Saturday, June 20, 2020

Covid-19 Transmission Worsening in Mississippi

The transmission of Covid-19 is getting worse in Mississippi.
Mississippi's Rt value was 2.0 on March 8.  Such a value means each Covid-19 patient infects two more individuals.  Hence the growth tends to be exponential in nature.  Rt fell to 1.0 on April 17. 

It reached a low of 0.90 on May 4 but it has unfortunately risen to 1.07 today.  

The Rt Live website produced a daily chart for each state's Rt value. The Instagram dudes (The original founders, not Suckerberg) created the website.  Each state's chart begins on March 3.  Click here to access the website.  
Quartz.com describes Rt:

This is where the Rt can help. By showing how SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19, is spreading in a particularly population in real time, Rt gives policy makers an up-do-date snapshot of the current epidemic situation. As Gabriel Leung, an epidemiologist and dean of medicine at HKU, noted in a recent op-ed in the New York Times, the Rt helps decision makers “more precisely adjust their interventions to keep that number at what is, for them and their constituencies, an acceptable level.”

Mississippi's Rt value was 2.0 on March 8.  Such a value means each Covid-19 patient infects two more individuals.  Hence the growth tends to be exponential in nature.  Rt fell to 1.0 on April 17.  Article.




What does this mean?  It means transmissions are increasing.  Watch the Health Department charts over the next two weeks.  It will not be a surprise if they reflect the growth of the transmission factor.

Those watching Covid-19 charts should put this one on their list. 

39 comments:

Anonymous said...

Looks like the line is flat to me, but what do I know. I ‘m not a smart blogger.

Anonymous said...

I think it's 50-50 whether football will be played this Fall. Every time somebody tests positive on a football team eveybody around him goes into isolation. You can't go forward operating like that.

Anonymous said...

@1:59 (as line is clearly inflecting up, never mind math) "line is flat to me." I was almost convinced but he didn't call me "sheeple" so I guess I'm still persuaded by science and measurements.

BS Headline! said...

0.90 => 1.07 is almost a rounding error. Jeeesh!

That like say it was 85 degrees yesterday but 87 degrees today, so it must be "global warming."

Anonymous said...

Thank you for posting this. Was about to start my shakes from lack of information. Still feeding the sheep which is good.

Anonymous said...

And if you’re under 50 you’re more likely to be hit by a flying armadillo

Anonymous said...

Just left Lowe’s in Madison. I’d say roughly 30-40% of people wearing masks. You’d think that you’d make it mandatory for a few months but nahhhh. Muh freedom

Anonymous said...

I say just cancel all sports until next years baseball season start. We've done so well so far. This way we can all focus on our impending deaths.

Anonymous said...

AND also, 2:36 - the Rt at 1.07 is an "estimate"; between 0.86 and 1.25

The 'increase' from .90 is truly a rounding error at this point since all this is an estimate.

I'm not one that is denying the problem or claiming hoax. I believe we all need to be COVID aware, use good common sense, and follow the guidelines.

But to say that using these numbers is an "increase" with no better science available than we have is truly a false headline.

The line is, for statistical purposes, flat. IF it continues on the slight upward curve that the estimated values have it at now, then it will be an increase.

Is it a good metric for policy makers to use? Certainly. Along with dozens of others - but not as a standalone to claim that the sky is falling again.

Anonymous said...

1:59 may not be a "smart blogger," but he is clearly a smart ass.

From the website, it appears that all 50 states went from well above 1.0 on March 8, to well below 1.0 by the third week of April. The measures obviously worked. The cost/benefit analysis is a while other topic.

Anonymous said...

Well . . . let's remember what was going on a few weeks ago.

Church Services in parking lots were potentially covid deadly.

But a few days later . . . mass protests were fine.

Now there's a new spike in Covid cases ?

Who would have thought that would happen ?

Anonymous said...

Too bad they aren't graphing the economic destruction caused by the bullshit lockdowns per state.

Anonymous said...

I expected a rise with everything opening up. Closing everything was to slow the spread not stop it. You can’t stop it and you can’t close America for a year or years. What a deal China gave us. Don’t buy anything made in China!

Anonymous said...

Today's news - 19 Clemson players test positive. All we need is prayer from pastor Freeze.

Anonymous said...

Really need to dig deeper in the numbers. All the left wants to do is talk about positives, but the number of hospitalizations, deaths, etc is the real number we need to watch.

A lot of positives without a lot of hospitalizations would probably be best for herd immunity. An effective vaccine, may be here by the end of year or may take years to achieve, we can't put our lives on hold for that.

