No surprises in the run-off elections last week with Michael Guest easily defeating Whit Hughes in the 3rd District Republican Primary run-off and David Baria coming back to defeat upstart Howard Sherman handily in the Senate Democratic Primary run-off.
Unless there are some surprises, Guest should cruise to victory and Baria should fall short in majority Republican Mississippi in November.
Oh, but could there be surprises?
The special election to fill the Senate seat relinquished by Thad Cochran could possibly yield surprises. If Chris McDaniel follows his 2014 blueprint, his challenge to newly appointed Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith will be down and dirty. Will that fight bring out GOP voters or hold down turnout? If polls show either candidate with a substantial lead, the other's voters could stay home. Meanwhile, challenger Mike Espy could attract a surge in Democratic voters. Should these two happen together, surprises could occur.
Don't bet on it, but surprises could happen if one or more Mississippi relevant issues erupt. One of those issues could be tariffs.
Last week newspaper publisher Wyatt Emmerich wrote eloquently about Trump tariffs costing newspaper jobs.
"In January, the Trump administration imposed a 30% import tariff on Canadian wood products, including newsprint," Emmerich wrote. "Prices have risen accordingly, costing my newspaper company $300,000 a year." As a result, Emmerich laid off 60 newspaper carriers and shifted delivery of his three daily newspapers to the U.S. Post Office.
"Fortunately for the survival of my company, we found an option," said Emmerich. "Thanks to a special postal regulation called Exceptional Dispatch, we will be able to use the U.S. Postal Service to get same day delivery of our three daily newspapers, saving a substantial amount of money and allowing us to leave our editorial staff intact."
Other newspapers have had to cut editorial staff along with other personnel, he said.
One editorial staff member recently laid off was long-time political reporter Bobby Harrison. Now writing for Mississippi Today, Harrison penned a story last week on the impact of Trump tariffs on agriculture in Mississippi, particularly soybeans.
"Earlier this month, the President announced $50 billion in tariffs on China," Harrison wrote. "China responded with similar tariffs, primarily on agriculture products. One of the primary agriculture products impacted by Chinese tariffs is soybeans, which is Mississippi's top exported product."
"Any trade war between the United States and China will hit hard Mississippi farmer and the Mississippi economy," he wrote after interviewing North Mississippi farmer Jerry Slocum.
In addition to farmers, Mississippi manufacturers are concerned about tariffs too. The Northeast Mississippi Daily Journal reported two major state manufacturing companies have spoken out against tariffs.
Cooper Tire joined with its industry association to vigorously oppose "the imposition of restrictions on our industry’s ability to import the high-quality steel wire rod needed to make tires in the U.S., as this vital tire component is not produced domestically."
Toyota Mississippi said, "The administration’s decision to impose substantial steel and aluminum tariffs will adversely impact automakers."
As tariffs spread to impact jobs and income in Mississippi, voters will likely take heed.
The potential for November election surprises is there. We'll have to wait and watch to see if that potential is realized.
Crawford (crawfolk@gmail.com) is a syndicated columnist from Meridian.
Sunday, July 1, 2018
Bill Crawford: Will Tariffs & Special Election Cause November Surprise?
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18 comments:
Mississippians remember how NAFTA decimated this state. Besides, the Democrat platform appears to consist of impeach Trump, open borders and hatrassment of conservatives. Mississippians will not elect a Democrat Senator.
It's not the role of government or the rest of us to keep the newspaper in business or its carriers employed. That's about equal to the argument that we should all continue shopping and dining in Jackson in order to keep the businesses there alive.
I do, though, understand that liberal concept...just as with democrat county supervisors who think the county runs an employment agency - cost savings to the taxpayer be-damned.
Soybeans are at a 9 year low all because of Trump's B.S., can we get someone who doesn't bite the hand that feeds you.
Whether you like his policies or not, Trump is and will always be a New York yankee blow hard. It is difficult for a Southerner to fully support anything about him. But still much better than anybody named Clinton... ;))
12:32 I understand you plight. I also see farmers driving six figure pieces of machinery that you have to pay for. You can deride me all you want now. I am on auto steer and in a cold environment myself.
