Wednesday, June 24, 2020

Health Dept: We're Not in Good Shape (Updated)

Update: 526 new cases, 22 deaths (Includes 12 deaths from earlier period), 23,424 total cases, 1,011 total deaths. 

 "We're not in good shape", warned State Health Officer Dr. Thomas Dobbs at a press conference yesterday after   Mississippi reported its worst-ever statistics for the virus yesterday.

The Health Department reported a record 611 Covid-19 cases  yesterday.  Covid-19 deaths climbed to 989 victims.  50% of the deceased were in long-term residential care facilities.  Hospitalizations, ICU's, and vents stayed the same but they are still close to record highs.

However, there is another statistic to watch and that is the rate of transmission (Rt).  The goal is to keep the Rt value below 1.  If it is above 1, that means one patient is infecting more than one other person.  Thus the growth becomes exponential, which is a very bad thing.  Measles has an Rt of 12-15, for example.  If it is below 1, the virus will burn out or cases will dwindle.  See Rt website.

Mississippi's Rt value dipped to a low of 0.90 in early May but has rebounded to 1.10 yesterday.  This value is a pretty good indicator of what the severity of the pandemic will be in two weeks (Dr. Dobbs discusses this at 6:30). 

Dr. Dobbs said "people have pretty much abandoned the principles of social distancing." He said if people would wear masks, distance, and avoid large gatherings, the virus would "fade out."   "I'm really fearful going into the fall its going to be an absolute disaster" lamented the State Health Officer.

If the pandemic "continues on its current trajectory, it will absolutely overwhelm the health system," he continued.  One woman couldn't find a hospital to treat her fracture for several hours because those near her were full.  Some hospitals are setting up ICU's in emergency rooms (2:05).

Dr. Dobbs said he would support a mask requirement but said people aren't going to do it (8.00). 


Anonymous said...

Sounds like he is getting us ready to be locked up again by our governments (Federal and local). Just go ahead and cancel ALL sports, close the schools for another year, and plan on incarcerating many people and have no idea where the money will come from, but pay every American for being employed by the Governments. Hope they remember this when elections roll back around, that is if we are still a Republic by then.

Anonymous said...

So let's cancel surgeries and underwhelm hospitals. Not enough of them were bankrupted. We still have too many hospitals in this country.

Anonymous said...

A big fat nothingburger, heh? Where is that man or woman who is so wise in the ways of science now?

Anonymous said...

Wow, amazing it's almost like it isn't going to just "go away" and the heat doesn't kill the virus. Who could have ever imagined???

Anonymous said...

Any idiot who saw it spreading in Equatorial tropics would know the heat wont kill it.

Anonymous said...

Takes mask off, lays on (contaminated?) table, touches repeatedly, touches face, puts mask back on... Is the mask now (possibly) contaminated? Asking for a friend....

Anonymous said...

3 months ago the gov should have implemented a masks in all businesses rule. Now here we are.

Anonymous said...

may. May. MAY. May = code word for "we really don't f'ing know" but we need to cause some sensation and panic to keep people in fear so the people will do what we tell the people to do.

Anonymous said...

We won't be locked down again. Ain't gonna happen.

Anonymous said...

Thankfully, we are too much of a backwards, sh-hole state to attract a ton of infected visitors as happened in Louisiana, Florida and Texas, which are now seeing massive increases in their positive cases.

Anonymous said...

Apparently it is now unpatriotic unless one dons a face mask that the CDC has declared provides no respiratory protection against a virus.

Anonymous said...

Actually need everyone infected. Infected does not equate to dead. Antibody levels need to come up. As of now less than one percent of the Country and State's population is infected. Need to get to work folks. By the way, IT will never actually go away, just become less of an issue, at least till the next problem arises that the Government can use against all of us.

Anonymous said...

10:07, I thought that State Health Officer Dr. Thomas Dobbs was considered our current virology expert. Not sure of his credentials but it seems anyone, MD or not that comes on here is a self proclaimed expert. I think he's somewhat of a mouthpiece, but then again I am no expert.

Anonymous said...

10:35 The same CDC that has dropped the ball this entire time?? I tell you what, put on a mask and try spitting. It aint all about protecting yourself, there are other lives to consider.

Anonymous said...

