Sunday, April 22, 2018

Bill Crawford: Handicapping the 3rd District Race

June 5th primaries to begin choosing who will fill the 3rd District congressional seat abandoned by Rep. Gregg Harper are six weeks away. Six candidates are seeking the Republican nomination, two the Democratic nomination.
 With no other significant races on the June ballots, turnout will be the key factor. That means get-out-the-vote (GOTV) activities will be critical. While free social media plays an ever-rowing role, identifying supportive voters and getting them to the polls remain money-sensitive campaign functions.
 
We got our first good look at the key money factors last week.
 
Contributions show how well candidates have penetrated political givers, often key influence leaders.
 
Whit Hughes led all Republican candidates in contributions with $304,354, followed by Michael Guest with $280,911, Perry Parker with $102,032, Sally Doty with $65,059, Morgan Dunn with $30,600, and Katherine Tate with none. Democrats Michael Aycox of Newton reported $100 and Michael Evans reported none.
 
Cash on hand shows how much campaigns can spend on advertising and GOTV. 
 
 
 Parker had the most cash on hand with $272,533 after personally loaning his campaign $240,000. Guest was next with $216,213, then Hughes with $206,451, Dunn with $103,073 after personally lending her campaign $73,100, and Doty with $53,819. No others reported any cash on hand.
 
Next to money the best thing to have for GOTV is a proven base. Three candidates are elected officials with proven bases. Guest is the district attorney for Rankin and Madison Counties, the dominant Republican stronghold in the district. Doty is a state senator for Lincoln, Lawrence, and parts of Copiah and Walthall Counties. Evans is a state representative for parts of Kemper, Lauderdale, Neshoba and Winston counties.
 
Of course, there are non-political bases too. Hughes served as Deputy Director of the Mississippi Development Authority where he worked with economic developers throughout the district and is popular athlete from Mississippi State basketball days. Aycox is a Navy veteran and cancer survivor. Tate is a former teacher with connections to the education community. Dunn is a healthcare consultant with connections to the healthcare community. Parker has connections to the banking community.
 
Given the above, politicos generally agree that Guest should lead the GOP ticket in the first primary, but say a runoff is likely. To get into the runoff one of the others will have to catch on with voters.
 
At a forum last week, all six Republicans towed the conservative line. With little issue differentiation to guide them, voters will have to pick favorites based somewhat on their resumes but mostly on the impressions they make. This latter factor is also usually a money-sensitive function.
 
Money importance suggests Hughes and Parker will vie for a runoff spot with Guest. But, having three women in this GOP primary could upset conventional prognosticating.
 
With candidates having no money it's hard to predict a Democratic primary winner. Turnout will be key.
 
Republican turnout is likely to be mixed with Rankin and Madison Counties dominating, followed by Lauderdale, Lincoln, Simpson, Neshoba, Newton, Scott, and Smith. Counties to watch in the Democratic primary include Rankin, Lauderdale, Pike, Adams, Copiah, and Madison.
 
Time for this race to get exciting, if it is.
 
Crawford (crawfolk@gmail.com) is a syndicated columnist from Meridian.
 

32 comments:

Anonymous said...

That was about as weak and boring write up of a political race I have read lately. Basically it was just lazy in effort. Zzzzzzz

Anonymous said...

Let's try to help Crawford out. This article would have been more interesting if he would have included more detail. Who are the players running the campaigns? There was a poll run on name ID, what were the results? Why is Sen. Sally Doty and Perry Parker having so much trouble raising money? What percentage of the GOP vote is in Rankin/Madison? Two candidates have already run TV ads. Are they having any effect? Which candidate has the most support from their home county? There is video of the candidates announcements to run for this office. What kinda turnout did each have and who was there? Who is getting endorsements from the major political players? The courthouse crowd will play a major role in deciding this race. Who has their support? Which candidate had an affair and it made the news? Which candidate has been married to the same spouse twice? Every candidate comes from a different county, who can't win their own? What are the predictions on turnout in? What percentage will vote in the runoff and who will that favor? Who is working social media? There have been a lot of debates, any clear winners or losers?

Anonymous said...

I don't vote for ANY candidates named Tate.

Anonymous said...

@11:49 yep can’t think of any successful prosecutors other than Stennis,Giuliani, Gowdy, Kennedy,

Anonymous said...

I’m sick of the commercial with guy talking about what an Arkansas coach said about him. I mean, really? Is that all you got? It’s like-wtf? He needs to find something else.

Anonymous said...

@2:47 you should take note of what a opposing hall of fame coach said about a Mississippi State player. Maybe Whit will bring that same tenacity to working for the people of Mississippi!

Anonymous said...