For healthy people under age 55, there is very little risk of serious complications.

Anonymous said...

I've never seen over five people in Madison Lowe's wearing a face mask. Whoever said 40% is sniffing the pot plants.

Dr. Evil said...

Rrrrrrright.

Anonymous said...

Who wants to put money on an Asteroid wiping us out before Covid does? And no cotton quality face diaper will help with that.

Anonymous said...

They announced they weren’t going to issue much data anymore. “Software Issues”. They haven’t released numbers in two days.

Anonymous said...

Let's face it. Nobody really knows what to do. Every restaurant is handling it different. The restaurants that are trying the hardest are also the ones that are suffering the most. Ride out to Pelican Cove tomorrow afternoon (or tonight) and you'll see an example of why transmissions are increasing. Some places act as if there never was a virus.

We are so careful walking around in grocery store, its like we are in an AIDs ward in the 80s, and then you turn around and see 80 people stacked on top of each other waiting on a table at a restaurant BECAUSE HALF THE TABLES ARE NOT OPEN. Brilliant.

And don't even get me started on this idiotic rally in Oklahoma.

Anonymous said...

Saturday National Numbers. Tests 584k. Most in a single day. 32k Positive.

Anonymous said...

@4:59
Elon Musk has a plan for that. He can launch 10 dragon 5 falcons at once. I saw the tik tok. Yeah they just put an unsold Tesla under each rocket and she lights up like the fourth of July.

Anonymous said...

2:09. If college football season is canceled, there will be more chaos in these parts than anything some measly Wuhan virus can cause.

Anonymous said...

My favorite comments on all Covid stories start like this -

"I was in (insert store name) and only (insert random low number or low percentage) of people were wearing masks"

Anonymous said...

Yep..you can get a ticket for being in a church parking lot praying but you can go and protest within arms distance even though you are wearing a mask but you can’t pray God In your car. The SILENT MAJORITY like myself have had enough and will rise. And we don’t march down a street with purple, pink, green or blue hair and 50 tats on our bodies (which looks like a melting ice cream cone on a female butt when she hits 40.....psssstttt but don’t tell them that )...Oh, how did I get off on that rabbit chase? What I’m trying to say is damn...I forgot calgon, take me away!!!! Just a little ‘70’s nostalgia there... damn I miss those days

Anonymous said...

4:44, if Freeze was at Clemson, they would not have the virus problem and they would have won another natty last year.

Anonymous said...

@5:46, you are correct, the only gatherings that will be allowed and that are safe are the ones YOU personally support!

Anonymous said...

Here’s another good site with info on the Rt rate and estimated deaths.

https://covid19-projections.com/us-ms

And too many don’t understand how a small difference in the Rt rate can make a big difference in the disease. Given about a week in case transmission a .9 Rt would drop the daily cases by 75% in 14 weeks. An Rt would double the daily cases in just 8 weeks.

Just doing a little bit more can mean we could virtually eliminate any uncontrolled spread by October, and a little more complacency could see us with 4 times more cases and deaths in the same period. It not just a rounding error if you have even a basic understanding of compounding over time.

Anonymous said...

Follow the numbers. The virus in the black community in Madison is spreading at a substantially higher rate than among whites. The same is true in Hinds. No one seems to be talking about this, but they should be. It isn’t the white folks at waiting in line at Pelican Cove who are spreading the virus. The growth rates naming whites in Madison and Hinds is pretty slow and flat. No so In the black community. And while it is foolish for anyone not to be practicing social distancing and other measures, more attention needs to be placed on the specific parts of the communities where the virus is spreading most rapidly. But no one seems give a hoot. The black community is being harder hit than white community, not just in morbidity, but in numbers of cases. Is someone paying attention to this in leadership?

Anonymous said...

4:41, you actually can stop it. That's what that green line is. Once the R value drops below 1, the virus dies out because it isn't being transmitted frequently enough to sustain itself in the population. We can leave the economy open and knock this out with masks and social distancing. Or, we can ignore reality and wait until it gets so bad we have to shut everything down again. And guess what will happen then. Everyone will start wearing masks and start social distancing. You can do what's right now with little consequence, or you can wait until lots of people die and the economy is disrupted again to do what's right. Either way, you better get at peace with wearing a mask.

Anonymous said...

The computer in the Health Dept. hasn't worked 4 of the last 10 years.

We are truly lost.

Anonymous said...

