The hand has begun writing on the wall. The not-so-slim lady is tuning her pipes. The Nov. 27 run-off between Cindy Hyde-Smith and Mike Espy is all but a done deal, with Hyde-Smith the clear winner.
Barring a political miracle, that's what the numbers and political realities say.
The numbers first.
Espy needed a strong, above average showing last week. He got a surge over normal Democratic turnout, about 140,000 more votes than the mid-term turnout four years ago. But Republicans got a bigger surge, about 154,000 more votes. That left Espy with the usual Democratic vote percentage of 40%, about what David Baria got too.
The candidate showing surprising strength was Hyde-Smith. She not only walloped fellow Republican Chris McDaniel by more than a two to one margin – even with McDaniel getting almost the same vote as he did in the GOP primary against Thad Cochran in 2014 when he stunned the nation, but she also led the ticket.
In other words she already beat Espy straight up even with McDaniel in the race.
The total Republican vote percentage was the usual 60%. As MSNBC Hardball commentator Chris Matthews noted, the gap between Hyde-Smith and Espy was small, but the gap between Republicans and Democrats was huge.
Further, unlike Attorney General Jim Hood, Espy showed no ability to attract normally Republican votes. He got more Democratic votes than usual, including a whopping 56,000 votes in Hinds County, but Republicans stayed true. Hyde-Smith polled more Republican votes than Phil Bryant did in November 2015. And she and McDaniel together polled more votes in Harrison County than Donald Trump did in November 2016, a whopping 43,000 votes.
Overall, there were nearly 300,000 more votes in this mid-term election than four years ago. But that total was still about 300,000 votes less than in the presidential election in 2016. In that race, Donald Trump beat Hilary Clinton 58% to 40% (there's that 40% again).
Now, the political realities.
Espy can only wish for that additional 100,000 votes that Clinton got to show up on Nov. 27, while praying that the 175,000 additional votes Trump got will stay home. Results in key races in Tennessee, Florida and Georgia suggest that's not gonna happen. The "Trump surge" driven by his race-tinged, fiery rhetoric worked in those states to offset Democratic surges. There is no reason to think he won’t continue this vibe to Hyde-Smith’s benefit during the runoff.
Indeed, Hyde-Smith's campaign focus matched that of Marsha Blackburn in Tennessee, Ron DeSantis in Florida, and Brian Kemp in Georgia. That focus was "I love Trump," and, most importantly, "he loves me."
Many thought this run-off might decide partisan control of the U.S. Senate. Instead Republicans have already secured their majority, taking much of the limelight off this race. That dimming importance just further dims Espy's chances.
Then there's that McDaniel vote. It's not going to Espy.
"We now have to unite,” McDaniel told his loyal base, as reported by Mississippi Today. “Mr. Espy cannot be allowed to win this seat. President Trump wants us to unite, and we will unite. We will back Cindy Hyde-Smith."
Oh, there may be a debate or two and an Obama or Clinton may be spotted, along with a Trump to stir interest, but this party is all but over.
Crawford is a syndicate columnist from Meridian.
62 comments:
I agree CHS will ride Trump's coattails to victory. Even though he looked weak in France this weekend, first not honoring the fallen at the graveyard, then Marcon dressed him down in his speech.
I wonder what position Trump has offered McDaniek for his uniting speech?
......Alabama didn't cover.
Does he endorse “public hangings” too?
All depends on turn out. If African American and college educated urban white voters turn out in big numbers, Espy wins a squeaker.
9:52. Ain't happening. CM did that in prep for 2019 run for Lt Gov. Realized he screwed up in 2014 with his rhetoric and felt it this time, so as any good pol can do, he diverted and tried a different tactic.
3:22 and 3:52 can dream on. People are rising up to your ways. Why not try having some responsible policies and promote unity instead of always trying to pick the scab of racism and keep people divided for your gain. Your candidate is acknowledgeably dirty and you don’t care one bit. Nor do you care what damage you do to the fabric of the state or country just to be “winners” which, whether you win or not, will never be true.
Nobody gives a shit about France and Macron.
@3:52, Your post should have said "If African American and brainwashed liberal college urban white voters turn out in big numbers, Espy wins a squeaker."
Why would a college educated urban white voter want to vote for a known crook?
cindy cindy cindy...another gop...shilll....
Cindy "I got nothing better to do than be on the front row of a lynching" hyde.....
a sitting US (rookie) Senator (The perfect gop drone ripe for doing whatever the corporate donors tell her)
Vote Espy, Vote for Experience!!