@2;47 nails it on this commercial by Hughes. The question is, why would you run an add about someone who had a never-mentioned or memorable sports career? Ok, if you had hit some game winning shot that won a national title and was replayed on ESPN year after year, then maybe or if you were a BIG name like Brett Favre it would make sense. Your running for Congress and trying to connect with whom? GOP primary voters. Voting age 50 and up. 60-70 is probably the big voting block. This commercial by Hughes screams, "I have nothing to offer other than my ego and I want you to perceive me as someone who is/was more important than they really are." And what's the deal mentioning Nolan Richardson???? Like, how many primary voters even know who that is? Talk about coming out of left field. It's like all this campaign is intended to do is self-promote without the slightest hint of wanting to serve.

Anonymous said...

@3:58 MAYBE? That will pack'em in for Ole Nit-Whit at the polling place. MAYBE...he has nothing else to offer.

Anonymous said...

10:10, you and the rest of the staff are trying hard, but you show yourself with your opening comment about how to determine who is winnng - 'who are the players running his campaign'? You actually think your name being attached to the campaign is what determines the winner? Just because you set the deal up when Harper 'announced' his retirement, hired Harper's daughter for the campaign and promised her a job after election - many of the voters in the district don't really hold you in that high an esteem. The rest of your basises for figuring out who is ahead tell the rest of the story - all the 'positive' theories point to your candidate (at least in your mind) while you take cheap shots at your opponents ('same spouse twice'; 'had and affair'). We all know you aren't above this in your campaigns, but generally you are better at trying to hide your direct involvement. Maybe you rushed to hard to get this post up before church this morning, and let your guard down.

Anonymous said...

Having the drive and desire to excel in sports often translates into broader success in life. As such, it's not that complicated to understand why Hughes would tout this in his campaign ad. I consider his accomplishments (as the proverbial sixth man who succeeded by grit more than raw talent) to be significant. That said, I believe Hughes is also running on his conservative principles. I'd say this is better than the typical "I'm going to be hard on crime" type of Mississippi politician that moves to Washington and gets stuck in the swamp.

Anonymous said...

I have not been too impressed with any of them. I think Guest and Hughes will make the runoff. The Democrat Michael Evans has a lot of appeal and is the type of candidate who will get some votes in the general election. Perry Parker is a good candidate but not hearing anything about him at all.

Dee Ray said...

I'm unimpressed with somebody's basketball bench experience and could not be less impressed with somebody being a county prosecutor for several years. Neither translates to what we expect of a representative in Washington.

Oh, but wait....Being a second string basketball player means you must have had drive and determination and the ability to run wind sprints and you were tall. And being a prosecutor translates to how determined you might be to not be a Rino and follow the Pied Piper McConnell and how I can expect you to vote on trade issues and country of origin labeling.

Anonymous said...

4:21 - but it was a mentioned sports career for many; and I do live in the district. I remember well watching the entire MSU BB team of 1996, and its run to the Final Four. And, I remembered (without the ad) the 6th man player on that team and the way he played. (Granted, remember Donte Jones, and Marcus, and Erick Dampier as well.) It was and remains the only appearance of a Mississippi team in the big dance. Don't think it qualifies him for Congress, but that's not how I saw the commercial. Instead I saw it as an insight into a white boy from Jackson who had the grit to make it on a southern basketball team with players who probably had more talent than he did but he had the fortitude to fight it out to play with the rest of them.

If you want to measure the candidates by their backgrounds, please give me your insight as to the candidates. Oh, wait. You already did that with your terribly helpful insight into how to handicap this race. Sorry. I don't accept your backdoor manner of telling us that someone that couldn't pass the bar exam, not once but twice, and backed into being a prosecutor that has figured out how to finance county operations by stopping drug dealers on their way home and taking the cash would be a better qualification. Although I don't give much credence to his cash grabs, I do acknowledge his business ability by selling his insight into county operations and establish a debt collection company that harrasses poor folks for questionable debts.

Me - i will prefer the basketball player.

Anonymous said...

You have to have a high opinion of yourself to think that people will vote for you because you came off the bench. When I played, we called them wannabes. Then the only reason you got jobs was through political connections. When you are running against a State Senator, a Prosecutor and a top Goldman Sachs Executive who now employs 500 people, you have to make yourself larger than you actually are.

Anonymous said...

The ad is still weak and cringeworthy. BTW, what was Hughes' tenure at Ms. Development Authority? Healthcare professional?

Anonymous said...

Who cares unless they switch parties they will be in the minority.

Anonymous said...

Seems like “Whit” has some people scared. If not, why all the chatter about the so called “bad” campaign commercial. The last time I checked if you can get people to talk about and actually remember something from your campaign commercial you have done your job. Great job on the commercial! It appears to be very effective!

Anonymous said...

Is it too late for Bill Crawford to run as a Democrat?

Anonymous said...

I haven't seen the basketball ad on TV yet. Is it titled "White Boys Can Jump"?

Anonymous said...

Fake comment @ 11:49 AM.

Anonymous said...

Well, in all honesty, Harper wasn't a standout in Washington and was pretty much a establishment yes man, so the bar isn't set very high for any of these wannabes to have a chance to really shine.