It’s headed right for Alabama

Poor Alabama

Anonymous said...

meanwhile, the COVID has broken MSDH’s data department, which apologizes for its “legacy software” (= “crap
that was obsolete 10 years ago”)

so we will have even less idea what’s going on

(& thanks for pointing out the innumeracy, 9:01)

Anonymous said...

Let's all take a deep breath and put everything in perspective. Data from worldometer.com
shows for the USA as of 10:30 AM EST on 06/21/2020:

Total cases(tested positive): 7/1000 population
Mortality: 0.37/1000 population

Distressing but certainly not the 1919 pandemic. I know, I know too early to tell but Happy Father's Day anyway.

Anonymous said...

Thank you 9:01 pm Alas , we have too many in MS who think they understand things they don't.

10:38 pm is certainly one who doesn't understand that race is a factor only because a lack of access to good health care and poverty causing a lack of affordability of protective measures exists in the African American community.

4:30 pm Imagined that no one mentioned virus risks and concern in the protests nor that protesters were wearing masks. If they weren't there were so few that I missed seeing them among the peaceful protesters on any national news sites. I don't look at extremist sites.

It's not that we don't know what to do, it's that some of you refuse to belief reliable sources and search for those who will give you an excuse to be a self-centered asshole . No doubt in WWII you'd have not willingly rationed and sold what you could on the black market. The notion of citizenship responsibility bigger than yourself doesn't exist for some of you.

Anonymous said...

MSDH finally posted some of the numbers from Friday. Hospitalizations had a large increase from 483 to 516. Steady increase almost every day for the past week. Looks like the expected surge after Memorial Day is here. The death rate should take a corresponding leap in the next 10 days or so as the very sick continue to worsen and die.

Great job guys, you passed it on among yourselves and then brought it back home to those who were at risk. It does no good to try and stay vigilant when there are so many obtuse people who don't care about anything but their own convenience.

Calm Down said...

Give it 2 more weeks?

Anonymous said...

“10:38 pm is certainly one who doesn't understand that race is a factor only because a lack of access to good health care and poverty causing a lack of affordability of protective measures exists in the African American community.“
It isn’t that I don’t understand, it is that no one seems to do anything about it or acknowledge that there is a problem. There are multiple factors, such as multigenerational families in the same household, the kinds of jobs held, lack of social distancing, etc. The virus doesn’t spread among blacks because they are black, but because of other factors. The point of my post was that no one seems to be seriously addressing those issues. The morbidity rate certainly is related to lack of health care, the spread is less so. Obviously blacks are getting tested, hence the data that shows a higher rate of spread. Most folks with the disease aren’t hospitalized, so treatment for most is not an issue (there isn’t a treatment for the miild cases anyway). And the most effective protective measures really little to do with affordability.

Anonymous said...

From the MSDH virus web page: "Our daily COVID-19 update will be limited as we work to resolve technical problems in our data reporting system."

Translation: "We don't have anyone with a 3rd grade education who can count to three- or four-hundred and report that number to our webmaster."

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Trollfest '07 was such a success that Jackson Jambalaya will once again host Trollfest '09. Catch this great event which will leave NE Jackson & Fondren in flames. Othor Cain and his band, The Black Power Structure headline the night while Sonjay Poontang returns for an encore performance. Former Frank Melton bodyguard Marcus Wright makes his premier appearance at Trollfest singing "I'm a Sweet Transvestite" from "The Rocky Horror Picture Show." Kamikaze will sing his new hit, “How I sold out to da Man.” Robbie Bell again performs: “Mamas, don't let your babies grow up to be Bells” and “Any friend of Ed Peters is a friend of mine”. After the show, Ms. Bell will autograph copies of her mug shot photos. In a salute to “Dancing with the Stars”, Ms. Bell and Hinds County District Attorney Robert Smith will dance the Wango Tango.

Wrestling returns, except this time it will be a Battle Royal with Othor Cain, Ben Allen, Kim Wade, Haley Fisackerly, Alan Lange, and “Big Cat” Donna Ladd all in the ring at the same time. The Battle Royal will be in a steel cage, no time limit, no referee, and the losers must leave town. Marshand Crisler will be the honorary referee (as it gives him a title without actually having to do anything).


Meet KIM Waaaaaade at the Entergy Tent. For five pesos, Kim will sell you a chance to win a deed to a crack house on Ridgeway Street stuffed in the Howard Industries pinata. Don't worry if the pinata is beaten to shreds, as Mr. Wade has Jose, Emmanuel, and Carlos, all illegal immigrants, available as replacements for the it. Upon leaving the Entergy tent, fig leaves will be available in case Entergy literally takes everything you have as part of its Trollfest ticket price adjustment charge.