To the guy citing the CDC recommendation on face masks - you are the problem. Telling others that face masks are not needed is misleading and causing a great amount of harm to those who buy your bullsh*t. The CDC recommends face masks to protect the outward spread of the disease. You wear a masks so you don't kill those around you. Death is in your anonymous breath. Humble yourself and wear a mask.

Anonymous said...

The options aren't all-or-nothing. I do predict we will see mandatory restrictions on certain activities even as the economy remains largely operational. Kiss any large gatherings goodbye. Sports, concerts, seminars, etc. will not be allowed. Also look for masks to be mandatory when in a business or government building with enforcement action taken against the owner. You may think you have the individual right to not wear a mask, and it may not be worth the effort to send the police after each person, but it is certainly possible to put the screws to the owners to encourage their own enforcement. You want to make money? Then you'll make sure you run your business safely.

We don't have to shut it all down again, and I don't believe we will. However, the riskiest activities will be taken away if we can't take it upon ourselves to practice some basic mitigation procedures.

Anonymous said...

With over a 99% survival rate ... Be afraid, stay afraid, hide and give up your country. Crazy.

Stanford: Median Infection Rate For Under Age 70 Is Just 0.04%, Average 0.26%

Anonymous said...

99% survival rate.... relax people. It is not the end of time as some would have you to believe.

Anonymous said...

Wow. Who could possibly have seen this coming? It's almost like doing everything they said would spread the virus has spread the virus. Let's all remember to act collectively shocked when hospitals fill up.

We need a mask requirement, and have known this since early on. If everyone wears a mask in public, the virus dies out. What we lack is any functional leadership at the state or federal level that can educate people on the need for masks and explain to them that this is the way forward. Without that leadership, people will not comply with a mask requirement. Leadership vacuums are always filled by misinformation. We need current leaders to actually do their jobs.

Anonymous said...

An Rt of 1.1 means things will double in 8 weeks, triple in 12, quadruple in 15, and quintuple in 18. If you think our hospital system won't be overwhelmed by a five times increase before the end of October you're crazy. And in all likelihood the Rt will increase even more when school starts back the middle of August.

It's like a runaway train. We've got to get the Rt back below one soon or there will be no choice but to bring back mandatory restrictions.

Anonymous said...

Seems that the New England Politburo has made the first move. Make sure you have your travel papers in order.

Anonymous said...

I don't believe the hospitals are almost full. I have 3 friends who are RN's at local hospitals, and are being given way less hours per week as they are "not needed"

Anonymous said...

Y’all need to calm down. 611 cases sounds awful, right?

Can anyone tell me how many tests we ran to get 611?

Answer: 10,715

We’re actually running a LOWER positive hit rate than the day before. Vents are down and the other hospitalization stats are steady.

But by all means, continue the freak out. We tested almost 11,000 people Monday (or more accurately, that’s the number reported) and 600 of them have the virus.

Anonymous said...

But you take your kids to choir practice and you go sit in church for an hour captain.

Come see us in 2 weeks.

How many dumbasses do you have to see who 1) won’t wear a mask, 2) go to some event and 3) wind up in a hospital?

Go forth and get sick and get all herded up.

But quit lying about stats.

Anonymous said...

I'm convinced some of you either don't read what KF has posted or just are unable to comprehend what you read.

You haven't read about the permanent damage of CV19 to the lungs including a lifetime of asthma. You haven't read that that happens in cases that didn't require hospitalization. God forbid you should read research from other countries who have dealt with this longer.

In your stubbornness and stupidity, you are unwilling to sacrifice for our Nation. Wearing a mask and social distancing is hardly a restriction of your "freedom" compared to being drafted in WWII or rationing or quarantines during the TB and Polio outbreaks.

Oh no, having beer with a buddy or playing a game or vacationing is far more important to you.

You say it's your business and your jobs as if you can't do business and have a job and be responsible. You haven't read any economic history of what unchecked pandemics did to the economies when too many were sick and dead for the economies to function. A small roll back scared you , you cowards.

You can't worship God unless you are elbow to elbow and have the choir sing to you? Are you kidding me? Is your faith that shallow that you have to be entertained to be inspired to pray or do good works? You can't read the Bible aloud to your family? You've got to have interpreters?

You are ill informed, self-centered and spoiled. You are like toddlers throwing tantrums if you don't get your way .

We are now second only to Arizona in this surge YOU caused. You will insure that this virus we could have contained will be something from which it will take generations to recover and that while China and Russia thrive, our strength as a Nation becomes non-existent.

