Monday, April 6, 2020

Covid-19 Model Improves for Mississippi

The University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation in Seattle lowered its forecast of Covid-19 deaths in Mississippi. IHME predicted Mississippi would have 674 deaths in a March 25 paper. The updated forecast states Mississippi will have 237 deaths by August 4. Website. 

The model predicts Mississippi will hit a peak in the daily number of deaths on April 21.   The forecast is an improvement from an estimate 918 deaths  just a week ago. 


Anonymous said...

With all due respect to the folks out at Univ. of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation in Seattle, but they cut their numbers by over four hundred deaths. That is an insane adjustment. What is that in terms of percentage change??

This really shows that the folks had no clue what they were talking about to begin with...

Anonymous said...

I ain't seen a more unpredictable model since Gee Gee Hadeed.

Anonymous said...

In other news, approximately 2500 Mississippians die per month.

Kingfish said...

I'm willing to cut some slack. China lied about the virus and provided false information for two months or more. Thus we had little accurate empirical data to use for forecasting. The further we get into this, the more solid data we will be able to use for modeling.

What may be true today may not be true in a week to ten days. The news is encouraging but we will have to wait and see.

Anonymous said...

Did they cut the number because we've all been ordered to stay home?

Anonymous said...

Tell us something we don't already know, Kingfish?

TheClintonscantsuicideusall said...

Just read an article on Fox. Mississippi couple's death from coronavirus came as they held each other's hands. Happened today in Gulfport after returning from a cruise. Don't want to put names up, so read it. One is a Navy Vet who took care of Vets in Gulf Port. So I say, "Fair Winds and Following Seas". Semper Fi to a Navy man.

Anonymous said...

The government response to this nothingburger will cause far greater damage than the virus itself. Your 401k, your PERS, your annuities, your Money Market Accounts, your rental property value, and all of your savings just swallowed a huge hit due to the Federal Reserve creating $5 trillion from nothing that the tax payer is obligated to pay it back.

All because Americans demand that the nanny state care for them because we are too stupid save more than we spend and to put on a mask and go about our business.

Anonymous said...

3 Kinds of Lies. Little White Lie, Damned Lies, and Statistics. Let's get people back to work. Not worth waiting on these mathematical models to be proven or not.

Better Than Ever said...

Saw the same website, been watching it for a while. Best I can tell is that they are basing all calculations off the most recent day's numbers. Can't think of a worse possible plan.

Anonymous said...

Today the MS Dept. of Health finally recommended wearing masks. Just Wow. There are no limits to the utter incompetence.

Better Than Ever said...

@4:51 I'm not understanding the last part of your comment. The math models, which are really simple for the most part, have been proven, beyond a shadow of a doubt, again and again. You can look at SARS, MERS, Spanish Flu, etc and it's all the same.

We are gaining at 13% of confirmed cases each day in Mississippi. Yes this will trend downward BUT only if measures are taken, more significant measures than we are doing currently.

The math models are a reflection of our behavior. As long as that stays the same, we will increase 13% PER DAY. Even Italy/Spain, which are under STRICT lockdown are still picking up cases at 5% a day.

Pappy Odaniel said...

BTE, do you sell insurance? Or work in economic development ? No one gives a tip about your analysis. Read the site.
They are using China data couple with Italy and form-fitting to NY. Then they extrapolate to all the states. Italy never met their projected levels and they placed less reliance on the Chinese data in this version. This it
cratered. Even with that our Actual numbers are below the low end of the projection. I.e. this projection that is driving decision-making is total garbage...even worse than yours. But politically, we just can’t turn on a dime now and NYC still has a way to go. And even after the feds decide to walk back the stupid it will take a good 24-72 hours to work it’s way down through the Incident Command bureaucracy to dunderheads like GM at the state level. This thing is exactly like the BP oil spill where long after we knew it wasn’t going to be environmental Armageddon the Emergency Mamgares and central planners kept on for weeks with the whole “oh you just wait, just wait, oh the horror to come”

Anonymous said...

