Thursday, August 20, 2020

C19 Update: Hospitalizations & ICUs Fall

The Mississippi State Department of Health reported 894 new cases of the Wuhan virus yesterday as well as 27 new deaths.* The total number of cases is 75,449. The virus has caused 2,190 deaths. Nursing home deaths comprise 45% of overall Covid-19 deaths in Mississippi. There are 56,577 recoveries. More information and a complete list of infected counties can be found at the MSDH website. The Rt factor is 0.91.



The big chart is much better than it was a week ago.  Hospitalizations are down to 852 patients after reaching 989 patients on July 30.  ICU's fell to 276 and have reached a new normal at that level for the last five days.  Vents continue to fluctuate.





The Rt value continues to remain below 1.0.  Good news for Mississippi.




32 comments:

Anonymous said...

I’m ready to see the effects of schools reopening. One good outbreak in a major school may be able to really kick this thing up a gear.

Anonymous said...

Things are getting a little better for now, but they are still very bad. Washington Post has us at #1 for infection rate in the nation and 4th in mortality. CNN has us just behind Texas. Either way we are at the top in spreading the disease and killing our citizens.

The 7-day national average death rate is right at 1,000 per day. Given we have about 1% of the total population we should have about 10 deaths per day to be right in the middle. We actually have about 23.

Covid19-projections.com has us with the highest estimated population infection in the nation with about 23.3% of Mississippians having had the disease. For those trumpeting herd immunity, we're less than 1/3 of the way there. New York, where the disease ran rampant early on and decimated the people, is only at 20.7%, California is at 13.3%, and Colorado is at 6.6%.

We have a long, long way to go before we can even say we are average. We'll just have to see what happens now as Tater keeps pushing for kids to return to school and the ball fields along with the inevitable increase from the last hurrah of summer for Labor Day.

America is the laughing stock of the civilized world for pandemic control, and Mississippi is playing a key role in that.

Anonymous said...

I've been noticing more of my fellow patriots ignoring the submission notices posted on entrances.

It feels good to know you aren't alone. And we are quickly discovering that not a single business will deny us service.

Yes we may get some nasty looks or comments from the submissive sheep. But when has the proud lion ever pondered the opinions of a lamb?

Just remember to open carry as well. That also keeps mask gestapo quietly cowed.

Anonymous said...

Mississippi is the fattest state in the Union. We are going to be towards the top in covid death rates. The worst two states are NJ and NY.

Anonymous said...

@2:47
Anecdotal sampling and extrapolation of the "recovered" proves that obesity alone isn't a strong comorbidity. You need to have a comprised immune system. I say that because every rotund employee in my office who tested positive over the last 2 months is back at work. They all say they just gained wait from eating grubhub and watching netflix all day.

Anonymous said...

To some extent our people have been killing themselves for years. COVID has simply changed obesity and diabetes from a chronic problem to an acute one.

Anonymous said...

@2:23 We're not 4th, we're 8th or 9th depending on whether NY city is counted separately (CDC, Johns Hopkins, Statista). Those of us trumpeting herd immunity do so because we realize that's what has always been done with viruses or there would no longer be a human race, particularly when there's no vaccine to get us there easier. In the case of COVID, studies and experience have shown that only between 10 to 40% of seroprevalence is required to achieve herd immunity. You yourself mentioned NY, where cases have dropped off and deaths are almost 0. America is the laughingstock of the world? Is that because we're 11th in deaths per 100K (behind UK, Spain, and Italy) or because our Case Fatality rate is 56th? Nah man, the joke's on you.

Anonymous said...

3:42 I didn't specify it in my post, but the the WP shows the infection and mortality rates on a rolling basis using the past week's data. They are measuring how states are doing currently, not how they may have done five months ago, which is much more important in assessing how states are coping with the virus and determining which one's are experiencing uncontrolled community spread.

On a cumulative basis of confirmed cases we may be 8th or 9th, but as of right now New York has gotten control over their infections and has a current rate of 3 per 100K which is 46th lowest. Mississippi, on the other hand, has a current rate of 29 per 100K which is the highest of all.

Statista has us at 4th in the world for deaths per 100K behind the United Kingdom, Peru, and Chile. That's some wonderful company. A couple of third-world countries and one lead by a person who deliberately did nothing to mitigate the spread in the hopes they would get herd immunity.