You are traitors as far as I'm concerned. You couldn't be helping our enemies more if they were paying you.

Anonymous said...

@12:06 Did you even watch the video? Dr. Dobbs explained that hospitalizations have increased (which they have) etc. Also, let me guess, you even hate the thought of wearing a mask.

Anonymous said...

Why is Dr. Dobbs not pointing out the reason hospitalizations are up? Elective procedures were put off and now those coming in for them are being tested prior to the procedure. Test positive. Add 1 to the covid-19 hospitalization count. Viola.

Duty over Dollars said...

Dear Scientifically and Numerically Challenged FreeDumb folks, the "survival rate" from being killed in World War II for Americans was 99.6%. The survival rate from not actually being "killed in action" from WWII was over 99.9% in Mississippi. We lost 1848 KIA. Total. Each loss incalculable to their families. Memorialized in each town.

We are at 1000 Covid dead in 5 months. Spare me your BS "statistics." You know nothing of that and it shows.... badly.

And in WWII, no American dared say publicly, "Well, we're spending a lot on armor, can't our boys go without it? Might save mah tax money. Or, "the boys LIKE charging machine gun nests with a bolt action and defective (cheap) grenades!!!!" "The boys don't WANT to wear helmets or gas masks. It chafes them!!"

And no Internet troll was here to say, "Well, well, folks, those 2400 dead at Pearl Harbor were just a 'rounding error' and we really can't afford to build all these planes, much less ask people to sacrifice anything....., relax people, this German and Japanese Empire is none of our business...... Gosh, I just can't believe the air raid warden asked me to close my blinds, this is TYRANNY!!!"

By your moron math, the 97% worldwide "survival" rate of WWII means that 60-100 Million Dead "tain't nuttin' and no one should complain about their dead. Gosh, what do people expect me to do, sit home for month and watch Netflix!!! Naw, son, it was hell on Earth in a lot of places.

But, God Forbid you have "GubMint tyranny" as they ask you to wear a mask. To save an American's, and maybe a Medal of Honor winner or WWII vet's, life. Pathetic.

Anonymous said...

12:23 Nobody that comes in for an elective procedure and tests positive for COVID is going to be allowed to go through with the procedure. They will be immediately sent home to quarantine and hence your theory they count as a COVID hospitalization is complete bunk.

Anonymous said...

@11:46AM Wow! This explains a lot about why people are so cavalier about the reality of this. You sight a non-peer reviewed paper on a non-settled measurement (if you had read the paper you would have understood that the author acknowledges this) and you're apparently good to go. Do you even understand what you're reading? Alternatively, you might want to look at MSDH figures on this issue. These figures indicate as of June 22 a death rate of 19.8% in the plus 70 group for known infections in Mississippi. Is this the final death rate? No, because this is evolving as we get more data on this. That's the nature of researching something novel. Can you spare a little empathy for those of us who think there may be wisdom in proceeding with caution here, especially for the vulnerable?

As of June 22, 2020
Age Group Cases Deaths Infection Mortality Rate
70-79 1662 268 16.1%
80-89 1053 223 21.2%
90+ 441 135 30.6%
Total 3156 626 19.8%

Anonymous said...

12:04 The issue isn't the number of hospital beds, it is the number of ICU beds and available ER capacity. Look at the numbers, 1/4 of all COVID hospitalizations are in the ICU which can quickly overwhelm the system when the numbers start to climb.

Anonymous said...

It seems that this dumb ass state leads in most communicable diseases, so why not COVID? We are the STD capital of the US, and we love us some diabetes and heart disease to go with our communicable diseases.

Anonymous said...

Second to the deaths, the saddest part about this is the realization of how unbelievably stupid and heartless some of you people are who seek to diminish the impacts of this virus.

Anonymous said...

Mississippi has no shame when it comes to spreading her legs wide for as much of those federal dollars she can handle. These numbers are bogus. But a massive audit would have to be completed long afterwards to uncover the fraud.

Mississippi leaders know that will never happen.....and are glad to lie all year long to get some as much of that federal money as possible before the spigot is turned off.

Anonymous said...

@12:00 - Don't try to do math with these backwoods confederates.

Anonymous said...

