Wednesday, July 25, 2018

Sid Salter: Recent McDaniel FEC Report About Far More than Low Fundraising Numbers

The Federal Elections Commission second quarter campaign finance reports are in and for State Sen. Chris McDaniel, the reports are everything he’s been telling us they would be in his steady drumbeat of fundraising emails called the “Remember Mississippi Moneybomb.”

 Since March, McDaniel has used this email device to raise campaign money from his supporters. The announced goal of the “Moneybomb” gambit was $100,000. But despite the hyperbole about the McDaniel campaign representing a national “movement” and claims that “I’m the establishment’s #1 enemy” – McDaniel’s fundraising effort in the 2018 campaign has not performed remotely as well as it did in his 2014 campaign against former Republican U.S. Sen. Thad Cochran.

McDaniel lost the Republican second primary to Cochran in 2014 by a 51 to 49 percent margin. What made that race compelling in 2014 was the campaign finance angle as the longtime GOP incumbent Cochran faced the challenge of the Pine Belt legislator McDaniel making his first statewide race.

Four years later, McDaniel of Ellisville is one of four candidates in the 2018 Class II U.S. Senate special election being contested for a partial term to succeed Cochran that will end in 2021. The nonpartisan special election will be held Nov. 6.

Mississippi’s interim Class II U.S. senator is Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith of Brookhaven, appointed by Gov. Phil Bryant to fill Cochran’s unexpired term after Cochran stepped down from the post in April citing persistent health problems.

Challenging Hyde-Smith in the nonpartisan special election for the right to succeed Cochran is former municipal candidate Tobey Bartee of Gautier, former Democratic U.S. secretary of agriculture and congressman Mike Espy of Madison and McDaniel.

The most recent 2018 FEC quarterly campaign finance reports from the candidates in this race are pretty straightforward. To make the stretch run to November, Hyde-Smith has $1.39 million cash on hand while Espy has some $281,000 cash on hand (including a $111,000 personal loan he made to the campaign).

McDaniel trails Hyde-Smith and Espy with some $156,000 cash on hand (including a $55,000 personal loan he made to the campaign), while Bartee had no FEC filings listed.

What a difference four years makes for the McDaniel campaign. In the 2014 GOP primary with Cochran, McDaniel raised $3.24 million in traditional campaign contributions and attracted another $5.7 million from outside groups either supporting ($3.56 million) or opposing ($2.17 million) his campaign for a total spend of some $8.94 million. In the same race, Cochran drew $7.86 million in traditional campaign contributions and some $6.21 million from outside groups either supporting ($2.43 million) or opposing ($3.78 million) his re-election.

All in all, the 2014 Mississippi Senate race saw the expenditure of a total of some $23 million – about $11 million in traditional campaign finance and nearly $12 million in outside spending, mostly by political action committees and so-called Super PACs.

McDaniel correctly forecast that his campaign would take some lumps in the media and among the politicos for his relatively anemic campaign finance numbers in the most recent FEC reports. But those numbers really don’t tell the tale.

In 2014, McDaniel was the political darling of conservative groups like Club for Growth and Freedom Works, groups that by themselves put up $2.53 million in Super PAC spending opposing Cochran and $1.12 million supporting McDaniel.

The campaign finance story in the current race is that while McDaniel’s camp has struggled to raise traditional campaign funds, the conservative PAC and Super PAC groups that embraced him in 2014 against Cochran have by and large ignored his campaign in 2018.

Sid Salter is a syndicated columnist. Contact him at sidsalter@sidsalter.com.

29 comments:

Anonymous said...

Maybe after this election we will not have to look at or listen to McDaniel any more. He certainly does not present the image I want people to have of my home state (in my opinion).

Anonymous said...

How can this be? He's gonna support our state flag! That should be bringing in mountains of donations!

Anonymous said...

I'm shocked that constantly reminding people how you lost 2 elections ("remember Mississippi") would not resonate well with. Just shocked.

Anonymous said...

McDaniel should look into civil war reenactment as a profession. He's got the losing part down pat.

Anonymous said...

The fact that $23M was spent on a campaign in a state as poor as Mississippi should tell you something about how broken our current political system is. We need to convince these PACs that, in lieu of campaign contributions, they should donate their $1M to an infrastructure project or rural healthcare or job training programs in our state, in the name of the candidate they support. What's the dollar value of the free media one would get from directing campaign contributions towards building playgrounds across the state? Who wouldn't vote for a candidate that proved they weren't all talk by improving things in Mississippi even before they were elected? The current system is just a game the wealthy are playing against the stupid. We non-billionaires need to stop arguing about race and religion and D vs. R and Ole Miss vs. State and start focusing on getting something in return for the votes we cast.

