Wednesday, October 18, 2023

Sid Salter: Competitive Stretch Run Still Favors Governor

 In incumbent Democratic Public Service Commissioner Brandon Presley, Mississippi Democrats have found their most formidable gubernatorial nominee in this century. However competitive the 2023 race, the numbers still favor Republican incumbent Gov. Tate Reeves.

Both current polling results and the state’s voting history bolster that assessment. Current polling (Siena poll Aug. 20–28, Mason-Dixon poll Sept. 27–Oct. 2) show Reeves with leads over Presley of from 8% to 11%. The nation’s most reliable and reputable election prognosticators (Cook Political Report, Inside Elections with Nathan Gonzales, and the University of Virginia’s Larry Sabato) rate the race as “likely Republican or lean Republican.”

Presley is affable, approachable, diligent and stays on brand and on message. Despite never having sought statewide office, Presley is poised to perhaps out-perform the 2019 Mississippi Democratic gubernatorial nominee Jim Hood – who prior to that race statewide voters elected and re-elected attorney general four times in 2003, 2007, 2011 and 2015 by an average of 59.73% of the vote.

But Hood fell far short of that average in his gubernatorial bid. In the 2019 gubernatorial race, even after a pair of bruising Republican gubernatorial primary races with Judge Bill Waller Jr. and Robert Foster, Reeves defeated Hood in the general election 51.91% to 46.83% with a 1.25% split between two minor party candidates.

Presley could well out-perform Hood against Reeves and still lose. Personalities and track records aside, the vote-getting performance of Democratic gubernatorial candidates in general election races has steadily declined in the current century.

In 1987, Democrat Ray Mabus took 53.44% to 46.56% for Republican Jack Reed Sr. Mabus is the last Mississippi Democrat to be elected governor with north of 50% of the vote. Ronnie Musgrove in 1999 was the last Democrat elected governor of Mississippi – winning a plurality of 49.6% of the vote against GOP nominee Mike Parker with 48.5% of the vote with the rest split between two minor party candidates.

Parker – the last Republican gubernatorial nominee to lose a modern-era general election in Mississippi – is notably now a quarter-century later on TV supporting Presley and attacking Reeves.

Then there is the overall partisan measure of voter behavior in Mississippi – which since the era of Richard Nixon has become a solid Republican state in presidential and congressional voting.

Mississippi has voted Republican in every presidential election since 1972 save one – supporting the 1976 Democratic candidacy of fellow Southern Jimmy Carter against sitting Republican President Gerald Ford.

In the 2016 presidential election, Republican Donald Trump took 57.86% of Mississippi’s votes against Democrat Hillary Clinton with 40.06 percent – a margin almost 12% better than Trump got nationally. In 2020, Mississippi voters gave Trump 57.60% against eventual winner President Joe Biden.

In the 2019 gubernatorial race, Trump made a late campaign visit to DeSoto County and tweeted his “complete & total endorsement” of Reeves as the Republican nominee for Mississippi governor. Regardless of Trump’s ongoing battles in the courts and his fortunes in the 2024 Republican presidential primaries, it can be said that the so-called “Trump Train” is still on the track for many Mississippi voters.

Beyond those realities of voter performance and behavior, Republicans hold all eight statewide offices and strong majorities in both houses of the Mississippi Legislature. The GOP holds both of the state’s U.S. Senate seats and three of four of the state’s U.S. House seats.

For both Presley and Reeves, social media and the Web have sounded the death knell for politicians claiming to be “Mississippi Democrats” or “Mississippi Republicans.” Candidates now must own their party affiliations and let the chips fall.

The wild cards are how impactful the national partisan debates are on the Mississippi governor’s race and how much of the deluge of negative TV ads lobbed by both sides stuck on the issues of the state’s hospital crisis, public corruption concerns and culture wars.

The governor’s race feels tighter than the polling indicates, and Presley’s late surge of campaign cash has caused a stir. But three weeks out from the election, Reeves remains the favorite.

Sid Salter is a syndicated columnist. Contact him at sidsalter@sidsalter.com.

 

31 comments:

Anonymous said...

IF Sid would publicly endorse Presley I think that would seal the deal for Tate.

Anonymous said...

Presley is a communist. Look at some of his moves as public service commissioner. He hates freedom.

Anonymous said...

Sid Said, "...it can be said that the so-called “Trump Train” is still on the track for many Mississippi voters."

Allow me to correct that statement for the Departmental Vice President at Mississippi State:

"It's a fact that the Trump Train is still on the tracks for most Mississippi voters."

Anonymous said...

53 to 45 and less than 2 to third party.

Anonymous said...

Very few people on either side of the spectrum find Tate Reeves to be a very attractive candidate. In the present political climate that becomes fairly irrelevant. The majority of this state is just as solidly anti-Democrat as they were anti-Republican 60 years ago. Even more so. The candidates themselves do not matter. Lucky Tater.

Anonymous said...

9:41 AM makes good points. Except there’s a room temp IQ redneck base bringing checkers to a chess match with their votes against Reeves due to the flag issue.

The rednecks are too dumb to realize that Bill Crawford and other Democrat tools created a crisis from thin air with the flag issue - in order to get the dumb rednecks to do exactly what they’re doing - cut off their own noses just to spite their faces.

Crawford and the other Democrat tools sit back and give their party a pass for high crime rates resulting in murders of innocent children as well as children dying from stray bullets. They’re too busy focus on getting room temp IQ rednecks to help Democrats win the state so it can become a crime haven like Jackson.

Anonymous said...

8:30, I'm undecided. Please share what you are talking about.

Anonymous said...