CHS will be a reliable R vote, Espy will be a reliable D vote. MS will choose the R every time.
3:52,
This is Mississippi. There aren’t enough of the latter who will vote for a Democrat.
Cindy Jekell/Hyde Smith made a comment about hanging.
1st grade do not do during an election.
1.) Don't say N***er during an election.
2.) Don't say Hanging.
3.) Don't say Queer.
So she is either stupid or doesn't know how run an election or both.
Points I'll Make:
1) The 'educated urban white' remark is pure nuts. As if republicans in this state are uneducated. Perhaps that poster meant to simply say 'Fondrenites'.
2) This may be the best article, yet, penned by the gentleman from Meridian, posted on this blogsite.
3) I had not heard or read the McDaniel quote before and trust it's accurate.
4) Anybody who pays even minimal attention to Metro 'goings on' knows Espy is way too closely associated with Madison County corruption to be elected in any contest requiring voter ID.
A public hanging isn't the same as a Lynching,plus we talk like that down on the farm all the time.
@3:52 - not in your wildest dreams, sparky.
3:52 what makes you think that all college educated urban white voters will turn out in big numbers for Espy? There are only so many white voters in Fondren who may vote for Espy. I only know a few liberal white voters and they are lawyers who I come in contact with at courthouses. We can't afford for another Hillary/Obama voting liberal to be in the Senate. Our country will go down the drain with more liberal socialist people in government. And, If you think that a uber lib like Jim Hood will win the Governor's race you are dreaming.
Is this the best we can do? Really???!!!!
She’s counting on the farmers to vote her in. The poster at 3:52 said a lot about the college educated white urban voter turning out. They see her as what a lot of us who reluctantly voted for her as. A Cowpoke! Is this the best we can do? If she wants to win she needs to learn when to speak without stepping into a proverbial pile of bull! Thanks CHS, now we pretty much have a democrat about to win the runoff.
If Trump comes to campaign for her, I hope it doesn't rain.
I am more than sick of politics. Back to the Weather Channel.
Someone please go give Cindy some media training. Lord.
college educated urban white voters
You’re not from around here are you?
I think the question is how much of the Republican turnout was anti-McDaniel and how much was pro-Trump to prevent a Democratic congressional loss?
Some of those voting for Cindy Hyde-Smith, may vote for a women against McDaniel but not against a male who was a rather conservative Democrat.
And, female Republican voters may prefer a well spoken, polished, intelligent male to a female who isn't as impressive as the chairwoman or president of any of their volunteer, charitable or social groups.
Rather Cindy Hyde-Smith comes across an obedient woman for her " party du jour" who has failed to initiate much of anything and certainly has not spoken up for women. The least she could have done was try to make sure convicted rapists lose parental rights in MS as they do in all but 6 states including ours.
And, she could have explained female biology and children to our clueless Governor and legislators so they could have excepted rape victims from The Gestation Bill signed in March of this year.( Female puberty is from 8-15 and young victims of pedophiles and online predators don't make timely reports to their parents and can't drive themselves to ER).
KF, given your wonderful support for victims of domestic abuse, I hope you realize that they too have to have the financial resources to fight for custody or else can end up driving their children to Parchman for visitation with the husband or boyfriend that damn near killed them or their parents will have to if he succeeded and fights for his parental rights. I hope you understand they can be raped and held hostage in their own home.
.
After seeing the Tupelo video of CHS, things might change. That video makes her come across as a back woods Alabama redneck.
As a life long Republican, I truly hope the Mississippi and National Republican parties get their act together and start encouraging and supporting better candidates to run for office.
@9:10
Same here. Surely we can do better than this.
CHS outspent Espy 4 to 1. And tied. People are sick of the clown show in Washington.
The public hanging comment is proof that CHS isn't ready for prime time. As a candidate for a lowly state rep or state AgCom post that comment would have been largely unnoticed. But when you are running for a Federal office with journalists from across the country following your every appearance, you better damn well check your hillbilly backwoods instincts and speak like someone with more than an ounce of college education and situational awareness.
I'm hanging with Cindy-
9:10, if it were a Democrat that made the hanging comment, you better believe that kingfish would have posted ten articles on the subject by now.
8:02 - I'll give your post a '2' for effort. We don't vote for people based on whether they're a polished speaker. But, even if we did, I can't recall every hearing Espy speak other than affirming what Rudy told him to affirm at a MadCo Board meeting. When have we heard his polish? Please advise.
He dirty from the getgo and has confirmed it time and again in Madison County Politics and Canton Politics. He needs to stand down and settle for either being mayor of Canton or chauffeur for one of the Blackmons.