Donna Ladd of The Jackson Free Press will give several classes on learning how to write. Smearing, writing without factchecking, and reporting only one side of a story will be covered. A donation to pay their taxes will be accepted and she will be signing copies of their former federal tax liens. Ms. Ladd will give a dramatic reading of her two award-winning essays (They received The Jackson Free Press "Best Of" awards.) "Why everything is always about me" and "Why I cover murders better than anyone else in Jackson".

In the spirit of helping those who are less fortunate, Trollfest '09 adopts a cause for which a portion of the proceeds and donations will be donated: Keeping Frank Melton in his home. The “Keep Frank Melton From Being Homeless” booth will sell chances for five dollars to pin the tail on the jackass. John Reeves has graciously volunteered to be the jackass for this honorable excursion into saving Frank's ass. What's an ass between two friends after all? If Mr. Reeves is unable to um, perform, Speaker Billy McCoy has also volunteered as when the word “jackass” was mentioned he immediately ran as fast as he could to sign up.


In order to help clean up the legal profession, Adam Kilgore of the Mississippi Bar will be giving away free, round-trip plane tickets to the North Pole where they keep their bar complaint forms (which are NOT available online). If you don't want to go to the North Pole, you can enjoy Brant Brantley's (of the Mississippi Commission on Judicial Performance) free guided tours of the quicksand field over by High Street where all complaints against judges disappear. If for some reason you are unable to control yourself, never fear; Judge Houston Patton will operate his jail where no lawyers are needed or allowed as you just sit there for minutes... hours.... months...years until he decides he is tired of you sitting in his jail. Do not think Judge Patton is a bad judge however as he plans to serve free Mad Dog 20/20 to all inmates.

Trollfest '09 is a pet-friendly event as well. Feel free to bring your dog with you and do not worry if your pet gets hungry, as employees of the Jackson Zoo will be on hand to provide some of their animals as food when it gets to be feeding time for your little loved one.

Relax at the Fox News Tent. Since there are only three blonde reporters in Jackson (being blonde is a requirement for working at Fox News), Megan and Kathryn from WAPT and Wendy from WLBT will be on loan to Fox. To gain admittance to the VIP section, bring either your Republican Party ID card or a Rebel Flag. Bringing both and a torn-up Obama yard sign will entitle you to free drinks served by Megan, Wendy, and Kathryn. Get your tickets now. Since this is an event for trolls, no ID is required. Just bring the hate. Bring the family, Trollfest '09 is for EVERYONE!!!

This is definitely a Beaver production.


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Jackson Jambalaya is the home of Trollfest '07. Catch this great event which promises to leave NE Jackson & Fondren in flames. Sonjay Poontang and his band headline the night with a special steel cage, no time limit "loser must leave town" bout between Alan Lange and "Big Cat"Donna Ladd following afterwards. Kamikaze will perform his new song F*** Bush, he's still a _____. Did I mention there was no referee? Dr. Heddy Matthias and Lori Gregory will face off in the undercard dueling with dangling participles and other um, devices. Robbie Bell will perform Her two latest songs: My Best Friends are in the Media and Mama's, Don't Let Your Babies Grow up to be George Bell. Sid Salter of The Clarion-Ledger will host "Pin the Tail on the Trial Lawyer", sponsored by State Farm.

There will be a hugging booth where in exchange for your young son, Frank Melton will give you a loooong hug. Trollfest will have a dunking booth where Muhammed the terrorist will curse you to Allah as you try to hit a target that will drop him into a vat of pig grease. However, in the true spirit of Separate But Equal, Don Imus and someone from NE Jackson will also sit in the dunking booth for an equal amount of time. Tom Head will give a reading for two hours on why he can't figure out who the hell he is. Cliff Cargill will give lessons with his .80 caliber desert eagle, using Frank Melton photos as targets. Tackleberry will be on hand for an autograph session. KIM Waaaaaade will be passing out free titles and deeds to crackhouses formerly owned by The Wood Street Players.

If you get tired come relax at the Fox News Tent. To gain admittance to the VIP section, bring either your Republican Party ID card or a Rebel Flag. Bringing both will entitle you to free drinks.Get your tickets now. Since this is an event for trolls, no ID is required, just bring the hate. Bring the family, Trollfest '07 is for EVERYONE!!!

This is definitely a Beaver production.

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