Jackson Jambalaya

Remember, y’all go to church on Easter. It’s all a hoax.

What a mess...

Since we've started this, the "system" seems to be keeping up with demand. This should be a sign we can expect normalcy soon.

The chart I find most interesting is the one showing the date of the onset of symptoms. The numbers as far back as March 14 are still growing rapidly. This shows a major delay between symptoms and testing as well as testing and results. There are hundreds, if not thousands, of infected people who will have serious symptoms who have yet to be represented in the official count. Even if social distancing works the numbers are lagging so badly as to make informed analysis meaningless for weeks.

Hopefully the rapid tests using existing diagnostic equipment makes it into distribution quickly. We need to know where the virus is spreading right now if we are to start returning certain parts of society to some semblance of normality. We simply can’t wait three weeks to figure out there is a local outbreak. Widespread and rapid testing is key to reducing statewide lockdowns.

No count on number tested in today's numbers?

Tater Tot and Randolph killing off all their constituents. KEEP IT ALL OPEN.

I say start it up and let the chips fall where they may. Who cares if it goes up or down. It's here.

Can the liberal kooks please stand down for awhile. You make things miserable.

Projected & Actual @ 22% daily rate, revised down from 24%.

Mar…22…sun…252…249…
Mar…23…mon…307…320…
Mar…24…tue…374…377…
Mar…25…wed…456…485…
Mar…26…thu…556…579…
Mar…27…fri…678…663…
Mar…28…sat…827…TBD…
Mar…29…sun…1008…TBD…
Mar…30…mon…1229…TBD…

WLBT today, "The number of presumed positive coronavirus cases in Mississippi is now at 663. The Mississippi State Department of Health confirmed 84 new cases and 5 new deaths Saturday morning. MSDH stated they will no longer be reporting the number of people tested for the coronavirus." Notice they use Presumed instead of confirmed. Oh well, we spoke of this at the Farmers Market then at the garden/fruit store at Old Canton in Ridgeland. No one seemed overly worked up. The Presumed 10,000 by Easter is not a reality using numbers provided. Will be at church, if opened, on Easter. Oh well stay hunkered down and off the road. Driving has been better recently.

LOL at science deniers

Actually 12.

A note on the daily rate going from 24% to 22%. On a 28 day projection, this seemingly small 2% change results in projected infections dropping from 84,000 to 53,000.

Conclusion: Even small changes are worth the trouble. Go to the grocery store every 10 days instead of each week. Use gloves to pump gas. Don't buy ALL the hand sanitizer so that others can have some. Etc.

Better Than Ever missed by 11.2% yesterday but conveniently revises his model to fool the casual reader. This despite his myriad of boasts.

I want them to report active cases rather than the total number of people who have tested positive to date. The active case number is what matters. The way they are reporting numbers is analogous to reporting how much money has been deposited in my bank account in the last month without accounting for the amount I have withdrawn...doesn't give an accurate picture of the current situation.

I have no idea but I wonder if these case numbers are somehow tied to federal aid; hence, the higher the numbers we can show the more $ we get. It would be interesting for a reporter to actually do some journalism and look into how the dollars are distributed to the state. Again, I do not know if numbers are tied to funding but would love to find out. It might tell us a lot.

that top graph is not good news

All of this is horrible enough, but American civilization will be almost totally dismantled by the end of the year if this prediction turns out to be correct. I hope it doesn’t.

Link: https://www.saturdaydownsouth.com/sec-football/coronavirus-covid-19-pandemic-kirk-herbstreit-no-college-football-nfl-season-2020/

@2:35 I don't revise the model. I adjust the coefficient to better line up with available data. Anyone who is not a fool would do the same thing.

I note this clearly at the top of the post(s). I also have a post specifically mentioning it.

I fully expect the transmission rate to decrease as time goes on. I would hope an motivated, educated population would adjust their behavior to preserve life and end this challenge more quickly for us all.

Do you not like facts/science/math/reality? Are your comments directed to educate & motivate in a positive direction?

FYI, the death curve is exponential also. It just lags the infection curve and is not going to reach as high of total numbers.

This is a real thing. Anything you or people you know can do to NOT get infected will help us all.

what was the mar16 count? it's missing from the graph.

I can see where there could still be restrictions on extremely large gatherings like concerts and sporting events if the virus is still active. That will be especially true if the virus shows seasonality and is likely to cause a second wave as the weather changes.

I remain amazed at this particular FACT: In a worksetting where two people have tested positive and both interacted closely with their supervisor and co-workers, why in hell are the remaining co-workers told to stand down and not worry unless symptoms develop. Factual scenario.

Meanwhile, as posted above, if the supervisor of these two people is unknowingly infected and has in the past two weeks infected forty more...what the hell is up with this dynamic, coefficients and exponential rates aside.

Our hesitancy and inability to test is keeping us squarely behind the eight ball.

@Better Than Ever. I appreciate your estimates, but the only issue I have is the coefficient is assumed to be constant going forward when the transmission rate is slowing down. You’ve adjusted down a number of times now. Do you think it might be more relevant to drop the rate by a half a point per day in the model to reflect likely future activity?

@5:48 If I can get a closer 'bead' on it I will. I am looking forward to revising downward as time goes on.

You're only going to get so close anyway. Someone/anonymous complained about it missing by 11%. Heck, most anyone in government would kill to get estimates that are within +/- 11%, especially right now.

The initial week had daily rates all over the place: 300%, 25%, 100%, 20%, 200%, 60%, 50%. A lot of these type things are not great at initial values and ending values. But they do pretty well in the middle.

I think the data clearly shows that it's growing fast and getting faster. whatever measures you and I did yesterday will need to be improved tomorrow.

We just ate the kitchen down to nothing to try and keep from venturing out. With luck we won't need to resupply for ~2 weeks.

My initial numbers were 33% and 50%, and in those days that was as close as you could hope to get. After we had a few more days I was able to move to 24%, which fit the data _very_ closely.

We've had a good couple of days recently so I adjusted to 22%. When infections get high enough labs will be the limiting factor. Initially the state could do 4k a day. Other labs are coming on board, but they don't report data to the state always.

Here comes the spin. We know the agenda.

Now this stupid worldometer reported 18% of CLOSED cases were deaths and people are running around on Facebook saying the death rate is 18%.