Anonymous said...

I will likely cast my vote for NOTA. None Of The Above. Cindy Hyde Smith is a dunce. McDaniel is an asshat. Espy is a socialist. Bartee is a joke.

Roger Wicker plus one of those four equals the assurance of last place among the states.

Anonymous said...

@ July 25, 2018 at 9:53 AM

"I will likely cast my vote for NOTA. None Of The Above. Cindy Hyde Smith is a dunce. McDaniel is an asshat. Espy is a socialist. Bartee is a joke."

Please tell us how Espy is a socialist? More empty rhetoric from the cult followers of the Mississippi GOP!?

Anonymous said...

HYde-Smith wins easily. GOP goes to 54-46 in Senate. Dems may get House though, but that will be it.

Anonymous said...

McDaniel is the sleeping giant in this race. Money doesn't matter to his supporters. Of course he's getting fewer contributions. He can't be bought.
#Remember Mississippi!
#Fight Chris Fight!

Anonymous said...

10:26, I agree. Don't know how socialist applies to Espy. Crooked, criminal politician is a better description

Anonymous said...

If Mississippians want to be able to have a voice in the majority the choice is clear.
One only need look at the elections Nationwide and see that Democrats are voting in greater numbers than Republicans, (most Republicans are embarrassed by what is going on and just refuse to vote).Sure it's not likely that either Democrat has a chance in the Senate here, but don't be surprised if Chuck S. Is running the Senate come January. Bennie will be chairman of what ever committee he wants that for sure. Most folks figure the Republicans will lose 32 to 36 seats.

Anonymous said...

@ July 25, 2018 at 11:07 AM

"10:26, I agree. Don't know how socialist applies to Espy. Crooked, criminal politician is a better description"

And that's a fair assessment because he did get caught with his hand in the cookie jar while working for the Clinton administration. I can't argue with you there. But, let's call balls and strikes and stop using the bullsh*t labels used by the Mississippi GOP.

Anonymous said...

"McDaniel correctly forecast that his campaign would take some lumps in the media and among the politicos for his relatively anemic campaign finance numbers"

You'd think if he can correctly predict something so obvious, he could correctly predict that he is going to get beaten like a rented mule. He'll probably still get a relative few bucks from the usual suspects, commensurate with his chances of winning and just in case the other three decide to concede the race prior to election. McDaniel has several problems (well, he has LOTS of problems) that may not be apparent to the casual observer:

1) The Donald pretty much used up all the "well, yeah, he is that, but at least..." oxygen,

2) The Mercers, Kochs, et al, aren't interested in betting good money after already-pissed-away money on a fleabag with three broken legs, at least no more than a token "just in case" amount - think $2 exacta on the longest two at the Derby. McDaniel in MS is not Trump in "middle America" - the Donald was a darkish horse, McDaniel is beaten, dead and buried jackass,

3) No amount of spending, even irrational spending, can overcome McDaniel's deep unpopularity with a large swath of voters. He has managed to upset, even really piss off, both far-left black voters and far-right good old whiteboy business-clubbers, and that's on top of the large number of "just normal folks" who think he is a batshit crazy lunatic. Again, refer to the math on Trump v. that on McDaniel. In simple terms, several states, CA, NY, MS, AL, etc., weren't in play. In the states in play, generally, the GOP POTUS nom was going to get 40ish% of the vote, the Dem about the same, regardless of the names. Another 10% or so was almost certain to drop 50-50 for each, so about 5.01% was the real battleground (and it was EC, not popular vote - it didn't require winning EVERY in-play state). All it took was convincing a relative few voters to cast a "well, yeah, but he can't be any WORSE, right?" vote. Here, it's popular vote and Cindy Lou Who and Mike "I am SO not a crook" Espy are going to split at least 70%, so lessee, carry the naught times pi over the hypotenuse squared by the cosine of the divisor, oops, the tangent of the numerator, and yep, not even the most nonsensical math leaves enough voters, no matter how thick and expensive the BS. Trust me, the Mercers, Kochs, etc. are using computers, not JPS math teachers, to handle the risk-reward calculus. Even a rough back-of-the-envelope produces "McDaniel is 00...and you're playing blackjack."

Anonymous said...

He’s a giant something all right

Anonymous said...

Wicker has my vote in that race.
But I'm a Republican for Espy in the special election!

