Mad Money and 1:02 seems to think that they are capable of deciding who should live and who should die. On 1:02's list would be, at different points in their lives, more than a few of the greatest inventors and scientists and writers and artists known to mankind. Apparently, Herod shared 1:02's attitude.
Yes, there are some things we can't control, but taking personal responsibility not to harm others and our egos are two things we can control.
Some of you think you understand an area of medicine better than those who have spent their lifetimes studying and researching and developing treatments and cures.

@8:50 your bored, why don't you drive down to Louisiana and volunteer, I am sure you can use your general medical skills down there.

Suppose the attempts to slow the spread of virus are weakened or abandoned in an attempt to restart the American economy.

Is there a game plan for getting our economy restarted without international trade? Suppose the government decides to let the Covid-19 run rampant by design in the United States. Knowing that the virus survives up to 17 days on surfaces how will the world treat trade with the US? Quarantine everything coming out of the US for a minimum of 17 days? People? Goods? The airplanes and ships and trucks with which transport all our goods and people across borders?


Have douche-bro/crown prince Jared and Rick 'teaparty founder' Santelli and Dan 'if they get it let god sort them out' Patrick considered any other possible international repercussions for choosing such a medieval course of action?

How long will it take for us to start manufacturing all our drugs here in America if the imports of both drugs and precursor ingredients are cut off? Would countries like China and India do this because we are being run by a crazy stupid suicide cult that has not only made it worse for ourselves but worse for the rest of the world by ignoring the consensus medical advice from the competent experts in the fields of emergency medicine, immunology and pandemic response?

What will other countries do?

On the national level what will governors who don't support this plan do? What will the administration do when state quarantines and border closings go up? Allow? Prohibit?

It is a good thing smart people are in charge and hiring only the best.

Numbers looking stable. Time to wind this thing down.

I'm not sure that MS's healthcare leaders are "thinking outside the box." Every recovery room bed is an ICU bed, every ASC operating room, and idle operating room is an ICU bed with a ventilator and everything else needed. Stopping elective surgeries will free up a number of ICU beds. There are 40 ASC rooms and ventilators available in the Jackson area alone. Women's Hospital, probably Rankin Merit, River Oaks, and Madison have empty ORs with ventilators and recovery room beds. Let's think outside the box, leaders.