Monday, August 10, 2020

Covid-19 Breather?


The Mississippi State Department of Health reported 476 new cases of the Wuhan virus yesterday as well as 16 new deaths.* The total number of cases is 67,649 . The virus has caused 1,912 deaths. Nursing home deaths comprise 45% of overall Covid-19 deaths in Mississippi. There are 49,836 recoveries. More information and a complete list of infected counties can be found at the MSDH website. The Rt factor is 0.97.

The big chart is a mixed bag of good and bad news.  The hospitalizations took a welcome drop but ICUs and vents remain at or near record highs.


The Rt value stayed below 1.0 for several days.



Wait a second. What gives. The chart now says that Mississippi has been below 1.0 since the middle of July. Compare it to this chart.




It appears some revising is taking place. 


19 comments:

Anonymous said...

We are all still gonna die. Shut it all down until New Years to be safe, and also piss off quite a few folks.

Anonymous said...

“It is what it is.”

Anonymous said...

Dobbs cooking the books.

Anonymous said...

Is the SEC going to play? Will the conference champion automatically be declared the National Champion?

Anonymous said...

The number of cases reported the last 2 days are for Saturday and Sunday. Fewer people are getting tested on the weekend. Go figure!

Anonymous said...

Testing is way down over the state. Positivity rate is still the same. I suspect some Hollywood accounting but we will see.

Anonymous said...

Whichever SEC team plays one game this fall will be the conference champion. Ole Miss has a chance if they play their cards right and don't piss the end-zone. Meanwhile, don't forget who hired Freeze at Liberty University.

Anonymous said...

Oh my gosh - look at that hospitalization chart! It's terrifying! Almost everyone in the hospital must be in the ICU as close as those data points are aligned. And look at that huge gap between ICU and ventilator lines, that gap (132 people) is at least 4 times as large as the hospitalization / ICU gap (604 people). Wait, this chart looks a little hinky, it isn't the same format as it was for the last four months. Since when do you use competing vertical axes on the same data chart? Maybe when you are trying to perpetuate a false impression to support a false narrative?

Anonymous said...

@ 10:42 PM Stop making sense!

Anonymous said...

Agree books are being cooked. Hold test results until schools start back and the play chicken little. Just watch. 2nd "spike" coming and will have people crying for their babies.

Anonymous said...

It will get worse with students in school.

Anonymous said...

I pray this is a trend downward. However, we need to look at this over several weeks before we know for sure.

Anonymous said...

I can't help wonder where we would be now if we had never worn masks, never shut down anything. Don't you think we'd already have the worst of it behind us? It seems like we have just kicked the can down the road.

Anonymous said...

We've all been duped into fearing a conjured catastrophe - show me the data for the out months for swine flu, oh yeah...Obama stopped testing and quit keeping records on that "pandemic" because he appointed a political hack with no medical background to oversee the response.

What we have here is a blatant case of information availability bias...

Anonymous said...

The numbers have dropped every weekend as hospitals and clinic staff don't send their reports in timely. Nothing unusual there. We'll see what the next couple of days look like as they play catch up. They've revised hospitalizations up by 50 people before. Saturday and Sunday numbers are notoriously unreliable, and in any event you have to look at the 7-day trend of complete data before you can draw any conclusions.

For what it's worth, the Washington Post has Mississippi third in the nation for infection rate and first by a wide margin in mortality using the past week's data.

Even if things are improving some, we are still in the worst shape of anybody. Maybe the SEC will postpone sports until Spring and then Tater can do the same for high schools. Having spectator sports now is absolutely irresponsible.

Anonymous said...

Does anyone believe there is a single kid starting school or heading back to college who hasn't already been exposed to COVID?

Louis LeFleur said...

Anon 6:52, they greatly improved the chart by using two axes. This is a very common practice when the scales of the data on a single chart are so different. The axes are not "competing", they improve the visualization of the data. On the flip side, dual axes are confusing to people who don't spend a lot of time creating and using charts.

Anonymous said...

We made Newsweek for the numbers game being played. DeSoto County Coroner told the truth.

Even terminal patients are being labeled as covid deaths without acknowledging it was NOT covid that killed them.

PERVERSE INCENTIVE (money, money, money, money!!)

Sorry, I don't know how to do the link.

https://www.newsweek.com/mississippi-coroner-says-states-coronavirus-death-tally-misleading-causing-unnecessary-fear-1523791?fbclid=IwAR1vzHCMhi9fWkxFFXZJPkf5GpiEkWHwwgQovT60eZpvRVf4-RQtPQWdF_w

Anonymous said...

It is important to remember that "the number" posted each day is (only) positive tests reported to the (and each) state, not total new infections because no one - NO ONE - knows just what that number is at any given moment, in any state. Basically, it is the minimum number of new cases in the (or any) state. Yes, a minute number of positive tests are false positives, but a much larger number of the newly-infected aren't tested. I'm not going to argue or debate that point - it is the minimum number of new cases.

That said and this is just conjecture, but it appears that the typical "end-of-summer slowdown" has resulted in a COVID-19 transmission slowdown in Mississippi and other areas. That's good news. Let's not get overly confident and start doing incredibly stupid things yet again - WEAR A MASK and DISTANCE FROM OTHERS!

The K-12 school situation is already showing signs of a problem and testing is still backlogged. Combine that with the demonstrated cyclical nature of reported positives over the weekend (remember, the number reported on Monday is from Sunday) and it looks like today's "positive tests" number isn't completely reflective of the overall situation. The "suspected infections" are down and that's a good sign insofar as hospitals because as has been said, "suspected cases" in the hospitals, at this point, can be taken as "nearly certain cases" - meds pretty much know it when we see it at this point. We are about 1-2 weeks from getting solid information on what the school restarts will really bring.

And, um, Kingfish, you were given a heads-up about putting too much emphasis on the Rt number - it's an estimate based upon subjective assumptions. It isn't just random made-up nonsense (in most cases, anyway) but it isn't anything serious people would rely upon or even pay attention because it just doesn't have any real scientific or even statistical value...it is what it is. If you feel the need to post it, disclose the source and label it an estimate, but your site, your choice.



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If you get tired come relax at the Fox News Tent. To gain admittance to the VIP section, bring either your Republican Party ID card or a Rebel Flag. Bringing both will entitle you to free drinks.Get your tickets now. Since this is an event for trolls, no ID is required, just bring the hate. Bring the family, Trollfest '07 is for EVERYONE!!!

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