Anonymous said...

So, we have a crook, a hyphenated last name who was a democrat up until two years into the Obama administration and who lied about having the support of Trump and Pence, and Chris McDaniel who the establishment uniparty does not want. Pretty easy math.

Anonymous said...

So, we have (1) a crook, (2) a hyphenated last name who was a democrat up until two years into the Obama administration and who lied about having the support of Trump & Pence and who now uses our state flag for a prop, and (3) Chris McDaniel who the establishment uniparty does not want. Pretty easy math.

Anonymous said...

We are screwed as a state, as this crowd (incumbents included) are a bunch of lightweights. There isn't an ounce of backbone or statesmanship between them all.

Anonymous said...

10:48 AM Trump and his family will be indicted before the election. Dems will get to 50 in the Senate maybe 51 and will have about a 10 seat margin in the House.

Anonymous said...

4:26 wrote:

"So, we have (1) a crook, (2) a hyphenated last name who was a democrat up until two years into the Obama administration and who lied about having the support of Trump & Pence and who now uses our state flag for a prop, and (3) Chris McDaniel who the establishment uniparty does not want. Pretty easy math."

Let me fix it for you:

"So, we have (1) a nationally-known black guy (who will get somewhere north of 142% of the black vote and the votes of all 14 white MS Dems even if someone produces a video of him literally stealing candy from a baby), (2) A white gal appointed by Phil Bryant who has the support of the MSGOP (whatever else is said, it'll go in one ear and out the other for the large majority of white MS voters - she ain't black and she ain't Chris McWackadoodle, close enough fer gub'mit work), and (3) Chris McDaniel who the establishment uniparty hates from the depths its loins (and the sane, rational voters aren't too keen on him, either). Pretty easy math: McDaniel gets beaten like a Trump pinata at Maxine Waters' Cinco de Mayo party."

Hey, you were THIS close, it just needed a little fine-tuning. You were deadnut on with the "easy math" part!

Anonymous said...

We need McDaniel! He’s the only one who tells it like it is!!!

Anonymous said...

So Democrat (Republican in Name Only) Cindy Hyde-your-true-colors-Smith is getting millions from Hillary Clinton Supporters in Kalifawnia... Once again Sid spends hundreds of words to cover something everyone already knows... And gets paid by the swamp to keep the water churned up... :)

Anonymous said...

Once again Sid writes eloquently while saying nothing that the rest of us don’t already know: Macdaniel is a nonentity in this election. Seriously, the analysis is so shallow and provides nothing in the way of new or interesting information. Save your precious money KF. Dump Sid.

Anonymous said...

Doesn’t CD have around 900k in PAC money?

Anonymous said...

I'm a lifelong Republican voter and contributor. If (longshot) McDaniel advances to the runoff vs. Espy- I'll not only vote for Espy, but I'll volunteer my money and time.

Anonymous said...

If Espy gets anywhere close to holding any political office again, I will send money, volunteer time, and do anything I can to keep a Clintonian Criminal out of government power and office...

Anonymous said...

So, now CH-S claims McDaniel has a bad business rating. And you know why? Because he doesn't support open borders and amnesty like the US Chamber of Commerce does. And the chamber is supporting CH-S, so you know she, like Snakes McCain, Weasel Ryan, Bitch McConnell and Little Marco Rubio, will support that. Don't be fooled by another RINO.

Anonymous said...

Wicker is a Trump apologist. Cindy Hyde-Smith is an intellectual lightweight. Surely we can do better.

Anonymous said...

If anything, McDaniel is the sleeping midget. His fundraising and poll numbers are anemic. Most of his influential supporters of 2014 have left the ship. He will run a distant 3rd and move back to his radio roots.

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Trollfest '09

Trollfest '07 was such a success that Jackson Jambalaya will once again host Trollfest '09. Catch this great event which will leave NE Jackson & Fondren in flames. Othor Cain and his band, The Black Power Structure headline the night while Sonjay Poontang returns for an encore performance. Former Frank Melton bodyguard Marcus Wright makes his premier appearance at Trollfest singing "I'm a Sweet Transvestite" from "The Rocky Horror Picture Show." Kamikaze will sing his new hit, “How I sold out to da Man.” Robbie Bell again performs: “Mamas, don't let your babies grow up to be Bells” and “Any friend of Ed Peters is a friend of mine”. After the show, Ms. Bell will autograph copies of her mug shot photos. In a salute to “Dancing with the Stars”, Ms. Bell and Hinds County District Attorney Robert Smith will dance the Wango Tango.

