Here is a wrap-up of coverage of the Senate race results.
First the numbers:
100% OF PRECINCTS REPORTING
Thad Cochran (R) 191,564 51%
Chris McDaniel (R) 184,865 49%
Nate Silver jumped into the Senate race with his statistical analysis of the results last night. Fivethirtyeight.com posted:
It’s clear that Cochran’s vote increases were correlated to the percentage of African-Americans who live in each county. The 10 counties where the incumbent senator improved most were those where blacks make up 69 percent or more of the population.....
We can do more with these regressions, though. We can hold the African-American percentage of the population variables constant in both the Cochran and McDaniel regressions, while adjusting the non-African American variables. This process mirrors on a county level what would happen if white or traditionally Republican turnout went up but black or traditionally Democratic turnout didn’t change from the first to the second round. In my scenario, I kept the African-American turnout constant from the first round of voting, but let the white vote increase as it actually did.
The result: Cochran loses a lot of votes. Instead of Cochran winning the runoff by 2 points, or about 6,000 votes, he loses by a little less than 8 points, or about 25,000 votes. Rest of the article
Widely respected conservative columnist John Fund wrote in National Review:
Imagine if a tea-party candidate in some state had openly appealed to registered Libertarians to help him win a close primary runoff. There would have been howls of outrage that people who didn’t agree with Republican values on social issues and foreign policy were being invited to decide a GOP race. Well, Thad Cochran’s allies performed a version of that ploy tonight by openly encouraging liberal Democrats to vote in the primary. Turnout was up by some 15 percent from the June 3 contest between Cochran and Chris McDaniel. The New York Times reported that “turnout increased by 92 percent in Jefferson County, the county where black voters represent the largest share of eligible voters in the country.”
Thad Cochran will continue in the Senate only because the GOP establishment used “walking around” money to drum up minority liberal voters for Cochran. In Mississippi, despite an unenforceable law saying that only voters intending to vote Republican can participate in GOP primaries, there was nothing preventing that kind of primary manipulation. Rest of article
Mr. Fund also charged in another article that this flyer was distributed in the black community:
Geoff Pender pointed out that the Cochran gains in Hinds County neutralized McDaniel's huge advantage in Desoto County:
Chris McDaniel failed to substantially increase his lead in his home Pine Belt area, and it ultimately cost him Tuesday's runoff for the GOP U.S. Senate primary as Thad Cochran brought in Democrats and fence straddlers.
Cochran whalloped McDaniel in Hinds County on Tuesday, doubling his margin from June 3 and neutralizing McDaniel's strong showing in the Memphis suburbs of DeSoto County. Article
Sam Hall thinks there are four reasons why Cochran won last night. He wrote:
The most amazing part of Mississippi's Republican runoff for U.S. Senate is that voter turnout actually increased from the primary — and it did so by north of 66,000 votes or more than 20 percent.
Rest of articleBreitbart reported the McDaniel campaign is reviewing it should challenge the results:
A source close to McDaniel told Breitbart News that he is considering legal challenges over ballots. Democrats who voted for Cochran on Tuesday but voted three weeks ago in the Democratic primary in the state were not allowed to vote in Tuesday’s election.
Election results indicate Cochran's late appeal to Democratic voters paid off, with the incumbent senator picking up sizable vote totals in precincts with heavily black populations. Partisanship in Mississippi is largely polarized on racial lines, and Cochran allies paid key Democratic operatives to help turn out the vote....Article
21 comments:
Nothing to see here Austin and Sam and Kingfish.
My preference was for Cochran to resign, thus opening the field for more, and possibly well qualified, candidates. Cochran's handlers did a great disservice to this state by their pressing him to continue service ( possibly in order to fill the lobbyist coffers) . That being said, McDaniel's offensive, IMO, advertisements and less than gracious comments (read that as petulant, bitter, childish)upon defeat speak loudly about his true character. I think that he is now damaged goods and will have trouble pursuing any future elected office as a republican. The simple thing would be for him to acknowledge a hard fought campaign, thank his supporters, and pledge to contribute to the taking of the Senate and booting H Reid out.
That's nothing, just wait.
Shameful politics. Wait. . .did I assume that politics could be respectful?
To John Fund's point, McDaniel's campaign was full of capital "L" Libertarians.
I wonder if McDaniel realized today how national politics work when he woke up and all of his out of state support have conceded the victory to Cochran and packed and left in the middle of the night?
I read that he might be looking at some state-wide office run next year. That would be a mistake as he has no rallying cry for any office other than Congress. His do nothing tenure as state senator would an albatross and fodder for the more traditional repubs. And forget taking on Hood for AG, that would be a huge step into dogcrap.
So, do we have a new term in politics? Was Micky D "Scooby Dooed"?