Anonymous said...

"Pretty much a establishment yes man"?

You're being too kind. Harper never took a stand on any critical legislation until the very last minute after Boehner, and then Ryan, told him how to vote. Harper voted more times with Pelosi and Obama than he voted with conservatives like the members of the House Freedom Caucus. Like Cochran, Harper's only focus was keeping the pork skids greased regardless of the woes he was heaping upon future generations. Harper leaves no legacy of accomplishment.

Anonymous said...

Just because Harper didn't vote with the House Freedom Caucus doesn't equate to being a 'yes man' or voting with Pelosi. If you want to make such wild statements as your "voted more with Pelosi", bring on the facts to back it up. Otherwise, eat your words and let them come out the end where they are more appropriate.

And no, I am not a Harper apologist. Don't think he did much of anything to 'shine' while in office, other than some initiatives that some might call self-serving that result from his family issues. But you and your "Freedom Caucus" being the end-all and be-all of the world need to move on out of the obstructionist way and realize that being against everything is not doing anything.

Anonymous said...

I was proud to have Greg Harper as my Congressman. Totally disagree with you, 1:36.
I'll vote in the Republican Primary. I prefer Michael Guest in his current position. Can't get excited about Whit - he already sounds like a career politician, though he states in his ad that he is not. I had never heard of Sally Doty, but have been impressed so far, and am strongly considering her.

PLEASE Get a Clue said...

Gregg Harper is NO Conservative. Voted with Nancy Pelosi and the Democrats year after year on all the Omnibus budget bills that funded Obama's disasterous agenda.

Conservative Review
Gregg Harper Liberty Score F

Heritage Action
Gregg Harper 63%

Freedomworks
Gregg Harper 63%

Club for Growth
Gregg Harper 66%

American Conservative Union
Gregg Harper 78%

Anonymous said...

"...Proud to have Greg Harper as my congressman." What is the relative value of a comment like that? I'm 'proud' to have the donut man in Madison at 5:40 a.m. too.

Anonymous said...

3:00 pm you really need to check out Perry Parker! And you will all start hearing more Perry Parker soon. He’s the conservative business man choice with nobody in his pocket. The man is self funding 2/3 of his campaign and can’t be bought nor persuaded with money. He doesn’t need it. He said” To whom much is given, much is required and I feel like that is where my life is right now.” He’s the type of guy we need representing us and helping trump!

Kingfish said...

To the reader whose comments I won't approve: Here is the deal sport. Keep turning a candidate's name into a racist one, and your comment probably has a better chance of getting approved.

Anonymous said...

Frankly; As I observed Harper, it was a dead heat for four to six years as to whether HE or Dilbert would run the most ads advocating for disabled children. While those little ones do need advocacy, is that why we elected either of them?

Anonymous said...

Perry Parker may be conservative but he didn't have a basketball coach call him, "The grittiest player in the SEC," Like Whit Hughes did. You can be POTUS on that statement right there. LOL

Anonymous said...

Well, April 23, 2018 at 4:32 PM, since you asked, I made that statement to oppose Cong. Harper's detractors without listing each of their post times. You are quite the smarta--, but I like donuts too, so ome-lette that slide.

Anonymous said...

I won't make up my mind until I see who Pete Perry is Pushing. Usually he's way out in front of these threads. Maybe he's posting as 'anon' now. I reckon I'll just rely on Billingsley and Latino, above.

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Trollfest '07 was such a success that Jackson Jambalaya will once again host Trollfest '09. Catch this great event which will leave NE Jackson & Fondren in flames. Othor Cain and his band, The Black Power Structure headline the night while Sonjay Poontang returns for an encore performance. Former Frank Melton bodyguard Marcus Wright makes his premier appearance at Trollfest singing "I'm a Sweet Transvestite" from "The Rocky Horror Picture Show." Kamikaze will sing his new hit, “How I sold out to da Man.” Robbie Bell again performs: “Mamas, don't let your babies grow up to be Bells” and “Any friend of Ed Peters is a friend of mine”. After the show, Ms. Bell will autograph copies of her mug shot photos. In a salute to “Dancing with the Stars”, Ms. Bell and Hinds County District Attorney Robert Smith will dance the Wango Tango.

Wrestling returns, except this time it will be a Battle Royal with Othor Cain, Ben Allen, Kim Wade, Haley Fisackerly, Alan Lange, and “Big Cat” Donna Ladd all in the ring at the same time. The Battle Royal will be in a steel cage, no time limit, no referee, and the losers must leave town. Marshand Crisler will be the honorary referee (as it gives him a title without actually having to do anything).


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If you get tired come relax at the Fox News Tent. To gain admittance to the VIP section, bring either your Republican Party ID card or a Rebel Flag. Bringing both will entitle you to free drinks.Get your tickets now. Since this is an event for trolls, no ID is required, just bring the hate. Bring the family, Trollfest '07 is for EVERYONE!!!

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