Wrestling returns, except this time it will be a Battle Royal with Othor Cain, Ben Allen, Kim Wade, Haley Fisackerly, Alan Lange, and “Big Cat” Donna Ladd all in the ring at the same time. The Battle Royal will be in a steel cage, no time limit, no referee, and the losers must leave town. Marshand Crisler will be the honorary referee (as it gives him a title without actually having to do anything).


Meet KIM Waaaaaade at the Entergy Tent. For five pesos, Kim will sell you a chance to win a deed to a crack house on Ridgeway Street stuffed in the Howard Industries pinata. Don't worry if the pinata is beaten to shreds, as Mr. Wade has Jose, Emmanuel, and Carlos, all illegal immigrants, available as replacements for the it. Upon leaving the Entergy tent, fig leaves will be available in case Entergy literally takes everything you have as part of its Trollfest ticket price adjustment charge.

Donna Ladd of The Jackson Free Press will give several classes on learning how to write. Smearing, writing without factchecking, and reporting only one side of a story will be covered. A donation to pay their taxes will be accepted and she will be signing copies of their former federal tax liens. Ms. Ladd will give a dramatic reading of her two award-winning essays (They received The Jackson Free Press "Best Of" awards.) "Why everything is always about me" and "Why I cover murders better than anyone else in Jackson".

In the spirit of helping those who are less fortunate, Trollfest '09 adopts a cause for which a portion of the proceeds and donations will be donated: Keeping Frank Melton in his home. The “Keep Frank Melton From Being Homeless” booth will sell chances for five dollars to pin the tail on the jackass. John Reeves has graciously volunteered to be the jackass for this honorable excursion into saving Frank's ass. What's an ass between two friends after all? If Mr. Reeves is unable to um, perform, Speaker Billy McCoy has also volunteered as when the word “jackass” was mentioned he immediately ran as fast as he could to sign up.


In order to help clean up the legal profession, Adam Kilgore of the Mississippi Bar will be giving away free, round-trip plane tickets to the North Pole where they keep their bar complaint forms (which are NOT available online). If you don't want to go to the North Pole, you can enjoy Brant Brantley's (of the Mississippi Commission on Judicial Performance) free guided tours of the quicksand field over by High Street where all complaints against judges disappear. If for some reason you are unable to control yourself, never fear; Judge Houston Patton will operate his jail where no lawyers are needed or allowed as you just sit there for minutes... hours.... months...years until he decides he is tired of you sitting in his jail. Do not think Judge Patton is a bad judge however as he plans to serve free Mad Dog 20/20 to all inmates.

Trollfest '09 is a pet-friendly event as well. Feel free to bring your dog with you and do not worry if your pet gets hungry, as employees of the Jackson Zoo will be on hand to provide some of their animals as food when it gets to be feeding time for your little loved one.

Relax at the Fox News Tent. Since there are only three blonde reporters in Jackson (being blonde is a requirement for working at Fox News), Megan and Kathryn from WAPT and Wendy from WLBT will be on loan to Fox. To gain admittance to the VIP section, bring either your Republican Party ID card or a Rebel Flag. Bringing both and a torn-up Obama yard sign will entitle you to free drinks served by Megan, Wendy, and Kathryn. Get your tickets now. Since this is an event for trolls, no ID is required. Just bring the hate. Bring the family, Trollfest '09 is for EVERYONE!!!

This is definitely a Beaver production.


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There will be a hugging booth where in exchange for your young son, Frank Melton will give you a loooong hug. Trollfest will have a dunking booth where Muhammed the terrorist will curse you to Allah as you try to hit a target that will drop him into a vat of pig grease. However, in the true spirit of Separate But Equal, Don Imus and someone from NE Jackson will also sit in the dunking booth for an equal amount of time. Tom Head will give a reading for two hours on why he can't figure out who the hell he is. Cliff Cargill will give lessons with his .80 caliber desert eagle, using Frank Melton photos as targets. Tackleberry will be on hand for an autograph session. KIM Waaaaaade will be passing out free titles and deeds to crackhouses formerly owned by The Wood Street Players.

If you get tired come relax at the Fox News Tent. To gain admittance to the VIP section, bring either your Republican Party ID card or a Rebel Flag. Bringing both will entitle you to free drinks.Get your tickets now. Since this is an event for trolls, no ID is required, just bring the hate. Bring the family, Trollfest '07 is for EVERYONE!!!

This is definitely a Beaver production.

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