I’m not of the notion that this week will all of the sudden will be a surge in cases & hospitalizations in the whole of the U.S. at one time which the IMHE model implies and then it will magically go away.

My thoughts:
Although this virus is highly contagious, it takes time to spread over a geographical area like the United States and it’s territories much of which is based on population density and travel. Then it has to incubate which presents more of a problem considering the total length. Instead of a big spike and a plateau and/or apex and then a slow end to it all, it will come in cluster waves. Said waves will be regional in nature based on the actual way the virus was spread, which is there is no way of knowing currently. I consider this to be the phase 1 wave of mass infections and subsequent deaths in high population areas with travel hubs, both domestically and internationally

Seeing as how we can’t keep the country ‘shut down’ forever, there will continue to be wave cluster ‘breakouts’ until a treatment is found or a vaccine. Unfortunately, and I hope I’m proven wrong, I don’t think the summer heat will kill the wave pattern of infections and deaths.

Anonymous said...

I tried to post this earlier. I have no idea why it wasn't allowed. I'll add that we should celebrate ANY positive news. It may not be absolutely correct, but at the moment, anything good beats more bad, with that said:

Well, all I can say is that I'm a 6'2" 255 lb ex-defensive lineman. I've got two advanced degrees, and what most would say is a fairly serious career which has provided a nice measure of financial reward. IOW, most of the time I am, because I am expected to be, a fairly serious guy. My wife wasn't a lineman, but she has an equally serious education, career and life. Now if you'll excuse us, we are going to go out into our front yard, jump up and down, and squeal like 12-year-old girls at a Taylor Swift concert, just in the off-chance this is even close to good data. Anyone and everyone is invited to do the same damned thing.

MISSISSIPPI: I hope at least most of you are as proud of yourselves, your fellow Mississippians and your state as we are of, well, all of us.

And when we are done acting like children, we are going to go back inside, wash our hands, and stay the hell out of stores, etc. until the battle is over. I'll leave it to your filthy imaginations what else we intend to do.

Anonymous said...

Pappy is kind of fellow I had in mind when I previously wrote that I believe the best case scenario is that shelter in place and social distancing work, and then the “nothingburger” crowd get to claim they were right all along.

Anonymous said...

I'm in absolute shock that at sports medicine I'm not allowed to perform any elective cases. All my cases are elective. This is a massive overreach. I walked my dog in woodland hills yesterday. What did I see? Surgeons out with there families. This sounds great until you look at the financial impact. Look at brasil. Alot of similarities as the US urban cities population... not a big issue with COVID 19. Let's put elective cases on fast track Monday. I did a conference call with some other docs here in Jackson and all agreed we need to fire it up ASAP. Tate, your a bag of hot hair and listening to gov't officials that couldn't hack it in private practice. Open up elective cases now!

Anonymous said...

7:25 is solely concerned about the money that is deferred while we wait out the worst of this pandemic, and seems to have no concern about the greater good for everyone.



XX Confirmed

Medula Oblandala said...

7:25 - You're either a fake or you're not very well versed in your occupation. Not all of the surgeries at Sports Medicine (why don't you capitalize it if you're legit?) are elective.

Several years back, my son was injured in a football game. He was rushed to a local hospital emergency room by a school official, and the next day was operated on by a doctor you claim to work with. His leg, at the knee was bent at a counter-intended 45 degree angle. Are you saying you'd just send him back home to wait? And it's Tate who is the bag of hot air?

Anonymous said...

Now reading that COVID is 'assumed to' or 'potentially' cause or worsen heart conditions.

Anonymous said...

Your not well versed in medicine. Well over 95% of cases at capitol ortho and sports med ate considered elective. Case load is currently under 10%. To you everything is an emergency. Hip replacement knee replacement etc all elective. Your a typical parent of a teenage boy that has a non threatening leg injury.

Kingfish said...

Tell someone who can't walk or is in constant agonizing pain that a replacement knee surgery is elective.

Anonymous said...

"Tell someone who can't walk or is in constant agonizing pain that a replacement knee surgery is elective."