12:32 - Were you around in 77 when a famous Democrat embargoed rice to the Middle East and decimated related businesses in the Mississippi and Arkansas Delta? Or were you still in indoctrination training?
As much as I hate to see Mississippi farmers suffer, it's not the role of a president to protect one industry at the expense of another. We need to reach an overall balance with trade, spreading it among all industries. That may be why it's called 'balance'.
Besides, pal, farmers won't go broke. The gubment has always subsidized them in hard times.
11:31am, I believe you are right in saying”Mississippians will not elect a Democrat Senator”, more especially the female one that Phil appointed. Oh! But she has changed parties after voting for Obama twice. Yeah! Right!
It's not just the soybeans, Nissan has a glut of cars to sell already and higher steel prices are not good for a stuggling company.
Just wait until November is what Trump says now on NAFTA, just exactly what I taught, the Democrats are going to be in charge and he is going to give the socialist progressive Democrats just what they want.
Down deep Red Mississippians hate:
Abortion
Gays
And civil rights which helped blacks
Soybeans could become worthless and Nissans could cost $250,000 each and died in the wool Rs in MS will never vote for a Democrat.
Odd too because lots have gay uncles. Lesbian aunts, black girlfriends....some even had abortions.
But...they’d never acknowledge any of it......ignorance is too easy.
I cant figger sum of yall--for the last 50+ years the US has been on a highway to hell courtesy the GREAT SOCIETY-LBJ and Democrats/media/Hollywood and socialist sycophants !! NOW we have a guy w common sense who is trying to right sum of these wrongs and the SECOND ur ox gets gored u scream to high heaven--c'mon guys we're ALL gonna share in the pain for the long term gain--all this trade hysteria is just posturing and will all work out MUCH better than u think!!
4:27 pm
That’s right!
We should give him all the power to do whatever he wants....better than murderous Hillary killing our kids.
I say we abolish the courts and make trump king.
4:13
Down deep Red Mississippians do hate abortion.
Hate the sin of the gays, not the sinner.
And, fought for the rights of blacks while the Mississippi Democrat Party did anything and everything they could to keep the Black people down and in their pocket.
Bless your heart, you need to learn some history, Son.
Oh, y’all just wait until those tariffs affect revenues and quarterly earnings in addition to rate hikes in the stock market. Money talks and bullsh*t walks. When Annabelle can’t get the the new iPhone or Samsung because it costs $2,000.00 sh*t will get real, real fast.
And little Annabelle will remember this moment and forever hate the Republican Party. Little Annabelle will secretly vote for a democrat when she grows up. That’s what little Annabelle will do. Annabelle has an army she’s bringing with her called her generation.
@ 9:23am
"And, fought for the rights of blacks while the Mississippi Democrat Party did anything and everything they could to keep the Black people down and in their pocket........Bless your heart, you need to learn some history, Son."
Perhaps you need to do a little more research yourself. You do know that the only reason why blacks joined the Democratic Party, because of the MSDEM controlling the legislature. When blacks started joining the party, the very same Dixiecrats high-tailed it over to the Mississippi GOP - voted overwhelmingly for Goldwater opposed to Johnson (a Democrat) passing the civil rights bill.
The Dixiecrat platform of 1964, is no different than the Republican platform of 2018.
So trying to sell the current Democratic party as the Dixiecrat party prior to the civil rights movement is a false narrative and completely naive.
If you really want to understand current economic policy, you have to read the economist whose theory is influencing it, the late James McGill Buchanan.
His theory began to have influence and the University of Chicago and the University of Virginia. He became a Nobel laureate because of his influence on the economic policies of Thatcher, in particular.
He's dead, but his economic disciples continue to influence policy primarily because those we elect don't understand economics .
The delta:
Where "rich" welfare divide themselves via railroad tracks from "poor" welfare.
To the failed philosopher @ 5:17....every Mississippi town that saw the Iron Horse was at one time divided by a railroad track as class determinant.
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