Anonymous said...

KF wrote, "Hospitalizations are down to 852 patients after reaching 989 patients on July 30."

You need to add the confirmed cases to the suspected cases for the "pretty close" number of hospitalizations. Some of the suspected cases will come back negative, but most will come back positive. 852 is just the test-confirmed patients and testing is backlogged. That said, since that total number is down from July 30 it is still a good thing but there are still over 1000 or so patients in the hospital due to COVID-19 and unfortunately, the number on vent, the number in ICU, and the number of deaths are all still up there.

Kingfish said...

or did New York burn out?

Anonymous said...

KF, I would say New York has not burned out. They kept their lockdown in place longer and had a much higher compliance rate with masks and social distancing. One study I saw said over 65% of New Yorkers were wearing masks while less than 30% of Mississippians were.

This allowed them to get the infections under control and stop outbreaks as they happened. You can see it in their Rt. It plummeted rapidly and fell below 1.0 on March 22 in conjunction with the lockdown orders. With a small exception in June when it did climb to 1.04 it has remained below 1.0 the whole time.

They didn't burn through the population in just a couple of weeks, their mitigation efforts worked.

Anonymous said...

New York locked down a solid 3 months; Mississippi what, 6 weeks at most, maybe effectively less? Then Tater piecemealed a go slooooow, very sloooow approach to masks, refusing to mandate masks Statewide as if the virus knows where the boundaries are of all 82 counties, only to watch it spread like a flood across his war map of the State. Then Tate wouldn't delay the start of school through the end of this month so we could work hard to get the transmission rates down so the spread wouldn't be quite the slam dunk infectious, nasty virulence it is right now. But oh, he must serious now: noooo tailgating. Gee. Tate: by staying ever behind the ball in your go slow, piecemeal approach to a virus that doesn't do piecemeal, and ignoring Dr. Dobb's best instincts, you've let us wander our way right into the top of the Covid charts in the New York Times and a real mess, especially for the schools. Who would want to visit the Magnolia State now? Much less send their kids to our colleges from anywhere else? Get with it Tate if it's not already too dang late.

Anonymous said...

That's the question ladies and gentlemen. Y'all spotted the issue and took sides. I don't like the "nah man, jokes on you" garbage that makes our dialogue so hateful these days. No need for that. I can tell that two intelligent people came to this board and had something to offer, and I don't know why decorum must be continually breached. NY and NJ were either abysmal failures that experienced a rapid and horrific burn, or they controlled it while the rest of us simmer in our inaction to stop community spread and slowly catch up to them. I think Mississippi needs to reach about 5,000 deaths to be where NY and NJ are now in terms of deaths per capita, assuming they stay stable. Are you convinced either way that we'll get there or we won't? Same thing with the US vs. those western European countries that are currently above us on the deaths per capita ranking. If I understand the math correctly, if we reach about 265,000 deaths, we'll have 800 deaths per million which will put us in the running with Belgium for worst in the world. Are you sure that we won't get there? I'm not. I think we failed, and I think it's obvious.

I'm encouraged by the bend in the curve and think masks work.

Anonymous said...

@Kingfish (Peace Be Upon Him) 4:33, why yes, yes it did burn out. Once they ran out of old people trapped in nursing homes to kill, the virus hit the majority whos immune systems chucked covid in the shitter like it was day old popcorn

Anonymous said...

For what it may be worth, when anyone starts talking about death, death rate, or even death rate per capita as the crucial metric, people who actually know what they are talking about instantly know they are dealing with someone who doesn't know much about it.

Anonymous said...

Muzzle nazis can all go to hell. Cold steel and .45 ACP is the only protection a free patriot needs!

Calm Down said...

I am convinced that masks (tshirts wrapped around your head; surgical paper with ear bands, hipster neck gaiters) don't work. Further, even with masks that have some proven efficacy, unless we are willing to give up our freedom to enforce (under what penalty exactly?) the wearing of masks, we are going to eventually come to an agreement on what the true fatality rate of this virus is.

As for schools, does anyone think that children are safer at home rather than in a school where professionals are supervising their health and maintaining appropriate measures? That goes for the college kids too.