I think we can all foresee how this will go. Cochran will stay in for a couple of years with the party strings attached to him. Obamacare will continue to thrive, illegals will continue to pour in, his state-wide supporters, Ole Miss buds, and lobbyist colleagues will suck off the teat and long as they can. He will resign in mid-term but before Bryant resigns as Governor, so we can put in the next hand-picked RINO. In the meantime, the Country, not to mention, the World is falling down around us because these Republican cowards are scared of the liberal media and a half-black President. Might as well yell, "Give me Barabbas!"
Having said that.
I read that he might be looking at some state-wide office run next year.
Where? We did you read it?
Having said that.
That would be a mistake as he has no rallying cry for any office other than Congress.
According to you?
To borrow a quote from the 2008 Presidential election when Obama was running against McCain. "Anybody is better than Bush"...I feel the same way about Cochran. I don't vote for folks that do not represent my interest. He lost all credibility not fighting Obamacare. The Republicans plan on keeping that monster.
State Senator McDaniel is toast. He has shown his true colors and burned bridges with the Republican Party. Good luck getting Lt. Gov Tate Reeves to even let you speak on the floor.
First election I did not vote im a long time, IMO they were not worthy of my vote.
I voted yesterday and I did not vote for McDaniel. In November I will either vote for Childers or write in. I will not vote for Cochran. While I never expected Cochran to tell the truth, these lies are despicable.
If a third party develops to split the Republicans and hands all power to the Democrats, do not blame the third party. Blame the Republicans. The Rhinos are repugnant.
Listen as much as I could to kim wade on the way home. As I expected everyone called in to proclaim amny years as a republician but this did it and they ill now vote childers. The last guy I heard said they were voting for change so childers would also represent change. None of these people ever were TRUE republicians. I understand the upset and being mad but anyone who claims to vote democrat because of it never was a republician.
Oh For Goodness sake!!! So Sick of this!!! It's RINO= Republican In Name Only, Not the danged animal!!! Learn what a frickin' acronym is, you are making us look as stupid as the dems want every one to believe!!!
It seems that all Thad had to do was link the words 'Tea Party' and 'Your right to vote' and he got tons of black votes. It seems a major problem for me that many blacks have a knee jerk reaction against the Tea Party (lets say conservatives). I think our conservative leaders do a very poor job of explaining what we believe. For instance - we are against raising the minimum wage. A higher minimum wage hurt blacks more than the general population. Young blacks with little education or job experience have a more difficult time finding jobs at higher wages. It would be better for them to get a job, even at $5/hr, in order to get work experience. Conservatives are against extending unemployment benefits. This is good for blacks. Studies have shown that people are much more likely to land a job during their last month of unemployment benefits. It's called motivation. Conservatives are against allowing illegal immigrants into the country. Black folks should be all over this one. They will only be hurt if we allow all these lawbreakers to become citizens. I could go on and on, but the point is not only are conservative views better for conservatives, they are better for most everyone. We just do such a poor job of explaining it.
If Cochran and Childers are alive and on ballot write in votes are thrown out. Write ins are not counted.
4:11 -- I agree completely. Interestingly, have all the McDaniel followers noticed that the outside "help" has disappeared, and moved on.
They had a flawed candidate from the beginning. None of us were ever "crazy" for Senator Cochran, even though I find him to be an honorable man, but we found McDaniel distasteful (as was exhibited in his petulant childish behavior on election night). Election night, was just the final reflection of a campaign that was gauche, immature, and offensive (think Rose Cochran, the Hinds County Courthouse, #WhosYoDaddy, "I will decide if I"ll support him tomorrow evening - and appears he still is not", etc.) We all rear our children to be good losers, and good winners......he exhibited neither on 3 June nor 24 June, so why would we elevate him to the position of Senator?
The only thing Chris can do now, is be a bigger person, and retain some dignity. Live to fight another day.
TP National, nor all the other groups are going to expend one more penny here. They're in a hunker down mode, protecting their turf and exorbitant salaries.
At the end of the day, the candidate was flawed....tremendously flawed, and to assume that Senators in Congress only represent their party, and that Democrats cannot vote in their own best interest (think Reagan Democrat) does a horrible disservice to the 50 years of equality, we've achieved in this state. Telling a black person they must "vote Democrat" is no different than telling a White Person, you must vote "Chris McDaniel".
We all have choices.
First election I did not vote im a long time, IMO they were not worthy of my vote.
June 25, 2014 at 5:37 PM
+1
To 6:39: Duh...Rhino is a word play on the fact that a Rino is not a true elephant. Everyone knows that the acronym for Rino is Republican in Name Only.
People who type "Rhino" are not goofy, but those who cannot catch that a Rhino is a Rino in Elephant clothing are goofy.
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