98% of UMC is having to take a GD paycut because of this. Don't give me this hospitals are, or going to be, overwhelmed. BULLSH!T!!!!!! People are losing their jobs in the medical field due to not seeing patients. If its so bad, use those people elsewhere where they are "overwhelmed". Political stunt X's 10000000000000.

Anonymous said...

ICU beds available. You seem to think that an ICU bed needs to be on a special unit with blinking lights and all. All hospital rooms have set ups with air/O2 and vacuum. They all have a separate dedicated electrical setup as well. This is also an ICU bed and an entire floor could handle ICU cases. Intensive Care is what it is about and not necessarily a case of 24/7 1 on 1 care. Not seen that even in fancy units. You all need to take a breath and relax.

Anonymous said...

What we have here really reflects selfishness and the fact that many just can't stand to be inconvenienced to wear a mask; besides the fact that it doesn't look cool, or even that it (horrors) makes you look like a wimp.
Heck, people can't even be inconvenienced enough to go the correct way down the aisle at Wally World.
I guess it will be a matter of time before they take the same approach with one-way streets

Anonymous said...

@2:02 Political stunt for whom? This virus is in every continent! Jeez I'm so tired of the political bs.

Anonymous said...

Another record in hospitalizations today with 523 confirmed cases and 244 suspected cases. It isn't going anywhere but up for the foreseeable future.

Anonymous said...

@10:17 - obviously you haven't been around any of these meetings, conferences, etc. -- the tables, chairs, doorknobs, everything is 'sanitized' before, after, and often during their use.

That table that you "QUESTION" being contaminated, and then suggest that his mask use was compromised sounds just like you want to find fault with something you choose to disagree with.

Assume for a second, if you can, that the table was not contaminated as you speculate it 'might' be. Assume for a minute that before this conference it was wiped clean with a sanitizing material - probably much more sanitary than your kitchen table or bathroom vanity.

Now, assuming that it might NOT have been contaminated when he laid his mask down, what would you like to bitch about next?

Anonymous said...

@2:26 - nice building statistics you supply. But you fail to discuss the ICU "staffing" requirements. Even if you have all those facility possibilities that you cite (which is not true in every hospital room, but lets don't quibble) - are those rooms ICU capable without the experienced staffing required?

Answer: No.

So - come back again with some other argument. The one you tried to make doesn't pass.

Anonymous said...

Wednesday National numbers. 502k Tests. 39k Positive. May be single highest positive number since testing began.

Anonymous said...

Here's my $0.02: We, as a society, have become so addicted to constant action and excitement that we can no longer tolerate the lack thereof. We are restless and agitated until we can once again resume the busyness that satisfies our need for high levels of constant stimulation.

Perhaps we should take a look at that instead of rushing off, at any cost, to reclaim life as it used to be. Again, just my $0.02.

Anonymous said...

So all you non mask wearing morons worried about ur rights, STFU and put ur mask on.

Anonymous said...

So now the European Union is seriously considering banning U.S. citizens from traveling there once they start to reopen tourism next week because we have done nothing to contain the pandemic spread.

It is an embarrassment to be lumped into a small number of countries like Russia and Brazil that have totally ineffective leadership on infectious disease. America is quickly becoming a joke on the world stage, but hey, at least you can go to bed at night secure in the idea nobody can make you wear a mask or can keep you out of the clubs no matter how much good it may do for the general public.

Anonymous said...

“Everyone should just wear a damn mask,” Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) said bluntly Wednesday.

“We’ve got to — every one of us — to take this seriously, wear your mask, social distance,” his fellow senator from Florida, Rick Scott (R), said Tuesday.

“I know some people think wearing a mask is inconvenient or an infringement on freedom, but I also know it will keep Texas open,” Texas Gov. Gregg Abbott (R) stressed Monday.

“Protect yourself. Protect others. Help contain the spread of #COVID19. Wear a mask,” Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey (R) tweeted last week

Anonymous said...

Russia is the most based country on this planet. They just finished building a massive War Cathedral for Holy Paladins.

Russia has actual culture that isn't based on consumerism.

The move by the EU is ass backward because they are placing no restrictions on refugees from Africa.

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If you get tired come relax at the Fox News Tent. To gain admittance to the VIP section, bring either your Republican Party ID card or a Rebel Flag. Bringing both will entitle you to free drinks.Get your tickets now. Since this is an event for trolls, no ID is required, just bring the hate. Bring the family, Trollfest '07 is for EVERYONE!!!

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