Meanwhile, public health as a whole suffers, with folks not allowed to attend normal doctor appointments, depression due to isolation, preventable deaths multiply. More heart attacks due to the panic, see: https://coloradosun.com/2020/08/17/denver-coronavirus-deaths-heart-attack/

We've had plenty of time to realize that this virus is deadly for those at risk, with age being the primary indicator, along with all the comorbidities we all know. They should take steps to isolate, and meanwhile, the rest can continue on, which is in the best overall public good.

Y'all can go back to mudslinging now.

Anonymous said...

Start spreading the news
I am leaving today
I want to be a part of it
New York, New York

Sing it!

Anonymous said...

Why are all of the news articles only talking about cases? Why is Lord Protector Tater only talking about cases? I thought he was a "numbers guy."

Anonymous said...

Ya'll still gonna die. You know that don't you?

Anonymous said...

I’m astounded but educated here that there as so many commentators around here who think we should let enough of us get affected for life (it’s a blood disease, causing clots, heart ailments, neurological issues, some showing up much later, not the flu) or die in the name of Hurd immunity. Where is the empathy around here, concern for each other, respect for professional, scientific conclusions that masks reduce transmission significantly—now firmly established. Why all the emphasis on selfishness as a higher virtue than cooperation or empathy? Why call empathy besetting? The culture here needs to shift toward a respect for truth, a respect for science, and a respect and empathy for each other in the place of the selfish, me only view of the world. The cult of selfishness needs to change.

Anonymous said...

10:44 here. One edit: “Bedwetting”, not “besetting”.

Anonymous said...

What a sanctimonious load of crap, 1044.

Anonymous said...

There is no scientific consensus for mask wearing in regards to stopping or slowing the virus. If this were the case we would have been wearing masks our entire lives every flu season, and whenever a pandemic came around for the modern medical era. Fauci himself said masks are a symbol. He knows they don’t work for the general population, and so does Birx, and so do most medical professionals who don’t eagerly jump to virtue signaling. Why do you think Fauci pulls it off when he thinks the cameras are off? Why does he wear it on his chin? Why did it take them months before they decided to add it to the Covid response regimen? Because he knows he’s wearing them to make a point and not because they are actually stopping virus. Now he’s added goggles to the regimen. Seriously?

They donned the masks as a result of denying people real medical treatments for stopping the virus. People were panicking and so masks became the medicine, and instead of modern medicine treating this virus in the preventative stages when it should be addressed, they told people to isolate and quarantine at home and go to the ED once it gets really bad. It’s as if we jumped back 5 centuries or so. We’ve been wearing masks for months now and people are still contracting Covid and dying from it.

Elsewhere in the world, third world countries have lower mortality rates from Covid. How is that even possible with the advanced medical care we have?! An entire slum in India of 650,000 prevented a massive outbreak. How did they do it? HCQ, among other things.

Masks are meant to be worn in certain clinical settings for short periods of time. The all-day masking you see now will lead to mouth sores, sore throats, headaches, lung infections, dental issues and more in the general public and kids who are being forced to wear masks all day at work/school. People touch their masks and wear them improperly which will also spread bacteria and virus. Not to mention the psychological effects on children and people with depression and anxiety.

So what our leaders have done is essentially shift blame for the virus to us, the people, instead of focusing on treatments, cures, and protecting the narrow slice of the population who could be seriously affected by this (the elderly and people with serious existing health issues).

I’m wondering what kind of drastic measures we will take for the nearly 8,000 people who will or have died from heart disease this year in Mississippi? Or the 6,000 from cancer? We live our lives normally when these deaths occur day after day. But we’ve thrown ourselves into absolute pretzels of chaos and torment because our media, politicians, and government all have their own CYA and money making agendas.

We are so divided and it’s because of fear. Rightly so I would be scared to go the hospital right now for sure. But what’s been done to us is horrific and one day history will look back on this moment in shock and horror, that at our nation’s highest level they failed to direct physicians to use any and all treatment to save lives and instead quarantined and masked everyone, and broke our economy and free way of life. Just a tragedy.

Anonymous said...

Sure 3:17, just drop your mask since you're sure it is ineffective, what the heck; have all your coworkers and social friends and church members do the same; and you all huddle together every now and then for the next few months to socialize and report back how that's going, and we'll see who all at the end is still around to press the send button.

Anonymous said...