Mississippi's long slide to the bottom is the story of unsuccessful people repeatedly choosing to wallow in imaginary grievances and fictional narratives about a glorious past, rather than admit their own mistakes and try something different.

Anonymous said...

9:55 You are joking of course. If not, you are obviously keeping company with a very small and very strange group of voters. Tate and the Repubs won't lose ANY significant votes to the Dems over of all things...the flag. You might want to broaden your contacts or your sense of humor.

Anonymous said...



To hear all the promises Presley has made to an uninformed electorate, you would think he could walk on water-

Anonymous said...

@11:28 AM Presley can walk on water, but only when it is frozen.

Anonymous said...

Low IQ voters will always vote for promises of more free shit from the government and less freedom.

Anonymous said...

11:20 the flaggers do have an issue with tate. Of course they will never vote for a dem, but if enough of the don’t vote at all, it’s trouble for reeves. Reeves will likely win, but it’s very uncomfortable to actually have to fight to keep your thrown.

Anonymous said...

Presleys main issues is trying to secure his base While getting cross-over gop support. It was Hood’s problem as well. It’s very hard to wake up one without pissing off the other. He should talk to John Bel Edwards. But then again, Edwards didn’t run against the incumbent.

Barbour Boot Camp 101 said...

Any political consultant will tell a candidate, "It matters not what you promise OR what you deliver, what matters is the finesse with which you are able to blame the unfulfilled pledge on others".

Anonymous said...

11:56 - Not to worry - Tate won't be thrown off his throne.

Anonymous said...

This election is not about the Dems actually winning. It’s about putting the establishment on its toes. Its working reeves changed his tune about the hospitals all of a sudden. Also trying to distract from his involvement in fraud scandal even thought he was second in command for 12 years. People are tired of the shenanigans.

Kingfish said...

John Bell, like Doug Jones, benefitted from a GOP civil war.

Anonymous said...

I look forward to seeing how many are tired of Tate's "tough guy" act.

More than a few GOP women are tired of men who name call like children and yell when an " indoor voice " will do and generally behave like bullies.

It's a very bad role model for our male children. We are trying to teach honesty and how to admit mistakes. Worse, we are seeing some GOP women act and dress like bimbos and also behave like shrews!

In short, this " take no prisoners" version of the GOP has infiltrated our families, our schools ,our churches and our social lives and we are sick of it! We'd like to tend to our own families and personal business without every busybody in town trying to make trouble!

McCarthyism ( the first version) worked for a while and then it didn't as the consequences became obvious.

" Have you no Shame?" Look at what you've brought upon us! Dysfunctiob

Anonymous said...

100% against subsidizing rural hospitals.

Anonymous said...

I would be embarrassed to be associated with the clown show by the republicans in the House if I was Tate. How can you be expected to govern if you can't even elect a leader among yourselves. A real circle jerk for sure.

Anonymous said...

It does not matter who anyone votes for. The election system is rigged. Tate will be re-elected if only two voters show up on election day.

Anonymous said...

11:20 AM, I will take your jab without retaliation and offer you these points:

Not joking at all. You don’t have to “keep company with” to easily understand there’s loooooottts of chop off their noses to spite their faces – room temp IQ - rednecks in Mississippi.

Re: not losing “ANY significant votes to the Dems over of all things...the flag,” Bill Crawford and Democrats disagree. Go to this past Sunday’s Crawford link here on JJ and read paragraph 7. Ole Bill’s tooting his horn to all of his leftist buds saying, see, “they will not vote for Reeves but also will not vote for a Democrat, leaving them to vote for Gray or not vote in the governor’s race.”

Every vote counts 11:20. I hope you’re right, but every vote counts.

Anonymous said...

Tate Reeves was a hero and a gentleman when he stepped in Lumumba's shit show and dutifully saved Jackson's water treatment, quietly ignoring Lil Choke's racist lies and bombast.

Presley ain't fit to lick Reeves' boots and his snarky lies are only reflecting his own lack of character, typical of a democrat.

Anonymous said...

3:09 I wholly agree with you that there are lots and lots of room temp IQ Rednecks in Mississippi, but 95 percent of them will vote for Tate and still chop off their noses to spite their faces whenever the opportunity arises as they've done in the past. I just don't think Tate has to worry about losing their votes to some Democrat flag or no flag.

Anonymous said...

Tater Tot Reeves empty suit persona is going to haunt him. He hates freedom. He was brilliant source of shitting down a 33,000 acre lake to fight a virus. What a disappointment as an elected official. Surely MS has someone better????

Anonymous said...

11:37 said, "Low IQ voters will always vote for promises of more free shit from the government and less freedom."

11:37 gave the knockout punch.

Sid and Crawford are terrible writers with dead ideas.

Anonymous said...

Tate Reeves is an embarrassment. I wish Haley could serve again. And I’m a Democrat.

Anonymous said...

11:37 and 8:10 Whether you realize it or not many "high IQ voters" vote for more free shit from the government and still expect their freedom. Really.

Anonymous said...

Kingfish, you are right about Edwards and Jones. In both instances the ego of a Republican candidate took precedence over doing the right thing. Vitter had too much personal baggage to win over enough voters, but ego wouldn’t let him drop out. His failure to do so gave the keys to the Governor’s Mansion to Edwards. Moore, whether justly or unjustly accused of bad behavior from years earlier, likewise had too much ego to do the right thing and withdraw rather than assure Jones of a Senate seat.
Tate may not be the best possible Republican candidate, but Presley (nor any Democrat) certainly isn’t the answer.

Anonymous said...

I am so tired of the vitriol of Mississippi Republican Tate Reeves. Brandon Presley would be a much needed breath of fresh air for this state.


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