I think you and others may be confusing "elective" with "immediately necessary." While it isn't commonplace, "elective" and "not immediately necessary" surgeries do sometimes have complications, ranging from minor to life-threatening. In a situation like the current COVID pandemic, minor complications can turn life-threatening at an "out of normal range" rate. Moreover, the resource diversion in everything from protective gear (PPE) to hospital space will create a ripple effect. I think, or at least I hope, that if people at least tried to take a moment to consider the actual and potential effects of many things they normally do and can take pretty much for granted, they would have a much better understanding of the situation. And, not for nothing, they would also have a much easier time with things during this situation.

TheClintonscantsuicideusall said...

I'm just glad I had my Ankle Arthroscopy done in mid February by a great surgeon at the MSMOC. Doing well, back at work (essential type) wearing a boot and on crutches (sucks) but what the hell. Most of their stuff is elective with some emergent cases such as the what I took to be a hyperextended knee injury of the young HS lad. By the way, hope he did well. Have had both mine replaced at MSMOC as well.

Anonymous said...

I once suffered a shattered pelvis in an auto accident. I sure am glad my orthopaedic surgeon didn't consider it elective.

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Trollfest '07 was such a success that Jackson Jambalaya will once again host Trollfest '09. Catch this great event which will leave NE Jackson & Fondren in flames. Othor Cain and his band, The Black Power Structure headline the night while Sonjay Poontang returns for an encore performance. Former Frank Melton bodyguard Marcus Wright makes his premier appearance at Trollfest singing "I'm a Sweet Transvestite" from "The Rocky Horror Picture Show." Kamikaze will sing his new hit, “How I sold out to da Man.” Robbie Bell again performs: “Mamas, don't let your babies grow up to be Bells” and “Any friend of Ed Peters is a friend of mine”. After the show, Ms. Bell will autograph copies of her mug shot photos. In a salute to “Dancing with the Stars”, Ms. Bell and Hinds County District Attorney Robert Smith will dance the Wango Tango.

Wrestling returns, except this time it will be a Battle Royal with Othor Cain, Ben Allen, Kim Wade, Haley Fisackerly, Alan Lange, and “Big Cat” Donna Ladd all in the ring at the same time. The Battle Royal will be in a steel cage, no time limit, no referee, and the losers must leave town. Marshand Crisler will be the honorary referee (as it gives him a title without actually having to do anything).

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In the spirit of helping those who are less fortunate, Trollfest '09 adopts a cause for which a portion of the proceeds and donations will be donated: Keeping Frank Melton in his home. The “Keep Frank Melton From Being Homeless” booth will sell chances for five dollars to pin the tail on the jackass. John Reeves has graciously volunteered to be the jackass for this honorable excursion into saving Frank's ass. What's an ass between two friends after all? If Mr. Reeves is unable to um, perform, Speaker Billy McCoy has also volunteered as when the word “jackass” was mentioned he immediately ran as fast as he could to sign up.

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There will be a hugging booth where in exchange for your young son, Frank Melton will give you a loooong hug. Trollfest will have a dunking booth where Muhammed the terrorist will curse you to Allah as you try to hit a target that will drop him into a vat of pig grease. However, in the true spirit of Separate But Equal, Don Imus and someone from NE Jackson will also sit in the dunking booth for an equal amount of time. Tom Head will give a reading for two hours on why he can't figure out who the hell he is. Cliff Cargill will give lessons with his .80 caliber desert eagle, using Frank Melton photos as targets. Tackleberry will be on hand for an autograph session. KIM Waaaaaade will be passing out free titles and deeds to crackhouses formerly owned by The Wood Street Players.

If you get tired come relax at the Fox News Tent. To gain admittance to the VIP section, bring either your Republican Party ID card or a Rebel Flag. Bringing both will entitle you to free drinks.Get your tickets now. Since this is an event for trolls, no ID is required, just bring the hate. Bring the family, Trollfest '07 is for EVERYONE!!!

This is definitely a Beaver production.

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