8:13 - How can deaths as a percentage of population not be the ultimate metric? It doesn’t do as much to inform current policy, since it’s a lagging indicator, but it will be the final number when this is all over that will tell the tale. If the US starts to burn out somewhere south of 250,000 deaths or so then we won’t be any different than Italy and co. when the dust settles and the bodies have been tallied. We will have just come after and burned slower. We will definitely look bad when compared to China, Japan, Korea, and co. but so will every other country in the world. They have a amount of commitment to the body politic that no western country will ever replicate.

To be honest, when people have nothing to offer except a vague allusion to some better informed group they are allegedly a member of, I kinda turn away.

Anonymous said...

"How can deaths as a percentage of population not be the ultimate metric?"

Because this is not a binary outcome, either death or perfectly fine. People survive heart attacks, strokes, and myriad other medical situations, but it doesn't mean they are without a variety of on-going medical issues that accompany many of those situations. Same with COVID-19 - lots of people survive but have a variety of on-going issues, many of which give strong indications that they will be mid- and long-term effects. Those unable to understand that prove they have no real understanding of these types of illnesses. I won't lose any sleep over your misunderstanding of any of it.

Anonymous said...

6:37: Dear Mr. Smarty Pants Know It All: A widely reported study came out tonight from Washington State that if we fail to remain vigilent in our safeguards against the virus, we can expect the death toll to add another 135,000 Americans in the graves, for a total of over 310,000 dead, that is people gone forever from their children and off this earth by December 31. Howabout that for a "real understanding of these types of illnesses"? How well will you sleep after that?

Anonymous said...

"6:37: Dear Mr. Smarty Pants Know It All"

Well, best of luck.

Anonymous said...

6:37 - You might be right, and I’m definitely open to that possibility. But I also think that there is no solid scientific proof establishing what if any percentage suffers longterm consequences. I mean, if you went on a ventilator or got other invasive treatment, then yea, you’ll be damaged. But as far as a Lyme-disease-like longterm infection or lingering effects in otherwise healthy people, you’re misinformed if you think that’s proven. Any time you rely on people’s subjective explanations of their symptoms you’re going to find anecdotes that will support a theory like that. I’m a hardcore liberal, but to me, that’s just fear mongering. I’m not sure what you mean by “illnesses like these,” but if you mean viruses or corona viruses more specifically, I think all of us know what it’s like to suffer from and recover from very similar infections, and until proven otherwise, we should assume recovery will be similar. And while I loathe Trump and think he’s a clown that cannot deal with having to actually govern, I do think he’s right that our testing is uncovering a much higher percentage of overall infections in this country. So I think judging the US strictly, or even mostly, by our case numbers is misleading. Deaths are what matter. IHME now has us at 310k by Dec. 1, which would catapult us to near the top. Or we can stop around 250-270k and be comparable to Western Europe. Lastly, I’m a smart guy who reads a lot, but you know what I think is more important than that? I try to meet people on the merits, listen to them, converse, educate, and learn. I loathe that “you don’t know what you’re talking about” garbage.

Anonymous said...

Is that John Galt at 1:54? You do know you are a fictional character, created by miserable hag, right?

Anonymous said...

@9:57, he’s gotta be right. People are suffering horrific, decades long physical maladies from a virus that’s been around................a few months

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Trollfest '07 was such a success that Jackson Jambalaya will once again host Trollfest '09. Catch this great event which will leave NE Jackson & Fondren in flames. Othor Cain and his band, The Black Power Structure headline the night while Sonjay Poontang returns for an encore performance. Former Frank Melton bodyguard Marcus Wright makes his premier appearance at Trollfest singing "I'm a Sweet Transvestite" from "The Rocky Horror Picture Show." Kamikaze will sing his new hit, “How I sold out to da Man.” Robbie Bell again performs: “Mamas, don't let your babies grow up to be Bells” and “Any friend of Ed Peters is a friend of mine”. After the show, Ms. Bell will autograph copies of her mug shot photos. In a salute to “Dancing with the Stars”, Ms. Bell and Hinds County District Attorney Robert Smith will dance the Wango Tango.

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If you get tired come relax at the Fox News Tent. To gain admittance to the VIP section, bring either your Republican Party ID card or a Rebel Flag. Bringing both will entitle you to free drinks.Get your tickets now. Since this is an event for trolls, no ID is required, just bring the hate. Bring the family, Trollfest '07 is for EVERYONE!!!

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