We should have put McDaniel in this spot rather than Howdy Y'all.
CHS has signs out all over the Delta, scattered amongst the silos and plowed under bean fields. But if you think farmers out-number the Bennie Thompson crowd in District 2, you're nuts. If they did, we wouldn't have Bennie.
@10 40am
Let me know where I can buy that on a tshirt?
Everybody relax. She's just trying to pick up the McDaniels voters. No harm no foul.
CHS - much like Trump - is a divider. We need unity, not division.
Did CHS find away to honor veterans to day? The weather is clearing she still has time. Doesn't look like Tiny'sgoing to make it to Arlington.
Chuck Schumer isn't a unifier. Espy won't buck his party.
I'm sure the former nurse who got fired for wearing a Confederate flag with a noose over it to the polls in Olive Branch last Tuesday would be happy to make a "Hanging with Hyde-Smith" t-shirt to sell to all the neo-Confederate deplorables out there. He could use the income.
What a stupid thing to say...tsk...tsk you get what you elect or rather you get a product of what you elect in this case, every time some other state is looking worse than Mississippi the hillbilly's have to double down on the stupid....
Cindy doesn't have narry the dirty laundry as does the corrupt espy.There is a difference between lynching and hanging.
Maybe Espy being elected senator will be a strong wake-up call for the Republicans. They have to realize when they push folks like CHS and Roy Moore on us and turn down someone like Delbert Hosemann, this is what happens.
There is a difference, 2:40 p.m., but I find them equally barbaric. Still, I know there is still a strong appetite for public executions as entertainment, particularly on the conservative side of the political spectrum. So no surprise to hear it uttered by CHS.
Washington Politicians will eat her alive if she is elected. Surely Phil new she was a poor choice! Democrat turned Republican to advance her political career. She is an embarrassment to this state.
There you go again putting your ignorance on full display, again, with the Roy Moore comparisons.
How about somebody suggest just what the hell she meant by that and how it was appropriate, in context. It makes absolutely no sense. She might as well have pulled out a kazoo and done a slap-dance ala Hee Haw.
The GOP has a really low bar for its politicians/drones/automatons. .
CHS’s supporters are fine with her ignorance. She truly embodies the look of old Mississippi. Are Bryant and Hyde-Smith promoting the right to life to increase the number of ‘AA’ children being born? So, the goal was to minimize the hanging comment with increasing the number of ‘AA’ births? Is Bryant trying to decrease her support on both sides?
I wonder if she said that terrible as an attempt to get more McDaniels voters out to vote for her.
Is Bryant trying to decrease her support on both sides?
What??? Reduce her black support from 5% to 4%?
The repulsive public hanging comment was a dog whistle to McDaniel supporters.
I am dumfounded and amazed to see that NO readers of the blog have exposed the reverend Jim Barksdale and his ilk to their support of Espy!!!!! BIG money tech liberals are ALL IN for liberal candidates like BETO---do a lil digging---investigate!!
Looks like CHS may have gifted Espy his political miracle. We shall see.
Since when do republicans care about Espy’s alleged “dirty laundry”? Do you not know who our President is and what party he represents. And before you mention HRC she wasn’t elected president. CHS will likely win her runoff. What should concern Mississippians is that she is an empty suit who “supports the president’s agenda.” That’s it. She has no idea how to lead. Where will she stand when the presidents agenda hurts Mississippians who elected her to REPRESENT THEM? For example China’s retaliatory tariffs that hurt soybean farmers.
I still haven't met anyone who personally likes Cindy Hyde-Smith. Some wake-up calls are louder than others.
As stupid as Hyde-Smith's comments were, I doubt that it will keep her from winning the runoff. The only damage is that the margin of victory will be much narrower than if she'd kept her mouth shut. It will give the state GOP time to find a suitable candidate to run against her in 2 years to be rid of her once and for all.
She's too damned dumb to figure out why that statement would enrage black folk. Hell, I'm way smarter than her and I can't figure it out either.
I,ll Hang with Cindy.
Democrats/Liberals are like turtles sittin' on a log, waiting for a bug, any bug, to come along. Anything they can seize upon that will work to their advantage. They'll grab it and toss it around like raw meat, hoping it will convert to votes. That seems, to me, to be way harder than just doing right to begin with. But maybe not.
@2:27, and the Republicans are not?
4:37...You need go no further than the recent lynching of Judge Kavanaugh. Please let us know the last time Republicans exhibited that sort of behavior. Take your time.
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