Tuesday, April 3, 2018

Espy leads Senate poll

Former Congressman Mike Espy leads Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith and State Senator Chris McDaniel in a poll commissioned by Chism Strategies, a known Democratic outfit.  The poll states that Mr. Espy leads with 34% of the vote while Senator Hyde-Smith garnered 27% and State Senator McDaniel had 21%.  The poll of general election voters was conducted in March.   The crosstabs are posted below as well.
The memo states that the January survey polled Democratic voters for Mr. Espy's name ID.  The sample size was 878 voters.  73% of the sample were blacks and 40% had cellphones.

The March survey had a sample size of 603 general election voters.  The sample size was 35% black and 36% had cellphones. 







30 comments:

Anonymous said...

There will be some interesting poll numbers when they add Jason Shelton and possibly Andy Taggart and Jamie Franks and possibly even some others in both parties.

Anonymous said...

This carries as much credence as Kim Jong Ung conducting a poll on who the citizens of North Korea support.

Anonymous said...

Almost an equal 1:1 ratio of black to cellphone ownership. What does that mean?

Anonymous said...

I say go for Espy! Then, the real Tea Party George Washington will emerge!

Anonymous said...

I finally successfully blocked this polling organization after they had called my land line every day, twice, for over a week. Polls are invaluable - for fools.

Anonymous said...

Anyone but McDaniel!

Anonymous said...

And this from the “experts” who said Hillary had a 100% chance of winning based on their polls

Anonymous said...

Espy will make an excellent Senator for everyone. More moderate than not. And a nice guy. If McNuts gets the nomination get ready for Espy to come in by a hefty margin. Volunteers will come from everywhere to stop Chrissy.

Anonymous said...

ANYBODY BUT MCDANIEL!!!!!

Anonymous said...

Is this from one of the poll-y folk that had Hillary with a 90-some-odd percent dead certainty on becoming president?

Anonymous said...

Espy only @ 34% on a Donkey homer Chism poll? That is bad news for Espy.

Anonymous said...

Clinton won the popular vote and polling is about voting, not about electoral votes and there is always a stated error rate.

The media gives polls too much attention and/or misunderstands the value at any given point in time.

Polls are more useful to the candidate in terms of how to effectively campaign than in whether or not , on any given Tuesday, gerrymandering or last minute smears succeeded or if the weather affected turnout.


Anonymous said...

Espy has many things going for him:

1. Tons of money filtered from the Canton Municipal Utilities war chest.
2. Rudy Warnock can be his friend, mentor, campaign finance chairman, pastor, psychic, and all around assistant.
3. He used to be with Morgan and Morgan. We know for a fact that they are "For The People". It is not true that they are "For the Money".

Anonymous said...

The alignment of this document is awful! How they center the title and then the subtitle and then the title of the chart....three different points of reference here.

Anonymous said...

Africans Americans squander their political capital by voting as a monolithic bloc.

Anonymous said...

@ 8:27am

"Africans Americans squander their political capital by voting as a monolithic bloc."

I hope you hope you hold the white Anglo-Saxon protestant monolithic bloc to the same level of accountability that you are holding the black bloc to; considering that the Mississippi GOP is 98.9% lily white and ALL of the Republicans that are elected, or were appointed, to statewide office and the Mississippi legislature are white as well.

That dog hunts both ways buddy

Anonymous said...

You don't get statistics do you 9:49?

Whites in Mississippi do not vote as a 98.9% monolithic bloc.

Brad Chism is saying historical observation predicts that 95% of blacks will and because whites do not that Mike Espy has a chance.

I seriously doubt your hunting dogs are very effective.

Anonymous said...


11:43,

Never, never, never talk about a man's dog or his mistress---you stepped way over the line with the dog comment !!!!!!

VOTE FOR ESPY !!!!!!!!

Anonymous said...

@ 11:43am

"Whites in Mississippi do not vote as a 98.9% monolithic bloc...........................Brad Chism is saying historical observation predicts that 95% of blacks will and because whites do not that Mike Espy has a chance.

That should have stated because 20% - 25% of white Republicans swinging their vote towards the Democrat this election, Mike Espy will have a chance.

Mississippi politics are clearly divided along racial lines. Deny all you want but the white Republican supermajority in our state politics is because 90% of whites in Mississippi vote Republican.

To single blacks out for race-based voting in Mississippi is naive at best.

Anonymous said...

7:24 - you need to go back and finish your PolySci 101 course.

Yes, polling is about popular vote.
Yes, Clinton won the popular vote.

Fact, polling is done state by state to determine Presidential predictions.
Fact, Clinton's popular vote margin was due largely to CA and NY. Large margins there don't change the number of Electoral votes those states cast.

Truth. Trump's majority in several states was within the Margin of Error, meaning that the polling in those states was not particularly wrong. That they predicted Clinton winning but Trump prevailed, was not the fault of their polling.

Now, the real truth. Chism's polling is generally very close to being right in Mississippi - WHEN you look at the final poll he takes the weekend before the election. All his other polls, even those like this one that were done for a candidate and not for his general dissemination, tend to be all across the waterfront.

Anonymous said...

Mississippi politics are clearly divided along racial lines. Deny all you want but the white Republican supermajority in our state politics is because 90% of whites in Mississippi vote Republican.

You're wrong and not smart enough to realize it.

Anonymous said...


Ironic that Brad Chism never publishes anything for public consumption about his negative push polling efforts.

Anonymous said...

To 11:43,
Commenter 9:49 clearly stated “white Anglo-Saxon Protestants”, not “whites”. Try reading...

Anonymous said...

Rumor around Rankin County is claiming the Governor’s good buddy, Charles Porter is going to run. Anyone heard this?

Kingfish said...

Heard that rumor a week ago. It's pretty amusing.

Anonymous said...

Is it really being argued here that blacks do not typically bloc-vote? Really? As long as our ballots reflect 'R' and 'D', that will be the case in Mississippi.

And, yes, Kingfish; the term 'lily white' is racist, but you always allow it. On the other hand, why is 'slate black' or 'pitch black' considered pejorative?

Anonymous said...

Is Democrat Mike Espy Leading in the Mississippi Senate Race? A deep dive on a new internal poll shows better signs for the GOP.

On Tuesday, Mississippi Democratic Senate candidate Mike Espy's campaign released an internal poll showing him in the lead in Mississippi's upcoming Senate election. The headline might sound like good news for Democrats—every candidate obviously prefers to be ahead, and Mississippi is extremely red. But if you dig beneath the toplines, you'll see that this poll isn't a clear signal that Espy is doing well.
.....
Second, the toplines aren't that great for Espy. The poll gives him about a third of the vote (34 percent) ...
.....
That's not a great percentage of the vote for Espy.
.....
But this poll isn't the canary in the coal mine that many are watching for.

Anonymous said...


"I CALL BULL SHIT" to every word that was written on this page!!!!

Anonymous said...

The thread posted by Kingfish about a women's group endorsing Doty....Is there a reason comments are not allowed? Is that a paid political announcement which doesn't make that claim? Or is it just a teaser to which he doesn't want to allow comments? Regardless of the answer, it's an insult to our intelligence. Either allow comments or state a reason for blocking them.

Kingfish said...

Why don't you read the post? There is a notice at the bottom in BIG YUGE LETTERS IN RED that state it is a paid advertisement. No comments are allowed on ads unless the sponsor specifically directs they be allowed.



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